Hello
EURO SUMMARY: The euro traded a $1.3503 to $1.3555 range in the US last
night before starting this morning's session at $1.3533. The early risk-on
environment, which fueled euro-yen's initial gains coupled with the positive
open in Japanese stocks helped lift euro-dollar to the session's $1.3540 high
before it then reversed direction. Euro-dollar took its cue from euro-yen's
turnaround also and slipped to $1.3526. Rumored demand from Asian accounts
nudged the pair back up to $1.3535 before the pair then gave up the move and
retreated again. Dealers said sell orders from $1.3550 were responsible for
putting a lid on the pair and it slid to a $1.3520 low in the afternoon.
Euro-dollar was last at $1.3521, with offers cited ahead, from the region of the
overnight $1.3555 high, and then from $1.3574 toward $1.3580, with stops
expected on a break above $1.3600. On the downside, bids are expected at $1.3495
and at $1.3480/75.
The ECB meeting tonight is the main event risk, ahead of
Friday's US non-farm payrolls data. 
EUR/USD: Euro-dollar continues to hold below the Sept 6 support line, now at
$1.3578, which bulls have been looking to test since breaking below on Jan 31,
ahead of here is yesterday's high at $1.3555. However, continued failure to
retest this level could see bears take control - they require a break below the
Feb 3 low at $1.3477 to test key support seen just above the $1.3450 level - a
couple of Fibonacci levels at $1.3456/58 and the daily Bolli base at $1.3465.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3640 61.8% $1.3740-1.3477
*$1.3599-06 21-dma, 100-dma/Offers to $1.3610/Stops
*$1.3594 Cloud base
*$1.3580 Medium offers
*$1.3574-77 Jan31 high-38.2% $1.3740-1.3477/$1.3575 T-line Jan24
*$1.3555 Feb5 high/Model sellers above $1.3550
*$1.3540 Int.Day Asia
*$1.3519 ***Current mkt rate 0634GMT Thursday
*$1.3515 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.35195
*$1.3499-94 Feb5-Feb4 lows/Asian demand sub $1.3495
*$1.3485/80 Medium demand
*$1.3477 Feb3 low/$1.3466 T-line off Jan20
*$1.3460/50 Medium demand/$1.3459 38.2% $1.2755-1.3894
*$1.3438-36 T-line off Dec20 low-76.4% $1.3295-1.3894
*$1.3400 Medium demand/$1.3399 Nov21 low
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Wednesday at $1.6310 after rate had been
pressed to lows of $1.6252, challenging its 100-dma (today at $1.6255) as
euro-sterling was forced through resistance at stg0.8327-33 (high stg0.8334) to
take out weak stops before sterling buyers re emerged. Cable recovered to
$1.6332 before drifting off into the close. Euro-sterling closed NY at
stg0.8296.
Focus today on the BOE MPC rate decision at 1200GMT, followed by the
ECB at 1245GMT, then press conference at 1330GMT. Most expect the BOE to remain
unchanged, focus on next week's Inflation Report and comments on Forward
guidance, whilst the ECB may cut rates (Bloomberg say 4 out of 47 analysts look
for a 15bp cut) though most expect ECB Draghi to be dovish. With this in mind
traders prefer to fade euro-sterling rallies, Wednesday's rally allowing for
better short entry levels. Unchanged ECB may cause a knee jerk reaction higher
in the cross but the press conference is key. In Asia cable recovered to $1.6330
as risk was boosted by positive Australian retail sales and trade data but
stepped its way down to $1.6303 through the balance of the session, extending to
$1.6295 in opening Europe. Rate holds heavy, albeit in a tight range.
GBP/USD: Cable tested support around the 100-DMA in the past two sessions and
failed to break below despite bearish studies. Bears look to retest key support
seen around here, from the 21-week MA at $1.6244, daily Bolli band base at
$1.6252, 100-DMA at $1.6255 and 50.0% level at $1.6262. A close below this level
likely accelerates losses, however daily studies are near oversold and a bounce
from here could then retest the former July support line at $1.6462.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.6449 Feb3 high/Offers to $1.6450
*$1.6410/20 Medium offers/$1.6418 50-dma/$1.6411 38.2% $1.6667-1.6257
*$1.6400 Medium offers
*$1.6380/85 Medium offers
*$1.6370 Medium offers
*$1.6340/55 Medium offers/$1.6353 Feb4 high, 23.6% $1.6667-1.6257
*$1.6332 Recovery high off $1.6252 (NY Feb5)
*$1.6330 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.6308 ***Current market rate 0645GMT Thursday
*$1.6295 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.6303
*$1.6290 Medium demand
*$1.6255/50 Strong demand/$1.6255 100-dma/$1.6252 Feb5 low/Stops
*$1.6220/10 Strong demand/$1.6220 Dec17 low/Stops
*$1.6200 Medium demand on approach
*$1.6180 Medium demand
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*stg0.8340-50 Strong offers
*stg0.8339 Jan17 high
*stg0.8334 Feb5 high
*stg0.8333 Corresponds to E1.2000
*stg0.8300 Medium offers
*stg0.82985 Int.Day high Asia
*stg0.8287 ***Current market rate 0655GMT Thursday
*stg0.8290 Int.Day low Asia/stg0.8289 low off stg0.8334 (NY)
*stg0.8270/65 Medium demand/Area of lows Feb5
*stg0.8261 50% stg0.8188-0.8334
*stg0.8250/40 Strong demand/stg0.8244 61.8% stg0.8188-0.8334
*stg0.8225/20 Medium demand
*stg0.8199 Feb3 low
*stg0.8188 Jan31 low
*stg0.8168 Jan22 low
YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese yen weakened at the start of the session, giving a leg
up to dollar-yen and euro-yen minutes after Japanese stock markets opened this
morning. Dollar-yen started at Y101.45 and rose to Y101.55, while euro-yen also
rose to Y137.41 after opening at Y137.29 amid signs of improved risk sentiment.
Dollar-yen extended the high to Y101.65 after Japanese stocks opened higher,
while the cross rose to Y137.58. The gains stalled as the rise in Japanese
stocks ran out of steam, and led to dollar-yen completely reversing the initial
morning gains. Losses then picked up pace with dollar-yen then retreating to a
Y101.32 low while euro-yen dropped to Y137.11 before talk of rumored demand from
Y101.00 and below contained the downmove. Yen pairs rebounded again in the
afternoon as US Treasury yields continued to rise, with dollar-yen then break
above the morning low to Y101.67 while the cross also followed suit, rebounding
to a Y137.48. Dollar-yen was last at Y101.16 while euro-yen was at Y137.42.
Stops are noted below Y100.75 with a break lower to see the key 200-day moving
average (Y100.11) tested.
USD/JPY: Dollar-yen posts a long lower shadow after testing below the daily
Ichimoku cloud to Feb 4 low at Y100.76 where a convergence of support is noted -
daily Bolli base is at Y100.77. Bears look to close below the 100-DMA and daily
cloud base at Y101.17/18, however daily studies could turn higher allowing bulls
to retest the former Nov 2012 support line at Y102.23. But failure to retest
adds downside risk while weekly/monthly studies add further downside pressure.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y102.80 Light stops
*Y102.50 Medium offers
*Y102.41/45 3 Feb high, 38.2% of Y97.62-105.43
*Y102.10/23 Daily Tenkan line, Former Nov 12 Support line
*Y102.00 Offers on approach
*Y101.80 Medium offers
*Y101.66 Asia high
*Y101.48 ***Current market rate 0631GMT Thursday
*Y101.33 Asia low
*Y101.18/17 Daily Ichimoku cloud base, 100-day ma
*Y101.00 Demand on approach, stops
*Y100.80 Semi-official demand reported (5 Feb low)
*Y100.75 4 Feb low, stops on a break
*Y100.61 61.8% of Y97.62-105.44
*Y100.50 Strong demand, stops
EUR/JPY: Euro-yen continues to hold below 100-DMA which is key initial
resistance at Y137.66, a break above could turn daily studies higher from
oversold territory. However, failure to regain above targets further losses -
initial support is 61.8% of Y131.22-145.69 at Y136.75 and just below is daily
Bolli base at Y136.42, followed by Feb 4 low at Y136.23. Weekly/monthly studies
continue to slide and further losses targets the next support line at Y135.09.
EURO-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y138.45/50 Strong offers (Y138.46 - Cloud base & Frmr 50% of Y131.22-145.69)
*Y138.20 Light stops
*Y138.11 3 Feb high
*Y137.95/00 Offers on approach,
*Y137.80/85 Medium offers
*Y137.58/66 Asia high, 100-day ma
*Y137.45/50 Minor offers
*Y137.22 ***Current market price 0645GMT Thursday
*Y137.00 Demand on approach (Y137.06 - Asia low)
*Y136.80 Medium demand
*Y136.75 61.8% of Y131.22-145.69
*Y136.55 5 Feb low
*Y136.50 Strong demand, stops building
*Y136.40/36 21 Nov high, 3 Feb low
*Y136.25/20 Medium demand (Y136.23 - 4 Feb low)
AUSSIE SUMMARY: Another positive session for the Australian dollar this morning
as it gained to 3-week high following the release of another set of buoyant
economic numbers. Aussie-dollar opened at $0.8910 after overnight gains stalled
ahead of this week's $0.8943 high traded after the RBA's policy statement. The
early risk-on theme lifted aussie-dollar up to around $0.8932 minutes after
Japanese stocks opened although at that point activity was still largely
sluggish. The release of of Australia's trade data, at the same time as retail
sales and the NAB's bsuiness survey, triggered a broader aussie jump, and
aussie-dollar was lifted through $0.8950. The pair then broke above stops at
$0.8965 and briefly paused ahead of sell orders at $0.8965. These then gave way
and the aussie traded a high of $0.8981 before being capped. It has since held
near there and was last at $0.8963, with rumored sellers still spied ahead from
$0.8990 through $0.9000. Beyond that, the previous monthly high of $0.9086,
traded on Jan. 13, beckons.
AUSSIE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*$0.9120 Large stops
*$0.9100 Strong offers, stops
*$0.9086 13 Jan high
*$0.9050 Strong offers, stops
*$0.9020 Market stops
*$0.9000 Strong offers, stops
*$0.8981/85 Asia high, 76.4% of $0.9086-0.8660
*$0.8967 ***Current market price 0635GMT Thursday
*$0.8937 55-day ma
*$0.8909 Asia low
*$0.8900 Demand on approach
*$0.8880 Medium demand
*$0.8874 5 Feb low
*$0.8860 5-day ma
*$0.8850 Demand on approach
DOLLAR-ASIA SUMMARY: Overnight USD/Asia FX continued to trend lower after a
surprised Mexico upgrade by Moody's and US stocks closed lower. Late Asia
morning saw short covering in USD/Asia FX on back of higher benchmark (UST)
10-year Treasuries yields, giving rise to stronger greenback too. This morning
Asian equities recovered with risk appetite returning after Mexico upgrade
overnight.
USD/IDR: Onshore dollar-rupiah dipped to session low of Idr12,145 from an open
of Idr12,155 before rebounding to session high of Idr12,175 and retreats to
Idr12,170 last, state banks were seen selling on market open but demand from
local corporates & Japanese names supported the pair. The 1s NDF opened at low
of Idr12,130, it edged higher to hit session high of Idr12,080 before retreating
to Idr12,060 last, early session saw 1s against fix narrowed sharply from +55 to
+30, 1-day against fix was given at -10, 1w1's traded at +50 and the 1*3's
narrowed to +150.
USD/THB: Dollar-baht opened at Thb32.77, trading firmer between Thb32.74 to
Thb32.865 and last seen at Thb32.84. Dollar-baht higher after January consumer
confidence fell to 71.5 from a previous month of 73.4 and consumer confidence
economic fell to 61.4 from a previous of 63.2.
USD/KRW: Dollar-won opened at initial high of Krw1,077.5, plunging to session
low of Krw1,073.8 before staging a recovery to hit intraday high of Krw1,079.5
and ended the session 1.1 won higher at Krw1,079.0. Local/offshore names and
higher UST yield supported the pair's advance. Asian stocks recovered today and
the Kospi ended 0.88% higher despite foreigners still net sellers today.
USD/MYR: Onshore dollar-ringgit opened at initial high of Myr3.3140, it slipped
to intraday low of Myr3.3080 before staging a strong pullback to Myr3.3260 last.
In offshore markets, the 1s NDF traded down from an open of Myr3.3185 to a low
of Myr3.3130 but surged to intraday high of Myr3.3320 last and the 1s against
fix dealt from +51 to +56, 1*2's dealt at +57 in the morning.
USD/SGD: Dollar-sing opened at Sgd1.2680 in Asia morning, trading a range of
Sgd1.2673 to Sgd1.2698 so far and last bounce to Sgd1.2693. The SgdMyr cross
jumped higher to hit fresh intraday high of Myr2.6207 currently from a low of
Myr2.6090. Short covering from offshore names on back of higher US treasuries
yield dragged the pair and SgdMyr cross higher.
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very
Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen;
Y100.70(VL), Y101.05, Y101.50,
Y101.75/80(VL), Y102.00, Y102.35,
Y102.50, Y102.75
* Euro-dollar; $1.3425,
$1.3450(L),
$1.3475(L),
$1.3500(VL), $1.3515, $1.3530,
$1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3605
* Cable; $1.6340, $1.6400
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8200, stg0.8300, stg0.8400
* Dollar-swiss;
Chf0.9055(L), Chf0.9090, Chf0.9100
* Euro-swiss; Chf1.2175, Chf1.2300
* Aussie-dollar; $0.8815, $0.8825, $0.8850/55, $0.8875, $0.8880, $0.8900
* Aussie-yen; Y89.50, Y91.00
* Kiwi; $0.8165, $0.8200
* Dollar-Canada; Cad1.1050, Cad1.1140,
Cad1.1175 (Rtrs+DTCC)
bardzo często przed danymi rynek daje wyraźny i czytelny sygnał w którym kierunku pójdzie cena - tak przynajmniej wygląda to z punktu widzenia AT 
