DayTrading: Piątek 22.11.2013

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: Friday is another full day on both sides of the Atlantic, with a solid
mix of both data and central bank speakers. The European data calendar gets
underway at 0700GMT, when the German detailed third quarter GDP data will be
released. At 0830GMT, 0830/0330 ECB President Mario Draghi will give a speech to
the EBC, in F'furt. There will probably be little new from Draghi following his
speech in Berlin on Thursday. At 0900GMT, the main European data release crosses
the wires, when the Nov IFO business climate index is set for release. Analysts
are looking for a modest uptick in the Business climate to 107.7 and the Current
assessment to 111.5. At 0900GMT, the Italian Sept retail sales numbers will be
released, with expectations of a 0.1% rise on month. German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble will deliver a speech to EBC, in Ffurt at 1045GMT. There is
an extraordinary meeting of Eurogroup FinMins, set for midday GMT in Brussels.
At the same time, German Chancellor Merkel and Greek PM Samaras will deliver a
joint press conference, in Berlin. At 1400GMT, Belgium's Nov BNB business survey
will cross the wires. At 1530GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet will
sit on a Paris panel discussing the financial future of Europe.


US: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on bank
supervision at a Bank of France conference in Paris, starting at 1345GMT. In the
US, the data calendar gets underway at 1500GMT, with the release of the
September JOLTS, the October BLS State Unemployment numbers and the third
quarter E-Commerce numbers. The November Kansas City Fed Production data will be
released at 1600GMT. Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo will deliver a speech
on shadow banking to Economic Policy Institute in Washington, starting at
1715GMT. The last US data will be released at 2000GMT, when the November
Treasury Allotments numbers will be published.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Nov 22 ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at Euro Finance Week at 0830GMT
- Nov 22 ECB Noyer, Praet, Nowotny speak at conference in Paris at 0800GMT
- Nov 22 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Nov 22 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.962bln
- Nov 26 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
- Nov 26 Italy sells new 2-year CTZ for up to E3bln
- Nov 27 Italy T-bill auction
- Nov 28 Italy medium-long BTP auction
- Nov 29 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Dec 03 ESM bill auction
- Dec 05 ECB Governing Council meeting, Staff forecast, Draghi press conference
- Dec 05 Spain bond auctions
- Dec 09 Eurogroup meeting
- Dec 10 ECOFIN meeting
- Dec 10 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills



EURO SUMMARY: The euro started in Asia this morning at $1.3470 after carving out
a $1.3443 to $1.3487 trading range in the US last night, the euro running to the
lows after ECB'S Asmussen commented that negative rates were available, although
the euro steadied into the close on adding that inflation risks were broadly
balanced. Euro-dollar's Asian action has been fairly muted though, especially
with the weekend nearing and a lot of focus on the Japanese currency today.
Euro-dollar was last at $1.3466, not far from where it had started the day,
following a $1.3462 to $1.3487 Asian morning range today. It traded the early
high as euro-yen gained this morning but the stronger dollar tone has prevailed.
Outlook for the euro isn't overly bullish with immediate offers ahead at $1.3500
and $1,3520 likely to limit the pair's upside potential in the near-term. Beyond
that, bulls would want to see a clear-cut move through $1.3579 before becoming
more convinced of the pair's direction.

22-Nov-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Failure To Retest Channel Base Adds Downside Pressure
RES 4: $1.3579 High Nov 20
RES 3: $1.3553 Channel base from Jul 10 low
RES 2: $1.3526/31 55-DMA, 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.3486/87 Hourly high, 5-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.3465
SUP 1: $1.3442 Low Nov 4
SUP 2: $1.3392/3400 100-DMA, High Aug 8
SUP 3: $1.3383 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832
SUP 4: $1.3313 200-week moving average
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar failed to retest the channel base as bulls yesterday
were capped by the 5-DMA which is now initial resistance today at $1.3486. Daily
studies still show a little upward progress but weekly studies are bearish, the
downside yesterday met support at $1.3400 and ahead of here initial support is
at $1.3442 - the Nov 4 low. A break below the $1.3400 level could initiate a
move down to test the original Jul 2012 support line at $1.3075.

EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3585-600 Medium offers/$1.3600-05 Stops
$1.3584 Wednesday Nov20 high (Bernanke react)
$1.3540/50 Medium offers
$1.3534 Cloud top
$1.3520 Medium offers/$1.3514 61.8% $1.3584-1.3400/Stops
$1.3500 Medium offers/$1.3492 50% $1.3584-1.3400
$1.3490 Int.Day high Asia (NY $1.3487)
$1.3487 ***Current mkt rate 0705GMT Friday
$1.3463 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3455/45 Medium demand
$1.3420 Medium demand
$1.3405 Cloud base
$1.3400/390 Strong demand/$1.3400 Nov21-$1.3390 Nov13 lows
$1.3392 Tech 100-dma


STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.6199, just off its posted
high of $1.6200 after rate had recovered through the day off an earlier Asian
base of $1.6072. Move came as sterling continued to trade with a general buoyant
tone making gains against the dollar but also in the crosses. Demand for cable
rolled across into early Asia and allowed rate to touch a high of $1.6202 in
opening trade before profit take selling emerged. Some suggestion that the early
move took out barrier interest at the figure, the market taking advantage of the
thin conditions before booking profit following the early pressured move. Rate
eased to session lows of $1.6178 before fresh demand emerged to take rate back
to retest the early highs. Rate again failed to build on the move above the
figure but was holding firm into Europe with rate trading around $1.6197. Cable
offers seen between $1.6200/05, a break to open a move toward $1.6215/20 where
next sell interest is reported in place. A break here to expose recent October
highs between $1.6248-60. Support $1.6180 ($1.6178 Asia low/Nov20 high), stops
$1.6170. Further demand noted between $1.6150/40 ahead of $1.6110/00.
Euro-sterling extended lows to stg0.8317 in Asia.

22-Nov-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Eye $1.6260 Despite Bearish Weekly Studies
RES 4: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
RES 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
RES 2: $1.6223/25 Daily Bolli band top, High Oct 18
RES 1: $1.6200/03 High Nov 21, High Sept 30
LATEST PRICE: $1.6195
SUP 1: $1.6146/49 5-DMA, High Nov 18
SUP 2: $1.6064/68 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, 21-DMA
SUP 3: $1.6045 55-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
COMMENTARY: Cable climbs a little further despite the bearish divergence in
weekly studies to close around the $1.6200 level - now initial resistance. A
break above could see a run up to $1.6260 - the double-top of Oct 1 and 23 where
strong downside pressure is expected. However, daily studies suggest they are
near overbought and failure to break above adds risk lower. Key support around
the 23.6% and 21-DMA at $1.6064/68 and below is daily Bolli base at $1.5913.

CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6381 2013 Jan2 high
$1.6300 Medium offers
$1.6280 Medium offers
$1.6250/60 Strong offers/$1.6258 Oct23 high;$1.6260 Oct1 high/Stops
$1.6248 Oct25 high
$1.6215/25 Medium offers
$1.6205 Medium offers/Stops
$1.6204 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.6202 (NY $1.6200)
$1.6194 ***Current market rate 0727GMT Friday
$1.6178 Int.Day low Asia (Nov20 high)
$1.6155/50 Medium demand
$1.6138 50% $1.6072-1.6204
$1.6125/20 Strong demand
$1.6105/00 Medium demand
$1.6072 Thursday Nov21 low/$1.6060 Tuesday Nov19 low


EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8464 Weds Nov13 high (seen in Asia)
stg0.8440 Medium offers
stg0.8430 Medium offers/Stops
stg0.8415/20 Strong offers/Stops
stg0.8395/400 Medium offers
stg0.8380/85 Medium offers/stg0.8378 61.8% stg0.8415-0.8317
stg0.8354-66 Medium offers/38.2%-50% stg0.8415-0.8325
stg0.8357 Thursday Nov21 high
stg0.8328 Int.Day high Asia
stg0.8333 Corresponds to E1.20
stg0.8323 ***Current market rate 0729GMT Friday
stg0.8317 Int.Day low Asia
stg0.8300 Strong demand/Nov7 low, ECB rate cut react
stg0.8285 50.0% 0.7756-0.8815
stg0.8258 76.4% stg0.8086-0.8815 2013 range


YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese yen started the Asian currency after a weak overnight
session which saw dollar-yen peak at Y101.16 and euro-yen at Y136.40 during the
US session. Dollar-yen resumed its uptrend this morning after it opened at
Y101.08 and soon took out the overnight high as Japanese stocks also rebounded
from yesterday's falls. Euro-yen also traded higher from its Y136.15 opening
level. Comments from BOJ governor Kuroda early this morning did the yen no
favors and dollar-yen gained further after Kuroda said he doesn't think the
current yen weakness is excessive, touching a Y101.37 high as it broke above a
rumored Y101.50 barrier while euro-yen went up to a new four-year high of
Y136.56. Yen pairs backed off from their respective highs into the late morning
on consolidation ahead of the weekend but the overall bearish yen tone is seen
persisting into the the rest of the global session today. Dollar-yen was last at
Y101.23 while euro-yen was at Y136.29. A failure to make further significant
gains above Y101.50 is likely to bring the focus back to the Y100.00 for
dollar-yen while a look at euro-yen charts suggests the next topside target will
be the Oct 26, 2009 high around Y138.50.

22-Nov-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Testing 76.4% At Y101.39
RES 4: Y102.50/53 Highs May 28, 29
RES 3: Y101.97/102.08 Lows May 20, 21
RES 2: Y101.53/61 Reversal high Jul 8, Rising channel top
RES 1: Y101.35/39 Hourly high, 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79
LATEST PRICE: Y101.09
SUP 1: Y100.87/101.00 High Jul 19, Hourly low
SUP 2: Y100.47 23.6% of Y97.62-101.35
SUP 3: Y100.23/24 Daily Tenkan, Nov 8 channel base
SUP 4: Y99.93/99 38.2% of Y97.62-101.35, High Sept 12
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen posted a white marabuzo candle yesterday and now already
testing resistance around Y101.39 - the 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79. Bulls are
attempting to break and close above to test the channel top around Y101.61 while
weekly studies rise, however daily and monthly studies are overbought adding
risk lower. Initial support seen around Y101.00 which is also the hourly low -
break below here tests the new 23.6% of Y97.62-101.35 seen at Y100.47.

22-Nov-2013 7:48
EURO-YEN TECHS: Breaks Above Y136.00 To Highest Since Oct 2009
RES 4: Y138.19 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y137.05 Rising channel top from Nov 8 low
RES 2: Y136.85/89 2% 21-DMA env top, Jul 2009 reversal high
RES 1: Y136.55/62 Hourly high, Daily Bollinger band top
LATEST PRICE: Y136.15
SUP 1: Y135.95 High Nov 20
SUP 2: Y135.29 23.6% of Y131.15-136.55
SUP 3: Y134.95/99 High Sept 19, High Oct 29
SUP 4: Y134.73/78 Daily Tenkan, Rising channel base
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen stormed higher yesterday to close above Y136.00 - the
highest since October 2009. Daily studies still in overbought territory and
bears are now retesting the Y136.00 level and a close below could see daily
studies reverse lower - further support at Y135.29 the 23.6% of Y131.22-135.55.
However, a break above daily Bolli top at Y136.62 could see bulls stretch gains
further as topside resistance is thin - Jul 2009 reversal high is at Y136.89.


OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y99.00(VL), Y99.50(VL), Y100.00(L), Y100.6(L), Y100.65(L),
Y100.50, Y101.00(VL), Y101.10
* Euro-yen; Y135.00, Y136.00
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3475, $1.3490, $1.3500,
$1.3510, $1.3650
* Cable; $1.6100, $1.6150
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8325, stg0.8425
* Aussie; $0.9250, $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9340, $0.9350
* Kiwi; $0.8300
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0425, C$1.0430, C$1.0500, C$1.0560, C$1.0585

[uciekinier]

o 9:30 jest jeszcze Marian

9,30 ???
ja mam 10,30 czasu PL
http://pl.investing.com/economic-calendar/

[psxor]

Panowie jak widzicie złoto? zagrałem dzisiaj pierwszy raz na tym instrumencie najmniejszą możliwą pozycja (10oz) tak żeby zobaczyć jak to idzie, bo dostałem sygnał od znajomego brokera kupna po cenie rynkowej z SL na 1235. Generalnie pozycja już jest na 0, pytanie czy są szanse na wzrosty czy raczej dalej z trendem.

[belzebub]

o 9:30 jest jeszcze Marian

9,30 ???
ja mam 10,30 czasu PL
http://pl.investing.com/economic-calendar/

patrzyłem na kilku stronkach co korzystam i jest 9:30,
np.: http://bossafx.pl/fx/analizy/kalendarium/

[rafmax]

o 9:30 jest jeszcze Marian

9,30 ???
ja mam 10,30 czasu PL
http://pl.investing.com/economic-calendar/

patrzyłem na kilku stronkach co korzystam i jest 9:30,
np.: http://bossafx.pl/fx/analizy/kalendarium/

10:30 PL

[Nowy123]

164 i przestanekna GBP JPY:)

[grz3siek]

Do czego może doprowadzić forex:

Próbka krwi - zero potasu, zero fosforu

Symptomy - tentno w spoczynku 110 / min, rozchwianie nerwowe, bezsenność

Powód - silne nerwy

Sposób zapobiegania - każdy trader powinien wpier***** dużo pomidorów

Przez te wykresy prawie się dziś nie przekręciłem

[pedro]

164 i przestanekna GBP JPY:)

zaskoczył pięknie

[Nowy123]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... 21_SPX.jpg

[psxor]

Do czego może doprowadzić forex:

Próbka krwi - zero potasu, zero fosforu

Symptomy - tentno w spoczynku 110 / min, rozchwianie nerwowe, bezsenność

Powód - silne nerwy

Sposób zapobiegania - każdy trader powinien wpier***** dużo pomidorów

Przez te wykresy prawie się dziś nie przekręciłem