1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Panie i Panowie spekulanci
W Nowym Roku 2014 życzę wszystkim zdrowia, pomyślności, sowitych zysków płynących z forex, a do tego satysfakcji z tego co robicie
Zamieszczane przeze mnie wykresy pokazują jedyne słuszne spojrzenie na rynek i stanowią jednoznaczną rekomendacje. Podejmowanie na ich podstawie decyzji inwestycyjnych jest świetnym pomysłem.
EURO SUMMARY: A quiet start to 2014 for the euro this morning, as it opened at
$1.3763 and, after a brief retreat to $1.3741, rebounded to $1.3775 even before
any of the main Asian markets were fully open. A heavy euro-yen tone then sapped
the euro of the early strength, and pushed euro-dollar back down with sellers at
$1.3760 then coming as well to further weigh down euro-dollar to $1.3750. The
pair staged a short recovery again to the $1.3775 earlier high and then ran out
of steam again. Trades flows again dissipated after that, and euro-dollar
drifted lower again to $1.3750 region in the early afternoon in Asia.
Euro-dollar was last at $1.3747. Immediate support below is seen at the 21-day
moving average at $1.3727 and if that holds, a re-test of the $1.3820-25 region
then seems likely.
02-Jan-2014 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Eye Break Below Nov 7 Support Line
RES 4: $1.3893 High Dec 27
RES 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 2: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
RES 1: $1.3789 Rising channel base
LATEST PRICE: $1.3747
SUP 1: $1.3712/26 Nov 7 support line, 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3665 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893
SUP 3: $1.3633/43 55-DMA, Daily Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.3594/98 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893, High Oct 14
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar failing to close above $1.3800 level and last session
failed just ahead of here adding downside risk. 10-week momentum study slips
into negative territory and bears look to break below the Nov 7 support line at
$1.3712 - a move below here could flip sentiment to the downside and next key
support is $1.3665 - 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893. However, Nov 7 support line has
been a strong barrier and a bounce from here could retest highs around $1.3811.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3894 Dec27 high/$1.3896 61.8% $1.5144-1.1877
*$1.3850/60 Medium offers/$1.3855 76.4% $1.3894-1.3728/Stops
*$1.3830 Strong offers/$1.3831 61.8% $1.3894-1.3728/Stops
*$1.3810-20 Medium offers/Area of recent highs $1.3813 Dec31, $1.3819 Dec30
*$1.3790-800 Medium offers
*$1.3775 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.3755 ***Current mkt rate 0622GMT Thursday
*$1.3741 Int.Day low Asia
*$1.3740/35 Medium demand
*$1.3728 Dec30 low (pullback low from $1.3894 Dec27)
*$1.3725/15 Medium demand
*$1.3700 Minor demand
*$1.3688 Dec27 low
*$1.3650 Medium demand
*$1.3633/22 $1.3628 55-dma, $1.3622 50-dma, $1.3626 40-dma
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable managed to extend its 2013 highs to $1.6580 on the last
trading day of the year Tuesday, the rate touching a high of $1.6580 before it
eased off to $1.6530 in late thin trade ahead of the new year celebrations. Rate
recovered to $1.6563 in continued thin trade into Asia Thursday (NZ and Japan
closed) with early demand able to take rate through its 2013 high and on to
$1.6592. A dip to $1.6575 quickly attracted further demand that edged rate back
to retest its early highs before picking up more demand as rate targeted the
reported barrier at $1.6600. Stops through the figure extended the move to
$1.6605 into Europe's open, with rate slowly easing back under the figure at
writing. Trading rooms should begin to see a return to full staff after the
holidays, though most expect normality to return Monday. Focus today will be on
EZ mfg PMI releases (starting with Spain at 0813GMT), with the UK release coming
at 0928GMT. US weekly jobless claims to follow at 1330GMT along with US PMI and
ISM at 1358GMT/1500GMT respectively. Cable offers now seen at $1.6605, stronger
into $1.6620 with next barrier noted at $1.6650. Support seen back at $1.6580
ahead of $1.6550 and $1.6530/20.
02-Jan-2014 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Aim For $1.6690 But Studies Still O/B
RES 4: $1.6690 Double-bottom measured move target
RES 3: $1.6653 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.6636 200-month MA
RES 1: $1.6618 High August 2011
LATEST PRICE: $1.6588
SUP 1: $1.6533/39 High Dec 30, 5-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6484 High Dec 18
SUP 3: $1.6443 High Dec 2
SUP 4: $1.6418 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6592
COMMENTARY: Cable continuing to stretch higher alongside rising tech studies;
daily/weekly and monthly studies all now push further into overbought territory
and we could see the bulls complete the measured move to $1.6690 from
double-bottom earlier this year. Next key resistance is 200-month MA at $1.6636
- a key level, noted ahead of here is the August 2011 monthly high at $1.6618.
Bears aim for the July support line at $1.6283 to break the bullish trend.
YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese currency started the new year continuing with recent
weakness in thin trading conditions, as markets in Tokyo remained closed for the
rest of the week. Dollar-yen opened at Y105.25 after trading a fresh 5-year high
of Y105.47 on New Year's Day while euro-yen opened at Y144.84 and then briefly
went up to a Y145.13 high. Dollar-yen also inched up in early dealings to
Y105.41 but failed to make further ground above that as trade flows dwindled.
The move also reportedly stalled ahead of rumored barriers at Y105.50 and
Y106.00, according to dealers. Dollar-yen retreated after Asian markets got
underway, with many of the region's main stock market indexes slipping in
initial trades. Euro-yen also gave up most of its early gains and slipped back
below Y145.00 to a low of Y144.80. Dollar-yen retreated further to a Y105.24 low
before talk of bids from below Y105.30 supported the downside while euro-yen was
held near Y144.90. Dollar-yen edged up a few notches in the early afternoon and
was last at Y105.28 while the cross traded at Y144.73. Overall, dollar-yen is
seen needing a move below the 21-day moving average at Y103.90 to counter
current bullish aspirations and hint at a deeper correction targeting Y101.62.
02-Jan-2014 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Stuck Just Below 61.8% At Y105.50
RES 4: Y107.28 200-month MA
RES 3: Y106.18 Resistance line from August 1998
RES 2: Y105.97 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y105.43/50 High Jan 1, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
LATEST PRICE: Y105.29
SUP 1: Y105.24/28 Hourly low, Nov 7 support line
SUP 2: Y104.87 Low Dec 31
SUP 3: Y104.60 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 4: Y103.90/92 21-DMA, High Dec 13
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen holds around the Y105.40 level and hit a new high at
Y105.43 - bears still pressure the Nov 7 support line which is now at Y105.28
and we look for a close below here to begin testing support. Studies are mainly
bullish but are all overbought and a break higher could extend gains to Y105.98
- the daily Bolli band top, while a break lower could start a new bearish trend.
Further support is the daily Tenkan line at Y104.60 and 21-DMA at Y103.90.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y106.20 Market stops
Y106.00 Offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
Y105.80 Strong offers, stops
Y105.50 61.8% of Y124.14-75.35/Option barrier
Y105.43 2013 high traded on Dec 30
Y105.42 Intraday high Asia
Y105.30 ***Current market rate 0644GMT Thursday
Y105.24 Intraday low Asia
Y105.25/10 Medium demand, PB buying noted sub Y105.30 in Asia/Stops
Y104.50 Medium demand
Y104.20 Medium demand
Y104.14 24 Dec low
Y104.00 Strong demand, stops
Y103.80/75 Medium demand (Y103.78/77 - 19 & 23 Dec lows)
Y103.70 Market stops
02-Jan-2014 7:45
EURO-YEN TECHS: Further Losses Risks Reversal In Sentiment
RES 4: Y146.89 3% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 3: Y145.60/69 Daily Bolli band top, High Dec 27
RES 2: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
RES 1: Y145.13/17 Hourly high, Dec 30 high
LATEST PRICE: Y144.82
SUP 1: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
SUP 2: Y143.90 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 3: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
SUP 4: Y142.28 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen now pressures the rising channel base which bears already
slipped below at Y144.83 - next support is now the Jan 1 low at Y144.42 and a
break below targets the daily Tenkan line at Y143.90. However, bulls need to
regain the channel to retest the Dec 27 high at Y145.69 to keep the bullish
trend going. But we note tech studies are all overbought and we may see some
sell-signals if bulls fail to retest resistance.
AUSSIE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*$0.9000 Strong offers, stops
*$0.8985/90 Medium offers
*$0.8980 Market stops
*$0.8958/60 23/Dec high/Medium offers/Stops
*$0.8953/55 Dec 31 high/medium offers ($0.8954 - 21-dma)
*$0.8937 76.4% $0.8953-0.8885
*$0.8926 Intraday high Asia ($0.8927 61.8% $0.8953-0.8885)
*$0.8919 ***Current market price 0632GMT Thursday
*$0.8885 Intraday low Asia
*$0.8880 Medium demand/$0.8879 61.8% $0.8834-0.8953
*$0.8834 Dec30 low
*$0.8825/20 Strong demand ($0.8822 - 18 Dec low)
*$0.8800 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
*$0.8780 Large stops
*$0.8771 25 Oct low
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y104.00
* Aussie; $0.8800, $0.8950, $0.9000
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Witam wszystkich. Szczęśliwego w nowym 2014.
Powiedzcie proszę, co z tym kablem. GDzie ten sufit, up bez przerwy? Mam otwartą pozycję 1,63 i nie wiem o robić dalej... Zamykać czy czekać na korektę...
analizy same sie nie zrobią 
na pare minut zeby rozprostowac kości 
, do zamkniecia luki na a/u jeszcze kilka pipsow, pierwsze tp w tym roku
):)
