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EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Channel Base Caps; Bear Divergence On Weekly Studies
RES 4: $1.3646 High Oct 3
RES 3: $1.3598 High Oct 14
RES 2: $1.3579 High Nov 20
RES 1: $1.3569 Channel base from Jul 10 low
LATEST PRICE: $1.3554
SUP 1: $1.3505/09 5-DMA, 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3469 Former 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
SUP 3: $1.3400/07 High Aug 8, 100-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3383 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar continues to trade below channel base but with bulls
pressuring the upside, however weekly studies show continued bear-divergence
which adds risk lower. A break into channel should see bulls retest resistance
around $1.3600 and Oct 34 high at $1.3646, however failure to break channel base
could reverse sentiment. Key support at $1.3400/07 - the Aug 8 high and 100-DMA.
Break below here targets first the Nov 7 low at $1.3296 then 200-DMA at $1.3221.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.3690/700 Strong offers
$1.3660/65 Medium offers
$1.3650 Strong offers on approach/Stops
$1.3620/30 Medium offers
$1.3585-600 Medium offers/$1.3596 cloud top/$1.3600-05 Stops
$1.3579-84 Wednesday Nov20 high (mixed reports of actual high)
$1.3571 Int.Day high Asia/Short entry interest seen $1.3570-1.3600
$1.3557 ***Current mkt rate 0841GMT Tuesday
$1.3516 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3510/00 Medium demand
$1.3490/80 Medium demand/$1.3490 Mon Nov25 low/Stops
$1.3463 Friday Nov22 low
$1.3460/50 Medium demand/$1.3449 cloud base
$1.3420 Medium demand
$1.3400/390 Strong demand/$1.3400 Nov21-$1.3390 Nov13 lows
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Fade From Below $1.6260 - Studies Weaken
RES 4: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
RES 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
RES 2: $1.6225/29 High Oct 18, Daily Bolli band top
RES 1: $1.6200/03 High Nov 21, High Sept 30
LATEST PRICE: $1.6192
SUP 1: $1.6134 Low Nov 25
SUP 2: $1.6064/69 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, 21-DMA
SUP 3: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
SUP 4: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
COMMENTARY: Cable fades from the daily Bolli band top also just below the key
top at $1.6260 from the highs in Sept and Oct - further losses may form a
triple-top pattern with a break below $1.5900 needed to confirm the reversal
pattern. Daily studies suggest a potential reversal lower and 10-week momentum
continues to show negative divergence - key support seen around $1.6064/69 - the
23.6% level and 21-DMA, also the 55-DMA at $1.6062.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6381 2013 Jan2 high
$1.6320/30 Strong offers
$1.6300 Medium offers
$1.6280 Medium offers
$1.6250/60 $1.6248 Oct25, $1.6258 Oct23, $1.6260 Oct1 highs/Stops
$1.6241 Monday Nov25 high
$1.6190/200 Medium offers
$1.6175 38.2% $1.6241-1.6134
$1.6174 Int.Day high Asia
$1.6167 ***Current market rate 0732GMT Tuesday
$1.6146 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.6151
$1.6134 Monday Nov25 low/$1.6137 61.8% $1.6072-1.6241
$1.6110/00 Medium demand
$1.6072 Nov21 low
$1.6060 Tuesday Nov19 low/Strong demand
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8464 Weds Nov13 high (seen in Asia)
stg0.8440 Medium offers
stg0.8430 Medium offers/Stops
stg0.8415/20 Strong offers/Stops
stg0.8395/400 Medium offers
stg0.8380/85 Medium offers/stg0.8378 61.8% stg0.8415-0.8317
stg0.8380 Int.Day high Europe, Asia stg0.83775
stg0.8378 ***Current market rate 0741GMT Tuesday
stg0.8358 Int.Day low Asia
stg0.8345/40 Medium demand
stg0.8333 Corresponds to E1.20
stg0.8317 Nov22 low
stg0.8300 Strong demand/Nov7 low, ECB rate cut react
stg0.8285 50.0% 0.7756-0.8815
stg0.8258 76.4% stg0.8086-0.8815 2013 range
EURO-YEN TECHS: Fades From Y138.00 While Studies Look O/B
RES 4: Y138.72 Aug 2009 high
RES 3: Y138.49/52 Oct 2009 high, 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 2: Y137.99 High Nov 25
RES 1: Y137.75 Rising channel top & Daily Bolli top
LATEST PRICE: Y137.40
SUP 1: Y137.14/18 Hourly low, 2% 21-day MA envelope top
SUP 2: Y137.02 Low Nov 25
SUP 3: Y136.89 Jul 2009 reversal high
SUP 4: Y136.39/40 23.6% of Y131.22-137.99, High Nov 21
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen pushed above the channel top and daily Bolli band to leave
a high at Y137.99 - new further resistance which bulls look to retest. However,
studies are looking overbought and daily studies could reverse lower if bears
prevail today. Initial support seen at Y137.14/18 - the hourly low and 2% 21-DMA
envelope top, a break below here then sees support at Y137.02 and then Y136.39 -
the Nov 25 low and 23.6% of Y131.22-137.99.
EURO-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y138.52/72 3% 21-day ma envelope top, 7 Aug 09 high
Y138.50 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y138.49 Oct 2009 high
Y138.20 Large stops
Y138.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y137.99 25 Nov high
Y137.68/75 Intraday high, Rising channel top & Daily Bolli top
Y137.53 ***Current market price 0852GMT Tuesday
Y137.18/14 2% 21-day ma envelope top, Asia low
Y137.00 Demand on approach, light stops
Y136.89 Jul 09 reversal high
Y136.62 5-day ma
Y136.50 Strong demand stops
Y136.39 23.6% of Y131.22-137.99
Y136.00 Medium demand, stops (Y136.02 - 22 Nov low)
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fades From Below Key Y102.00 Resistance Level
RES 4: Y102.50/53 Highs May 28, 29
RES 3: Y102.06/08 Rising channel top, Low May 21
RES 2: Y101.92/97 High Nov 25, Low May 20
RES 1: Y101.77 Daily Bollinger band top
LATEST PRICE: Y101.39
SUP 1: Y101.14 Low Nov 25
SUP 2: Y100.91 23.6% of Y97.62-101.92
SUP 3: Y100.53/69 Daily Tenkan, Nov 8 channel base
SUP 4: Y100.28 38.2% of Y97.62-101.92
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen finally shows a little bearishness after pressuring the
daily Bolli band top and channel top for the past few sessions. Daily Bolli top
is now initial resistance at 101.77 with the Nov 25 high above at Y101.92, just
below strong resistance around Y102.00. Bulls may look to retest this level but
daily studies look overbought adding risk lower - key support at Y101.91, the
23.6% of Y97.62-101.92 and below here is Tenkan and channel base at Y100.53/69.
DOLLAR-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y102.53 29 May high
Y102.50 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y102.25 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y102.06/08 Rising channel top, 21 May low
Y102.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y101.92 25 Nov high
Y101.73/77 (Asia high, daily Bollinger band top)
Y101.49 ***Current market rate 0843GMT Tuesday
Y101.34 Asia low
Y101.20 Medium demand
Y101.14/12 25 Nov low, 5-day ma
Y101.00 Demand on approach, light stops building
Y100.95/91 22 Nov low, 23.6% of Y97.62-101.92
Y100.80 Medium demand
Y100.69 8 Nov channel base
AUSSIE: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$0.9333 21 Nov high
$0.9320 Strong offers
$0.9300 Strong offers, stops
$0.9280 100-day ma
$0.9240/50 Medium offers ($0.9249 - 22 Nov high)
$0.9220 Medium offers ($0.9216 - 5-day ma)
$0.9204 Intraday high
$0.9165 ***Current market price 0855GMT Tuesday
$0.9150 Medium demand ($0.9156 - Asia low)
$0.9120 Strong demand, large stops ($0.9120 - 25 Nov low)
$0.9100 Strong demand on approach, barrier, stops
$0.9080 Strong demand, stops
$0.9063 76.4% of $0.8848-0.9758
$0.9050 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
$0.9038 4 Sep low
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y100.00, Y100.15,
Y100.20(L), Y100.25, Y100.40, Y100.50, Y100.70,
Y101.00
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500, $1.3505, $1.3525,
$1.3550, $1.3590, $1.3600
* Cable; $1.6100
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2420
* Kiwi; $0.8330
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0500, C$1.0555
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