1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
***************************
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
No jutro dane lepsze bardzo prawdopodobne i rzeczywiście znów mogą cofnąć, choć jak zauważyliście poprzebijane niby ważne miejsca te świece, więc tak mało to pasuje. Najbezpieczniej BUY Stopa, bez gry na spadki, duże pieniądze już sobie poszlī spać i dlatego taki zamęt na rynku, szybko kasujemy zysk i do jutra...
Tak by pasowało aby do danych podjechali do 37 i potem cofka te sześćdziesiąt kilka pipów.
Ciekawie zacznie się (podobnie jak w tym tygodniu) otwarcie w Poniedziałek - szczególnie na Jenach - dane.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
No jutro dane lepsze bardzo prawdopodobne i rzeczywiście znów mogą cofnąć, choć jak zauważyliście poprzebijane niby ważne miejsca te świece, więc tak mało to pasuje. Najbezpieczniej BUY Stopa, bez gry na spadki, duże pieniądze już sobie poszlī spać i dlatego taki zamęt na rynku, szybko kasujemy zysk i do jutra...
Tak by pasowało aby do danych podjechali do 37 i potem cofka te sześćdziesiąt kilka pipów.
Ciekawie zacznie się (podobnie jak w tym tygodniu) otwarcie w Poniedziałek - szczególnie na Jenach - dane.
Ciapul pisze:wczorajszy wzrost euro spowodowany był wyprzedażą niemieckich obligacji....
Dlatego ja sie nie tykam edka odkad poplynalem 14% depo w pazdzierniku na nim. Polowe listopada odzyskiwalem ta kase wiec teraz ta para gosci u mnie w mt4 jedynie w charakterze informacyjnym.
Dziwie sie dlaczego umocnienie dolca nie mialo wczoraj miejsca i w sumie po wczorajszym dniu nie zdziwie sie jak beda dalej go oslabiac. Mam dosc duzego shorta na kablu od 1.639 od wczoraj i trzymam. Pozycja jest zabezpieczona i zadnych innych decyzji juz dzis raczej nie podejme bo kompletnie nie mam koncepcji na rynek... jeszcze mamy tyle danych do tego ;]
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 06 ECB Nowotny at Austria central bank press conference
- Dec 06 ECB Asmussen at Handelsblatt Research Institute in Berlin
- Dec 06 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Dec 09 Eurogroup meeting
- Dec 09 Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence data
- Dec 10 ECOFIN meeting
- Dec 10 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
- Dec 11 Italy T-bill auction
- Dec 11 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Dec 12 ECB monthly report
- Dec 12 Italy mid-month BTP auction cancelled
- Dec 13 Slovenian bank stress test results due
- Dec 16 IMF to publish preliminary results on Spanish bank review
- Dec 17 German Dec ZEW business survey
- Dec 17 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
EURO SUMMARY: The euro traded a $1.3543 to $1.3677 range last night in the US in
the wake of the ECB's decision and President Mario Draghi's comments. It started
at $1.3667 this morning in the Asia-Pacific and then turned away from last
night's high to trade a $1.3662 low. Trade has been relatively subdued so far,
with the focus turning to tonight's US payrolls data. Euro-dollar managed a weak
recovery off the low around midmorning, but was stuck near $1.3670 since then.
Euro-dollar was last traded at $1.3668, with immediate support eyed at
$1.3630/20, moderate offers building at the latter mark and further bids have
since been spotted from $1.3590/85. Sell orders are mostly clustered near
$1.3700 while fair-sized stops are also expected on any break of the $1.3730/35
region, according to dealers.
06-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Eye 76.4% At $1.3706 Despite O/B Daily Studies
RES 4: $1.3786 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.3742 Low Oct 23
RES 2: $1.3706/11 76.4% $1.3832-1.3296, Reversal high Jan 2013
RES 1: $1.3681/84 Reversal high Apr 2007, Daily Bolli top
LATEST PRICE: $1.3659
SUP 1: $1.3627/34 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296, Channel base
SUP 2: $1.3598 High Oct 14
SUP 3: $1.3568 55-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.3514/28 Nov 7 support line, 21-DMA
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar pops above the Nov 29 high and 61.8%, former resistance
at $1.3622/27, and now trades just below Apr 2007 reversal high at $1.3681.
Bulls eye break above to test 76.4% of $1.3832-1.3296, further res at $1.3706.
However, daily studies still overbought and bears eye a retest of channel base
at $1.3634. But weekly studies may turn higher and monthly studies still carry a
bullish tone - break above $1.3700 level targets retest of $1.3832.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.3830/35 Strong offers/$1.3833 61.8% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12/Oct25 high
$1.3810/20 Medium offers
$1.3800 Medium offers on approach/Stops
$1.3780/85 Medium offers/$1.3785 pre FOMC release high
$1.3750 Strong offers
$1.3730/40 Medium offers/$1.3739 Oct31 high
$1.3690/710 Strong offers/$1.3706 76.4% $1.3833-1.3295/RM offers $1.3710-12
$1.3677 Dec5 high (matched cloud top, today at $1.3653)
$1.3675 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3660 ***Current mkt rate 0646GMT Friday
$1.3657 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3653 Cloud top (capped Dec5 at $1.3677)
$1.3650/40 Medium demand (broken resistance Thursday)/Stops
$1.3610 Medium demand/Stops
$1.3590 Medium demand/$1.3585-70 Stops
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.6335 after rate had been
pressed off intraday highs of $1.6404 to $1.6301 on the back of a strong
recovery in the euro following ECB Draghi's less than dovish press conference,
which saw euro-sterling push to a session high of stg0.8379, with the release of
strong US data also weighing against the pound via cable. Chancellor Osborne's
Autumn Statement delivered the improved growth forecasts but was seem by some as
not as strong as had been expected. Cable touched an early high of $1.6342 into
early Asia before rate settled through the morning between $1.6330/40 before
easing to $1.6319 ahead of the European open. Euro-sterling consolidated its
Thursday rally between stg0.83635-0.83705 in Asia. Markets through Asia was seen
in the usual subdued pre-NFP activity with the release of this data to provide
the next directional impetus (traders basing outlook for US QE tapering on the
released number). Offers remain in place between $1.6340/50, a break to open a
move toward $1.6365 ahead of $1.6380 and stronger area between $1.6400/05.
Support remains into $1.6300, more between $1.6280/70 with stops below.
Euro-sterling offers stg0.8380, stg0.8400. Bids stg0.8330/20.
06-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bears Eye July Support Line At $1.6063
RES 4: $1.6443 High Dec 2
RES 3: $1.6401/044 Highs Mar 2011, Dec 4
RES 2: $1.6370 Nov 13 support line
RES 1: $1.6358 5-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.6322
SUP 1: $1.6301/04 Low Dec 5, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
SUP 2: $1.6260 High Oct 1
SUP 3: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
SUP 4: $1.6194/6200 21-DMA, High Nov 21
COMMENTARY: Cable passes through the Nov 13 support line to test the 23.6% of
$1.5855-1.6443 - key initial support at $1.6304. A break below here could start
a move to the key July support line, now at $1.6063. Daily studies are reversing
lower and weekly studies remain overbought/bearish - ahead of Jul support line
is the 38.2% at $1.6218 and 55-DMA at $1.6123. However, monthly studies point
higher and retest of Nov support line could see break to Dec 2 high at $1.6443.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6450 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
$1.6437-43 Dec3-Dec2 highs
$1.6410 Stops
$1.6400/05 Strong offers/$1.6405-03 Dec4-5 highs
$1.6380 Medium offers
$1.6360/65 Medium offers
$1.6342 Int.Day high Asia
$1.6321 ***Current market rate 0659GMT Friday
$1.6319 Int.Day low Asia
$1.6300 Medium demand/Dec5 low
$1.6280/70 Medium demand/Large stops $1.6270
$1.6260/55 Strong demand
$1.6240 Medium demand/Stops
$1.6220 Medium demand
$1.6198 Nov27 low
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8464 Weds Nov13 high (seen in Asia)
stg0.8440 Medium offers
stg0.8415/20 Strong offers/Stops
stg0.8395/400 Medium offers
stg0.8383-87 61.8% stg0.8464-0.8252-Nov27 high/stg0.8391 Nov26 high
stg0.8380 Medium offers/stg0.8379 Dec5 high (ECB Draghi react)
stg0.83715 Int.Day high Europe, Asia stg0.83705
stg0.8367 ***Current market rate 0710GMT Friday
stg0.83635 Int.Day low Asia
stg0.8350 Medium demand
stg0.8330/20 Strong demand/Stops
stg0.8300/290 Medium demand
stg0.8274 Dec4 low
stg0.8260/50 Strong demand/stg0.8258 Dec3 low/stg0.8252 Dec2 low
stg0.8250 Option barrier/Strong demand ahead
YEN SUMMARY: Opens at Y101.79 and then slips to an early low of Y101.63, almost
matching last night's Y101.62 US session low before bouncing again to Y101.77,
just about where it had started the day. Some talk earlier of strong bids
sitting at Y101.50 managed to contain the move lower, halting its just shy of
rumored stops lower. The pair initially failed to break above the morning high
of Y101.82 on the rebound but eventually cleared that for a high of Y101.99.
Euro-yen meanwhile started at Y139.12 and tracked dollar-yen's brief retreat, to
trade a Y138.95 low. The cross also rebounded after that, getting up to Y139.36
before euro weakness capped the move. Dollar-yen was last at Y101.82 while
euro-yen was at Y139.12. While the Y102.83 level caps dollar-yen, potential
remains for a deeper correction that targets the Y99.10 level that supported in
early Nov. The immediate downside focus is on a retest of the Y100.95 low from
Nov 22. There are immediate offers in dollar-yen atop the morning high, at
Y102.20 and Y102.40, dealers say.
06-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Look To Hold Below Tenkan At Y102.26
RES 4: Y103.38 High Dec 3
RES 3: Y102.89 High May 21
RES 2: Y102.50 Nov 8 channel base
RES 1: Y102.26 Daily Tenkan line
LATEST PRICE: Y102.14
SUP 1: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8
SUP 2: Y101.02/18 21-DMA, 38.2% of Y97.62-103.38
SUP 3: Y100.50 50.0% of Y97.62-103.38 & Daily Kijun
SUP 4: Y99.82 61.8% of Y97.62-103.38
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen recovers some of the recent losses to trade back above
the former 23.6% at Y102.02 - initial resistance now seen at Y102.26, the daily
Tenkan line. Daily studies are still bearish but further gains would encourage
bulls as weekly studies show signs of slowing but yet to reverse. However,
downside channel breakout targets a move to Y100.92 which is just below 21-DMA
at Y101.02 and failure at resistance likely confirms the start of a correction.
DOLLAR-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y103.50 Strong Offers on approach/Barrier
Y103.38 Dec3 high
Y103.20 Strong offers (Y103.13 - 2 Dec high)
Y102.85/00 Medium offers/Y103.05 Stops
Y102.84 Dec4 high
Y102.70 Minor offers
Y102.40-50 Strong offers/Y102.50 large expiry/Y102.55 Stops
Y102.20/25 Medium offers
Y102.21 Int.Day high Europe, Asia Y102.135
Y102.16 ***Current market rate 0731GMT Friday
Y101.64 Int.Day lows Asia
Y101.62 Dec5 low
Y101.50 Strong demand/Stops
Y101.20-00 Strong demand/Y101.00 large expiry/Stops
06-Dec-2013 7:44
EURO-YEN TECHS: Doji After Bounce From Tenkan Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: Y141.38 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y140.52 Rising channel top from Nov 8 low
RES 2: Y140.03 High Dec 3
RES 1: Y139.71 High Nov 29
LATEST PRICE: Y139.49
SUP 1: Y138.95/97 Hourly low, Low Nov 29
SUP 2: Y138.43/58 Low Dec 4, Daily Tenkan line
SUP 3: Y138.24 Rising channel base from Nov 8
SUP 4: Y137.95 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen bounced from the daily Tenkan line yesterday to leave a
long-legged doji - bulls today look to break above the previous two session
highs and likely eye a retest of the Y140.03 Dec 3 high. A retest of this level
would encourage bulls but failure here could see bears take control while
studies look overbought. Bears aim to test the rising channel base at Y138.24
and a break below here targets the 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03 at Y137.95.
EURO-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y140.20 Medium offers
Y140.03 2013 high - 3 Dec
Y140.00 Strong offers on approach
Y139.80/85 Medium offers
Y139.60/65 Mediium offers/Y139.61 Dec4 high/Y139.65 76.4% Y140.03-138.43
Y139.61 Int.Day high Europe, Asia Y139.50
Y139.47 ***Current market price 0746GMT Friday
Y138.95 Int.Day low Asia
Y138.50/40 Strong demand/Y138.47 Dec5 low/Stops
Y138.20 Strong demand
Y138.00 Strong demand, stops
Y137.95/90 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03
Y137.80 Strong demand
Y137.50 Strong demand/Stops
Kusus pisze:Dziwie sie dlaczego umocnienie dolca nie mialo wczoraj miejsca
Dlatego sądzę że nie warto spekulować na forexie. Jedyne co się opłaca to matematyczne prawdopodobieństwo.
U mnie sygnał na sell
Zamieszczane przeze mnie wykresy pokazują jedyne słuszne spojrzenie na rynek i stanowią jednoznaczną rekomendacje. Podejmowanie na ich podstawie decyzji inwestycyjnych jest świetnym pomysłem.
