1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
powrót do 101,00 jest pożądany
Japonia też by wolała wsiąść w byczą skórę, według edka na poziomie wsparcia przy NFP
jakby nie patrzeć 100 pipsów ich ominęło na uj
-- Dodano: pn 08-07-2013, 1:56 --
oczekuję cofki do 101,00 w godzinach 8:00-9:00 i marsz na 105,00
Nikkei jest pobudzony jak wataha czołgów
TOKYO'S NIKKEI SHARE AVERAGE OPENS UP 1.27 PCT AT 14,491.07
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
pr7emo pisze:powrót do 101,00 jest pożądany
Japonia też by wolała wsiąść w byczą skórę, według edka na poziomie wsparcia przy NFP
jakby nie patrzeć 100 pipsów ich ominęło na uj
-- Dodano: pn 08-07-2013, 1:56 --
oczekuję cofki do 101,00 w godzinach 8:00-9:00 i marsz na 105,00
Nikkei jest pobudzony jak wataha czołgów
TOKYO'S NIKKEI SHARE AVERAGE OPENS UP 1.27 PCT AT 14,491.07
Bujamy na 100 81
-- Dodano: pn 08-07-2013, 3:40 --
ide spac jutro pokaze co i jak moze dadza rade szerokosc kanalu zrobic na m 5 TP ustawione SL na zysk i czas lulac
EUROPE: This week's US calendar is light on data, with the latest FOMC minutes
likely to be the main event. There is a fuller US data calendar, although the
main releases are expected later in the week. Monday's calendar kicks off at
0600GMT with the release of the German May trade balance. Analysts see the
balance coming in at E17.8 billion. At 0630GMT, the French June Ban of France
business survey will be published at 0630GMT. At 0800GMT, ECB Governing Council
member Ewald Nowotny will give a press conference on the Financial Stability
Report, in Vienna. German May industrial output numbers will cross the wires at
1000GMT. Economist estimates see both the M/M and Y/Y numbers down 0.5%. Also at
1000GMT, the EMU May OECD leading indicator is expected.
IRELAND: Speaking Sunday, Patrick Honoham, head of the Irish Central Bank, said
he hopes new rules will lead to repossession of in arrears "buy-to-let"
mortgages, but adds he hopes few owner-occupiers will be repossessed.
IRELAND: The Irish Times says the government is set to hold an inquiry into the
banking crisis in the autumn, the Irish Times says.
GREECE: The new senior Greek tax collector tells the Telegraph that as much as
E42 billion in taxes and other monies owed to the state may never be collected
due to bankruptcies, debts and poor tax collection in the past.
US: /CANADA: Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets underway at 1230GMT with the
release of the Canadian May Building permits data. In the US, at 1400GMT, the
June Employment Trends Index data will cross the wires. At 1900GMT, the May
consumer credit numbers will be released. Estimates see the number coming in at
$12.5 bn.
US PRESS: /FED: The WSJ says former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is in
the frame as one of the favourites for the Fed chair, adding Summers, also
formerly on Obama's National Economic Council, has made it known to "friends" he
is interested in the job.
EURO SUMMARY: The euro fell to a low of $1.2806 on Friday in New York, following
a positive reading of US non-farm payrolls for June, and continued with a heavy
tone through that session before ending the day around $1.2834. This morning in
Asia, the single currency started near $1.2811 as weekend reports about debt
problems in peripheral Eurozone economies kept the rate soggy but climbed to an
early $1.2835 high when bids from European accounts appeared from $1.2810. The
pair turned back again to $1.2811 as Asian stock markets retreated, and sell
orders then materialized near $1.2850, with more selling also cited beyond from
$1.2890. Further dips below the May 17 lows around $1.2797, if followed with a
move below April 4 lows near $1.2746, would suggest scope for a return to Nov
2012 lows of $1.2662. The pair has so far stayed within the $1.2811 to $1.2835
range through the rest of the morning, last at $1.2815. Germany trade balance at
0600GMT and EZ Sentix index at 0830GMT provides the morning interest in another
wise data thin week. FOMC Minutes Wednesday the highlight. Eurozone FinMins meet
Mon/Tue with market awaiting decision on the next tranche of Greek aid.
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.2930/35 Medium offers
$1.2880-900 Medium offers
$1.2850 Medium offers on approach
$1.2835 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2820 ***Current mkt rate 0605GMT Monday
$1.2811 Int.Day low Asia (NY Fri $1.2806 low post US NFP)
$1.2810/00 Medium demand/$1.2800 t-line sppt Nov'12
$1.2797 May17 low
$1.2790 Stops
$1.2780 Medium demand
$1.2755/45 Medium demand
$1.2745/40 Stops
STERLING SUMMARY: Closed in NY Friday at $1.4890 after rate had been shoved down
to extended lows of $1.4855 following the release of strong US employment data,
adding to Thursday's dovish forward guidance from new BOE Governor Carney. Rate
opened Asia slightly higher around $1.4910 but came under early pressure which
allowed rate to sink back to $1.4859 before it settled between $1.4868/83
through the balance of the session, trading around $1.4878 into Europe. Rate so
far remains buoyed above $1.4850, a break here to expose the 2013 lows of
$1.4832, with a 76.4% retrace level of $1.4231-$!.6747 (2010 low-highs) coming
in at $1.4825. Stops seen placed on a break of $1.4820. Further demand seen into
$1.4800. Offers $1.4915/20, a break to open a move toward $1.4970-90.
Euro-sterling was contained within a range of stg0.86125-0.8624 through Asia.
Offers in the cross seen between stg0.8625/35. Support stg0.8600-0.8590, stops
below.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen on Friday briefly broke above the daily Ichimoku cloud
top at Y101.16 in the US, supported by the payrolls data reading, but eased in
late trade to close near Y101.14 while euro-yen also ended near that day's high
at Y129.82. Dollar-yen started in Asia with a jump through Friday's US high and
initially rose to a Y101.54 high, aided by a positive opening in Japanese stocks
as well as demand for a rumoured toushin auction today. Dollar-yen however ran
into thick selling interest near the highs, as the domestic stock markets began
to ease, while the toushin auction outcome disappointed many in the market,
according to dealers. The cross also gained early to Y130.19 before slipping to
a Y129.64 low. The pair traded back to lows near Y101.08 in mid-morning before
then regaining some ground to Y101.30 in the early afternoon, courtesy of modest
demand spotted from Y101.00, while the cross was last at Y129.83, just about
where it had closed on Friday. Ichimoku analysts are seen setting sights on the
May high of Y103.74 in dollar-yen.
NEWS: JAPAN'S NIKKEI 225 INDEX ENDS DOWN 1.40% AT 14109.34
AUSSIE: Friday's buoyant US jobs data pushed Aussie-dollar down to a $0.9049 low
that day before it then started a new week around $0.953 this morning. The rate
edged higher in early Asian trade, getting up to as high as $0.9068 before
Japanese accounts sold yen crosses, including Aussie-yen in the wake of the
toushin results this morning, sending Aussie-dollar through Friday's US low for
$0.9042. Since then recoveries have been shallow with the pair last at $0.9054
as a down day in Asia-Pacific stocks keep pressure on the pair. Interim support
is now seen at $0.9040/30 with a break there likely to run into bids defending a
$0.9000 barrier. MNI techs also note support below $0.9000 at $0.8984, which
marks the 21-day lower Bollinger band limit, with moves below likely to seek out
$0.8771, levels not seen since Aug 2010.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the Eurozone this week is
scheduled from Netherlands, Germany and Italy -- estimated to be E15.5bln vs
E16.858bln last week. Netherlands will be first to the market with plans to
re-open 10-year benchmark July 2023 DSL for between E1.5bln and E2.5bln on
Tuesday. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens 2-year benchmark 0.0% Jun 2015 Schatz
for up to E5.0bln. Then on Thursday Italy plan to come to the market with their
middle of month medium/long-term BTP and CCTeu auction, with confirmation of
bonds and size of auction to be announced on Monday evening, but with expected
size of E8.0bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are redemptions from
France for E17.725bln, while coupon payments amount to E2.291bln also from
France - to turn net cash flow positive to the tune of E4.5bln vs E25.06bln last
week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction
calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Germany, France, Greece, ESM and Italy. Supply is estimated to be
around E25.0bln, up from E12.687bln issued last week. First up on Monday will be
Germany with plans to issue new 6-month Jan 15, 2014 Bubill for up to E4.0bln.
In the afternoon France plans to issue new 3-month Oct 10 BTF for between
E3.8-E4.2bln, tap 6-month Dec 27 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln and tap 12-month
Jun 26, 2014 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln. On Tuesday, Greece plan to issue
E1.25bln new 26-week Jan 10, 2014 T-bill. Also on Tuesday the ESM plan to issue
new 3-month Oct 10 for up to E2.0bln. On Wednesday Italy plan to issue E2.5bln
new Flexi Dec 19, 2013 BOT and E7.0bln 12-month July 14, 2014 BOT. In terms of
T-bill redemptions for this week, we have France with E5.528bln, Germany
E4.0bln, Italy E10.645bln, Greece E2.0bln and ESM E1.995bln giving potentially a
negative net cash flow of E0.7bln.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
co myslicie o EJ na teraz? Odbije czy pójdzie dalej?
