Hello
EUROPE: There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Monday, with the
European final manufacturing PMI data for November likely to be the early
highlight. Key Eurozone data gets underway from 0800GMT, with the release of the
French car registrations data for November. The first of the main euro area PMI
numbers comes at 0813GMT, when the Spanish numbers cross the wires. Italian data
follows at 0843GMT, with France at 0848GMT, German at 0853GMT and the
amalgamated euro data at 0858GMT. PMI numbers are seen in line with the flash
data, showing a region just about holding on to a recovery. German data is seen
at 52.5. At 0900GMT, German October machine orders will be released at 0900GMT.
Orders are seen down 1% on month, although 4.1% up on the year ago period. At
0915GMT, ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio will deliver a keynote speech at a
banking conference in Dublin.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 02 IMF to start talks on Spanish banking review
- Dec 02 ECB's Constancio, Honohan speak IIEA Conference, Dublin
- Dec 03 ECB Nowotny speaks in Brussels
- Dec 03 ESM bill auction
- Dec 04 EMU Q3 GDP data (2nd estimate)
- Dec 04 EMU Nov final services PMI
- Dec 04 EU, IMF begin 10th review of Portuguese aid program
- Dec 05 ECB Governing Council meeting, Staff forecast, Draghi press conf
- Dec 05 Spain bond auctions
- Dec 06 ECB Nowotny at Austria central bank press conference
- Dec 06 ECB Asmussen at Handelsblatt Research Institute in Berlin
- Dec 06 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Dec 09 Eurogroup meeting
- Dec 09 Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence data
- Dec 10 ECOFIN meeting
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EURO SUMMARY: The euro also started in Asia a touch stronger from where it had
left off in New Yokr on Friday, trading at $1.3594 in the opening minutes of the
session. It initially tracked euro-yen's moves with a slight dip to $1.3581 lows
and then rebounding strongly about an hour later. The move coincided with
euro-yen's move to its morning highs and as sterling also jumped on an early
stop-loss hunt. Euro-dollar however failed to extend the moves significantly, as
it topped out at $1.3612 and ran into selling on crosses including
euro-sterling, which fell to a Gbp0.8274 low from Gbp0.8313. Euro-dollar
witnessed another rebound attempt later in the morning but was capped at the
earlier high. It briefly pulled back below $1.3600 for $1.3594 and was last at
$1.3605. According to dealers, euro-dollar offers have been spotted ahead from
$1.3625, believed to be fairly strong and stretch up to $1.3645/50, with minor
stops mixed in around $1.3635. On the downside, a close back below the $1.3490
Nov 25 low is needed to confirm a break of the 21-day moving average ($1.3503)
and see overall focus shift lower to a retest of the $1.3390-00 region.
29-Nov-2013
7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Closed In Rising Channel But Daily Studies O/B
RES 4: $1.3763 Low Oct 24
RES 3: $1.3706/11 76.4% $1.3832-1.3296, Reversal high Jan 2013
RES 2: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
RES 1: $1.3626/27 Daily Bolli top, 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296
LATEST PRICE: $1.3614
SUP 1: $1.3593 Channel base from Jul 10 low
SUP 2: $1.3554 55-DMA & 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
SUP 3: $1.3499 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.3462/69 Nov 7 support line, 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar edged back into rising channel from Jul 10 low - base
becomes initial support at $1.3593. A break below could see bears take control
and slide to the key support level at $1.3469, the 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832 and
Nov 7 support line. Daily studies stretch further into overbought territory and
bulls now eye resistance around $1.3626/27 - daily Bolli top and 61.8% of
$1.3832-1.3296, break above here targets Apr 2007 reversal high at $1.3681.
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3739 Thursday Oct31 high
$1.3690/710 Strong offers/$1.3706 76.4% $1.3833-1.3295
$1.3660/65 Medium offers
$1.3650 Strong offers/Cloud top/$1.3655 Stops
$1.3625/30 Strong offers/$1.3627 61.8% $1.3833-1.3295
$1.3612/22 Asia & 29 Nov highs
$1.3602 ***Current mkt rate 0650GMT Monday
$1.3581 Asia low
$1.3575 Light stops
$1.3570/60 Medium demand/$1.3572 40-dma
$1.3564 Thu Nov28 low/50-dma
$1.3558/54 55-dma, 38.2% $1.3105-1.3832
$1.3525/15 Strong demand
$1.3500 Demand on approach ($1.3503 - 21dma)
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Friday at $1.6370. The rate spiked to fresh
27 month highs of $1.6384 ahead of the London fix, before profit take sales
eased. Sterling saw strong gains on the week, this followed Thursday's
announcement from the Bank of England that said it was rolling back stimulus to
the UK housing market. Euro-sterling continued heavy throughout the NY session
and made a show under stg0.8300 to 10 month lows of stg0.8297 in late dealings.
Cable found support in early Asia buoyed by positive news in the weekend press
that the Office for Budget Responsibility will make its biggest upgrade to
Britain's prospect for three years. It said growth has jumped from the 0.6%
forecast in March to about 1.4%, this spiked cable through the $1.6400 barrier,
triggering stop loss buying to print extended highs of $1.6443. Profit take
sales later eased throughout the session as the pair looks to consolidate above
$1.6400 into Europe. Euro-sterling pressed to stg0.8274 on the move, before
grinding to stg0.8285/90. Traders look ahead to release of November mfg PMI data
for further direction.
02-Dec-2013
7:10
CABLE TECHS: Still Rising Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: $1.6634 200-month moving average
RES 3: $1.6550 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.6496 High June 2011
RES 1: $1.6443 Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: $1.6418
SUP 1: $1.6331 High Nov 27
SUP 2: $1.6304 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
SUP 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
SUP 4: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
COMMENTARY: Cable still squeezing higher and tests above the long-term 38.2% of
$2.1161-1.3503 - still at $1.6428 but price action today already tested above.
Bulls now eye the weekly Bolli top at $1.6550 and a break above here could
threaten 200-month MA at $1.6634. We continue to note the double-bottom pattern
activated in September still targets $1.6690 - however, daily/weekly studies
look overbought adding caution higher - key support at $1.6304, the 23.6%.
CABLE: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.6534 24 Aug 11 high
$1.6520 Strong offers
$1.6500 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
$1.6496 Jun 2011 high
$1.6480 Medium offers
$1.6450 Strong offers, stops
$1.6443 Asia high
$1.6418 ***Current market rate 0654GMT Monday
$1.6380 Minor demand
$1.6362 Asia low
$1.6350 Strong demand, stops
$1.6326 5-dma
$1.6315 29 Nov low
$1.6300 Strong demand on approach ($1.6304 23.6% $1.5855-1.6443)
$1.6280/75 Medium demand
EURO-STERLING: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8391 Tues Nov26 high/stg0.8392 76.4% stg0.8415-0.8317
stg0.8387 Wednesday Nov27 high
stg0.8368 21-dma
stg0.8352 Thursday Nov28 high
stg0.8350 Offers on approach (stg0.9345 - 29 Nov high)
stg0.8324 5-dma
stg0.8312 Asia high
stg0.8287 ***Current market rate 0705GMT Monday
stg0.8274 Asia low
stg0.8258 76.4% stg0.8086-0.8815 2013 range
stg0.8250 Strong demand, stops
stg0.8220 Strong demand
stg0.8200 Strong demand, stops (stg0.8204 - 11 Jan low)
stg0.8150 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese currency revisited last week's lows against the dollar
but held off from making further 5-year lows against the euro this morning,
although flows were generally in favor of further yen weakness. Dollar-yen
opened at Y102.51 this morning while euro-yen started at Y Early demand for the
Tokyo fix kept dollar-yen supported through the early hours of the session and
the pair inched up to Y102.61, almost matching last week's Y102.62 high, its
best since May, and held near Y102,50 as Japanese stocks opened slightly higher.
Initial support also came from euro-yen which was carried up to an early Y139.51
high amid talk of demand for euro-denominated bonds. Yen pairs began to give
back much of those gains soon after as the euro also failed to make much headway
and as dollar-yen then ran into selling from a rumored reserve manager.
Dollar-yen fell to a Y102.22 low around mid-morning but managed to regain a few
notches back to Y102.40. Euro-yen also backed away from last week's Y139.71
5-year high and dropped to a Y139.04 low. Dollar-yen was last at Y102.42 while
the cross was at Y139.32.
02-Dec-2013
7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Eye Break Above Y102.61 But Studies O/B
RES 4: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
RES 3: Y103.30/31 3% 21-day MA env top, High May 17
RES 2: Y102.97/103.03 Rising channel top, Daily Bolli band top
RES 1: Y102.61 High Nov 29
LATEST PRICE: Y102.43
SUP 1: Y101.92/94 High Nov 25, Low Nov 28
SUP 2: Y101.60 Nov 8 channel base
SUP 3: Y101.43 23.6% of Y97.62-102.61
SUP 4: Y101.20 Daily Tenkan line
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen currently fails to break Friday's high of Y102.61 but we
await today's close to confirm - lower high would add downside risk and a break
lower could see overbought daily/monthly studies reverse. Initial support seen
just below Y102.00, the high of Nov 25 and low of 28, a break below here likely
targets the Channel base at Y101.60 followed by the 23.6% of Y97.62-102.61 at
Y101.43. However, a break above Y102.61 targets resistance around Y103.00.
02-Dec-2013
7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Nov 29 High Key Initial Res At Y139.71
RES 4: Y140.84 4% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 3: Y140.20/21 Oct 2005 high, Daily Bolli band top
RES 2: Y140.00 Psychological level
RES 1: Y139.71 High Nov 29
LATEST PRICE: Y139.34
SUP 1: Y138.97 Low Nov 29
SUP 2: Y138.31 Low Nov 28
SUP 3: Y137.99 Nov 25 high
SUP 4: Y137.71 23.6% of Y131.22-139.71
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen currently holds below Nov 29 high at Y139.71 while bears
already tested the rising channel top as support - initial support now seen as
Friday's low at Y138.97 and a break below this level could see bears test the
23.6% of Y131.22-139.71 at Y137.71. Daily studies look likely to reverse lower
and a break back into the channel adds further downside risk. However, a break
above Nov 29 high could stretch studies further and continue the bullish trend.
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very
Large(VL), Includes DTCC
* Dollar-yen; Y100.00, Y101.00, Y101.80,
Y102.00(L)
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3410, $1.3470, $1.3515, $1.3520, $1.3590,
$1.3625(L),
$1.3650
* Cable; $1.6400
* Aussie; $0.9000, $0.9100, $0.9150, $0.9300
* Canada-dollar; Cad1.0525
