DayTrading: Środa 11.12.2013

[atlanticos]

udzieliła mi się bezsenność i coś takiego na kablu wpadło do głowy - rynek zweryfikuje - po wybiciu i reteście niebieskiej TL z wykresu H4 będę szukał grubszego wejścia

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zMDVodoY/

[helpfinance]

witam
przedstawiam prognozę krótkoterminową dla złota
wg mnie brakuje ostatniej podfali 5 na godzinowym która nie powinna wyrządzić większej szkody
pozdrawiam

Jak dla mnie ostatni impuls zmienił trend krótkoterminowy

w piątek przedstawiłem analizę średnioterminową (wykres) dzienny na podstawie fal eliotta korekcyjnego wzrostu do ok 1380 , ale jak dobrze policzyć falki to wychodzi dołek na 1203 lub 1228 (długość podfali 5 - 100 oraz 61,8% dlugości podfali 1 na godzinowym) w analizie posluguje sie też wskaźnikiem fast K , na dziennym jest w wykupieniu i sygnalizuje niewielka obsuwę .

[kk.dreamer]

Co to sie stało, że edek sie ruszył?

[Kusus]

Edek - poniższy wykres wrzucam jako ciekawostkę - bardziej prognozę długoterminową. Jednakże zwróćcie uwagę na poziomy

W1 - Myślę, że możliwa wielotygodniowa konsolidacja na edku w zakresie 1.38 - 1.35. Widać są to niezwykle ważne poziomy dla rynku (rysunek).
D1, H4 - Możliwa korekta z poziomu ~1.3800. Myślę, że najbliższym celem może być 1.3650 i pod to będę osobiście grał krótkoterminowo. Po tym scenariuszu możliwa dalsza obsuwa do za kresu ~1.35 w ramach podwójnego szczytu i konsolidacji z powyższej prognozy W1.

Trwałe przebicie poziomu 1.38 spowoduje zmianę scenariusza i rajd w okolice zaznaczone na rysunku. Wtedy szukać będę wejść na wsparciach i zmianę krótkoterminowego sentymentu na pozycje długie.

[kk.dreamer]

Dzisiaj w kalendarzu bez rewelacji, to może czas wreszcie na korekty

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: Wednesday's calendar slows somewhat, although there are still data
releases on both sides of the Atlantic. The UK calendar gets underway at
0630GMT, when the French third quarter job creation data will be released. At
0700GMT, the German November final HICP numbers are set to cross the wires, with
analysts looking for a month on month rise of 0.2% in HICP, higher by 1.6% on
year. French October current account numbers will be released at 0745GMT. There
is little in the way of scheduled central bank talk Wednesday. However, ECB
Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny will hold a press conference on financial
stability report, in Vienna at 0900GMT. Then, at 1100GMT, ECB Vice-President
Vitor Constancio will appear on a panel at an IMF book presentation in
Frankfurt. Sovereign issuance sees Germany re-open its 2-year benchmark 0.00%
Dec 2015 Schatz issue for up to E5.0bln - the Deutsche Finanzagentur's final
bond auction for this year. Italy plan to issue a new 12-month Dec 12, 2014 BOT.



EURO SUMMARY: The euro opened at $1.3761 this morning following another
rangebound overnight session which saw the pair traverse a $1.3749 TO $1.3795
range in the US. Early market action saw euro-dollar encountering bids from
below $1.3760 which carried the pair up to a $1.3769 high, where the gains
stalled ahead of rumored sell orders from $1.3790. The pullback in euro-yen then
dragged euro-dollar down with it and it then dropped to $1.3751 low, with the
earlier reported bids under $1.3760 failing to provide sufficient support.
Continued euro-yen weakness then prompted further euro-dollar selling down to a
$1.3747 low, where it has since found minor support. Euro-dollar was last at
$1.3757 and initial support is noted on the hourly time frame at the $1.3735
level with trailing stops noted below $1.3730 ahead of more euro demand at
$1.3725/20.

11-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Turned Away From $1.3800 Adding Risk Lower
RES 4: $1.3852 High Jul 2007
RES 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 2: $1.3793/95 High Oct 23, Dec 10
RES 1: $1.3769/77 Daily Bolli band top, Monthly Ichimoku top
LATEST PRICE: $1.3760
SUP 1: $1.3727/34 5-DMA, Low Dec 10
SUP 2: $1.3681 Reversal high Apr 2007
SUP 3: $1.3658/60 Channel base, 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
SUP 4: $1.3637 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar pushed up to test resistance just below the $1.3800
level and left a long upper-shadow, bulls look to retest this key level and
break above to the Oct 28 reversal high at $1.3832. However, failure at $1.3800
or failure to retest adds downside risk while daily studies are overbought.
Bears look to return to the channel base seen at $1.3658, just below the 23.6%
of $1.3105-1.3832 seen at $1.3660 - ahead of here is the 5-DMA at $1.3727.

EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.3870/80 Medium offers/Option related
$1.3850/55 Momentum demand triggers expected
$1.3850 Strong offers/Option barrier
$1.3835 Stops
$1.3830/35 Strong offers/$1.3833 61.8% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12; Oct25 high
$1.3810/20 Medium offers/Break-out buying above
$1.3790/800 Option release offers/$1.3795 Dec10 high
$1.3765 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3763 ***Current mkt rate 0646GMT Wednesday
$1.3747 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3740/30 Medium demand/$1.3734 Dec10 low
$1.3715/00 Medium demand
$1.3694 Monday Dec9 low
$1.3690 System stops
$1.3670 Medium demand


STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Tuesday at $1.6446 after rate had
consolidated its earlier rise to $1.6468 with trade through the rest of the day
contained within a range of $1.6421-58. Rate picked up fresh demand into Asia,
the rate lifting back to retest the NY high at $1.6458 before turning lower and
marking overnight lows at $1.6434. Rate then settled around $1.6440 ahead of
Europe, with early sales pressing the rate to extended lows of $1.6432.
Euro-sterling was contained within a tight stg0.8364/70 range through Asia
leaving cable to track euro-dollar moves. Sterling said to retain its recent
underlying positive tone, with the pullback Tuesday seen on the back of profit
take sales from sterling-yen after this rate had made a brief show above
Y170.00. Cable support seen placed at $1.6420, more into $1.6400. Resistance
remains into $1.6470, a break here to open a move toward barrier interest at
$1.6500. No major UK data on the calendar, though BOE Weale is due to speak at
an NIESR event at 1300GMT. Euro-sterling remains supported by general euro
buoyancy, but trader reports continue to favour shorting on any moves into
stg0.8400/20.

11-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Require Retest Of $1.6466 Else Risk Lower
RES 4: $1.6585 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.6527 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.6496 High June 2011
RES 1: $1.6466/71 High Dec 10, High July 2011
LATEST PRICE: $1.6440
SUP 1: $1.6401/04 Highs Mar 2011, Dec 4
SUP 2: $1.6358 High Nov 28
SUP 3: $1.6322 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466
SUP 4: $1.6301 Low Dec 5
COMMENTARY: Cable made a new monthly high but failed to extend gains to test
$1.6500 level, bulls target here while monthly studies rise. However, dly/wkly
studies remain overbought and failure to retest the Dec 10 high at $1.6466, or
June 2011 high at $1.6496, could switch sentiment to the downside. Bears aim to
break below the 23.6% at $1.6322 to test the Dec 6 low at $1.6393. Further
losses below here could see a decline to the July support line at $1.6098.

CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6550 Medium offers
$1.6520/30 Medium offers
$1.6500 Strong offers on approach/Barrier
$1.6496 Jun 2011 highs
$1.6470-80 Medium offers/Asian offers at $1.6470
$1.6468 Tuesday Dec10 high
$1.6458 Int.Day high Asia (matched NY high Tues)
$1.6433 ***Current market rate 0659GMT Wednesday
$1.6432 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.6434
$1.6420 Medium demand on approach
$1.6410/00 Medium demand/$1.6410 38.2% $1.6316-1.6468
$1.6385/80 Medium demand
$1.6370 Medium demand
$1.6355/50 Medium demand/$1.6352 76.4% $1.6316-1.6468
$1.6325/15 Medium demand/$1.6316 Dec9 low

EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8464 Weds Nov13 high (seen in Asia)
stg0.8440 Medium offers
stg0.8415/20 Strong offers/stg0.8414 76.4% stg0.8464-0.8252/Stops
stg0.8395/400 Strong offers
stg0.8380/85 Medium offers
stg0.8379 Int.Day high Europe, Asia stg0.8370
stg0.8379 ***Current market rate 0744GMT Wednesday
stg0.8364 Int.Day low Europe, Asia stg0.83545
stg0.8355/45 Medium demand/stg0.8348 Dec6 low
stg0.8330/20 Strong demand/Stops
stg0.8300/290 Medium demand
stg0.8274 Dec4 low
stg0.8260/50 Strong demand/stg0.8258 Dec3 low/stg0.8252 Dec2 low
stg0.8250 Option barrier/Strong demand ahead
stg0.8220 Strong demand


YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese currency witnessed a generally subdued morning today,
with dollar-yen opening at Y102.78 while euro-yen started at Y141.53. Dollar-yen
was carried up to a Y102.96 morning high in early trade as short positions were
covered wand with early market attention focused on news of the US budget deal
while the market paid little notice to the release of Japan's machinery orders
data and CGPI. Gains were shortlived and dollar-yen then eased to Y102.75 while
euro-yen also slipped off a Y141.69 high to Y141.32. Dealers said Japanese
accounts were spotted selling dollar-yen from above Y103.00 but the move back
was also limited amid rumored large bids from Y102.55, and associated stops
below Y102.50. Dollar-yen extended the initial lows to Y102.60 in the late
morning while the cross drifted down to Y141.14 but those dollar-yen bids held
fast keeping the pair from exploring the downside further. Dollar-yen was last
at Y102.66 while euro-yen was at Y141.29. Further down, decent dollar-yen stops
are noted below Y101.60 with a close below needed to end bullish hopes and see
focus shift lower to retests of the Y99.10 level

11-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fades From Y103.39 - Bears Target Y101.64
RES 4: Y103.97 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
RES 2: Y103.38/39 Highs Dec 3, 10
RES 1: Y103.18 Nov 8 channel base
LATEST PRICE: Y102.75
SUP 1: Y102.51 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y102.02 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38
SUP 3: Y101.59/64 21-DMA, Low Dec 6
SUP 4: Y101.18 38.2% of Y97.62-103.38
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen slips below the channel base again after fading from the
new monthly high at Y103.39 - bulls aim to retest this level but daily studies
now appear to be reversing lower and initial support is seen at Y102.51 - the
daily Tenkan. Bears look to break below the Dec 6 low at Y101.64 to confirm the
mini double-top reversal pattern which would target a measured move to the
psychological Y100.00 level where strong support is expected.

DOLLAR-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y104.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y103.70/80 Strong offers/Y103.73 2013 high (May22)
Y103.60 Medium offers, stops
Y103.50 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y103.40 Strong offers (Y103.38-40 offers on EBS)/System stops
Y103.15/20 Minor offers
Y103.05/10 Medium offers
Y102.96/98 Intraday high Asia/US high
Y102.79 ***Current market rate 0323GMT Wednesday
Y102.75 Intraday low Asia
Y102.55/50 Strong demand (Y102.51 - 50% of Y101.63-103.39), stops
Y102.20 Strong demand
Y102.00 Strong demand, stops (Y102.02 - 23.6% of Y97.62-103.39)
Y101.63 5 Dec low
Y101.59/50 21-dma/Strong demand, stops (Y101.53 - Reversal high 8 Jul)

11-Dec-2013 7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Downside Risk After Failure To Close Above Y142.00
RES 4: Y143.48 4% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 3: Y143.24 Potential measured move target
RES 2: Y142.84 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y142.17 High Dec 10
LATEST PRICE: Y141.32
SUP 1: Y141.05 High Dec 6
SUP 2: Y140.52 Weekly Bollinger band top
SUP 3: Y140.20/30 Oct 2005 high, Daily Tenkan
SUP 4: Y140.03 High Dec 3
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen reached a new high yesterday at Y142.17 but now fades back
into the rising channel while daily studies show signs of turning lower. Weekly
and monthly studies are also overbought and could turn lower - bears look to
break below daily Tenkan line at Y140.30 before testing support around Y140.00
level and below here is the 23.6% of Y131.22-142.17 at Y139.59. However, failure
to descend to these levels would encourage bulls to retest the Dec 10 high.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Wednesday's session lower. The
Nikkei 225 lost 96.25 points, or 0.62%, to stand at 15515.06. The broader-based
TOPIX was lower by 4.35 points at 1251.98. Nikkei market breadth saw 60 issues
trade higher, 157 lower and 8 unchanged. Total volume was 1.099 billion.


AUSSIE: The Australian dollar saw a quiet morning in Asia today after it had
marked a $0.9116 to $0.9168 range in the US last night. Early sellers pushed the
aussie lower after the pair failed to clear $0.9168 resistance level overnight
and it went to $0.9145 in morning dealings. Aussie-dollar showed little reaction
to the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index for December. It extended the lows
down to $0.9121 after dealers reported selling by an Asian account above $0.9130
and has since shown barely any recovery signs, trading at $0.9123 in the
afternoon. Residual sell orders still in place above $0.9150, larger interest at
$0.9165/70, and stops are seen building above the $0.9168 resistance level with
a close above needed to hint at a bigger correction. Further offers are seen at
$0.9180, with stops then expected on any move above $0.9200.



OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y101.00, Y101.50, Y102.70(L), Y102.75, Y103.00, Y103.50, Y104.00
* Euro-yen; Y140.00, Y142.00
* Euro-dollar; $1.3600, $1.3620, $1.3650, $1.3690, $1.3700, $1.3725, $1.3770,
$1.3775, $1.3800, $1.3825
* Cable; $1.6400
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2200, Chf1.2220
* Aussie; $0.9000, $0.9150
* Euro-Aussie; A$1.5000

[Nowy123]

na E J jakies RGR 1h

-- Dodano: śr 11-12-2013, 9:51 --

141 wspracie

[Kusus]

Dzisiaj zmienność jest tragiczna....

[Ciapul]

g/u h1 - pierwsze wsparcie
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v59r4dbx/

[Kusus]

Ciapul - mimo wszystko myślę, że edka i kabla czekają większe korekty. Myślę, że w kilka najbliższych wsparć wbiją się jak w masło. Może tak się stać ponieważ już większość jest sentymentalnie nastawiona do pozycji długich na tych wsparciach.