1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Thursday at $1.3662 after rate had
consolidated its post FOMC taper corrective pullback below $1.3700, with rate
held within an intraday range of $1.3650/95. While rate held below the
$1.3700/30 area the recent underlying heavy tone remained in place with rate
soon under fresh pressure into Asia as it backed away from its early posted high
of $1.3668. Asian sovereign supply was reported in the initial corrective pull
back, though traders linked the heavier sales to euro-yen, as rate eased through
$1.3650 and tripped stops on the move below $1.3640. Rate met demand at $1.3632
which cushioned the initial break but recovery efforts remained below $1.3650.
Into the Asian afternoon and rate came under another round of sell pressure as
rate extended losses to $1.3626. Traders in recent sessions have noted demand in
place between $1.3625/15 ($1.3614 38.2% $1.3295-1.3811), with talk of stronger
interest positioned into $1.3600. Offers now seen into broken support at
$1.3650, more between $1.3690/1.3700. Asian traders have noted macro demand
interest into $1.3600, the parties seen short ahead of $1.3700 on the back of
long euro calls.
20-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Eye Nov 7 Support Line At $1.3618
RES 4: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
RES 3: $1.3769 High Dec 13
RES 2: $1.3702/09 5-DMA, Low Dec 13
RES 1: $1.3675/81 Low Dec 18, Reversal high Apr 2007
LATEST PRICE: $1.3636
SUP 1: $1.3614/18 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811, Nov 7 support line
SUP 2: $1.3578 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832
SUP 3: $1.3554 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
SUP 4: $1.3493/97 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832, 100-DMA
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar fades after failed break above $1.3800 on Weds - daily
studies in sell-mode and bears look to break below key initial support from
38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811 and Nov 7 support line at $1.3614/18. A break and close
below could start a slide to 200-DMA at $1.3276, and a long-term support line
seen around $1.3080, but ahead of here key suppt just below $1.3500. However,
failure at Nov 7 suppt line could see bulls return while monthly studies rise.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3811 Dec18 high post taper bounce off $1.3705/Dec11 high
*$1.3770/80 Medium offers
*$1.3750 Strong offers
*$1.3730 Strong offers/Stops
*$1.3700/10 Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3694 Thursday Dec19 high
*$1.3680 Medium offers
*$1.3668 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.3650 Broken support now resistance
*$1.3635 ***Current mkt rate 0646GMT Friday
*$1.3626 Int.Day low Asia
*$1.3620 Initial NFP react low/Strong demand to $1.3600
*$1.3614-08 38.2% $1.3295-1.3811/T-line from Nov7 low $1.3295
*$1.3600 Strong demand on approach (macro interest mentioned)
*$1.3590 Medium demand/$1.3585-70 Stops
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.6367 after rate had managed
to recover off extended corrective pullback lows of $1.6335 to $1.6390 before it
drifted lower into the close. Rate marked early highs in Asia at $1.6390 before
turning lower again, the rate meeting demand placed into $1.6350 which based the
move at $1.6352. Recovery met resistance from offers placed between $1.6370/75
($1.6371-75 50%-61.8% $1.6390-52)before turning lower again into the Asian
afternoon, with the break higher in dollar-yen above Y104.50 prompting dollar
demand across the board which has seen cable ease back to retest earlier lows
ahead of the European open. Euro-sterling trade was confined to a
stg0.8331/0.83465 range with rate favouring the lower end into Europe. UK public
borrowing data and the Q3 GDP third reading due at 0930GMT, ahead of BOE Haldane
speaking at 1100GMT, provides the morning's interest. Sterling retains an
underlying buoyant tone with most expecting the pound to make further gains
versus the euro.
20-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bears Eye July Support Line At $1.6179
RES 4: $1.6583 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.6473/84 Daily Bolli band top, High Dec 18
RES 2: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
RES 1: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
LATEST PRICE: $1.6356
SUP 1: $1.6333/36 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484
SUP 2: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
SUP 3: $1.6244 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6484
SUP 4: $1.6200 High Nov 21
COMMENTARY: Cable continues to hold above the new 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484,
initial support alongside the 21-DMA at $1.6333/36. Bears aim to break below
here while weekly studies look overbought and likely look to test the July
support line at $1.6179 - but first need to break through support at $1.6244 -
the 38.2% level. However, failure to test the July support line adds risk higher
and would show bullish pressure which could see a retest of $1.6484 Dec 18 high.
YEN SUMMARY: End of the week saw dollar-yen opened at Y104.24 while euro-yen
opened at Y142.40, gotobi day demand lifted the rates higher to an initial high
of Y104.44 & Y142.44 as offers & barrier at Y104.50 capped dollar-yen's advance.
The rates eased off to Y104.26 & Y142.20 (session low) on back of heavy offers
and lower dollar index but renewed demand boosted another move higher to hit
session high of Y104.48 & Y142.52 but heavy offers on the platforms and European
names at Y104.47-48, defending the Y104.50 option barrier capped dollar-yen.
Dollar-yen holding firm at Y104.46 before Europe steps in while euro-yen at
Y142.43 which was sold off earlier as dollar index hits fresh daily high, euro
sold off to fresh session low of $1.3626 last and euro-yen slides to Y142.35
last. Dollar-yen registered fresh multi-year highs after breaching above
yesterday's high of Y104.38 but euro-yen trade sideways, a break above Y142.90
is needed to establish bullish bias. BOJ ended a 2-day policy meeting and left
rates unchanged as widely expected, without much impact on the exchange rates.
The Nikkei 225 index snapped yesterday's gains to fall 0.20% last.
NEWS: JAPAN'S NIKKEI 225 INDEX ENDS UP 0.07% AT 15870.42
20-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Squeeze Higher Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: Y105.82 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
RES 2: Y104.79 2% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 1: Y104.59 Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: Y104.47
SUP 1: Y103.92 High Dec 13
SUP 2: Y103.38/55 Daily Tenkan, Nov 7 support line
SUP 3: Y102.95 23.6% of Y97.62-104.59
SUP 4: Y102.74 21-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen continues to stretch higher despite overbought studies
and has managed to hold above the Y104.00 level for the past three sessions.
Bulls continue to eye the topside and already tested above the daily Bolli top
at Y104.48 - above here now is the 2% 21-DMA envelope top at Y104.79. However,
failure at resistance could send studies lower to test support below the Y104.00
level - Dec 13 high is at Y103.92 and the daily Tenkan line is at Y103.38.
20-Dec-2013 7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Continue To Fail Ahead Of Y143.00
RES 4: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
RES 3: Y144.52 3% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 2: Y143.80/99 Daily Bolli top, Rising channel top
RES 1: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
LATEST PRICE: Y142.30
SUP 1: Y141.91 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y141.69/71 High Dec 11, Channel base
SUP 3: Y141.22 Low Dec 16
SUP 4: Y140.99 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen continues to trade just below the Y142.90 high from Dec 18
which is key initial resistance - a break above likely targets the daily Bolli
band top at Y143.80, however studies are mainly overbought and failure to break
above Y143.00 likely sees bears take control. Initial support is the daily
Tenkan line at Y141.91 and just below is the rising channel base at Y141.71. A
close below the channel base would open the downside to further losses.
W Niemczech też chyba trzeba płacić podatki z dochodów otrzymanych z BTC.
Forexnese IB: IC Markets, Pepperstone, Global Prime (bezpośrednia zniżka prowizyjna). Link w profilu. Support dla klientów w języku polskim - szczegóły na priv.
