EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Wednesday at $1.3685 after a volatile
reaction to the Fed's announcement to taper QE by $10bln pm. Rate initially
dropped to $1.3705 but quickly rallied back as any hawkish feel was quickly
quashed by counter dovish comment that saw rate rally back hard to $1.3811.
Failure to build saw rate reverse, the corrective pullback gained momentum in
thin conditions to extend lows to $1.3674. Rate recovered to $1.3705 before
resuming easing into the close. Easing continued into Asia. $1.3675/70 provided
early cushioning before heavy sales of euro-Aussie filled this interest and
extended lows to $1.3768. Rate recovered to $1.3694 before it met euro-yen
linked supply. Rate retested the earlier low and was then punched down to
$1.3650 on reported North Asian lifer supply. Rate recovered to the broken
support at $1.3668 ahead of the European open. Bids remain into $1.3650 with
system stops on a break of $1.3640. Offers to $1.3680, a break to open a move
back toward $1.3700/05. Continued analysis of the Fed move, and any official
reaction, in focus. US data to the fore as further tapering data dependent.
Weekly jobless claims, Phila Fad and existing home sales later.
19-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Sinks From $1.3811 Double-Top - Daily Studies Slide
RES 4: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 3: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
RES 2: $1.3724 5-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3707/09 Former channel base, Low Dec 13
LATEST PRICE: $1.3662
SUP 1: $1.3650 21-DMA & Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.3608/14 Nov 7 support line, 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811
SUP 3: $1.3578 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832
SUP 4: $1.3554 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar rose to retest $1.3811 high and met strong resistance to
leave a mini double-top before sinking through support - double-top targets a
move to $1.3607 which is also a Nov 7 support line. Daily studies turned south
but bulls may retest the channel base as resistance at $1.3707, however failure
here adds downside pressure. A break below $1.3608/14 could confirm a bearish
trend and see a move to strong support around $1.3493 - the 61.8% and 100-DMA.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY at $1.6384 after rate had seen a pullback
low of $1.6344 from $1.6410 on the Fed taper announcement, but quickly spiked
back up to $1.6486 as accompanying comments countered the initial hawkish
reaction. Cable eased off high to $1.6366, recovered to $1.6408 before drifting
lower into the close. Wednesday was seen as a good day for sterling, the key UK
employment rate eased to 7.4%, better than the forecast median, and had taken
cable to earlier session highs of $1.6370, from intraday lows of $1.6275,
extending this recovery to $1.6405 in late Europe as sterling was seen as a good
long bet into the FOMC decision. Euro-sterling, which had seen extended highs of
stg0.8467 Tuesday, was seen as the key vehicle for the long sterling play, and
reversed away from Wednesday's high of stg0.8466 to stg0.8375 pre taper, before
this corrective pullback extended to stg0.8345 post taper. This move lower in
the cross provided cablwe with an underlying buoyant tone despite feeling the
downside pull from euro-dollar. Euro-sterling extended lows to stg0.8340 in
Asia, trading around stg0.8350 into Europe. UK retail sales at 0930GMT in focus
next ahead of US weekly claims, Phila Fed and housing data this afternoon.
19-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Big Jump Adds Risk Higher - Bulls Eye $1.6484
RES 4: $1.6586 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.6476/84 Daily Bolli band top, High Dec 18
RES 2: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
RES 1: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
LATEST PRICE: $1.6375
SUP 1: $1.6336 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484
SUP 2: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
SUP 3: $1.6244 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6484
SUP 4: $1.6200 High Nov 21
COMMENTARY: Cable burst higher to hit $1.6484 and test the daily Bolli band top
but also left a decent upper shadow which cautions bulls. Further gains could
see daily studies reverse higher, however we note weekly studies remain
overbought and the weekly chart shows an outside-week candle. Bears continue to
eye the July support line now at $1.6167, but we also remind monthly studies
remain bullish so we may see a retest of resistance in the longer-term.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen opened higher at Y104.28 while euro-yen also higher at
Y142.71 in Asia post FOMC and pulled back lower from session highs of Y104.38 &
Y142.84 to hit daily lows of Y103.78 & Y142.84 respectively. Post FOMC saw yen
crosses rallied overnight, triggering stops and short covering during NY session
but saw this morning in Asia saw heavy profit taking sending both rates lower
while pausing at levels of Y104.04 & Y142.42, Y104.02 & Y142.28 and Y103.78 &
Y141.90. Thereafter buyers supported dollar-yen while euro-yen cross selling
continued as it slid to session low of Y141.87 and the euro-dollar started the
decline amid a fairly tight range morning. Dollar-yen rebounded higher as it
consolidated between Y103.91 to Y104.00 before bouncing to current level of
Y104.07, while euro-yen found buying interest and rebounds to Y142.19 last. The
Nikkei rallied following overnight rally in US stocks as market perceived it as
a 'dovish' taper, boosting riskier assets and the index rose 1.85% in afternoon
session. This provided support for yen crosses though there were heavy
liquidation in the yen, ahead of BOJ policy announcement tomorrow as the central
bank started a two-day policy meeting today.
19-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Long White Candle Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: Y105.65 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
RES 2: Y104.62 2% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 1: Y104.36 High Dec 18
LATEST PRICE: Y104.09
SUP 1: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
SUP 2: Y103.26/36 Daily Tenkan, Nov 7 support line
SUP 3: Y102.77 23.6% of Y97.62-104.36
SUP 4: Y102.57 21-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen also stormed higher to hit Y104.36 which was yesterday's
2% 21-day MA envelope top which has moved up to Y104.62. Daily studies have no
directions while weekly-monthly studies look bullish but overbought. A break
above yesterday's high targets the 2% envelope top and above here resistance
becomes thin up - the 61.8% of Y124.14-75.35 is at Y105.50. Downside pressure
remains and bears eye the daily Tenkan and Nov 7 support line at Y103.26/36.
19-Dec-2013 7:41
EURO-YEN TECHS: Failure To Test Y143.00 Could Reverse Sentiment
RES 4: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
RES 3: Y144.22 3% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 2: Y143.64/73 Rising channel top, Daily Bolli top
RES 1: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
LATEST PRICE: Y142.16
SUP 1: Y141.69/79 High Dec 11, Daily Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y141.22/36 Low Dec 16, Channel base
SUP 3: Y140.99 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
SUP 4: Y140.02/14 21-DMA, 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen moves up to test resistance just below the Y143.00 level -
new high is made at Y142.90 which bulls look to retest, however we remind that
studies are all overbought and further failure to break above Y143.00 adds
downside risk. Initial support is the daily Tenkan line at Y141.79 and below
here is Nov 8 channel base at Y141.36 then key support is seen just above the
Y140.00 level from the 23.6% at Y140.14 and 21-DMA at Y140.02.
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
including DTCC
* Dollar-yen; Y102.50, Y102.85, Y103.00(VL), Y103.50, Y103.70
* Euro-dollar; $1.3500, $1.3530, $1.3540, $1.3670, $1.3770, $1.3780, $1.3800,
$1.3865
* Cable; $1.6150, $1.6400
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8500
* Aussie; $0.8710(L), $0.8900(L), $0.8950, Exotic $0.8500(OT-$10mln)
-- Dodano: czw 19-12-2013, 7:47 --
molmomas pisze:cześć, może mi ktoś opowiedzieć co się wczoraj stało, bo nie było mnie na forexie cały dzień i nie wiem co i jak, a widzę że się działo...
pozdrawiam
http://forex-nawigator.biz/forum/daytra ... ml#p638511
poniżej jest HIT dnia
http://forex-nawigator.biz/forum/daytra ... ml#p638842
