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27-Mar-2014 21:01
AUSSIE TECHS: Initial Focus Remains On $0.9322-0.9333 Region
*RES 4: $0.9452 - High Nov 19
*RES 3: $0.9333 - High Nov 21
*RES 2: $0.9322 - Rising daily channel top
*RES 1: $0.9268 - Low Nov 12 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.9260 @2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.9249 - Hourly support Mar 27
*SUP 2: $0.9214 - Low Mar 27
*SUP 3: $0.9139 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.9121 - Low Mar 25
*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's close above the 200-DMA has been followed up with fresh
2014 and 4 month highs on Thursday. Bulls are currently targeting the $0.9322-33
region where the rising daily channel top is noted with overall focus on a
continuation higher that targets the $0.9448 Nov 19 high. Bears now look for a
close below Thursday's low to ease the immediate bullish pressure while a close
back below $0.9121 is needed to confirm a break back below the 200-DMA.
27-Mar-2014 21:11
KIWI TECHS: Bulls Targeting Rising Daily Channel Top
*RES 4: $0.8842 - 2011 high Aug 1 2011
*RES 3: $0.8784 - High Aug 2 2011
*RES 2: $0.8778 - Rising daily channel top
*RES 1: $0.8686 - 2014 high Mar 27
*PRICE: $0.8675 @2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.8646 - Hourly support Mar 27
*SUP 2: $0.8620 - Hourly support Mar 27
*SUP 3: $0.8585 - Low Mar 27
*SUP 4: $0.8569 - Low Mar 26
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2014 and 2.5 year highs overnight see bulls firmly targeting
the rising daily channel top coming in around $0.8778 today. Layers of support
have developed in the $0.8504-0.8646 region. Bears now look for a close below
$0.8620 to ease the immediate bullish pressure while a close below the rising
daily channel base ($0.8557) is needed to hint at a deeper correction that
initially targets the $0.8504 level where the 21-DMA is noted.
27-Mar-2014 21:34
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 21-DMA Currently Supporting
*RES 4: NZ$1.0759 - High Mar 7
*RES 3: NZ$1.0744 - 50..0% Fibonacci 1.0535-1.0945
*RES 2: NZ$1.0713 - Hourly resistance Mar 27
*RES 1: NZ$1.0679 - Hourly resistance Mar 27
*PRICE: NZ$1.0674 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0643 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0623 - Low Mar 24
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0600 - Hourly support Mar 21
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0578 - Hourly support Mar 20
*COMMENTARY: The pullback from ahead of the NZ$1.0759 Mar 7 high gives the bears
some comfort although a close below the 21-DMA is needed to hint at a deeper
correction. A close below the 21-DMA sees immediate focus shift to the NZ$1.0623
Mar 24 low and then the NZ$1.0535 level with multiple lows around this level
providing the base for the recent move higher. While the 21-DMA supports, bulls
will look for further tests of the NZ$1.0744-59 region.
27-Mar-2014 21:40
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bullish Pressure Favouring Fresh 2014 High
*RES 4: Y95.93 - 50.0% Fibonacci 105.42-86.43
*RES 3: Y95.67 - Monthly high Oct 22
*RES 2: Y95.48 - 21 week upper Bollinger band
*RES 1: Y94.71 - 2014 high Mar 26
*PRICE: Y94.60 @2100GMT
*SUP 1: Y94.20 - Hourly support Mar 27
*SUP 2: Y93.65 - Low Mar 26
*SUP 3: Y93.25 - Low Mar 25
*SUP 4: Y92.48 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Aussie-yen managed an inside day on Thursday with the rally coming
within a pip or two of the 2014 set on Wednesday. The relatively bullish close
sees pressure on the Y94.71 2014 high with bulls favouring a break above while
the Y93.65 low from Mar 26 supports. Bears need a close below this level to ease
the current bullish pressure while a close below the Y93.25 Mar 25 low is needed
to see focus shift to the Y91.79-92.55 region.
LOOK AHEAD: Japan is first due to release Feb CPI, unemployment rate, and
household spending data at 0830 Tokyo (2330 GMT). February national core CPI
(excluding perishables but including energy) is forecast at +1.3% on year, a
ninth straight year-on-year rise after +1.3% in January while March central
Tokyo core CPI is forecast at +0.9% vs. +0.9% in February. The forecast for the
unemployment rate is 3.7%, unchanged from January. February household spending
is forecast at +0.1% in real terms from a year earlier, a sixth straight
year-on-year rise after +1.1% in January.
Then at 0850 (2350 GMT), we get Feb job offers to seekers ratio and retail sales
data. February retail sales are forecast at +3.1% on year, a seventh straight
year-on-year rise after +4.4% in January. The job offers to seekers index is
seen at 1.05, up from 1.04 in January and remaining the highest level since
August 2007.