1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
nowy1234 pisze:Uwaga-w nocy nastąpilo pogorszenie sytuacji na edku,bastion 1.3060 pada....................
niepadł jeszcze, ostatnie zasieki trzymają.... scenariusz na do 14:30, londyn z berlinem i brukselą wyciąga edwarda, ale krótko maks 30685 - 3070, a po dobrych danych od jankesów umocnienie dolara, .... jak to mowi jeden z forum, rynek zweryfikuje
Jutro też jest dzień.
Trend is Your Friend... a setup Twoja stara!
Witam wszystkich serdecznie. Prawda jest taka, że trzeba być nieźle ukierunkowanym debilem, żeby zarobić milion dolarów. - A. Ostrowski
nowy1234 pisze:no nie przesadzaj ze do 14.30 bedziemy sie poruszac w przedziale 3060-70
a masz lepsze pomysły? ... nikt już nie ma chyba siły bronic 3060, mysle tu o Londku przede wszystkim, ale do danych nie ruszą mocniej w dół.... dane z usa będą ok wydaje się i to będzie impuls do umocnienia dolca, ale i tak chyba nie na dlugo
Jutro też jest dzień.
Trend is Your Friend... a setup Twoja stara!
Witam wszystkich serdecznie. Prawda jest taka, że trzeba być nieźle ukierunkowanym debilem, żeby zarobić milion dolarów. - A. Ostrowski
EUROPE: /UK: A much quieter calendar on Wednesday, with only limited data
expected and a dearth of central bank speakers. The European calendar gets
underway from 0610GMT, with the release of the July GFK consumer confidence
numbers. Economists are looking for a number of 6.5, unchanged from the June
number, although recent surveys could suggest a surprise to the upside. At
0930GMT, the BOE June FPC Stability Report will be released. At 1130GMT, the UK
Chancellor George Osborne will outline the latest 4-year spending plans to
Parliament, again seen centring on further public sector spending cuts.
ITALY: Italy faces "billions of euros" in losses on derivatives trades
restructured at the height of the euro crisis, the FT says, citing an Italian
Treasury report.
UK: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles says that
quantitative easing could be unwound smoothly, as central banks' asset sales in
well functioning markets should have less impact than buying assets in
dysfunctional ones. The sharp market sell-off last week in response to Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raising the possibility of slowing asset purchases
has put the spotlight back on the problems central banks could face exiting
their ultra-loose policy stance. Miles, however, says that there is no need to
rush to normalise policy and when QE is unwound it could happen smoothly.
UK PRESS: The Telegraph notes four more UK high street retailers, including
ModelZone, have filed to appoint administrators, putting as many as 2,000 jobs
at risk. The news again seems to come as quarterly rent payments are due for
major retail organisations.
UK PRESS: With the Chancellor's spending review due later today, the FT looks at
the departments likely to be losers. The paper notes that health, schools and
overseas aid are ring-fenced, along with pensions protected by the
"triple-lock". It says the foreign office, culture, local government and
justice are likely to be hit hard again, following cuts in 2011.
US/CANADA: The US calendar gets underway from 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA
Mortgage Index for the June 21 week. This will be closely watched for any
reaction to the sharp back-up in bond yields in recent weeks. At 1200GMT, the
May Building Permits Revision numbers are set for release. The main release will
be the latest revision of the first quarter growth data. First quarter GDP is
expected to be unrevised at a 2.4% rate of growth, while the chain price index
is expected to be unrevised at +1.1%. Analysts have already looked ahead to the
second quarter. At 1400GMT, US Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard
Fisher and Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker will testify
on Dodd-Frank legislation to House Financial Services Committee, in Washington.
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the June 21 week will be released at 1430GMT. Bank
of Canada Deputy Gov. Timothy Lane will give a speech to the Toronto CFA Society
at 1640GMT.
EURO SUMMARY: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.3082 (back above its 55-, 100-, and
200-dma levels) after rate had corrected off a session low of $1.3065, that base
seen following the release of stronger than expected US durable goods data,
followed later by improved consumer confidence data, before rate corrected back
to $1.3104 then drifted off into the close. This downside correction continued
into early Asia, the rate pressing down to $1.3071 before edging back to
$1.3087. Fresh selling emerged into the Asian afternoon which took rate through
Tuesday's low of $1.3065, with momentum able to ease it just under Monday's low
of $1.3059 to $1.3057 before reported demand placed between $1.3060/50 cushioned
the move and allowed for a minor recovery to $1.3070. Rate settled between
$1.3060/70 on approach to the European open. Mentioned demand placed between
$1.3060/50 said to include interest from sovereigns and European corps. The
close above the mentioned moving averages, today at $1.3081 55-dma, $1.3077
100-dma and $1.3074 200-dma seen providing some underlying buoyancy. Resistance
$1.3100/10, stops $1.3110-20 ahead of offers $1.3130/40 with more stops above.
Stronger offers from $1.3150 through to $1.3165. A fairly dull calendar.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Tuesday at $1.5423 after rate had pulled
back off intraday highs of $1.5480 to $1.5397, as the dollar gained a general
boost on the back of strong durable goods and a decent improvement in US
consumer confidence, before edging back to $1.5436, then drifted off into the
close. Sterling proved to be more resilient than the euro to dollar gains as the
cross was pressed to extended lows of stg0.8471, the rate consolidating this
move in Asia between stg0.8471-0.84875. Cable extended its late drift lower into
Asia, the rate easing off to $1.5404 before edging back to $1.5423. Rate then
dropped back to retest those lows before bouncing back to $1.5426 ahead of the
European open, with the cross holding just off session lows, stg0.84735 at
posting. BOE MPC Miles due to speak this morning at 0800GMT ahead of the BOE
Financial Stability Report at 0930GMT. UK Chancellor Osborne to announce
government spending at 1130GMT. MS end month model suggests that cable should
see demand interest at Friday's fixings, the view supported by equity and bond
activity during the month. Cable support seen between $1.5405/1.5395 with stops
placed below $1.5390. Next support$1.5385/75. Resistance $1.5450/60, $1.5480.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Tuesday at Y97.87 after rate had recovered
off an intraday low of Y96.95 to Y98.03, the move aided by the release of
stronger than expected US durable goods data, as well as US consumer confidence
showing decent improvement. Rate drifted back to Y97.68 during the US afternoon
before recovering into the close. This recovery picked up stronger momentum into
the Asian session, the move taking the rate to extended highs of Y98.24 before
meeting decent headwind supply. Asian traders noted talk of strong European
offers placed at Y98.25, as well as highlighting large option strike expiries
for today's Tokyo and NY cuts at Y98.25 and Y98.30. Rate reversed off highs as
the Shanghai Index again turned lower, taking dollar-yen to Y97.65. Rate managed
to recover to Y97.92 before heavier selling emerged ahead of the European open
to take rate down to Y97.47, after stops Y97.50 were triggered, the rate holding
heavy at posting. Again moves during the Asian session coming from equity market
moves, with interest turning to UST yields into the NY session.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Wednesday, again unable
to hold early gains. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 135.33 points, or 1.04%, at
12834.01. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 6.91 points at
1071.75. Market breadth indicators saw 94 issues higher, 123 lower and 8
unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.43 bn shares.
AUSSIE: Is steady at $0.9262 (vs U.S. close) after trading in the $0.9236 to
$0.9276 range so far in Asian trades today. No confirmation yet on whether there
will be special caucus meeting and a leadership ballot to oust PM Julia Gillard
with reports so far citing sources that a petition for a meeting is being
circulated. AFR reports sources close to Kevin Rudd say he would be prepared to
challenge Gillard. Aussie hasn't reacted specifically to such reports today as
general view (also suggested by polls) is that there will be change of
government at the September elections, so it doesn't matter who leads the labor
party.
AUSTRALIA PRESS: The Australian Financial Review has been told Foreign Minister
Bob Carr, a keen Rudd supporter, has postponed by one day plans to travel to
Indonesia. This means he will be in Canberra on Thursday and able to vote for Mr
Rudd if there is a spill. After a day of political turmoil with two Independents
announcing their retirement at the upcoming elections, and a narrow defeat of
the Opposition's move to suspend standing orders (74 to 73) and calls for an
early election, it seems tomorrow looms as D-Day for the Gillard team. There
will be little market reaction to the widely expected spill, with offshore
events seemingly more influential than a domestic leadership dispute.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Italy will be the final Eurozone sovereign to come to
the T-bill market on Wednesday, with plans to issue E8.0bln in new 6-month Dec
31, 2013 BOT. To recap issuance so far this week, on Monday, Germany sold
E2.37bln 12-month Bubill at average yield 0.1229%. In the afternoon France sold
E4.192bln 3-month BTF at average yield 0.065%, E1.51bln 6-month BTF at average
yield 0.095% and E1.765bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.244%. On Tuesday
Spain sold E934mln 3-month Letra at average yield 0.869% and sold E2.141bln
9-month Letra at average yield 1.441%.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There are no Eurozone sovereign bond issuance Wednesday, with
Italy conducting its regular month-end auction, which includes tap of benchmark
5-year 3.50% June 2018 BTP and a 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for between
E2.0bln-E2.5bln size each, on Thursday. Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the
eurozone this week is estimated to come in around E17.21bln vs E19.64bln sold
last week. So far, Belgium tapped its 1.25% June 2018 OLO69, 3.00% Sep 2019,
OLO67, 2.25% June 2023 OLO68 and 4.50% Mar 2026 OLO64 issues for combined size
of E2.708bln. On Tuesday Netherlands sold E6.1bln in new 5-year 1.25% Jan 2019.
Italy sold E3.5bln zero coupon June 2015 CTZ and sold 5-year 1.70% Sep 2015
BTPei, 15-year 3.10% Sep 2026 BTPei for a combined size of E1.0bln. In terms of
reinvestment flows, there are no redemption payments and coupon payments from
Belgium E0.4bln, Italy E0.1bln and Austria E0.1bln -- to leave net cash flow
negative to the tune of E16.6bln vs -E18.4bln last week. For full details of
forthcoming issues, please see eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net
Cash Flow Matrix.
Ostatnio zmieniony 26 cze 2013, 08:15 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
... nikt już nie ma chyba siły bronic 3060, mysle tu o Londku przede wszystkim, ale do danych nie ruszą mocniej w dół.... dane z usa będą ok wydaje się i to będzie impuls do umocnienia dolca, ale i tak chyba nie na dlugo 
