Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

USD/JPY (14.05.2013)

H1

cena zbliza sie do historcznego sczytu z sesji azjatyckiej 102,151 z dnia 13.05.2013

czy cena pokona szczyt i pojdzie dalej...? (na poziom 103,49)

czy cena odbije sie od szczytu i poleci w dol..?

obecna cena to 102.018

pozycje u mnie na pare LLL

zapraszam do wyrazania przemyslen..

[andy11]

OPCJE (15.05.2013)


EUR / USD 1,2920, 1,2970, 1,3000, 1,3050, 1,3150, 1,3200

USD / JPY: 100.00, 100.95, 101.00, 102.00, (102.50 L)

EUR / JPY: 132,10

GBP / USD: 1,5250, 1,5300

AUD / USD: 0,9900, 0,9950

[andy11]

DANE (15.05.2013)


09:15 Producent CHF i ceny importu (MoM) (APR)-0,2% 0,0%
09:15 Producent CHF i cen importowych (r) (APR)-0,3% -0,3%

10:00 EUR Włoski Produkt Krajowy Brutto sa i wda (r) (1 kw. P)-2,3% -2,8%
10:00 EUR Włoski Produkt Krajowy Brutto sa i wda (QoQ) (1 kw. P)-0,4% -0,9%

10:30 GBP Bezrobotny Change Należności (APR)-3.0K -7.0K

10:30 GBP Średnie tygodniowe zarobki (3M/YoY) (Mar)0,7% 0,8%
10:30 GBP Powód Oceń Count (APR) 4,6% 4,6%
10:30 GBP Zmiana zatrudnienia (3M/3M) (Mar)-20K -2K
10:30 GBP Stopa bezrobocia ILO (3M) (Mar)7,9% 7,9%
10:30 GBP tygodniowe zarobki exBonus (3M/YoY) (Mar)0,8% 1,0%

11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Produkt Krajowy Brutto sa (r) (1 kw.)-0,9% -0,9%

11:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (maj)20
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Produkt Krajowy Brutto sa (QoQ) (1Q)-0,1% -0,6%

11:30 GBP raporcie Bank of England o inflacji

13:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (maj 10)7,0%

14:30 Indeks cen producentów USD Food Ex & Energy (r) (APR)1,7% 1,7%
14:30 USD Inflacja PPI (r) (APR)0,8% 1,1%
14:30 Przesyłki produkcyjne (CAD MoM) (Mar)0,5% 2,6%
14:30 USD Imperium Produkcja (MAY)4 3.05
14:30 Indeks cen producentów USD Food Ex & Energy (MoM) (APR)0,1% 0,2%
14:30 Producent USD Indeks cen (MoM) (APR)-0,6% -0,6%

15:00 CAD SprzedaŜ domów (MoM) (APR)2,40%
15:00 USD netto Długoterminowe Napływ (MAR)- $ 17.8B
15:00 USD Razem przepływy netto TIC (MAR)$ 53.6B

15:15 USD Produkcja przemysłowa (APR)-0,1% 0,4%
15:15 USD Manufacturing (SIC) Produkcja (APR)0,0% -0,1%
15:15 Wykorzystania mocy USD (APR)78.3% 78,5%

16:00 USD NAHB Indeks rynku nieruchomości (maj)43. 42.

16:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Inventory Crude (maj 10)-652K
16:30 USD DOE USA Zapasy ropy naftowej (maj 10)230K
16:30 USD DOE Inventory destylatu US (maj 10) 1812K
16:30 USD DOE zapasy benzyny w USA (maj 10) -910K

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (15.05.2013)



EUR/USD:
Bids 1.2880/90 (55 wk MA 1.2882) with possible sell stops below through 1.2875. Some possible tech supp below at 1.2862 (76.4% of 1.2745-1.3242) ahead of bids 1.2850/60.
Offers 1.2930/50 and 1.2980/00, some buy stops above ahead of offers 1.3020/30

GBP/USD:
Bids 1.5195/05 (Apr 26 low 1.5196), likely sell stops through 1.5190 ahead of some bids 1.5150/60, 1.5125/35 (61.8% of 1.4832-1.5607) and 1.5100/10. Likely sell stops below. Tech res 1.5245/60 (55/50 day MA 1.5245/1.5261),
offers 1.5290/00 and 1.5320/30

EUR/GBP:
Bids 0.8475/80 tech supp 0.8458 (tenkan line) and 0.8430/35 possible sell stops just below ahead of bids 0.8400/10, sell stops below.
Offers 0.8500/10, possible buy stops above, tech res 0.8530/40 (55 day MA 0.8531, Apr 24 hi 0.8538) ahead of cloud base 0.8544 and tech res 0.8565/70 (Apr 23 high 0.8569)

USD/JPY:
Bids 102.00/10(importers), sell stops through 101.90 ahead of further bids 101.70/80 and 101.30.40.
Offers from 102.40 ahead of 102.50 (barrier), with buy stops above, but further offers(exporters) up above from 102.75 up to a barrier at 103.00.

EUR/JPY:
(Pivot 132.04- 50% of 169.98-94.09). Offers/tech res 132.30/40 and 132.70/80 (Tues hi 132.77) likely buy stops above ahead of tech res towards 133.55/65 (Jan14 2010 highs 133.64).
Bids 131.50/60 (Tues low 131.53) and 131.00/10, sell stops below both, ahead of bids 130.50/60

AUD/USD:
Bids 0.9860/70 (sovereigns, trendline support 0.9865, 200 wk MA 0.9871), possible barrier below at 0.9850., ahead of tech supp 0.9828 (76.4% of 0.9581-1.0626)
Offers 0.9905/15, possible buy stops just above ahead of offers 0.9950/70 and larger up at 0.9980/00

[andy11]

BOE inflation report: GDP to strengthen a little in 2013 (15.05.2013)

-GDP to accelerate to 0.5% Q2 2013
-Inflation to peak at 3.1% Q3 2013
-Sees GDP rising to 1.7% in Q2 2014, 2.2% Q2 2015
-CPI to remain above 2% for much of next to years
-Forecasts assume financial crisis impact slowly fading

Presser
-New BOE forecasts are a welcome change
-sees stronger growth lower CPI than 3 months ago
-Officials must press on to lower employment
-Sees significant margin of spare capacity
-UK economy faces challenge of substantial rebalancing
-A recovery is in sight for the UK economy
-Markets expect bank rate to remain below 1% for a number of years
-Demand and effective supply to pick up gradually
-Monetary policy alone cannot solve all our problems

Merv signs off by handing over “to a younger generation after 82 inflation press conferences”.

Into the Q & A

-UK hasn’t had the housing bust other countries have seen so housing market has not recovered as much as expected
-Important that we do not end up with permanent tax payer guarantees for mortgages.
-Domestically the UK has done what’s been needed to come through the crisis. These problems still need to be addressed abroad.
-Nothing more important than price stability as a mandate for the BOE.
-Transparency more important than discretion over inflation policy
-Knows that real interest rates must go back to healthy levels. but must be steered correctl. May cause asset price falls.
-Pushing up rates too quickly will set back economy.
-At least 1% of inflation down to uncontrollable effects (fuel etc).
-Tells Slovenia journo they are more than welcome to join the Sterling area
-BOE does not diversify holdings of foreign gov bonds. Small fx reserves in mainly US, German and Japanese bonds
-North sea oil production rundowns accounted for large part of fall in output and GDP last year. Should stabilise over next couple of years. Will improve UK trade balance and GDP.

-On negative rate talk at the ECB thinks financial system more capable of coping with it than before. Is an instrument that is on the MPC table but so far chosen not to implement it.

czytaj caly raport: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicat ... r1302.aspx

[andy11]

Co kupuja inwestorzy japonscy...





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zielony- amerykanskie obligacje skarbowe

czerwony - francuskie obligacje skarbowe

niebieski - australijskie obligacje skarbowe

[andy11]

Nocne Dane (16.05.2013)


00:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR)53.4

01:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P)2.7% 0.2%
01:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)0.7% 0.0%
01:50 JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)0.5% -0.3%

01:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)¥267.0B
01:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)-¥26.2B
01:50 JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q P)-0.9% -0.7%
01:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)¥309.9B
01:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10)¥28.0B

03:30 AUD RBA FX Transactions "Other" (APR)71M
03:30 AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (APR)577M

05:30 AUD RBA FX Transactions "Government" (APR)

06:00 JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)48.4%

06:30 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F)-7.3%
06:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR F)0.7%
06:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR F)0.2%

[andy11]

OPCJE (16.05.2013)



EUR / USD 1,2900 (L), 0,2920, 1,2940, 1,2950 (L), 1,2990, 1,3000, 1,3050, 1,3125

USD / JPY: 100,00, 100,50, 101,00, 102,00, 102,50, 102,70, 104,00

EUR / CHF: 1,2250, 1,2375, 1,2300

USD / CHF: 0,9500

AUD / JPY: 100,95

AUD / USD: 0,9850, 0,9900, 1,0000

EIR / PLN: 1,3000

NZD / USD: 0,8300

[andy11]

DANE (16.05.2013)


09:45 Plosser USD FED mówi w sprawie polityki pieniężnej w Mediolanie

11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (r) (APR F)1,0% 1,0%
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Wskaźnik cen konsumpcyjnych (r) (APR F)1,2% 1,2%


11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Wskaźnik cen konsumpcyjnych (MoM) (APR)-0,1% 1,2%
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Bilans handlowy (euro) (Mar)10.4B
11:00 EUR Strefa Euro Bilans handlu zagranicznego sa (euro) (Mar)11.5B 12.0B

13:45 Rosengren USD FED mówi w Mediolanie

14:30 USD Inflacja CPI Food Ex & Energy (r) (APR)1,8% 1,9%
14:30 USD Inflacja CPI (r) (APR)1,3% 1,5%

14:30 USD Pozwolenia na budowę (MoM) (APR) 3,8% -3,4%
14:30 USD Inflacja CPI Food Ex & Energy (MoM) (APR)0,2% 0,1%
14:30 USD Indeks cen konsumpcyjnych (MoM) (APR)-0,3% -0,2%
14:30 USD Rozpoczęte budowy domów (MoM) (APR)-6,4% 7,0%
14:30 USD nowych bezrobotnych (maj 11) 330K 323K
14:30 CAD międzynarodowe transakcje papierami wartościowymi (dolar kanadyjski) (Mar)5.00B -6.31B
14:30 USD Pozwolenia na budowę (APR)941K 907K
14:30 USD Inflacja CPI bazowa CPI sa (APR)233,096 232,758
14:30 USD Inflacja CPI nsa (APR)232,7 232,773
14:30 USD Roszczenia kontynuowana (maj 4)3000K 3005K
14:30 USD Housing Starts (APR)970K 1036K

15:00 USD Fed Fisher mówi w Konferencji Przemysłu nabe w Houston

16:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAJ)2.0 1.3

16:30 USD EIA Gas Natural Change Storage (maj 10)94 88

21:05 USD Fed Williams mówi w sprawie polityki pieniężnej w Oregon

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (16.05.2013)



EUR/USD:
Bids 1.2845/60 (corporates) sell stops below through 1.2840 (Wed low 1.2843) ahead of more bids 1.2800/20 with more sell stops below.
Offers 1.2890/00 some buy stops above ahead of offers, 1.2930/50 and 1.2980/00

GBP/USD:
Bids 1.5195/05 sell stops below and through 1.5170 (Wed low 1.5173, also daily cloud base) ahead of bids 1.5150/60 and 1.5125/35 (61.8% of 1.4832/1.5607 at 1.5128) and 1.5100/10. Tech res/offers 1.5240/50 (55 day MA 1.5246) possible buy stops above ahead of offers 1.5265/75 and 1.5290/00.

EUR/GBP:
Bids 0.8430/35 possible sell stops just below ahead of bids 0.8400/10, sell stops below.
Offers 0.8470/75 (21 day MA 0.8473), 0.8490/00 (100 day MA 0.8494), possible buy stops above, tech res 0.8525/30 (55 day MA 0.8529)

USD/JPY:
Bids 1021.90/10 (importers), sell stops through 101.80 ahead of bids from 101.70 down to 101.50, possible sell stops mixed in through tenkan line 101..67, ahead of bids 101.30.40.
Offers from 102.40/50 and from exporters from 102.75 up to a barrier at 103.00. Buy stops above.

EUR/JPY:
(Pivot 132.04- 50% of 169.98-94.09). Offers/tech res 132.30/40 and 132.70/80 (Tues hi 132.77) likely buy stops above ahead of tech res towards 133.55/65 (Jan14, 2010 highs 133.64).
Bids 131.30/40 and 131.00/10, sell stops below both, ahead of bids 130.50/60

AUD/USD:
Bids from exporters 0.9800/20 (0.9800 barrier, Jun 8 2012 low 0.9820) with sell stops below, probable barrier at 0.9750 and the Jun 6 2012 lows of 0.9738.
Offers 0.9865/75 and larger ahead of 0.9900/15, buy stops just above through 0.9920