1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Podbitka dolarowa, nowy coś mi się nie wydaje aby mieli spadać na JPY.
Jak widać drąży JEn, ale konsekwentnie prze to iż na innych parach taki marazm.
To już się kończy. AUDUSD S, EURAUD L - koniec korekty,
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EUROPE: The European calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the
German April construction orders data and the May retail sales numbers. Also to
be released through the morning session are the German state inflation numbers,
to be followed by the national HICP data at 1100GMT. From 0700GMT, EU leaders
arrive to discuss banking union and economic policy in Brussels. Italian data
set for release at 0800GMT includes the June ISTAT business survey numbers. Back
in the UK, at 0830GMT, the April Index of Services numbers will cross the wires.
Further Italian numbers are expected from 0900GMT, when the June flash HICP data
will cross the wires. The German Government's latest press conference, in
Berlin, will be held at 0930GMT.
GREECE: The Greek government is trying to avoid the collapse of a second main
privatisation, the FT reports, as the E700 mn sale of OPAP is on the brink.
UK: There is UK data expected at 0600GMT, when the June Nationwide House Price
Index data gives the latest outlook on the housing market. At 0830GMT, the April
Index of Services numbers will cross the wires.
UK PRESS: The Guardian notes a report released Thursday by the British
Geological Survey that suggests the UK could be sitting of 1300 trln cubic feet
of shale gas - a reserve that could supply the UK for 25 years.
UK PRESS: Incoming BOE Governor Carney should talk as little as possible in
public when taking over the role, a leading bond investor at M&G says, the Times
reports Jim Leaviss, who manages in excess of stg 30 bn in bonds investments,
says Carney should learn from the recent tapering miscommunications from Fred
Chair Bernanke. However, the paper notes Carney appeared to take little notice,
announcing the first of what the paper calls a string of media Q&A appearances
in August.
UK PRESS: The FT says the UK's National Grid has urged companies to consider
"curbing their use of electricity" on weekday evenings through the next winter.
The paper says the "suggestion" underlines the looming energy shortage the
country faces as new environmental laws could take 20% of capacity off line by
2020.
US: The US calendar starts at 1200GMT, when the first of the Fed speakers
appears, As US Federal Reserve Gov. Jeremy Stein gives a speech on monetary
policy to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. At 1315GMT, Richmond
Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker will deliver a speech on the
economic outlook in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. Economic data sees the
release of the June MNI Chicago Report at 1345GMT, followed by the June
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report at 1355GMT. The MNI Chicago
Report's business barometer is expected to fall back to a reading of 55.0 in
June after surging to 58.7 in May, the highest reading since May 2012. The
Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up slightly to a reading of
83.0 in June from the 82.7 preliminary reading. There are two further Fed
speakers to end the day. At 1600GMT, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Senior Vice
President Mark Schweitzer will deliver a speech. Then, at 1930GMT, San Francisco
Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a speech on the economy in
Rohnert Park, California.
US PRESS: /FED: The WSJ says the White House has started to look at candidates
to add to a short list to replace Fed Chair Bernanke in January, in the
expectation that he will not seek a third term. The paper says the search is in
early stage territory and there is no front runner, with names including Fed
Vice Chair Yellen seen as a favourite in the markets. Others mentioned include
Larry Summers, Roger Ferguson and Tim Geithner
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Thursday at $1.3037 after rate had
recovered off session lows of $1.3000 to $1.3057 before drifting off into the
close. Rate touched an early low of $1.3031 before fresh demand emerged to
extend the recovery. The move up was seen led by euro-yen, with triggered stops
on the move through Y128.70, then Y129.10 providing the momentum to lift
euro-dollar through its late NY recovery high and onto $1.3075 where it met
willing sellers sitting within the area of daily moving averages (100- $1.3069,
200- $1.3074, 55- $1.3078, 50- $1.3079 and 40-dma $1.3080). Move failed to
trigger reported stops placed above $1.3080 with rate drifting off toward
$1.3060 ahead of the European open. End month, quarter, half year linked flows
expected to influence market moves during the day. Early focus on German retail
sales data at 0600GMT, with German inflation data (following state releases)
expected into early afternoon. The MNI Chicago Report at 1345GMT ahead of UofM
at 1355GMT provides the afternoon focus. Offers remain in place between
$1.3075/80 with those stops above, a break to expose next resistance between
$1.3100/10, more stops above. Support $1.3030, $1.3000 and $1.2985/80.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.5256 after rate had been
able to recover off session lows of $1.5201 to $1.5266 before drifting off into
the close. Early trade in Asia was contained within $1.5250/65, dipped to
$1.5242 before picking up fresh demand that lifted it up to $1.5275 (76.4%
$1.5298-201). Rate eased off to $1.5261 before settling around $1.5270 into
Europe. Euro-sterling, which had been pressured to extended recovery highs of
stg0.8560 in NY, consolidated this move between stg0.85435/0.85635 in Asia,
trading around stg0.8555 into Europe. End month flows, as well as knock on
effects from Thursday's release of disappointing UK data (Q1 GDP y/y revised
lower, household income lower prompting suggestions that there is room for
increased QE), continue to keep the negative weight on sterling. However, Morgan
Stanley's end month flow call, based on equities and bonds, has suggested decent
demand for cable to be expected at today's fixes. Resistance remains at $1.5275,
a break to open a move toward $1.5295/00. Support remains into $1.5240, more on
approach to $1.5200 with $1.5185 seen key, the level corresponding to a 76.4%
retrace of the move up from $1.5009 to $1.5753 and 61.8% of $1.4832 to $1.5752.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y98.41, off recovery highs of Y98.57 but
the underlying buoyant tone was seen remaining in place into Asia. Fresh demand
into the overnight session took rate from an early low of Y98.34 through to an
eventual high of Y99.02, the move up aided by ongoing talk of Toshin influence,
fix demand and seen led by stronger demand for euro-yen. This latter rate
triggered stops through Y128.70 then Y129.10 to trade up to Y129.37. Dollar-yen
settled above Y98.80 into Europe, while euro-yen remained buoyed above Y129.00.
Asian traders have noted exporter sell interest placed above Y99.00, and seen
providing the main upside counter, with CTA stops noted on a break of Y99.10.
One US investment bank has noted decent demand in recent sessions coming from
importers, sovereigns and life companies and suggests this could eventually
drive rate up to Y100.00. End month, quarter, half with fix interest to provide
some drive. US MNI Chicago Report and UofM provides the interest this afternoon
and effect on UST yields.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Friday, boosted by
overnight US gains, a weaker yen and encouraging Japanese data. The Nikkei 225
was higher by 463.77 points, or 3.51%, at 13677.32. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 35.46 points at 1134.29. Market breadth
indicators saw 219 issues higher, 4 lower and 2 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.938 bn shares.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no sovereign bond issuance planned in the eurozone
Friday, with total supply this week coming in at E18.31bln vs E19.64bln sold
this week. As a recap, Belgium tapped its 1.25% June 2018 OLO69, 3.00% Sep 2019,
OLO67, 2.25% June 2023 OLO68 and 4.50% Mar 2026 OLO64 issues for combined size
of E2.708bln. On Tuesday, the Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) launched a new
5-year benchmark 1.25% Jan 2019 DSL bond via DDA for E6.1bln size and Italy sold
a new zero coupon June 2015 CTZ for E3.5bln and also tapped its 5-year 1.70% Sep
2015 BTPei, 15-year 3.10% Sep 2026 BTPei for E1.0bln. On Thursday, Italy tapped
its benchmark 5-year 3.50% June 2018 BTP and a 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for
E2.5bln size each. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption
payments and coupon payments from Belgium E0.4bln, Italy E0.1bln and Austria
E0.1bln -- to leave net cash flow negative to the tune of E17.7bln vs -E18.4bln
last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see eurozone bond
auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Looking ahead into next week, sovereign bond issuance in the
eurozone is planned from Austria, France, Germany and Spain -- estimated to come
in around E17.65bln vs E18.3bln sold this week. Austria comes to the market
first on Tuesday with of the 4.65% Jan 2018 RAGB & 2.40% May 2034 RAGB issues
for combined size E1.65bln. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 5-year benchmark
0.25% Apr 2018 Bobl issue for E4.0bln. On Thursday, France conducts its regular
long-term OAT auctions for an expected size of up to E8.0bln and Spain sells
Obligacion issues for an estimated size of up E3.5bln -- auctions details are
due to be announced later today. In terms of reinvestment flows, coupon payment
from Germany E12.0bln, Finland E1.1bln and Italy E0.8bln along with redemptions
from Germany E22.0bln, Finland E6.5bln, Greece E0.08bln and Slovakia E0.23bln --
turns net cash positive to the tune of E25.06bln vs -E17.7bln this week. For
full details of forthcoming issues, please see eurozone bond auction calendar &
MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jun 27/28 European Council Summit
- Jun 28 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Jun 28 Finland Treasury publishes quarterly review
- Jun 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.875bln
- Jun 29 Cyprus bond redemption for E1.889bln
- Jul 01 Lithuania takes over EU presidency
- Jul 01 Croatia joins the EU
- Jul 03 EU labour ministers meet to discuss youth unemployment
- Jul 04 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt
- Jul 04 Spain bond auctions
- Jul 04 Cyprus bond redemption for E714.6mln
- Jul 08 Eurogroup meeting
- Jul 09 EconFin meeting
- Jul 10 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Jul 10 Italy T-bill auction
US: Timeline of upcoming key events in the US:
- Jun 26 Fed Fisher and Fed Lacker testify at House Finl Ctee at 1000ET
- Jun 26 Tsy Cpn Purch 08/15/2020 - 05/15/2023 $2.75B-$3.50 billion
- Jun 26 UST auctions $35Bn 5yr at 1300ET
- Jun 27 Jobless Claims for Jun 22, est 345k at 0830ET
- Jun 27 May Pers Income, ests +0.2% PI, +0.3% PCE, +0.1% core PCE px at 0830ET
- Jun 27 Freddie Mac to announce Reference Note issuance
- Jun 27 NY Fed Pres Dudley on the job market for college grads in NY at 1000ET
- Jun 27 Senate Banking Ctee considers Watt nom for Dir of FHFA at 1000ET
- Jun 27 May NAR Pending Home Sales, est +1% at 1000ET
- Jun 27 Fed Gov. Powell at Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington at 1030ET
- Jun 27 Tsy Cpn Purch 06/30/2017 - 02/28/2018 $4.25B-$5.25 billion
- Jun 27 UST announces 3/6m bills at 1100ET
- Jun 27 Fed Lockhart (non-voter) at Kiwanis Club in Georgia at 1230ET
- Jun 27 UST auctions $29Bn 7y nts at 1300ET
- Jun 27 Money Supply (M2) at 1630ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
