1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Dzisiaj sprzedaż nowych domów w USA. Jak sądzicie sprzedaż spadnie? Jak będę próbował coś sprzedac o 16:00 o ile będą gorsze dane.. Zastanawia mnie też co będzie z Crude Oil po ostatnich tak dużych zapasach.
EUROPE: The FT says a eurozone deal over the bank bailouts is in doubt,
following a meeting by Dutch German and Finnish Finance Ministers, as
the issue of legacy assets hits a hurdle.
SPAIN: Markets are again unnerved over Spain headlines in the morning
press, with highlights again on the Spanish auterity protests and the
Catalan regional elections, called early and to be held in November.
UK: U.K. data starts at 0830GMT with the release of the Bank of England
Credit Conditions Survey for the third quarter. This is followed at
1000GMT with the release of the September CBI Distributive Trades
Survey. Recent retail sales surveys, including the official data from
the ONS have shown trading conditions remain tough for retailers as
consumer confidence remains at a low ebb as real incomes continue to get
squeezed. Accordingly, analysts expect only a mild improvement in the
CBI survey's reported sales balance in September.
UK PRESS: The Euro Area is in a period of "tranquility," helped by the
ECB bond-buying program, former UK PM Gordon Brown says, the Telegraph
reports. However, Brown warns the block will struggle to resolve more
fundamental problems as it moves towards a fiscal union and the costs
associated with such a move.
US: The US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the
MBA Mortgage Application Index for the Sept 21 week. At 1400GMT, U.S.
August New Home Sales numbers will hit screens. The pace of new home
sales is expected to rise to a 380,000 annual rate in August after the
3.6% rise in July. Also in the US, at 1430GM,T, EIA Crude Oil Stocks
data are released.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2905 after rate had pulled back from
session highs at $1.2971 to $1.2897 as rate tracked the negative
reversal on Wall St, as well as reaction to anti-austerity protests in
Spain. Rate pivoted $1.2900 in early Asian trade, edging to session
highs at $1.2913 before turning lower on reported euro-yen sales.
Traders that took long positions, ahead of reported strong demand at
$1.2890, placed stops below $1.2885. These stops were triggered as a
major US name sold from above $1.2900. The added weight took rate down
to lows of $1.2864 before meeting willing buyers that cushioned the
move. Recovery efforts remained shallow ahead of the European open, with
rate currently trading around $1.2874 at writing. Demand seen into
$1.2860 with more stops below. Regional and pan-German inflation
provides the data interest on the day. Headlines remain a key market
driver, with focus set on developments in Spain and Greece (general
strike in Greece today). A break of $1.2860 to expose next band of
demand between $1.2850-30, the 200-dma close behind at $1.2827.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3000 Medium offers/Option expiry
$1.2990 Monday Sep24 high $1.2970/80 Medium offers/$1.2971 Sep25 high
$1.2950 Option expiry
$1.2913 Int.Day high Asia (NY $1.29365) $1.2910 Option expiry
$1.2866 ***Current mkt rate 0609GMT Wednesday
$1.2862 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.28645
$1.2860 Medium demand/Stops $1.2850/30 Strong demand/Option expiry $1.2850
$1.2827 Tech 200-dma
$1.2816 Wednesday Sep12 low $1.2810/00 Medium demand/CTA stops on break
$1.2770/50 Medium demand $1.2675 Large option expiry
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6196 after pulling back from a late recovery
high at $1.6262 (had seen decreasing highs of $1.6267 and $1.6264
during the session) to a session low of $1.6181. This move saw
euro-sterling extend its recovery off European morning lows of stg0.7936
to stg0.79855. Cable stepped its way to an early recovery high of
$1.6209 in early Asia before rate turned lower. Euro-yen sales, as well
as a corrective pullback in Aussie and Kiwi, provided a fresh risk
aversion tone which weighed, cable easing back to pivot around $1.6200.
Strong sales of euro-dollar took cable down with it, the rate breaking
below its Sep20 low at $1.6164, with the triggering of stops below
$1.6160 extended the move to $1.6150. Profit take demand greeted the
dip, with rate trading around $1.171 into early Europe. Euro-sterling
traded between stg0.79565-0.7970 in Asia, currently around stg0.7963.
Sterling continues to take direction from risk though end of week
euro-sterling orders (EU CAP payment to the UK opposed in part by end
month Buba demand) and position adjustments into month end also affect.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading moderately higher Wednesday after
posting some marginal losses during the previous day. Spot gold ended
Tuesday's session $3.80 lower at $1760.65/oz as prices remained in
corrective mode after a stronger showing from the US dollar, which
extended after Charles Prosser, president of the Philadelphia Federal
Reserve, criticized the latest wave of bond purchases from the US
Federal Reserve, saying that additional easing was unlikely to be
effective. The comments extended losses observed in some commodity
markets and underpinned US dollar prices for the remainder of the
session. Spot gold prices have tentatively edged their way back higher
so far this morning, picking up from an intra-day low of $1759.15 to
highs of $1765.20, amid fairly light trading volume. Spot gold is
currently trading $1762.90 a troy ounce, up $2.25 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading in negative territory
Wednesday extending their losses from the previous session. November WTI
futures ended Tuesday's session 56 cents lower at $91.37 a barrel amid
concerns over weak demand and rising inventories. According to data
published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) after Tuesday's
settlement, US crude stockpiles rose 335,000 barrels last week, against
market expectations for a rise of 900,000 barrels. Market attention now
turns to weekly US oil inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) due to be published at 1430GMT, where analysts
expect a 1.6mln barrel rise in crude oil stocks. November WTI prices
initially edged back higher to highs of $91.34 a barrel during Asian
traded hours, but have since retreated back to session lows of $90.73,
with the market currently seen trading $90.89 a barrel, down 48 cents on
the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading around
unchanged levels Wednesday, with the market in consolidation mode after
another day of gains the previous day. October natural gas futures,
which expire today, ended Tuesday's session up 8.7 cents, or 3.1%, at
$2.924 per million British thermal units (Btu) after trading between
$2.843 and $2.943. November futures posted a close at $3.105 per mln
Btu. Prices remain underpinned by some short covering ahead of the
October futures expiry later today after October options expired during
the previous session. Market participants expect buyers to retain an air
of caution until cooler temperatures arrive to stir more heating load,
particularly with storage and production running at or near record
highs. November natural gas futures have been tied to a narrow range so
far this morning, paring back from an intra-day high of $3.124 to a
session low of $3.105, with the market currently marginally higher at
$3.109 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Sep 26 Italy T-bill auction
- Sep 26 Greek 24-hr national strike
- Sep 27 Spain preliminary Budget Announcement
- Sep 27 Italy BTP/CCT month-end auctions
- Sep 28 Spain Bank Recapitalisation announcement
- Sep 28 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Sep 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.5bln
- Sep 30 Ireland bond redemption for E18.4mln
- Sep 30 Spain deadline for Moody's downgrade review (end Sep latest)
- Oct 02 Austria Bond Auction
- Oct 04 Spain bond auction
- Oct 05 Italy dollar bond redemption for $2.5bln
- Oct 08 Slovenia Presidential elections
- Oct 08 Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 09 EcoFin Meeting in Luxembourg
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Kondek - wg mnie dane posłużą, żeby dorzucić do pieca.
- więc podbitka - i znów jazda z trendem.
Nieco poniżej jest trochę dużych zleceń więc tam odbiją. Okazja by sobie pomierzyć.
(wyszedłem już z kabla i czekam na kolejną okazję )
EURUSD - 1.2855/50 - strong demand - co do pipsa ten poziom został dotknięty - można zaryzykować skalp od tych poziomów. ze stopem poniżej tego poziomu.
Ostatnio zmieniony 26 wrz 2012, 08:37 przez marekdt, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
Premier Hiszpanii Mariano Rajoy poinformował w środę, że jest gotów zwrócić się o kolejną pomoc dla swojego kraju ale tylko jeśli koszty finansowania długu pozostaną zbyt wysokie przez zbyt długi okres.
Poinformował również, że zamierza powołać nową niezależną instytucję, która będzie monitorowała budżet Hiszpanii i starania czynione w celu obniżenia długu. A wszystko to w ramach nowego zestawu reform strukturalnych, który ma zostać ogłoszony jeszcze w tym tygodniu.
"Mogę zapewnić w 100%, że chciałbym poprosić o tą pomoc", powiedział Rajoy Wall Street Journal.
> www <<- forex:)
)