1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Nieprzeczytany postpt 13-12-2013, 0:52
Kolega kiedys trzymał e/j ( dużą pozycje jak powiedzal tajemniczo ...) poszedł chyba z 129 na 132 po jakiejs cofce ... powiedział, że gdyy potrzymał dużej o tydzień to mógłby kupić sobie dobrą fure w salonie. Ciekawe co mógłby kupić teraz oO.... gdyby utrzymał
to ja nie bede pisal c oja bym kupil gdy tu naganialem od 105 -6
by brac pod BOJ dodruk pod korek L na EUR JPY
trzymal dalej te pozycje a raczej ta piramidke
-- Dodano: pt 13-12-2013, 1:29 --
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
EURGBP to dzikus i może zawrócić w dowolnym momencie, ale pierwotnie zakładałem wzrost aż do samej góry.
Ogólnie na ED szykuje się na horyzoncie niezły odwrót, Taperowanie FEDu na horyzoncie cięcie max. do Marca o 5-10Mld USD, a do tego To co się dzieje w EZ Draghi mocno zapewne będzie straszył rynki i przygotuje planu konkretnych kroków.
ED technicznie chyba tj. na Xtb 5 w 5...
Teraz 4 z mniejszej str. 5 odsyłam do xtb czy terie fal eliotta.pl bo u mnie tego nie ma na wykresie
Większość banków nadal nie zmienia zdania i leci w Shorty, nawet Goldman max, do 41, no ale to jeszcze trochę.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EUROPE: There is a much quieter calendar Friday, with even the data schedule
having a Christmas feel. Early European data sees German November wholesale
prices released at 0700GMT, with the Bank of France retail trade data released
at 0730GMT. At 0800GMT, Spain's November final HICP numbers will cross the
wires. Analysts sees the number flat on month, with the final year-on-year
coming in at +0.3%. Also at 0800GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney, BOF Governor
Christian Noyer and ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure attend a French
Treasury Conference taking place in Paris. Further European data is expected at
1000GMT, when the EMU third quarter employment numbers are released. There are
further comments from ECB officials expected at 1115GMT, when Executive Board
member Peter Praet delivers a speech on "The Role of the ECB in Times of
Crisis," in Antwerp, Belgium.
US: There is little on the US calendar, with just the November PPI data expected
at 0830ET. The PPI is expected to be unchanged in November after an energy-led
decline in October. Core PPI is forecast to rise 0.1%. Analysts see energy
prices falling in the month, while a plunge in farm prices received suggests
that food prices declined in November after rebounding in October.
EURO SUMMARY: Closed in NY Thursday at $1.3752 after rate corrected back from an
early intraday high of $1.3803 to $1.3737, the move given added weight by the
release of strong US retail sales data. Rate pressed to an early low of $1.3745
into Asian trade before correcting back to $1.3760 where it met decent
resistance. Rate sold back to extended session lows of $1.3742 into the Asian
afternoon as dollar-yen was driven higher (Y103.92). Rate was trading around
$1.3750 into Europe. Underlying positive trend into year end appears to remain
in place, though this took a slight profit take bruising Thursday, with rate
vulnerable to a deeper correction before we could see a stronger recovery take
place. Traders have signalled that the $1.3725/00 area would be preferred to
enter fresh longs. Several ECB speakers on the wires today could provide
influence though taper/FOMC positioning to overshadow into the afternoon, with
end year flows remaining a key element in the background. Euro-dollar bids
$1.3737-34, more from $1.3725 through to $1.3700. Resistance $1.3760, $1.3780
(61.8% $1.3803-1.3737) ahead of $1.3790/1.3805. Stronger offers $1.3820 with
stops on break of $1.3825.
13-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fades From $1.3800 To Leave Bearish Engulfing Candle
RES 4: $1.3852/66 High Jul 2007, Monthly Bolli band top
RES 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 2: $1.3795/3803 High Dec 10, High Dec 12
RES 1: $1.3757/60 5-DMA, Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: $1.3749
SUP 1: $1.3734/41 Lows Dec 10, 11
SUP 2: $1.3704 High Oct 18
SUP 3: $1.3675/81 Rising channel base, Reversal high Apr 2007
SUP 4: $1.3660 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar failed to leaves a lower high after failing to close
above the $1.3800 and also failing to test $1.3832 - Oct 28 reversal high. Daily
studies are overbought and we note a potential bearish engulfing reversal
pattern - a close lower today around the channel base at $1.3675 should confirm.
A break below channel base would challenge 23.6% at $1.3660 and a close under
could flip sentiment lower. However, rising wkly/mthly studies caution bears.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.6351 after rate had failed
to build on its earlier gains to $1.6418, with the corrective pullback, prompted
by stronger than forecast US retail sales, cushioned at $1.6321 before rate
recouped some lost ground into the close. Cable was pressed lower again into
early Asia, the move taking its cue from strong demand for dollar-yen, with rate
finding an early base at $1.6336. Recovery saw rate step its way up to an
overnight high of $1.6360 before momentum faltered and it reversed tack to trade
down to session lows of $1.6333. Cable was recovering into early Europe,
currently around $1.6343. Euro-sterling was contained within a tight
stg0.8410/0.84145 range in Asia leaving cable to take direction from
euro-dollar. UK construction output at 0930GMT provides the domestic morning
interest with BOE Dale speaking at 1230GMT. A few ECB speakers on the agenda
could provide general activity this morning. Cable offers seen placed into
$1.6360 with stronger interest noted between $1.6370/80 (50%-61.8%
$1.6418-1.6321). Support remains into $1.6325/15, a break to allow for a deeper
move toward $1.6400. Asian traders highlight stops below $1.6265 and $1.6240.
13-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: 23.6% Key Support At $1.6322
RES 4: $1.6466/71 High Dec 10, High July 2011
RES 3: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
RES 2: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
RES 1: $1.6387 5-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.6334
SUP 1: $1.6322 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466
SUP 2: $1.6285/94 21-DMA, Low Dec 6
SUP 3: $1.6233 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466
SUP 4: $1.6200 High Nov 21
COMMENTARY: Cable struggles to break below 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466 - initial
support at $1.6322. Daily studies decline from overbought and show sell-signals
while weekly studies also O/B - a break below 23.6% targets 21-DMA and Dec 6 low
at $1.6285/94, respectively. Bears may target July support line in the med-term,
at $1.6121 and rising around 12 pips a day. A break below would likely start a
trend lower but bulls may use this level from which to stage a recovery.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen opened at Y103.39 in Asia and euro-yen started at
Y142.18 near session lows of Y103.36 and Y142.14, both edged higher to hit
temporary highs of Y103.67 and Y142.52. Talks of buying interest into Tokyo fix
and stops above Y103.50 were taken out by Japanese banks which pushed dollar-yen
to hit Y103.67 in early morning Asia. The rate pull backed to Y103.43 before
renewed buying interest pushed it to Y103.70 which capped the pair briefly
before stops were triggered above Y103.75 and it hit a high of Y103.85
subsequently. Japanese banks paid offers at Y103.70 on the platforms ($400 mln)
but it capped the pair's advance and it retreats to Y103.61 but quickly bounced
back up to clear offers at Y103.70/75, triggering stops above Y103.75.
Dollar-yen retreats to Y103.73 from Y103.85 but continues to edge higher to hit
fresh session high of Y103.87 and retraces to Y103.81 last, euro-yen retreats to
Y142.71 last. Dollar-yen now joins euro-yen in touching fresh 5-year highs.
Yesterday evening BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told FT, BOJ will keep its easy
monetary policy till inflation hits and stabilises at 2% target and would take
more easing measures if prices rises flagged.
13-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Eye Y104.00 Level Which Currently Caps
RES 4: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
RES 3: Y105.00 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 2: Y104.19 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y103.92/98 Hourly high, 2% 21-day MA envelope top
LATEST PRICE: Y103.75
SUP 1: Y103.33 High Dec 9
SUP 2: Y102.95 High Dec 12
SUP 3: Y102.77 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 4: Y102.43 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen soars to a new high of Y103.92 while bulls continue to
pressure the Y104.00 level. A break above here would run into the daily Bolli
band top at Y104.19 then resistance above is thin until the Y105.00 level where
we note the 3% 21-day MA top lies. However, failure to close above Y104.00 could
see bears take control as studies are overbought - we note a new support line
seen at Y102.60. Despite this, studies remain bullish - adding risk higher.
13-Dec-2013 7:42
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Eye Y143.00 Level Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
RES 3: Y144.28 4% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 2: Y143.58 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y142.83/89 Hourly high, 3% 21-DMA envelope top
LATEST PRICE: Y142.63
SUP 1: Y142.14/17 Hourly low, High Dec 10
SUP 2: Y141.69 High Dec 11
SUP 3: Y140.92/99 Low Dec 11, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
SUP 4: Y140.63 Daily Tenkan line
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen pushes higher to break above Y142.00 and extend gains to a
new high at Y142.83. Studies are stretching further into overbought territory
and bulls now look to test the Y143.00 level and rise above to the daily Bolli
band top at Y143.58. However, failure to make gains above Y143.00 could add risk
lower while studies continue to look so overbought. Support is thin until the
daily Tenkan line at Y140.63 and the new 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83 at Y140.09.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Friday higher. The Nikkei 225
gained 61.29 points, or 0.4, to stand at 15403.11. The broader-based TOPIX was
higher by 2.40 points at 1244.63. Nikkei market breadth saw 148 issues trade
higher, 56 lower and 21 unchanged. Total volume was 2.145 billion.
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y102.00, Y102.35, Y102.50, Y102.70, Y102.95, Y103.00, Y103.50,
Y104.00, Y105.00(L; also digital expiry)
* Euro-dollar; $1.3600, $1.3750, $1.3800, $1.3810
* Cable; $1.6360
* Sterling-yen; Y168.50
* Aussie; $0.8950, $0.9100, $0.9160
* Kiwi-yen; Y84.50
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0595, C$1.0615, C$1.0750
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
niemiaszek pisze:
13-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fades From $1.3800 To Leave Bearish Engulfing Candle
RES 4: $1.3852/66 High Jul 2007, Monthly Bolli band top
RES 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 2: $1.3795/3803 High Dec 10, High Dec 12
RES 1: $1.3757/60 5-DMA, Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: $1.3749
SUP 1: $1.3734/41 Lows Dec 10, 11
SUP 2: $1.3704 High Oct 18
SUP 3: $1.3675/81 Rising channel base, Reversal high Apr 2007
SUP 4: $1.3660 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar failed to leaves a lower high after failing to close
above the $1.3800 and also failing to test $1.3832 - Oct 28 reversal high. Daily
studies are overbought and we note a potential bearish engulfing reversal
pattern - a close lower today around the channel base at $1.3675 should confirm.
A break below channel base would challenge 23.6% at $1.3660 and a close under
could flip sentiment lower. However, rising wkly/mthly studies caution bears.
Ostrzeżenie dla niedźwiedzi?stosunkowo mocny opór 1,3755 jest dla mnie sygnałem ze coś się święci. myślę ze mozliwym jest atak na 1,3725 przed weekendem
Nie sztuką jest zyskać +300 pip-s w ciągu dnia
Sztuką jest utrzymać +300 pip-s w ciągu roku..
pod korek L na EUR JPY
