DayTrading: Czwartek 04.07.2013

[kubuś puchatek]

USDCAD- może nam się szykować ciut większy ruch w dół. Pożyjemy zobaczymy, ale MACD na dziennym jest w ciekawym miejscu.

[niemiaszek]

Hello







UK: US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday Thursday and there
are only a few entries on the European calendar, albeit two the the bggest
monthly set pieces - the ECB and BOE policy meetings. The only UK numbers set
for publication are the June SMMT New Car Registrations expected at 0800GMT. At
1100GMT, the July BOE Monetary Policy Decision is expected. The meeting is new
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's first. Analysts are near unanimous in the
belief that the July MPC meeting, whatever the views of Carney, will end with
unchanged policy. The key decision making month is August, not July, and it
would make littl sense, not least from a communications perspective, for the MPC
to jump the gun. At its August meeting the MPC will have the updated quarterly
economic forecasts that underpin that month's Inflation Report.

UK PRESS: There was a victory for the City of London in Brussels on Wednesday,
as the European Parliament voted down plans to cap salaries/bonuses of fund
managers, the Telegraph reports. However, the lawmakers warned that future
legislation will lead to greater demands on transparency.

UK PRESS: /BOE: A split again on the Times Shadow MPC this month, with two
members saying there should be an additional stg25 bn in QE to underpin the
recovery. Seven other members voted for no change, but called for forward
guidance to to how and and how to prepare for eventual QE exit.



EURO SUMMARY: The euro closed in New York around $1.3009, after rate had
recovered off a $1.2923 session low to $1.3032 before drifting off into the
close. In Asia, euro-dollar inched up to $1.3023 just before Japanese stocks
opened but a lack of follow-through sparked some sell interest, notably from
European names, initially seen at $1.3010. Euro-dollar then continued with a
heavy tone through the morning as traders looked ahead to the ECB meeting later
today and what ECB President Mario Draghi might say in light of what appears to
be renewed concerns about Eurozone debt, and tensions in Mideast/Nth Africa.
Euro-dollar briefly saw a mild lift to $1.3006 as Aussie-dollar rebounded but
eventually eased again to trade a low of $1.2988, settling around $1.2990 as
European markets gear up for their start, but faces strong sell interest from
$1.3080 to $1.3100, according to dealers.


STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Wednesday at $1.5277 having seen a strong
recovery off extended lows of $1.5130 to $1.5305 following the release of
stronger than forecast UK services PMI data (seen relieving suggestions of a
dovish statement from new BOE Governor Carney after today's BOE MPC rate/QE
decision - no changes expected). A statement would be unusual after a no change
decision, but suggestions have been swirling that Carney could put out something
as an introduction to his new position, the market knowing that he is keen on
policy transparency. Rate slowly continued to pare Wednesday's gains through the
Asian session, the rate easing to an eventual low of $1.5250, edging back to
$1.5265 into Europe. Halifax House Price Index due up at 0700GMT though this
will be overshadowed by the BOE rate decision at 1100GMT, followed later by ECB
rate decision/press conference at 1145GMT/1230GMT respectively. US holiday
expected to make for thin markets with the possibility of volatile reactions.
Cable demand remains at $1.5250/40, more at $1.5225/20. Resistance $1.5300/10.
Euro-sterling was contained within a range of stg0.8514-21 in Asia,
consolidating Wednesday's sharp corrective pullback from stg0.8575 to stg0.8482.


YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen ended in the US at Y99.91 and started in Asia with
another brief foray above Y100.00, while the cross, which had closed NY at
Y129.97, edged up through Y130.00 for Y130.20 before Asian markets got underway.
A weak opening in Japanese stocks sent dollar-yen sliding back through Y100.00,
and it traded a Y99.70 low soon after, while euro-yen pulled back in tandem to
Y129.72. Japanese stocks pared their losses in the morning, and helped
dollar-yen edge closer to Y100.00. Exporter offers are noted behind this level
at Y100.20. Dollar-yen settled between Y99.75/90 into the Asian afternoon.
Importer demand is noted below Y99.50 with talk emerging of 'ugly stops' in
place below Y99.00. Euro-yen was also holding near its lows, having extended
that to Y129.61 amid worries about Eurozone debt problems, while some in the
market waited vainly for a recovery in stock markets to spur short-covering.

MNI: Japan's benchmark stocks are modestly lower Thursday. The Nikkei 225 was
lower by 36.63 points, or 0.26%, at 14018.93. Into the close, the broader-based
TOPIX was lower by 1.43 points at 1172.38. Market breadth indicators saw 84
issues higher, 125 lower and 16 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.245 bn
shares.


AUSSIE: The Aussie market started today continuing to harp over RBA Governor
Glenn Stevens remarks yesterday that the board took a long time to deliberate
its rate decision on Tuesday. Aussie-dollar opened in Sydney around $0.9087,
after a $0.9037 to $0.9190 US session range. MNI story earlier stated the remark
was meant to be light-hearted and may have been read wrongly coincided with the
market's discussions which helped Aussie-dollar see an early bounce to $0.9119,
aided also by stops above $0.9100. Weak building approvals data however led to
some unwinding of positions for a low of $0.9076 before the market paused. RBA
Deputy Governor Philip Lowe, during a speech later, then confirmed the earlier
discussion about Stevens' remarks, triggering a rally in Aussie to $0.9130
highs, before the market settled back at $0.9112. The rate continued to hold
there as the market looked ahead to a likely quiet session ahead due to the US
holiday later, although the ECB and BOE meetings ahead could potentially deliver
some action.


OPTIONS: Expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.2935, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3120, $1.3190
* Dollar-yen; Y99.00, Y99.50, Y99.60, Y99.75, Y100.00, Y100.10, Y101.00
* Euro-yen; Y130.25
* Cable; $1.5150
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8500
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9600
* Aussie; $0.9050, $0.9070, $0.9150, $0.9200


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Spain and France both come to the Eurozone bond issuance
market Thursday. Spain will be first up with plans to tap its 3-year benchmark
3.30% Jul 2016 Bono, and sell a new benchmark 5-year 3.75% Oct 2018 Bono for
between E3.0bln-E4.0bln indicative size. France then plans to tap the 10-year
benchmark 1.75% May 2023 OAT and also the 15-year benchmark 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT
for between E7.0bln-E8.0bln indicative size. To recap issuance so far this week
Austria tapped E900mln of 4.65% Jan 2018 RAGB and E600mln 2.40% May 2034 RAGB
issues. On Wednesday Germany sold E3.365bln of its 5-year benchmark 0.25% Apr
2018 Bobl. Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is
estimated to come in around E17.65bln vs E18.3bln sold last week. In terms of
reinvestment flows, coupon payment from Germany E12.0bln, Finland E1.1bln and
Italy E0.8bln along with redemptions from Germany E22.0bln, Finland E6.5bln,
Greece E0.08bln and Slovakia E0.23bln -- turns net cash positive to the tune of
E25.06bln vs -E17.7bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please
see eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.

[ForexTig3r]

Chyba jednak spadamy na Jenie - Nikkei na oporze.

Jak przebijemy na UJ TL

TL H12. przełamanie TL H4, na Nikkei wsparcie 13500 = wsparcie TL H12 potem UP i realizacja RGR.

[molmomas]

jak zejdziemy poniżej1.29 na edku to mamy możliwość realizacji RGRa z d1
ale do tego musiałby być pretekst, których nawiasem mówiąc nie brakuje.

[atlanticos]

jak zejdziemy poniżej1.29 na edku to mamy możliwość realizacji RGRa z d1
ale do tego musiałby być pretekst, których nawiasem mówiąc nie brakuje.

największym pretekstem są coraz lepsze PMI ze strefy euro i niemal 90% pewnosc że nie doczekamy się ujemnej stopy... życzę powodzenia... Przypominam że PMI ze strefy euro są już, teraz namacalnie lepsze, a ograniczenie QE w USA to dopiero ewentualność (zapowiedź), która może ale wcale nie musi szybko nastapic

[ForexTig3r]

Zaskakujące jak wysoko jest postawiona poprzeczka obecnie EZ wobec USA.
W EZ wystarczy, iż dane dalej nie będą spadać, pomimo dalszej recesji (a i to nie musi być jednoznaczne), natomiast w USA muszą być coraz to lepsze przy i tak dobrych obecnie...

-- Dodano: 04 lip 2013, 09:55 --

Przypominam że PMI ze strefy euro są już, teraz namacalnie lepsze, a ograniczenie QE w USA to dopiero ewentualność (zapowiedź), która może ale wcale nie musi szybko nastapic

Niezwykle małe prawdopodobieństwo, iż nie nastąpi. Raczej kwestia skali i czasu.
Ben powiedział wyraźnie iż nastąpi, natomiast powiedział również iż luzowanie będzie prowadzone tak długo jak będzie to konieczne.
To jest rynek spekulacyjny, który wyprzedza fakty, a więc to już się dla rynków odbyło.

[molmomas]

pragnę zauważyć, że jeżeli PMI będą dobre mogą być nawet powyżej 50 to może wystąpić coś takiego jak miało miejsce w zeszłym roku, czyli ignorowanie pewnych wskaźników przez inwestorów gdy okaże się że np. Włochy nie mają kasy albo Grecja nie wywiąże się z uzgodnionych umów i nie otrzyma ostatniej transzy pomocy,
Ponadto patrząc na wczorajszy stan Portugalii gdzie giełda traciła 5,3% możemy się spodziewać realizacji tego rgra.
Proszę mi powiedzieć Co zrobiła Europa by ugasić postępujący kryzys ????
Nic. Lekko przyćmiła ogień zapomogą dla Grecji i Cypru ale każdy wie że w długim terminie to porażka i trzeba zmienić całkowicie politykę w strefie Euro by móc rozmawiać o długoterminowych korzyściach dla europejskiej gospodarki.
Pozdrawiam

[zastapmnie]

Wczoraj kabel pokazał moc. Sygnał bardzo byczy na dziennym. Kolega, który lubi go obserwować wieszczy 1,6 w niedalekiej przyszłości...

[ForexTig3r]

WIG20 oRGR

[Bemowo1]

Wczoraj kabel pokazał moc. Sygnał bardzo byczy na dziennym. Kolega, który lubi go obserwować wieszczy 1,6 w niedalekiej przyszłości...

chyba konsolidacja, przy zejściu poniżej 1.5220 kłopoty dla L