Hello
EUROPE: With the ECB rate decision out of the way, the main release for traders
to focus on Friday will be the US jobs data at 1230GMT. Ahead of the US numbers,
there is a fairly light calendar across Europe, starting at 0600GMT, with the
release of the German April car registrations data. At 0800GMT, the German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is slated to deliver a speech at the
University of Ulm, Germany. Back on the continent, eurozone March PPI numbers
are expected at 0900GMT, with the European Commission Spring economic forecasts
expected at 1100GMT.
UK: There is little UK data, but the April CIPS/Markit Services PMI numbers are
expected, with a further strengthening seen in the driving motor behind the
nascent UK recovery.
UK PRESS: The FT notes that a majority of London businesses - 52% - believe
remaining in the EU under current conditions would be harmful to their
prospects, but 60% overall believe staying in a reformed EU would be good for
business.
UK PRESS: The FT says the UK's underemployment rate stands at 9.9%, as many
people in employment are actually working fewer hours than they want, with 16 to
24-year old underemployment at 20%.
UK PRESS: Thursday saw local elections held across the UK. Actual vote counts
are not expected until midday Friday, but analysts say that UKIP has made a
solid showing across the country. Also Thursday, Labour held the South Shields
seat formerly held by David Milliband, although with a reduced majority as UKIP
moved into second place.
UK PRESS: For the third time in less than a month, the UK's leading supermarkets
have cut prices on unleaded fuel and diesel prices. The supermarkets have all
cut prices by a further 2p a litre
US: The main focus will be the release of the April Non-farm
Payrolls data at 1230GMT. 
Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 150,000 in April after a very modest
88,000 increase in March, with private payrolls expected to rise 160,000. The
unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 7.6% after falling in the
previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2%, while the average
workweek is expected to shorten to 34.5 hours.
At 1400GMT, the March Factory Orders data will be released.
The value of new factory orders is expected to fall 3.0% in March after a 3.0%
February rise that was the largest rise since September 2012. Durable goods
orders were already reported down 5.7%, while durable goods orders ex.
transportation were down 1.4%, a second straight decline after rising steadily
through the latter half of 2012.
The US April ISM non-manufacturing index is also due at 1400GMT. The ISM
non-manufacturing index is forecast to decline to a reading of 54.0 in April
after falling in March. The nonmanufacturing ISM reading has remained well above
the manufacturing reading in recent months, a trend that is expected to continue
with the April data.
The day ends with some Fedspeak, starting with Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel
Tarullo's speech on regulatory reform to the Peterson Institute in Washington at
1630GMT.
Then, at 1645GMT, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker gives a speech on the
economic outlook to the Risk Management Association.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Thursday at $1.3059 after rate had seen a
whippy reaction to the ECB 25bp refi rate cut (deposit rate remaining at 0%,
lending rate cut 50bp to 1.0%), the initial drop to $1.3122 then recovery to
$1.3218 was followed by an extended drop to $1.3037 (55-dma $1.3035 Thursday,
today at $1.3031) as markets reacted to Draghi comments that technically he was
open to negative interest rates.
A Tokyo holiday saw trade subdued through the
Asian session, with the release of key US employment data this afternoon also
acting to quieten activity. Rate touched an early low of $1.3056 in Asia, with
rate slowly creeping up to $1.3078 before drifting to $1.3070 ahead of the
European open.
EZ PPI at 0900GMT, provides the morning interest but US NFP to
overshadow. Bids remain at $1.3035/30, stops on break of $1.3025. Further
support seen into $1.3000 ahead of $1.2980/70 and $1.2950. Offers $1.3080,
stronger into $1.3100. Further sell interest then seen at $1.3120/25 with stops
above.
Apart from data market will be on watch for any comment following
yesterday's ECB rate move, especially any leakage of how the board came to its
decision.
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3240/60 Medium offers/Stops mixed in/$1.3250 barrier? ($1.3243 May1 high)
$1.3231 Ichimoku daily cloud top
$1.3218 Int.Day high Europe-NY; $1.3214 76.4% $1.3243-1.3122
$1.3180/85 Medium offers
$1.3150/60 Medium offers
$1.3120/25 Medium offers
$1.3100 Medium offers on approach, stops above
$1.3078 Intraday high Asia
$1.3071 ***Current mkt rate 0602GMT Friday
$1.3058 Intraday low Asia
$1.3055/50 Strong demand/$1.3052 Apr30 low;$1.3053 38.2%($1.2746-$1.3243)
$1.3035/30 US session low/55-dma
$1.3010 Strong demand
$1.2994 Tech 40-dma/50% $1.2745-1.3243
$1.2972 200-dma
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.5528 after rate had been
dragged to a session low of $1.5496 on euro-dollar post ECB/Draghi induced
slippage, though euro-sterling getting pressed down to stg0.8405 diverted some
of this negative pressure. Cable managed to recover to $1.5540 ahead of the
close. Rate touched $1.5527 into Asia before recovering to a high of $1.5541.
Rate then drifted lower, meeting support ahead of $1.5520 as it sank back to
$1.5521.
Tokyo holiday and usual pre NFP markets tended to subdue general trade.
Cable moves overnight were driven by euro-dollar moves, while the cross
consolidated Thursday's pullback between stg0.84085-0.8423.
Domestic data
interest to be provided by services PMI data at 0928GMT, seen as the major
element of the PMI set with market looking for further confirmation of last
week's better than expected first call reading of Q1 GDP data after positive
releases in PMI manufacturing and construction data. Market median for this
release seen at 52.4. Cable resistance $1.5545/55, a break to open a move toward
$1.5570 ahead of stronger area between $1.5590/1.5610 ($1.5607 Wednesday high
and 50% of $1.6381-1.4832 the 2013 range). Support $1.5500/1.5490.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Thursday at Y97.98 after rate had been
driven to session highs of Y98.39 from around the Y97.20/25 area on reaction to
the ECB rate cut, dropping back to Y97.60 on Draghi comments on negative
interest rates, with moves mainly driven via euro-yen. Rate touched a low of
Y97.90 in early, Japan holiday, trade with recovery efforts (seen prompted by
the higher than expected yuan fix) only able to edge rate back to Y98.08 before
rate settled into a tight range around Y98.00 into Europe. Yen seen as the main
reactor to US employment today later today (140k median), with moves to be
driven on UST yield. Dollar-yen offers seen into Y98.40/50, with main support
noted back down on approach to the Y97.00, an Asian sovereign continuing to be
noted in this area, stops now having built below between Y96.90-70. A few
suggesting that a break and close below Y96.71 to open a deeper move back toward
Y95.60/50.
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2830, $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2965, $1.3000, $1.3040, $1.3065,
$1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3200
* Dollar-yen; Y96.60, Y97.00, Y97.50, Y97.60, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y99.00, Y100.00
* Cable; $1.5250, $1.5550
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9500
* Aussie; $1.0195, $1.0250
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no sovereign bond issuance planned in the eurozone
Friday, which has now been completed for this week and totals E17.71bln and
compares to E7.8bln. As a recap, Italy kicked off issuance on Monday with tap of
its 5-year benchmark 3.50% June 2018 BTP and also 10-year benchmark 4.50% May
2023 BTP issue for E3.0bln each issue. Also on Monday, Belgium tapped its 5-year
benchmark 1.25% June 2018 OLO69 and 10-year benchmark 2.25% June 2023 OLO68
along with off-the-runs 4.25% Sep 2021 OLO61 and 5.50% Mar 2028 OLO31 for
E3.785bln. On Thursday, France sold a new 10-year benchmark 1.75% Mar 2023 OAT
issue and also tap off-the-run 3.25% Oct 2021 OAT along with 5.75% Oct 2032 OAT
issues for E7.925bln. Elsewhere, in dollar issuance Slovenia priced $3.5bln in
dual-tranche 5-/10-year bonds on Thursday at yield 4.95% and 6.0%, respectively.
In terms of reinvestment flows, redemption payments from Italy E12.44bln and
Spain E14.94bln along with coupon payments from Italy E4.78bln and Spain
E4.17bln -- leaves net cash flow positive to the tune of E18.6bln vs E32.8bln
last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see eurozone bond
auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- May 03 EU releases Spring Economic Forecasts
- May 03 German FinMin Schaeuble speaks at University of Ulm
- May 03 ECB publishes 3-year LTRO repayment amount for following week
- May 06 ECB Draghi speaks at LUISS Guido Carli in Rome
- May 06 European final Apr PMI services survey
- May 06 Spain Apr unemployment data
- May 08 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- May 08 Italian Apr Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 09 Spain bond auction
- May 09 ECB quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters
- May 10/11 G8 FinMin & central bank governors meeting in the U.K
- May 10 Italy T-bill auction
- May 10 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.6bln
- May 10 Cyprus Apr Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 13 Eurogroup meeting
US: Timeline of key events in the US near-term:
- May 03 April Nonfarm Payrolls, est +150k, +0.2 AHE at 0830ET
- May 03 Fed Gov Tarullo at Peterson Institute in Washington at 1230ET
- May 03 Fed Lacker (non-voter) at RMA in Richmond at 1245ET
- May 03 Treasury STRIPS at 1500ET
- May 06 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- May 06 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- May 06 Outright Tsy Cpn Purch May 15 2020-Feb 15 2023 $2.75-$3.50B
- May 07 President Obama meets S. Korea Pres Park Geun-hye
- May 07 Tsy Cpn Purchases Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- May 07 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- May 07 UST auctions 3y in May refunding at 1300ET
- May 07 Apr Treasury Allotments
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
kimka 1 h i czekac jak londyn ruszyly 
