1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: There is a full calendar Monday, with data releases on both sides of the
week. However, the real standout events come later in the week with the RBA, BOE
and ECB policy meets. Also, the US Jobs report is expected Friday, coming the
day after the Independence Day holiday. Early data Monday sees the release of
the final manufacturing PMI numbers in Europe. At 0713GMT, the Spanish numbers
are expected, followed at 0743GMT by Italy, France at 0748GMT, Germany at
0753GMT and the eurozone combined data at 0758GMT. Final June PMIs are expected
to confirm the impression of an economic bloc still firmly in recession, but
with the pace of contraction at least becoming less eye watering. Further
eurozone data is expected at 0900GMT, with the release of the May unemployment
numbers, expected to show a rise to a fresh record high at 12.3%, up from 12.2%
in April.
EU: The EU's framework on recovery and resolution of troubled banks (draft
directive last Thursday) increased the likelihood of credit bail-ins, even for
banks outside of formal resolution, Moody's says in its credit outlook report.
The framework would allow losses to be imposed on a broad range of liabilities,
including senior unsecured debt, and is credit negative for EU bank senior
creditors, Moody's says. "Overall, the agreed-upon bail-in framework is a clear
and binding statement of intent by EU economic and finance ministers that
creditors should bear losses ahead of taxpayers in resolutions. While some
flexibility exists, the policymakers' clear intention is that flexibility should
not be used to support bank debtholders except in extremis, a credit negative
for all senior unsecured debtholders," Moody's says.
EU: Croatia to "become the 28th member of the European Union at midnight on
Sunday," the Sunday Telegraph reported, while "facing a fifth year of recession
and record unemployment of 21 percent," undermining "support for the union,"
somewhat.
FRANCE: Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National in France, says she will
pull France from the euro and "split" monetary union apart, if she wins he next
Presidential election, the Telegraph reports. The Front National won a
by-election last week, securing 46% of the vote and currently runs tied in
national polls with the socialists and the Gaullistes.
GREECE: Troika officials return to Athens for fresh negotiations on Monday, with
eKthimerinbi saying a draft document indicates the need for new austerity
measures if authorities fail to meet current revenue targets as well as plug a
newly seen funding gap.
UK PRESS: All the broadsheets lead with the reminder that today is the first day
in the new job for incoming BOE Governor Mark Carney. They note a full inbox for
the Governor many observers are calling the most powerful since the 1940s.
Carney will be off to a flying start this week, as the MPC meet Weds/Thurs for
the July policy decision.
UK PRESS: the Kuwait Investment Authority is looking to invest around $5 bn
directly into UK infrastructure assets over the next 3 to 5 years, the FT says.
UK PRESS: A shortage of houses on the market is continuing to push asking prices
higher, up by 0.4% on month in June, property group Hometrack says, the
Telegraph reports.
UK PRESS: The head of UK house builders Taylor Wimpey says the Help To Buy
scheme could be a "genuine hazard" to the economy unless there is an immediate
time limit imposed on the scheme, the Telegraph reports.
UK PRESS: The FT says "Trophy Homes" in London have risen 60% in value since
2009, boosted in large part by an influx of overseas buyers.
US PRESS: The WSJ notes the US economy seems to be enjoying the longest run in
three years without Washing facing some form of fiscal deadline. However, the
paper warns that the next fight over the debt-ceiling is fast approaching, with
the current limit likely to be hit in the Sept-November period.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Friday at $1.3010, recovering off a low
of $1.2991 after it had been sold down from a high of $1.3106 as the dollar saw
strong demand at the end month fix. Rate extended its recovery to $1.3028 before
settling between $1.3010/25 for most of the early session before getting a late
session lift to $1.3033 as small stops above $1.3030 were targeted and
triggered. A new month, quarter and half year with the dollar beginning on a
buoyant note with short end yields seen driving. Eurozone manufacturing PMI data
due this morning from 0713GMT (Spain) through to 0758GMT (EZ) with EZ
unemployment and inflation data following at 0900GMT. US final PMI and ISM data
due into the afternoon at 1258GMT and 1400GMT. Resistance seen into $1.3035
(38.2% $1.3106-1.2991), more toward $1.3050 with more stops noted on a break of
$1.3055. A break here to expose reported stronger sell interest placed at
$1.3075/80. Support seen into $1.3010/00, a break to expose Friday's low at
$1.2991, with stops noted below $1.2990. Strong corporate demand interest again
reported in the $1.2960/50 area.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Friday at $1.5213, the rate recovering off
a session low of $1.5165 seen as the rate saw extended lows following strong
dollar demand seen at the end month fix. Rate dipped to $1.5201 into the Asian
open before it picked up fresh demand that lifted it through the overnight
session to a late high of $1.5225. UK manufacturing PMI data due at 0828GMT
followed quickly by lending data at 0830GMT provides the early domestic
interest, though overshadowing this will be knowledge that this is Governor
Carney's first day at the BOE with sights set on Thursday's BOE MPC policy
decision. However, most do not expect any change in current interest rates/QE at
this first meeting, awaiting Minutes to gauge the effect the new governor will
have going forward. Resistance seen into $1.5250/60, a break to open a move on
toward $1.5280. Support $1.5200 ahead of $1.5180 and stronger interest at
$1.5165-50. Euro-sterling was held between stg0.85515-0.8561 through the
overnight session, opening Europe around stg0.8555.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Friday at Y99.14 after rate had extended
its recent recovery to Y99.45 on the back of month end fix demand. This
underlying buoyant tone carried across into Asia with rate getting pushed up to
a high of Y99.54 following the release of stronger than forecast Tankan.
However, the reactive rally met Japanese exporter sell interest which countered,
the corrective pullback to Y99.18 given added weight as the Nikkei turned
negative but buyers were quick to take advantage of the dip and edged rate back
to settle around Y99.40 into Europe. Traders report sell interest remaining in
place above Y99.50, and said to extend to Y99.80, with further offers then seen
into Y100.00. Weak talk has suggested barrier interest is back in place at that
latter level. A large plain vanilla option with a Y100.00 strike is set to roll
off at the NY cut. Stops noted above Y100.00. Euro-yen also reflected to softer
yen tone as this rate was pushed up to Y129.49 into Europe, from an early low of
Y129.04.
JAPAN: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Monday, boosted encouraging Japanese
data and the weaker yen. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 175.18 points, or 1.28%,
at 13852.50. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 15.65 points
at 1149.49. Market breadth indicators saw 181 issues higher, 34 lower and 10
unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.483 bn shares.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Possible sovereign syndicated deals in the eurozone still in
the pipeline also include Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg and Spain. Luxembourg is
perhaps seen as near-term candidate after it mandated BCEE, BGL BNP Paribas,
BIL, Deutsche Bank and HSBC for investor meetings in Frankfurt and London last
month for issuance of a Euro benchmark. Belgium is planning a syndicated
longer-dated bond when the time is appropriate, Anne Leclercq, the Belgian debt
chief told MNI last week. "There is a strong likelihood we will do something
long-dated, meaning either a 15Y or a 30Y bond", said Leclercq. Belgium in the
past launched three new benchmark bonds every year since 2008 and so far only
sold two syndicated deals -- 5-/10Y benchmark OLO issues this year. Belgium also
has opportunity of doing something longer than a 30Y maturity in its EMTN
programme, Leclercq added. Spain is likely to issue a new 15Y benchmark bond
issue by syndication -- if mkt conditions are stable according to Ignacio
Fernandez-Palomero Morales, Spain's deputy head of the Treasury and head of
funding and debt management. In addition, Italy is planning to launch a new
10-year linker bond later year, according to Italian debt chief Maria Cannata.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Netherlands, France, and Belgium. Supply is estimated to be around
E12.0bln, down from E20.912bln issued last week. First up on Monday will be
Netherlands with plans to re-open 3-month Sep 30 DTC for between E1.0-E2.0bln
and issue new 12-month Jun 30, 2014 DTC for between E1.0-E2.0bln. In the
afternoon France plans to tap 3-month Sep 26 BTF for between E3.8-E4.2bln, issue
new 6-month Dec 27 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln and tap 12-month Jun 26, 2014
BTF for between E1.4-E1.8bln. On Tuesday, Belgium plan to tap 3-month Oct 17
T-bill and tap 6-month Dec 19 T-bill for indicative target range of between
E1.5-E2.0bln. In terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we have only have
France with E7.78bln, giving potentially a negative net cash flow of E4.2bln.
EU: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jul 01 Lithuania takes over EU presidency
- Jul 01 Croatia joins the EU
- Jul 01 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Jul 01 EMU Jun final mfg PMI
- Jul 01 EMU May unemployment
- Jul 01 EU Rehn to join panel on perspectives for Europe, in Frankfurt
- Jul 02 Spain Jun unemployment
- Jul 02 EU Rehn speaks on the outcome of the June EU Council at European Parl
- Jul 02 ECB issues annual report, 'The International Role of the Euro'
- Jul 03 EU labour ministers meet to discuss youth unemployment
- Jul 03 EU Barroso to attend Youth Unemployment Summit, in Berlin
- Jul 03 EMU Jun final svc PMI
- Jul 04 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt
- Jul 04 Spain taps 3-year/new 5-year Bono bonds
- Jul 04 Cyprus bond redemption for E714.6mln
US: Timeline of upcoming key events in the US:
- Jul 01 Jun Markit PMI (final) at 0858ET
- Jul 01 Fannie Mae to announce Benchmark Note issuance
- Jul 01 Jun ISM Index, est 50 at 1000ET
- Jul 01 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET, auctions 3/6mo at 1130ET
- Jul 02 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Jul 02 Fed Dudley (voter) in Stamford, CT at 1230ET
- Jul 03 MBA Mortgage Index at 0700ET
- Jul 03 June Challenger Layoffs at 0730ET
- Jul 03 Jun ADP Natl Employment Report at 0815ET
- Jul 03 Jobless Claims at 0830ET
- Jul 03 May Intl Trade Balance at 0830ET
- Jul 03 ISM Non-Mfg Index at 1000ET
- Jul 03 UST announces bills, 3-10-30y at 1100ET
- Jul 04 US Independence Day holiday
- Jul 05 June Payrolls, early est +170k at 0830ET
Ostatnio zmieniony 01 lip 2013, 08:06 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
