China’s GDP disappoints at 8.1%
Written by Sean Lee
April 13, 2012 at 04:17 GMT
China Q1 GDP 8.1% Vs expectations of 8.4% (and rumours of 9.0%)
China stats bureau: Inflation still an issue
MAS tightens Singaporean monetary policy
Bank of Korea keeps rates on hold
North Korea launches rocket, which crashes into sea after very short flight
BOJ March meeting minutes
UK house prices on the rise: Rightmove
Australian Greens Party leader resigns, does not endanger minority government agreement
Rules tighten on Chinese investment abroad
Nikkei +1.2%; HK +1.6%; Shanghai +0.25%
Gold $1676/oz; Oil $103.50/bbl
The overnight rumours of 9.0% Chinese GDP growth proved totally false and the AUD/USD dropped 50 pips immediately after the number, before stalling ahead of solid bids near 1.0400. These were eventually filled and further AUD/NZD stop-loss selling saw the AUD/USD post session lows below 1.0380. Ranges: 1.0378/1.0451
The NZD was the surprising mover in early trade, as buying flows against the AUD firstly, and then the JPY, drove the NZD to session highs near .8318 before it fell back also on the Chinese data.
USD/JPY edged higher early when risk sentiment was at its most positive but it fell back after the Chinese data. The North Korean rocket launch had no effect. Ranges: 80.83/81.19.
EUR/USD has been led by the regional currencies inside a 1.3163/1.3201 range. Cable 1.5935/69; EUR/CHF 1.2010/20
USD/KRW closed in NY at 1135 and after the failed North Korean rocket launch and strong early risk sentiment, it fell to 1131 before recovering after the Chinese GDP. USD/SGD fell sharply in early trade after the MAS surprise and the SGD continues to outperform on the Asian crosses. Ranges: 1131/1135.50; 1.2458/1.2524
Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)
"...wyniki z przeszlosci wcale nie daja gwarancji zyskow w przyszlosci"...
S usd/jpy 80.89 (13.04.2011 godz 9.03)
S/L 80.99
TP 80.69
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pozycja zamknieta z reki strata -7pipek
S/L 80.99
TP 80.69
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pozycja zamknieta z reki strata -7pipek
nowa pozycja L aud/usd 1.0404 (13.04.2012 godz 12.32)
S/L 1.0382
TP 1.0450
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zamkniete z reki 1.0398 strata -6pipek
S/L 1.0382
TP 1.0450
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zamkniete z reki 1.0398 strata -6pipek
nowa pozycja S eur/usd 1.3140 (13.04.2012 godz 14.37)
S/L 1.3155
TP 1.3085
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przestawilem TP na 1.3045
przestawiony S/L 1.3105 zabezpieczony zysk +35pipek
pozycja zamknieta z reki 1.3076 zysk +64pipki
S/L 1.3155
TP 1.3085
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
przestawilem TP na 1.3045
przestawiony S/L 1.3105 zabezpieczony zysk +35pipek
pozycja zamknieta z reki 1.3076 zysk +64pipki
Ostatnio zmieniony 13 kwie 2012, 21:57 przez andy11, łącznie zmieniany 4 razy.
April 13, 2012, 8:41 a.m. ET
China's Growth Slows to 8.1%
BEIJING—China's first-quarter economic growth slowed to a lower-than-expected 8.1%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009, as a slowdown in exports and real-estate investment complicated China's efforts to guide its economy to a soft landing.
China's growth was still above the 7.5% target set by the government, and its economy remains a bright spot in a world economy looking for drivers. China's resilient growth and strong public finances stand in contrast to the U.S. and Europe, where unemployment remains elevated and high public debt limits the scope for a stimulus.
But the 8.1% figure—compared with expectations of 8.3% growth according to economist surveys—is a marked slowdown from 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011.
The release of the growth figure, by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Friday morning in Beijing, comes as China already shows signs of moving policy more toward supporting growth, continuing its shift away from taming inflation.
Song Yu, China economist at Goldman Sachs, said the growth rate was disappointing. "Growth in the first two months was weak. We had some loosening of monetary and fiscal policy in March but it wasn't enough to save the quarterly number," he said.
Still, an increase in the contribution of consumption to growth provided a positive counterpoint. Consumption contributed 76% to GDP growth in the first quarter, up sharply from 51.6% in 2011. The share from investment—including infrastructure, real estate and other big projects—fell to 33.4% from 54.2%. Those numbers suggest that attempts to rebalance growth away from dependence on capital spending and toward a bigger role for consumption may already be showing results.
Markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong were mildly positive Friday morning, in part reflecting the belief that the government could move more aggressively to ease policy by boosting lending. The Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up 1.5%.
First-quarter performance is of concern to foreign companies and economies dependent on supplying China with raw materials.
Residential property sales were down 15.5% year-to-year in the first quarter, as the government's efforts to tame high house prices took a toll. Weak demand threatens a further deceleration in the housing construction that is China's main domestic driver of growth.
A spokesman for China Vanke Co., China's biggest real estate developer by revenue, said the company would adopt a cautious approach to investment. "When it comes to new projects we will be following the principle that it is better to miss an opportunity than to make a mistake," the spokesman said.
Companies dependent on real-estate construction are feeling the effects. Last month, an executive from mining giant BHP Billiton BHP +3.44% said China's demand for iron ore, used in steelmaking, is flattening out, which hurt markets. The Australian dollar, which fell 5% in March, has continued to slide in April, partly on fears of reduced Chinese commodity demand.
Even a moderate slowdown in China's growth will leave some sectors facing an overcapacity problem.
David Beatenbough, vice president of research and development for Guangxi LiuGong Machinery Co., 000528.SZ +2.02% a major Chinese construction-equipment maker, said the industry is rife with overcapacity, with about 100 manufacturers of wheel loaders alone. "There will be a strengthening of strong players," Mr. Beatenbough said, "and some of the weak ones will be eliminated."
Inflation in March rose, with the Consumer Price Index up 3.6% compared with a year earlier, from 3.2% in February. But analysts expect prices to trend lower in the months ahead—giving the government more room for policy maneuvering.
There are already signs of a shift to support growth. New lending rose sharply in March, with the banks issuing 1.01 trillion yuan in new loans ($160 billion), up from 710 billion yuan in February. Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, saw this as a leading indicator that investment and growth should rebound in the second quarter.
Public spending also appears to be swinging into pro-growth mode. In a note to clients, Ms. Wang says that fiscal deposits fell sharply in March, a sign that the government is moving quickly to disperse funds to public projects. Higher public investment will take up some of the slack from lower spending by private real-estate developers.
"...wyniki z przeszlosci wcale nie daja gwarancji zyskow w przyszlosci"...
April 13, 2012, 8:58 a.m. ET
Consumer Prices Rise
U.S. consumer-price growth slowed a bit in March, as energy inflation decelerated from the breakneck pace earlier this year.
The consumer-price index, which measures how much Americans pay for everything from cereal to automobiles, climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from the previous month and 2.7% from a year ago, the Labor Department said Friday. Both figures were slightly down from February.
Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% from February and 2.3% year over year. Energy prices, including gasoline, rose at a much slower clip than in previous months.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.2% rise for both overall consumer prices and core prices.
The Federal Reserve has a target of 2.0% annual inflation. Slower inflation could boost the chances of the Fed taking further action, such as another round of bond-buying, to stimulate economic growth.
Friday's report showed Americans' real average hourly earnings fell 0.1% for the third consecutive month, as a rise in wages was offset by higher prices. Prices rose in most categories, save for declines in cereals, fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products. Energy prices, which had risen 3.2% in February, rose only 0.9% in March. Gasoline prices were still up 9% year over year, but that was still much lower than the prior month's inflation rate. Utility pipe gasoline service dropped from the prior year.
Rents continued to climb. Used vehicle prices rose for the first time in months.
Without rounding, the CPI report showed that consumer prices rose 0.291% in March from February. Excluding food and energy items, prices were up 0.230% without rounding.
"...wyniki z przeszlosci wcale nie daja gwarancji zyskow w przyszlosci"...