Jak to czego zabezpieczeniem CHF są papiery dłużne za nieruchomości a te będą spadać dalej to CHF będzie się umacniać czymś te długi trzeba płacić a tu nie było raczej kreacji pieniądza a jeśli była to ograniczona
-- Dodano: pn 24-06-2013, 7:18 --
molmomas pisze:czyli jest szansa
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EUROPE: Monday's calendar is fairly quiet, with much of the week's main data and
central bank speakers due later in the week. However, the much watched Ifo is
due. However, markets will have plenty to focus on today, as markets in Asia
continue the volatility of recent session as US Treasury yields hit fresh 2-year
highs. At 0800GMT, the German Ifo Survey will be released. After the better than
expected euro area flash PMIs last week, markets will be looking for further
evidence of an improvement in the German economy. Expectations are for a modest
uptick in the Business Climate index to 105.9, with the Current Assessment seen
at 109.8. Also at 0800GMT, Italy's June ISTAT consumer confidence survey will be
released.
EUROPE: A Harris Poll for the FT shows many in southern countries believe that
Germany is increasingly dominating the EU. The poll shows strong objections to
German domination, particularly the German inspired austerity drive.
GERMAN PRESS: Government debt concerns should not prevent central banks from
raising interest rates when the time comes, ECB Governing Council member Jens
Weidmann said in an interview published late Sunday. Speaking to Germany's
Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Weidmann said he currently does not see inflationary
pressures in the Eurozone but stressed that "neither states nor the private
sector should assume that the current phase of low interest rates is here to
stay. They must be prepared to manage their debts in a normal interest rate
environment."
NEWS: SPAIN 10-YEAR YIELD BREAKS ABOVE 5% -- HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2
UK PRESS: Consumer sentiment is at its highest level in 2 years, the latest
Lloyds TSB Spending Power report shows, the Independent reports. However, the
reports still shows the balance between those expecting greater net spending
power ahead remains in negative territory, albeit at the least worst level since
the Summer of 2011.
UK PRESS: Chancellor George Osborne is set to announce further capital
investment plans at this week's spending review, the Guardian says, in an
attempt to offset fresh government spending cuts.
UK PRESS: The BIS has warned governments across the globe that they must up
their efforts reform economies, so as central banks can start to wind down their
support of the economies, the Times says.
UK PRESS: The FT says average pay packages for top bankers in Europe and the US
fell as much as 10% in 2012.
UK PRESS: Tax evasion cases in the UK are at the lowest level in 5 years, the FT
says, following efforts of HMRC to boost its crackdown tax evasion.
US TSYS: Short-covering, dip-buying, lack of follow-through selling from real
money accounts... All cited as reasons for a smart snap back in 10-yr UST
yields, after jumping to 2.62% just ahead of the London open. The yield gapped
higher to 2.62% in short-order after breaking above 2.602%, but has soon run
into fast money demand, driving the yield back below 2.60%. Ten-year futures
bounced just ahead of support at 125.12. Futures volume continues to grind
higher, with 138,000 lots on the board.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed Friday's session at $1.3122 after rate had seen
a decent recovery off session lows of $1.3098 to $1.3159 before it drifted off
$1.3118 ahead of the close. Rate had seen highs earlier in the day of $1.3240
with moves through Friday's session continuing to get driven by fall out from
Wednesday's FOMC Bernanke comments and the analysis of this to try and determine
the timing of Fed tapering. Rate saw an early high of $1.3127 into opening Asian
trade before it dipped to lows of $1.3087, settling between $1.3090/1.3115
through the balance of the session. Asian traders mentioned demand into $1.3080
with stops below, a break though to meet demand placed from $1.3070 ($1.3073
200-dma) with interest said to extend down to $1.3030-20. Resistance noted into
$1.3150, more at $1.3180 with stops above. Germany Ifo is set for release this
morning at 0800GMT with most reports suggesting market is expecting to see
unchanged to a slight pullback from May's 105.7. Some suggest that the euro
could be more vulnerable to downside surprises than any positive release with
peripheral Eurozone sentiment remaining negative and awaiting the outcome of the
Eurozone FinMins' make-or-break session concerning an EU banking union.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed Friday's NY session at $1.5419 after rate had
been sold down from an early day high of $1.5523 to $1.5368 in early NY,
recovering to $1.5456 before drifting off into the close. Rate dropped to
$1.5401 into the Asian open, extending pullback lows in early trade to $1.5370
before making a recovery attempt only for the rally to be thwarted by sell
interest sitting at $1.5400. Rate turned lower during the Asian afternoon,
extending lows to $1.5365 with recovery efforts this time faltering around
$1.5380 ahead of the European open. A light domestic data calendar today so
moves to come from activity in the euro, with focus then turning to UST yields
into the afternoon as the fall out from last Wednesday's FOMC comments continue
to get analyzed. Cable demand seen placed into $1.5350 with stops below.
Resistance seen at $1.5410 (Asia high) ahead of $1.5450/60. Cable seen opening
the European session back above $1.5380 ($1.5378 55-dma). Euro-sterling in Asia
was held within a range of stg0.85055-26 (stg0.8506 55-dma) with rate holding
just off highs around stg0.8520 into Europe.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Friday at Y97.90 after rate had seen
session lows of Y96.87 earlier in the day in Asia before recovering to Y98.13 in
Europe. Rate then bounced between Y97.32-99 through the NY session. Rate picked
up early demand pre Tokyo open on expectations that the Nikkei would open in
positive territory, the move also helped as the ruling governing coalition won a
respectable majority in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Nikkei did indeed open with
a positive tone which allowed dollar-yen to push above Y98.00 to an initial high
of Y98.50 before the index turned negative and rate dipped back to Y98.13, the
move down aided by suggested exporter supply at the Tokyo fix. The dip attracted
spec and tech demand, the move down in UST's prompting decent buying that lifted
the rate through the earlier high and on to Y98.70 before it settled between
Y98.35/55 ahead of the European open. Rate moves remain dictated by UST yields.
Asian traders note sell interest from Y98.80 through to Y99.00.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are sharply lower Monday, unable to
hold early morning gains. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 1.26% at 13062.78. The
session trading range was 12415.85 to 13050.11. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was lower by 9.28 points at 1090.12. Market breadth
indicators saw 95 issues higher, 122 lower and 8 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.365 bn shares.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is
scheduled from Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands -- total supply expected to
come in around E19.0bln vs E19.64bln sold this week. Belgium kicks off issuance
on Monday with tap of the 1.25% June 2018 OLO69, 3.00% Sep 2019, OLO67, 2.25%
June 2023 OLO68 and 4.50% Mar 2026 OLO64 issues for between E1.8bln-E2.8bln
indicative size. On Tuesday, the Netherlands is due to launch a new 5-year
benchmark 1.25% Jan 2019 DSL bond via DDA for minimum size of E5.0bln -- spread
guidance to be announced on Monday. Also on Tuesday, Italy sells a new zero
coupon June 2015 CTZ for between E2.5bln-E3.5bln and also taps its 5-year 1.70%
Sep 2015 BTPei, 15-year 3.10% Sep 2026 BTPei for between E500mln-E1.0bln.
Lastly, Italy on Thursday conducts its regular month-end auction, where tap of
benchmark 5-year 3.50% June 2018 BTP and a 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for an
expected size of up to E7.0bln -- details to be confirmed Monday. In terms of
reinvestment flows, there are no redemption payments and coupon payments from
Belgium E0.4bln, Italy E0.1bln and Austria E0.1bln -- to leave net cash flow
negative exactly unchanged to the tune of E18.4bln.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Supply is estimated to be around
E21.0bln, down slightly from E23.567bln issued last week. First up on Monday
will be Germany with plans to issue new 12-month Jun 24, 2014 Bubill for up to
E3.0bln. In the afternoon France plans to issue new 3-month Sep 26 BTF for
between E3.8-E4.2bln, tap 6-month Nov 28 BTF for between E1.2-E1.6bln and issue
new 12-month Jun 26, 2014 BTF for between E1.4-E1.8bln. On Tuesday, Spain plan
to tap 3-month Sep 20 Letra and tap 9-month Mar 14, 2014 Letra, with size to be
announced on Monday, but expected to be between E2.5 to E3.5bln. Finally on
Wednesday Italy plan to sell E8.0bln of a new 6-month Dec 31 BOT. In terms of
T-bill redemptions for this week, we have France E7.772bln, Germany E3.0bln,
Italy E8.875bln, and Netherlands E6.84bln giving potential positive net cash
flow of E4.9bln.
GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is planning to issue
up to E3.0bln of a new 12-month Bubill maturing Jun 24, 2013 on Monday. Current
12-month Bubill yield has risen over the course of June in wake of less dovish
comments from ECB's Draghi at the monthly press conference. Fed chairman
Bernanke's hawkish comments at the FOMC press conference also supported the move
higher in yields. This has led the market to pull back expectations of ECB rates
being cut in near-term. For comparison at the last 12-month T-bill auction back
on May 27, the treasury allotted E2.125bln at an average yield of 0.0011%, cover
of 2.3 times, and with E875mln or 29.7% retained for secondary market
operations. At last months sale, the 12-month Eonia rate was around 0.059%,
therefore giving a spread of -4.8bps, currently 12-month Eonia is seen around
0.207% level. There will be a E3.0bln Bubill redemption this week, therefore
leaving net cash flow flat. Results due to be announced shortly after 0930GMT.
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) plan to issue
new 3-month Sep 26, 2013 BTF for between E3.8-E4.2bln, tap 6-month Nov 28, 2013
BTF for between E1.2-E1.6bln, and issue new 12-month Jun 26, 2014 BTF for
between E1.4-E1.8bln on Monday. The BTF curve has bear steepened after a
volatile week which saw sharp rise in yields towards the end of the last week,
in wake of Fed Bernanke's comments on tapering asset purchases. Currently
mid-yield on the old 3-month BTF is seen around 3.2bps, the 6-month BTF is seen
around 7.5bps and the old 12-month BTF seen around 18.9bps. There will be a BTF
redemption this week of E7.772bln, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of
E172mln. For comparison, on Jun 17, the AFT sold E4.197bln 3-month BTF at an
average yield of 0.033% with cover of 2.06 times, E1.699bln 6-month BTF at an
average yield of 0.058% with cover of 2.91 times, and E1.693bln 12-month BTF at
an average yield of 0.099% with cover of 2.82 times. Results due to be announced
around 1255GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jun 24 German Ifo June survey
- Jun 24 Italy Jun ISTAT consumer confidence survey
- Jun 24 Ireland's Noonan Speaks to EU Parliament Committee
- Jun 24 Berlusconi faces verdict in Ruby trial
- Jun 25/26 Euromoney Global Borrowers Forum - inc debt chiefs
- Jun 25 ECB Draghi speaks at Economic Council for Germany in Berlin
- Jun 25 Italy CTZ/Linker bond auction
- Jun 25 Greek Bond redemption for E49.7mln
- Jun 25 Spain 3-/9-month T-bill auction
- Jun 26 Italy T-bill auction
- Jun 27/28 European Council Summit
- Jun 27 Italy BTP bond auction
- Jun 27 Germany June unemployment data
- Jun 27 EMU Jun business climate indicator/consumer confidence
- Jun 28 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
US: Timeline of upcoming key events in the US:
- Jun 24 Tsy Cpn Purch 03/31/2019 - 05/31/2020 $3.00B-$3.75 billion
- Jun 24 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- Jun 24 UST auctions 3/6mo at 1130ET
- Jun 24 Fed Fisher (non-voter) on monpol in London at 1300ET
- Jun 24 Jun Treasury Allotments at 1500ET
- Jun 25 IMF Chief Econ Blanchard at IIF in Paris at 0530ET
- Jun 25 Apr S&P/Case-Shiller Index at 0900ET
- Jun 25 May New Home Sales at 1000ET
- Jun 25 Tsy Cpn Purch 02/15/2036 - 05/15/2043 $1.25B-$1.75 billion
- Jun 25 UST auctions 4wk, $25Bn 52wk at 1130ET
- Jun 25 UST auctions $35Bn 2yr at 1300ET
- Jun 26 Fed Kocherlakota (non-voter) at Society for Econ Dynamics in Seoul
- Jun 26 1Q-13 GDP (3rd rev) at 0830ET
- Jun 26 Tsy Cpn Purch 08/15/2020 - 05/15/2023 $2.75B-$3.50 billion
- Jun 26 UST auctions $35Bn 5yr at 1300ET
Ostatnio zmieniony 24 cze 2013, 08:46 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 2 razy.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
molmomas pisze:taaaak, a ten oto, który mieć rację będzie na piedestał powędruje mega Anal-itykiem nazwany...
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Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
molmomas pisze:Panie Cugan, ja się nie upieram, bo nigdy nie gram przeciwko rynkowi.
moja koncepcja wzrostów ci nie pasuje, cugana wizja spadków tez ci nie pasuje. Wiesz w ogóle na czym polega analizowanie??!!
Została ci jeszcze konsolidacja o zasięgu 0.1 pipsa,rozumiem ze wchodzisz w to
Kiedy w końcu jedziesz na kolonię?
