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20:00 Stany Zjednoczone FOMC Rate Decision dec-18 0.25% 0.25%
20:00 Stany Zjednoczone Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections
20:00 Stany Zjednoczone Fed Pace of MBS Purchases Dec $40 $40
20:00 Stany Zjednoczone Fed Pace of Treasury Pur Dec $45 $45
20:30 Stany Zjednoczone Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Tuesday at $1.3767 after rate had pulled
back from an early Europe high of $1.3782 to a late Europe-NY low of $1.3723
before recovering to $1.3775 ahead of the close. Position adjustments ahead of
this evening's key FOMC announcement with the start to a QE taper still in the
balance. Rate nudged to an early high of $1.3772 before turning lower and
marking overnight lows at $1.3763. Fresh demand, linked to the positive Nikkei
open and demand for euro-yen, emerged to take euro-dollar to overnight highs of
$1.3775, with rate holding firm into Europe. Germany Ifo data due at 0900GMT to
provide the morning's focus though the mentioned FOMC later will overshadow.
Offers remain in place at $1.3775/85, with stronger interest noted from $1.3800
through to $1.3820. A break here will bring the 2013 high of $1.3833 ($1.3833
61.8% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12; Oct25 high) into view, with a break here to
expose heavier sell interest placed ahead of $1.3850. Bids begin from around
$1.3750 and are said to extend down to $1.3730/20. Traders still see potential
for an end year push higher, though still look for best levels to enter fresh
shorts.
18-Dec-2013
7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Holds Below $1.3800 - Daily Studies Overbought
RES 4: $1.3958 50.0% of $1.6038-1.1877
RES 3: $1.3852/54 High Jul 2007, Weekly Bolli band top
RES 2: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 1: $1.3799/3803 High Dec 16, High Dec 12
LATEST PRICE: $1.3774
SUP 1: $1.3760 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.3734/41 Lows Dec 10, 11
SUP 3: $1.3704/09 High Oct 18, Low Dec 13
SUP 4: $1.3689 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3811
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar continues to trade just below the $1.3800 level which
bulls may retest while they eye the $1.3832 Oct 28 reversal high. A break above
may be short-lived as daily studies are firmly in overbought territory, however,
weekly and monthly studies are bullish albeit near overbought also. Daily
studies may reverse lower if bulls fail to retest $1.3832, initial support is
the 5-DMA at $1.3760 and below here is the 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3811 at $1.3689.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3850 Strong offers on approach/Option barrier
*$1.3830/35 Strong offers/$1.3833 61.8% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12; Oct25
high
*$1.3815/20 Strong offers/$1.3825 Stops
*$1.3811 Dec11 high (NY)
*$1.3800/05 Strong offers/$1.3800 Dec16-$1.3803 Dec12 highs
*$1.3775/85 Medium offers/$1.3782 Tuesday Dec17 high
*$1.3775 Int.Day high Asia (matches NY recovery off $1.3723)
*$1.3770 ***Current mkt rate 0627GMT Wednesday
*$1.3763 Int.Day low Asia
*$1.3750 Medium demand
*$1.3730/20 Medium demand/$1.3723 Tues Dec17 low
*$1.3710/00 Strong demand/$1.3709 Dec13 low
*$1.3694 Monday Dec9 low/$1.3693 61.8% $1.3620-1.3811
*$1.3690 System stops
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Tuesday at $1.6266 after recovering off a
session low of $1.6214 to $1.6280 before drifting off into the close. The pound
had lost ground Tuesday following the release of softer than forecast UK
inflation data, with reported stops sub $1.6260, $1.6240 and then $1.6220
targeted and triggered, with stops above stg0.8465 also tripped as the cross was
forced to a high of stg0.8467. These near term downside stops now cleared sees
rate fairly clean as market turns its attention toward today's key UK jobs
report at 0930GMT. Cable resumed its recovery through Asia, the rate edging to
an overnight high of $1.6290, with pullbacks ahead of Europe so far holding
above $1.6280. Euro-sterling consolidated Tuesday's rally between stg0.8455/65
in Asia, leaving cable to take main direction from euro-dollar moves. Traders
continue to favour shorting euro-sterling, most leaving stops through
stg0.8500-25. UK CBI reported sales at 1100GMT only expected to have a limited
effect (unless way out of line with median +10) as traders will be turning
attention toward this evening's FOMC decision, with a start to QE tapering still
seen in the balance.
18-Dec-2013
7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bounced From 38.2% At $1.6233
RES 4: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
RES 3: $1.6358/60 High Nov 28, High Dec 13
RES 2: $1.6321 Low Dec 12
RES 1: $1.6299/6307 5-DMA, 21-DMA
LATEST PRICE: $1.6285
SUP 1: $1.6260/63 High Oct 1, Low Dec 13
SUP 2: $1.6233 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466
SUP 3: $1.6200 High Nov 21
SUP 4: $1.6157/61 55-DMA, 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6466
COMMENTARY: Cable declined to test support around the 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466
still at $1.6233 and key support. Price action today looks to test initial
resistance around the $1.6300 level - $1.6299/6307 and formed from the 5 and
21-DMAs. A break above could see daily studies reverse higher, however we note
weekly studies are overbought and bears likely eye a test of the July support
line which is now at $1.6156 - a move below could start a new bearish trend.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.6418 Dec12 high
*$1.6390/400 Medium offers
*$1.6380 Minor offers
*$1.6350/60 Strong offers/$1.6360 Dec13 high/Stops
*$1.6349 Dec16 high
*$1.6336 Tuesday Dec17 high
*$1.6307 76.4% $1.6336-1.6214/Offers to $1.6310
*$1.6290 Int.Day high Asia/$1.6289 61.8% $1.6336-1.6214
*$1.6284 ***Current market rate 0635GMT Wednesday
*$1.6262 Int.Day low Europe into NY
*$1.6250/40 Medium demand/$1.6252-43 50%-61.8% $1.6214-90
*$1.6232 76.4% $1.6214-90
*$1.6214 Tues Dec17 low
*$1.6200 Medium demand/$1.6198 Nov27 low/Stops
*$1.6168 NY pullback low Nov26
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*stg0.8520/30 Medium offers
*stg0.8506 76.4% stg0.8585-0.8252
*stg0.8500 Strong offers
*stg0.8475/80 Medium offers
*stg0.8467 Tues Dec17 high/Strong offers on approach
*stg0.8465 Int.Day high Asia
*stg0.8457 ***Current market rate 0703GMT Wednesday
*stg0.8455 Int.Day low Asia
*stg0.8435/30 Medium demand
*stg0.8415/10 Medium demand
*stg0.8395/90 Area of pullback lows Dec12 off stg0.8431
*stg0.8380 Medium demand
*stg0.8364 Wednesday Dec11 low
YEN SUMMARY: Another yen play dominated session in Asia, dollar-yen started at
Y102.67 while euro-yen opened at Y141.35 and the rates dipped to session lows of
Y102.56 & Y141.23 respectively before rebounding back to highs of Y102.70 &
Y141.41. Dollar-yen surged to fresh high of Y102.95 from Y102.65 after Japan
trade data but eased off to Y102.74 while euro-yen hit a high of Y141.74 before
a pullback to Y141.44 to stage a rally to daily high of Y141.89 and dollar-yen
jumped to hit intraday high of Y103.04, just shy of NY's high of Y103.06 and
below Asia high of Y103.13 yesterday. The rates unable to break higher saw
liquidation of profits before Europe steps in and retreats to Y102.94 & Y141.79
currently in afternoon session. Though Japan exports rose for the 9th straight
time but imports rose for the 13th straight time which led to a widening trade
deficit, albeit lower than market expectations. Weaker yen as compared to last
year hasn't push export volume as much as expected and imports expected to
continue outpacing exports. The Nikkei advanced 1.52% last on better exports
numbers and yen cross buying with demand for dollar-yen during Tokyo fix kept
dollar-yen supported.
NEWS: JAPAN'S NIKKEI 225 INDEX ENDS UP 2.02% AT 15587.80
18-Dec-2013
7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Failed At 23.6% But Studies Still Overbought
RES 4: Y104.36 2% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y103.92/98 High Dec 13, Daily Bolli top
RES 2: Y103.36/39 Weekly Bolli top, High Dec 10
RES 1: Y103.17 Former support line from Nov 7 low
LATEST PRICE: Y103.00
SUP 1: Y102.32/43 21-DMA, 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92
SUP 2: Y101.98 Low Dec 3
SUP 3: Y101.51 Daily Kijun & 38.2% of Y97.62-103.92
SUP 4: Y100.61/77 Sept 11 high, 50.0% of Y97.62-103.92
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen holds above 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92 - now initial support
at Y102.43, which bears still eye. However, current price action edged above the
daily Tenkan line and now looks to retest the former support line from Nov 7 at
Y103.17, a break above may spur bulls to retest the Dec 13 reversal high at
Y103.92. However, studies are mostly overbought and weekly studies look about to
reverse lower - bears aim to break below the 23.6% to test the Y102.00 level.
18-Dec-2013
7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Holds In Channel But Studies Still O/B
RES 4: Y143.29 Rising channel top
RES 3: Y142.83 High Dec 13
RES 2: Y142.12/17 Highs Dec 16, 10
RES 1: Y141.95 High Dec 17
LATEST PRICE: Y141.77
SUP 1: Y141.22 Low Dec 16
SUP 2: Y140.89/99 Daily Tenkan line, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
SUP 3: Y140.20 Oct 2005 high
SUP 4: Y140.03/09 High Dec 3, 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen still holds in rising channel despite the base moving up to
Y141.02. Bulls aim to retest Dec 13 high at Y142.83, however downside pressure
mounts as studies look overbought and daily studies are edging lower. Failure to
retest Y142.83 could see bears break below the channel base to test the daily
Tenkan line at Y140.89 with focus on a test of the 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83 at
Y140.09. Below here is the 21-DMA at Y139.60 and the 38.2% at Y138.39.
AUSSIE: SUMMARY: The Aussie remains on the weak side despite a lift after RBA
Governor Stevens and other Board members fronted the House Economic Committee
earlier in the session. Despite traders universally seeing his comments as being
somewhat hawkish, the overall feeling that $0.85 needs to be seen before any
recovery can be sustained is pervasive. Stevens implied that yes, the RBA could
cut rates again if necessary, but were unlikely to need to as a more important
dynamic right now is improving confidence in businesses to borrow and cash-rich
banks to lend, by improving structural supply-side issues such as productivity,
workplace flexibility, strong infrastructure growth and moving towards a tax
system that promotes innovation and growth. Direct intervention in the market
was a possibility but he preferred to be ambiguous on the topic, seemingly to
maximise effect, but had also said that he had thought about intervention many
times in the past few years but hadn't. So it seems very unlikely here. The AUD
rose from the $0.8890s to the $0.8920s, but ran into technical selling
(worryingly, off very weak resistance on the hourlies) and drifted lower for the
rest of the session, to sit just above $0.8900 as of writing.
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y102.50, Y102.60, Y102.80, Y102.85, Y102.95,
Y103.00(VL), Y103.20,
Y103.50(VL),
Y104.00(VL)
* Euro-dollar; $1.3650, $1.3685, $1.3700, $1.3735, $1.3745, $1.3750, $1.3800
* Cable; $1.6145, $1.6300
* Euro-Sek; Sek9.04
* Aussie; $0.8890,
$0.8900(L), $0.8950, $0.8975, $0.9000
* Kiwi; $0.8250, $0.8350
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0450, C$1.0500, C$1.0550, C$1.0570, C$1.0700
