DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
pomjajac to ze korelacja EDKA korelacje z USD JPY - RISK OFF
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
miałem to pisać wcześniej hihiNowy123 pisze:pomjajac to ze korelacja EDKA korelacje z USD JPY - RISK OFF
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
a ja sie zapytam jesl pod takie dane SP500 nie jest wstanie zrobic nowych szczytow to kiedy
Dax tez co ne co pokazuje no coz
Dax tez co ne co pokazuje no coz
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
1 wpływ teoretycznie osłabienie EURmelpomena pisze:Nie wiem, ale tak do tej pory zachowywał się rynek.psxor pisze:Dla $ slabnaco? Z jakiej paki?Być może inwestorzy postrzegają to tak: mocniejsza Rosja - to słabsze Stany. Nie rozumiem tego, bo przecież to Unia smaży na rosyjskim gazie, a nie Stany.
Konflikt może być też postrzegany jako mocowanie RU-USA, a Unia siedzi cicho (bo tak de facto jest).
Jednak potem wkurzony putin = kolejny krok do zmniejszenia USD jako waluty rezerwowej i wywalenia USD przez rosjan w ramach odwetu a ew. kolejne sankcje
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niemiaszek
- Przyjaciel Forum
- Posty: 5097
- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
dzisiejsze zamieszanie na edku to głównie przez 10-latki...dużą zmienność na rentowności 
US TSYS: Citi FX analysts found 18 periods (including now) since the beginning
of 1990 when 10y rates were in a 25bp yield range for 40 trading days or more.
They say current 25bp range is holding for a period of 71 days -- this "makes it
the longest range bound period" in the 24 yrs sample. Median time for a 25bp
range prior to this is 47 days. Current situation is not normal, and a break is
often big. Citi says "breakout causes a one month median move in either
direction of about 20bp, and a 3 month median move of about 40bp."
ogólne wytłumaczenie zamieszania na 10 latkach, niby nic wielkiego się nie stało, ale nałożyło się kilka istotnych argumentów a to bezpośrednio miało przełożenia na edka 
jeżeli "oni" się boją zostać z pozycjami na weekend+poniedziałek+wtorek, to co nam malutkim pozostaje
US TSYS: Traders said Tsys market reflects the fact that both UK and Japan
financial centers will be out Monday (thus a need for flight to quality buying
into weekend, amid Russia/Ukraine worries.) "With the holiday, many people do
not want to be short," said one observer. "And, Japan has both Monday and
Tuesday off." He noted "we remain bullish on Treasuries. And if we close at
these levels," i.e., relatively high prices even after the major morning selloff
on April jobs followed by a midmorning safe-haven buying rally, "continue to
buy." He explained his reasoning why bond mkt not worried despite stronger jobs.
"Inflation is low, we have a slack labor market, and low labor participation,"
he said. "When those (discouraged worker) people come back, the unemployment
rate will explode" higher. "And, we have a massive
inventory of houses that we cannot sell, with banks having massive shadow
inventories" of houses in foreclosures, short sales etc.
US TSYS: Citi FX analysts found 18 periods (including now) since the beginning
of 1990 when 10y rates were in a 25bp yield range for 40 trading days or more.
They say current 25bp range is holding for a period of 71 days -- this "makes it
the longest range bound period" in the 24 yrs sample. Median time for a 25bp
range prior to this is 47 days. Current situation is not normal, and a break is
often big. Citi says "breakout causes a one month median move in either
direction of about 20bp, and a 3 month median move of about 40bp."
ogólne wytłumaczenie zamieszania na 10 latkach, niby nic wielkiego się nie stało, ale nałożyło się kilka istotnych argumentów a to bezpośrednio miało przełożenia na edka
jeżeli "oni" się boją zostać z pozycjami na weekend+poniedziałek+wtorek, to co nam malutkim pozostaje
US TSYS: Traders said Tsys market reflects the fact that both UK and Japan
financial centers will be out Monday (thus a need for flight to quality buying
into weekend, amid Russia/Ukraine worries.) "With the holiday, many people do
not want to be short," said one observer. "And, Japan has both Monday and
Tuesday off." He noted "we remain bullish on Treasuries. And if we close at
these levels," i.e., relatively high prices even after the major morning selloff
on April jobs followed by a midmorning safe-haven buying rally, "continue to
buy." He explained his reasoning why bond mkt not worried despite stronger jobs.
"Inflation is low, we have a slack labor market, and low labor participation,"
he said. "When those (discouraged worker) people come back, the unemployment
rate will explode" higher. "And, we have a massive
inventory of houses that we cannot sell, with banks having massive shadow
inventories" of houses in foreclosures, short sales etc.
Ostatnio zmieniony 02 maja 2014, 20:38 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 2 razy.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
Nowy123 jak widzisz dax?
-
niemiaszek
- Przyjaciel Forum
- Posty: 5097
- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
dzisiejsze zamieszanie na edku po takich bardzo dobrych danych jak pokazały NFP dla siły $ też nie jest normalną sytuacją...powinniśmy być z 2 piętra niżej na edku a jesteśmy na szczytach sesji
US TSYS/RESEARCH: Treasuries hold near session highs. RBC chief technical
analyst George Davis said the 10-year note will have a "more bullish tint" until
its yield closes above a quintuple top that has formed between 2.79/2.82%, which
would "confirm a bearish breakout and a shift in sentiment (would expose 2.87%
and 2.91% thereafter)." But the 10-year note is closer to "initial support
located at 2.61% and 2.57%," as 10-year note right now is at 2.586%, he said. "A
daily close below the 2014 low at 2.57% would add to bullish momentum, exposing
2.50% ahead of a triple bottom near 2.46%," he said. He said the 10-year note
has had a "multi-month consolidation."
US TSYS/RESEARCH: After such a wild selloff and then rally all in one post-jobs
Friday, it's important to remind at BA/ML head of global technical strategy
MacNeil Curry urged to "watch the 2.825%/2.591% multi-month range extremes" on
10-year notes. He also said "don't fade a breakout." The cash 10-year note is
sitting right beside that 2.59%, and is at 2.586%, so the closing level could be
quite important.
US TSYS: Treasuries see mild profit-taking at session highs, but market managed
to maintain almost all rally gains after the safe-haven buying rally followed
the steep post-jobs data selloff, chopping up both bulls and bears in the
process. Tsys traders would be expected to leave their positions in place now,
as need to protect against a weekend Russia/Ukraine flareup, esp. with UK out on
Monday and Japan too. Cash 10-year note is at 2.588%. U.S. stocks are mildly
softer, DJIA off 0.29% at 16,510.
US TSYS: TD's Richard Gilhooly said that 10yr Treasury yields "are going out"
near the yield "lows of the year, joining their more learned sibling at the long
end of the curve in reaching new low yields for 2014. The 2 events are clearly
related in that the grab for duration and stellar performance of the bond sector
this year has left people grabbing for duration and edging down the curve as
30yr yields move progressively lower." He also quipped that the fact that it
happened after the April 288K jobs gain is "bizarre." Cash 10-year note hit a
2.573% yield at 2:08 p.m. ET.
US TSYS: TD's Gilhooly adds that Tsy mkt "suggestion that Ukraine (event risk),
or one large buyer, is behind today's move, ignores the fact that it has been
building for months, and the last 2 employment reports have been used to
accumulate duration at higher yields, with the risk of the NFP report gone.
Today's report came against a 10bp rally after GDP, which gave the immediate
backup in yields that was more tepidly bought at first, due to the strength of
the headline NFP number." But household survey content "completely contradicted
the headline strength such that any suggestions of a growth reacceleration were
undermined," he said. So US long end yields reflect "a combination of weak and
weakening real GDP growth, together with weak and possibly weakening inflation,"
he said. "The result is that nominal GDP growth, instead of accelerating past 4%
and possibly as high as a 5% rate implied by consensus 3% GDP forecasts and 2%
inflation forecasts, risks falling far short. Consider a scenario of 0-1% GDP
growth (not even stretching to my own pessimistic forecast for recession) and 1%
inflation, and we arrive at a 2% nominal GDP outlook while the Fed is putting to
bed its 'extraordinary' measures."
US TSYS/RESEARCH: Treasuries hold near session highs. RBC chief technical
analyst George Davis said the 10-year note will have a "more bullish tint" until
its yield closes above a quintuple top that has formed between 2.79/2.82%, which
would "confirm a bearish breakout and a shift in sentiment (would expose 2.87%
and 2.91% thereafter)." But the 10-year note is closer to "initial support
located at 2.61% and 2.57%," as 10-year note right now is at 2.586%, he said. "A
daily close below the 2014 low at 2.57% would add to bullish momentum, exposing
2.50% ahead of a triple bottom near 2.46%," he said. He said the 10-year note
has had a "multi-month consolidation."
US TSYS/RESEARCH: After such a wild selloff and then rally all in one post-jobs
Friday, it's important to remind at BA/ML head of global technical strategy
MacNeil Curry urged to "watch the 2.825%/2.591% multi-month range extremes" on
10-year notes. He also said "don't fade a breakout." The cash 10-year note is
sitting right beside that 2.59%, and is at 2.586%, so the closing level could be
quite important.
US TSYS: Treasuries see mild profit-taking at session highs, but market managed
to maintain almost all rally gains after the safe-haven buying rally followed
the steep post-jobs data selloff, chopping up both bulls and bears in the
process. Tsys traders would be expected to leave their positions in place now,
as need to protect against a weekend Russia/Ukraine flareup, esp. with UK out on
Monday and Japan too. Cash 10-year note is at 2.588%. U.S. stocks are mildly
softer, DJIA off 0.29% at 16,510.
US TSYS: TD's Richard Gilhooly said that 10yr Treasury yields "are going out"
near the yield "lows of the year, joining their more learned sibling at the long
end of the curve in reaching new low yields for 2014. The 2 events are clearly
related in that the grab for duration and stellar performance of the bond sector
this year has left people grabbing for duration and edging down the curve as
30yr yields move progressively lower." He also quipped that the fact that it
happened after the April 288K jobs gain is "bizarre." Cash 10-year note hit a
2.573% yield at 2:08 p.m. ET.
US TSYS: TD's Gilhooly adds that Tsy mkt "suggestion that Ukraine (event risk),
or one large buyer, is behind today's move, ignores the fact that it has been
building for months, and the last 2 employment reports have been used to
accumulate duration at higher yields, with the risk of the NFP report gone.
Today's report came against a 10bp rally after GDP, which gave the immediate
backup in yields that was more tepidly bought at first, due to the strength of
the headline NFP number." But household survey content "completely contradicted
the headline strength such that any suggestions of a growth reacceleration were
undermined," he said. So US long end yields reflect "a combination of weak and
weakening real GDP growth, together with weak and possibly weakening inflation,"
he said. "The result is that nominal GDP growth, instead of accelerating past 4%
and possibly as high as a 5% rate implied by consensus 3% GDP forecasts and 2%
inflation forecasts, risks falling far short. Consider a scenario of 0-1% GDP
growth (not even stretching to my own pessimistic forecast for recession) and 1%
inflation, and we arrive at a 2% nominal GDP outlook while the Fed is putting to
bed its 'extraordinary' measures."
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
kiedy ? do następnego piątkuNowy123 pisze:a ja sie zapytam jesl pod takie dane SP500 nie jest wstanie zrobic nowych szczytow to kiedy
Dax tez co ne co pokazuje no coz
-
niemiaszek
- Przyjaciel Forum
- Posty: 5097
- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
Re: DayTrading: Piątek 02.05.2014
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"