1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 16 ECB President Draghi Speaks to European Parliament, Brussels 1400GMT
- Dec 16 Draghi speaks as Chair of ESRB before Economic/Monetary Affairs
- Dec 16 IMF to publish preliminary results on Spanish bank review
- Dec 16 EMU Dec flash manufacturing/services PMI
- Dec 17 German Dec ZEW business survey
- Dec 17 German Dec IFO business survey
- Dec 17 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
- Dec 17 EU FinMin meeting in Brussels
- Dec 19/20 European Leaders Summit in Brussels
- Dec 19 Spain taps 2018-/2023 bonds
- Dec 20 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment (settles Dec 23)
- Dec 20 EMU flash PMI
- Dec 23 EMU Q3 government debt data
- Dec 25 Christmas day holiday
- Dec 27 Italy CTZ/linker auction
Kalendarium / Okres / Konsensus/Poprzedni odczyt
09:00 Francja PMI Manufacturing Dec P 48.8 48.4
09:00 Francja PMI Services Dec P 48.5 48.0
09:30 Niemcy PMI Manufacturing Dec A 52.9 52.7
09:30 Niemcy PMI Services Dec A 55.1 55.7
10:00 Unia Europejska PMI Manufacturing Dec A 51.8 51.6
10:00 Unia Europejska PMI Services Dec A 51.4 51.2
10:00 Unia Europejska PMI Composite Dec A 51.9 51.7
10:00 Włochy Trade Balance Total Oct -- 794M
10:00 Włochy Trade Balance EU Oct -- 472M
10:00 Norwegia Trade Balance NOK Nov -- 26.7B
10:00 Szwecja Sweden's ESV Budget Forecasts
11:00 Unia Europejska Trade Balance SA Oct -- 14.3B
11:00 Unia Europejska Trade Balance NSA Oct -- 13.1B
12:00 Wielka Brytania CBI Trends Total Orders Dec -- 11
12:00 Wielka Brytania CBI Trends Selling Prices Dec -- 5
14:30 Kanada Int'l Securities Transactions Oct -- 8.36B
14:30 Stany Zjednoczone Empire Manufacturing Dec 5.00 -2.21
14:30 Stany Zjednoczone Nonfarm Productivity 3Q F 2.8% 1.9%
14:30 Stany Zjednoczone Unit Labor Costs 3Q F -1.4% -0.6%
14:58 Stany Zjednoczone Markit US PMI Preliminary Dec -- 54.3
15:00 Kanada Existing Home Sales MoM Nov -- -3.2%
15:00 Stany Zjednoczone Total Net TIC Flows Oct -- -$106.8B
15:00 Stany Zjednoczone Net Long-term TIC Flows Oct -- $25.5B 15:00 Unia Europejska ECB President Draghi Speaks to European Parliament in Brussels
15:15 Stany Zjednoczone Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.6% -0.1%
15:15 Stany Zjednoczone Capacity Utilization Nov 78.4% 78.1%
15:15 Stany Zjednoczone Manufacturing (SIC) Production Nov 0.4% 0.3%
16:00 Kanada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence dec-13 -- 59.3 18:00 Szwajcaria SNB's Zurbruegg Holds Speech in Zurich
EURO SUMMARY: Yen play dominated Asia trading session with market turning to yen
strength, as compared to yen weakness during last Friday's Asia session.
Euro-dollar started the week at $1.3741 in Asia morning, lower from last week's
openings and marked a range of $1.3727 to $1.3761 so far. The pair slipped to
session low in early Sydney session before rebounding back to the opening level
when Asia stepped in, on the back of euro-yen buying and the cross hit a high of
Y141.92 after Tankan survey. However, euro-yen quickly reversed gains after the
knee-jerk reaction and offers pushed it to Y141.69 while the euro held steady at
$1.3739. Renewed buying interest in euro-yen forced the euro to $1.3751 before
weaker-than-expected China flash manufacturing PMI was released, thereafter
Chinese banks bought after the data pushing it to mark an intraday high of
$1.3761. The euro was stuck between $1.3755-1.3760 range when both dollar-yen
and euro-yen headed southwards to register fresh lows, it drifted lower to
$1.3748 after on back of short covering in dollar-yen which pushed it to touch
Y102.91. The euro rebounds higher to settle at $1.3756 last.
16-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Daily Studies Bearish But Bulls Still Eye $1.3832
RES 4: $1.3852/66 High Jul 2007, Monthly Bolli band top
RES 3: $1.3824/32 Daily Bolli top, High Oct 28
RES 2: $1.3795/3803 High Dec 10, High Dec 12
RES 1: $1.3769 High Dec 13
LATEST PRICE: $1.3750
SUP 1: $1.3704/09 High Oct 18, Low Dec 13
SUP 2: $1.3681/83 Reversal high Apr 2007, Rising channel base
SUP 3: $1.3614/20 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811, 21-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3598 High Oct 14
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar slid to bounce from support just above $1.3700 and left
a lower high and low. Bears look to retest while daily studies look overbought
and a break below $1.3700 targets a test of 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3811 at $1.3689,
just above the rising channel base at $1.3683. However, weekly/monthly studies
remain in an uptrend which would encourage bulls to retest the highs above
$1.3800 - the Oct 28 high at $1.3832 is still key resistance.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3850 Strong offers/Option barrier
*$1.3830/35 Strong offers/$1.3833 61.8% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12
*$1.3815/20 Strong offers/$1.3825 Stops
*$1.3811 Weds Dec11 high (NY)
*$1.3790-805 Medium offers/$1.3803 Dec12 high
*$1.3780 Medium offers
*$1.3761/69 Asia & 13 Dec highs
*$1.3755 ***Current mkt rate 0632GMT Monday
*$1.3727 Asia low
*$1.3709 13 Dec low
*$1.3705/00 Medium demand
*$1.3694 Monday Dec9 low/$1.3693 61.8% $1.3620-1.3811
*$1.3690 System stops
*$1.3683/81 Rising channel base, Reversal high Apr 2007
*$1.3670/65 Medium demand
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Friday at $1.6295, the rate recovered off
pullback lows of $1.6262 after earlier printing an Asian session high of
$1.6360. Euro-sterling closed at stg0.8430, towards the upper-end of a narrow
stg0.8408-40 trading range. A very quiet Asian session saw cable contained to a
narrow $1.6288-1.6309 overnight range. Broad based dollar weakness in early
trade lifted the rate through $1.6300 to intraday highs, but with lack of follow
through stalled to settle around $1.6295-1.6305 for the remainder of the
session. Offers are seen capping the topside through $1.6320-40, more into
$1.6355/60 ($1.6354/60 (5 dma, 13 Dec high). Euro-sterling tracked euro-dollar
moves throughout the session and lifted to fresh 5 week highs of stg0.8442,
before running into strong offers ahead of stg0.8445/50. Profit take sales added
weight and the cross settled around stg0.8435/40 ahead of the European open. A
busy schedule is expected to provide direction this week in thinned out
Christmas markets as dealers look ahead to data releases from UK CPI on Tuesday,
FOMC rate decision/minutes on Wednesday, UK Retail Sales on Thursday, followed
by UK GDP on Friday.
16-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bears Eye July Support Line At $1.6133
RES 4: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
RES 3: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
RES 2: $1.6354 5-day moving average
RES 1: $1.6321 Low Dec 12
LATEST PRICE: $1.6300
SUP 1: $1.6260/63 High Oct 1, Low Dec 13
SUP 2: $1.6233 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466
SUP 3: $1.6200 High Nov 21
SUP 4: $1.6154/61 55-DMA, 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6466
COMMENTARY: Cable declines to the 21-DMA now at $1.6292 - bears look to close
below while daily studies decline. Support below seen at $1.6263, Friday's low,
and below here is the 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466 at $1.6233. Further losses could
see bears target the July support line at $1.6133, however, failure to move
below Friday's low could see bulls return and target a retest of the Dec 10 high
at $1.6466. Ahead of here, initial resistance is at $1.6321 - the Dec 12 low.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.6458 Wednesday Dec11 high
*$1.6420/30 Medium offers/$1.6430 76.4% $1.6458-1.6340
*$1.6418 Dec12 high
*$1.6395/400 Medium offers
*$1.6380 Medium offers
*$1.6355/60 Medium offers ($1.6354/60 - 5 dma, 13 Dec high)
*$1.6320/40 Layered offers
*$1.6306 ***Current market rate 0636GMT Monday
*$1.6292/88 21 dma, Asia low
*$1.6280 Medium demand
*$1.6262 13 Dec low
*$1.6250 Strong demand
*$1.6240 Medium demand/Stops
*$1.6233 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466
*$1.6220 Medium demand/Large stops
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*stg0.8550 Strong offers, stops
*stg0.8520/30 Medium offers
*stg0.8500 Strong offers (stg0.8497 - 200 dma)
*stg0.8475/80 Medium offers on approach/stg0.8476 61.8% stg0.8585-0.8300
*stg0.8461/64 100 dma, Weds Nov13 high
*stg0.8445/50 Strong offers
*stg0.8443 Asia high
*stg0.8435 ***Current market rate 0639GMT Monday
*stg0.8422 Asia low
*stg0.8417/13 55 & 5 dma's
*stg0.8395/90 Area of pullback lows Thursday off stg0.8431
*stg0.8380 Medium demand
*stg0.8364/60 Wednesday Dec11 low, 21 dma
*stg0.8355/45 Medium demand/stg0.8348 Dec6 low
*stg0.8330/20 Strong demand/Stops
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen started the week at Y103.28 in Asia morning while
euro-yen opened at Y141.76, knee-jerk reaction after Tankan survey nudged both
pairs higher to touch session high of Y103.30 & Y141.92 respectively before
reversing lower after digesting the data. Weaker-than-expected HSBC China
manufacturing PMI data found the market unwinding longs sending both pairs down
to Y103.00 & Y141.66, pausing there before more offers continue to weigh on the
rates and dollar bears pushed it lower to trigger stop-losses below Y103.00
(NY's low last Friday) & Y102.90. The weak Chinese data and thinner market
conditions pushed the rates down to hit a daily low of Y102.65 after pausing at
Y102.84 and Y102.71, while more unwinding in euro-yen sent it to a fresh day's
low of Y141.22 before settling at Y102.85 and Y141.44 last. The euro-yen sits
near last Friday's low of Y141.42 before Europe steps in to digest the softer
Chinese manufacturing PMI. Asian stocks fell led by the Nikkei as it declined
1.15% last.
16-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Potential Shooting-Star Reversal Pattern
RES 4: Y105.10 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y104.08/09 2% 21-day MA envelope top, Daily Bolli top
RES 2: Y103.92 High Dec 13
RES 1: Y103.39 High Dec 10
LATEST PRICE: Y102.76
SUP 1: Y102.43 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92
SUP 2: Y101.98/102.04 Low Dec 3, 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y101.43/51 Daily Kijun, 38.2% of Y97.62-103.92
SUP 4: Y100.61/77 Sept 11 high, 50.0% of Y97.62-103.92
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen descends from the new high at Y103.92 as bears look to
close below the support line from Nov 7 low - initial support now at Y102.43 -
the 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92, a break below here targets the 21-DMA at Y102.04.
Studies are mainly overbought and a close around initial support would form a
shooting-star reversal pattern. Below the 21-DMA, further support is around
Y101.43/51 - the daily Kijun line and 38.2% level.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y104.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*Y103.92 2013 high - 13 Dec
*Y103.80 Strong offers
*Y103.45/50 Medium offers
*Y103.33 Asia high
*Y103.20 Medium offers
*Y102.95/00 Minor offers (Y102.94 - 5-day ma)
*Y102.82 ***Current market rate 0645GMT Monday
*Y102.65 Asia low
*Y102.50 Strong demand, light stops
*Y102.43 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92
*Y102.20 Strong demand
*Y102.00 Strong demand, stops (Y102.05 - 21-day ma)
*Y101.80 Strong demand
*Y101.63 5 Dec low
16-Dec-2013 7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Overbought Studies Caution Bulls
RES 4: Y143.59 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y143.16 3% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 2: Y142.83 High Dec 13
RES 1: Y142.17 High Dec 10
LATEST PRICE: Y141.44
SUP 1: Y140.92/99 Low Dec 11, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
SUP 2: Y140.63 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 3: Y140.20/32 Oct 2005 high, Channel base
SUP 4: Y140.03/09 High Dec 3, 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen descends from the new high at Y142.83 to trade back within
the rising channel from Nov 8 low. Studies are all overbought and failure to
retest the Dec 13 high at Y142.83 adds risk to the downside, the daily Tenkan
line held the downside earlier in Dec and is key support at Y140.63. Below here
is the 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83 at Y140.09. However, the pair remains in an
uptrend while bulls hold above the Nov 2012 support line seen at Y134.85.
EURO-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y143.20 Large stops
*Y143.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*Y142.83 2013 high - 13 Dec
*Y142.45/50 Medium offers
*Y142.20 Medium offers (Y142.17 - 10/12 Dec highs)
*Y142.00 Offers on approach
*Y141.92 Asia high
*Y141.46 ***Current market price 0649GMT Monday
*Y141.25/20 Strong demand (Y141.22 - Asia & 12 Dec lows)
*Y141.00 Strong demand, stops
*Y140.99/92 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12, 11 Dec low
*Y140.63 50% of Y138.43-142.83, Daily Tenkan line
*Y140.50 Strong demand, stops
*Y140.20 Strong demand
*Y140.09 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83
AUSSIE: Aussie Summary: Quiet day with the market very thin into the morning
with no data on the agenda, until the Chinese Manufacturing PMI saw the low of
$0.8920 made (talk of Asian Life Insurance seller). This ran into some strong
technical buying, and on a thin day, the cover was enough for the pair to be
unable to retest last week's lows at $0.8909. Going into the European open, the
pair remains just off the day's high at $0.8953 (high of $0.8965). tomorrow and
Wednesday see some major events for the AUD, from earlier: "Plenty of RBA focus
for traders looking for more jawboning this week with the RBA's Guy Debelle
speaking tomorrow at 1115 AEDT then 15 minutes later the RBA minutes for
December will be released. On Wednesday at 0930 AEDT RBA Governor Glenn Stevens
speaks at House Economics Committee. Also on the Aussie radar will be tomorrow's
Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) at 1230 AEDT. News reports already
have Treasurer Joe Hockey announcing a Budget deficit of $47 billion (up from
Labor's $30 billion just three month's ago) and some analysts have him likely to
announce an overall debt position of more than $500 billion over the forward
estimates."
AUSSIE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*$0.9068 12 Dec high
*$0.9045/50 Medium offers
*$0.9020 Market stops
*$0.9011 5-day ma
*$0.9000 Model supply
*$0.8980/90 Medium offers
*$0.8965 Asia high
*$0.8950 ***Current market price 0656GMT Monday
*$0.8920 Medium demand (Asia low)
*$0.8910 13 Dec low
*$0.8900 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
*$0.8892 28 Aug low
*$0.8880 Very large stops
*$0.8850 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
*$0.8848 2013 low - 5 Aug
pkubiu pisze:co tu taka cisza? gdzie są wszyscy - le jeszcze moze edek podskoczyć czy to juz maż dziś w koncu Wielki Mario przemawia
wszyscy siedzą cicho bo założenia z przed weekendu dają dzisiaj ciała ;/
Gdyby jakiś Broker zaproponowałby mi swapy na L i S o podobnej wartości ... Zarobiłbym miliony...
..." Tylko zdechłe ryby płyną z prądem "...
Forex Ty stara ..... !!!!
;/
