DayTrading: Środa 15.05.2013

[ZielonaMgielka]

dane są tragiczne a reakcja na rynkach taka delikatna

Tragiczne bylyby dane znacznie ponizej 0. 40 pips w ciagu 10 minut to nie jest tez taka delikatna reakcja. Jesli peknie 2900 to prawdopodobnie lecimy do okolic 2870/80. Kazdy pullback to dobra okazja do shortow aktualnie.

[crok.]

moze merkelowa zrozumiala, ze bez stabilizacji kilkuset pipsowej to nic nie ruszy do przodu i broni kursu - jak mam takie przeczucie.

[Nowy123]

teraz czekac jak peknie banka na obligacjach ciekwe gdzie pierwsza peknie

[kashper]

Jeden z drugim na prawdę sobie tutaj dają ostro wpi****l.
Edek stoi, jakby czekał na Funta. Ale się nie doczeka bo ich dolar blokuje.

[ZielonaMgielka]

Istotne wsparcie na EURAUD ktorego przebicie moze doprowadzic do wiekszej reakcji sprzedajacych na tej parze.
Warto czekac na H1 close.

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03419wv1d5

[Nowy123]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-1 ... e-jan-2008

[roberttheus]

ja juz siedzę od ponad tygodnia w sce i było by to dla mnie zbawieniem jeśli by odwrócili trend i spadli przynajmniej do 1.27 na eur aud

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: The string of eurozone growth data continues at 0600GMT, with the
release of the German Q1 flash GDP data. French data reelased earlier was
broadly in linbe with expectations, down 0.2% q/q, down 0.4% y/y. German data is
seen 0.3% higher on the quarter, higher by 0.2% annually. Italian Q1 GDP is set
for release at 0800GMT. At 0900GMT, the overall EMU Q1 flash GDP numbers are set
for release. With the ECB Council ready to countenance a further cut in official
rates, these data will provide valuable input into that ongoing policy
discussion. Analysts are looking for -0.1% on quarter, down 0.9% on year.

EUROPE: One of the decisions reached at the Ecofin meeting was an increase of at
least E7.3 bn to the EU budget via an amending budget clause in order to pay
"unpaid bills," the FT reports. According to the paper, the amendment has been
demanded by the European Parliament before agreeing the new budget proposals.
Finland, Netherlands and the UK tried to block the move, the paper says.



UK: The UK calendar gets underway at 0830GMT, with the release of the April
claimant count and the March ILO employment numbers. Although UK employment has
held up well over the past year, there have been signs that the jobs market is
starting to slow down with claimant count unemployment falling only gradually
over recent months. At 0930GMT, the Bank of England's May Inflation Report is
set for release. The report will be the last such report published under current
Governor Mervyn King regime. Analysts expect the forecasts in next week's report
to show inflation still lingering above the Bank's 2% target over the coming two
years as they did in February. But the Report could also mark one of the rare
occasions when the MPC doesn't raise its near-term forecast. In fact, the
near-term inflation forecast could even be lowered, creating an environment more
favourable to further action by the BOE later this year when Mark Carney takes
over the helm at the bank. The release will be accompanied by King's last press
conference before retirement.

UK PRESS: UK clearer RBS, 84% owned by the taxpayer, said Tuesday it will likely
close more branches and go ahead with further job losses, the Guardian says.

UK PRESS: UK household wealth is currently at levels last seen in 2005, the
Telegraph reports.

UK PRESS: The Times says the Treasury are considering a plan to offer shares in
RBS to the public without any "upfront" payments. The paper says between 50 and
70% of shares could be offered to the public.



US/CANADA:The US calendar starts at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage Index
for the May 17 week.
Further data at 1230GMT sees the release of the April Producer Price Index and
the May NY Fed Empire State Survey.
The Producer Price Index is expected to fall 0.6% in April after declining in
March on a retracement of energy prices. Core PPI is forecast to rise 0.1%.
Energy prices are expected to decline further in April after sharp movements in
the previous two months, while a sharp drop in farm prices received suggests
that food prices declined in April.
The NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index is forecast to hold virtually steady
at a reading of 3.1 in May after the April decline.
Canadian data released at 1230GMT includes the March manufacturing survey,
followed by the April CREA existing home sales numbers.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde will give a speech on growth and poverty
reduction to the Bretton Woods Committee in W'ton, starting at 1310GMT.
At 1315GMT, the US Apr industrial production and capacity utilisation numbers
will be released.
Industrial production is expected to fall 0.2% in April.Factory payrolls were
flat in the month, while auto production jobs rose by 2,000. The factory
workweek was shorter at 40.7 hours, down from 40.8 hours in March. The ISM
production index rose to 53.5 in April from 52.2 in March. Capacity utilization
is forecast to decline slightly to 78.3%
The May NAHB Index, along with the first quarter E-Commerce numbers, will be
released at 1400GMT. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks numbers for the May 10 week will
cross the wires at 1430GMT.
Back at the Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, US Treasury Under Secretary
Int'l Affairs Lael Brainard will give a speech at 1615GMT.
At 1830GMT, US Federal Reserve Director of Banking Supervision and Regulation
Michael Gibson testifies to Senate Banking Cttee on cross-border resolution.



EURO SUMMARY: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.2927 having touched an extended low of
$1.2912 late session before edging back into the close. This recovery continued
into Asia, the rate edging on to $1.2941 before stalling as hedge fund supply
countered the early move and eased rate back to $1.2921. Rate recovered to
settle between $1.2930/40 through to the European open. Focus this morning will
be on EZ GDP data releases, France numbers due at 0530GMT followed by Germany at
0600GMT and EZ at 0900GMT (median -0.1% Q/Q). Asian traders report Chinese
demand in place below $1.2920, stronger between $1.2910/00, and suggested to be
linked to barrier protection ahead of $1.2900. A break below to expose next
support into $1.2880. Resistance $1.2950-75. Attention into the afternoon will
turn to US PPI and Empire State data at 1230GMT, TICS at 1300GMT ahead of
IP/Cap.Ut. at 1315GMT.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3025/35 Medium offers
$1.3000/10 Medium offers
$1.3001-04 Tech 200-dma - 55-dma/$1.3002 40-dma
$1.2950-75 Medium offers
$1.2943 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2937 Daily cloud base (closed below Tuesday)
$1.2910 ***Current mkt rate 0622GMT Wednesday
$1.2899 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.2921 (NY $1.2908)
$1.2880/75 Medium demand
$1.2863 Tech 76.4% $1.2745-1.3243
$1.2860/50 Medium demand
$1.2845 Minor demand/Stops



STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Tuesday at session lows of $1.5208, the
rate having broken through its 50% retrace of the move up from 2013 lows of
$1.4832 to $1.5607 at $1.5220. Rate recovered in early Asia, moving up in tandem
with euro-dollar, to $1.5237 before momentum faded. The rate eased to $1.5218,
Asian traders noting that a seller in the $1.5225 area was same name that was a
noted seller Tuesday around $1.5325/30. Rate then settled between $1.5225/35
into Europe. Euro-sterling trade through Asia was contained within stg0.8490/98,
after rate had seen extended highs in Ny of stg0.8517. Resistance in the cross
remains at stg0.8517/22. Early Europe release of slightly lower than forecast Q1
France GDP data sees rate pressing on the Asian base in Europe. Bids seen into
stg0.8480. Cable demand seen from Tuesday's low at $1.5208 through to recent
lows at $1.5197 (Apr23), a break of $1.5190 to open a deeper move toward
$1.5160/50. Resistance remains into $1.5240 ($1.5237 Asia high, $1.5238 50%
$1.5268-08), with further resistance noted into $1.5250/55 ahead of $1.5270. UK
employment data at 0830GMT, followed at 0930GMT by the BOE's Quarterly Inflation
Report.


YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y102.32 after rate had been driven to
extended highs of Y102.40 into the close. Rate came under early pressure into
Asia, sales pressing the rate back to Y102.17 before Goto-bi day linked importer
demand lifted it back to Y102.32. This recovery ran into decent exporter sell
interest which took rate through the earlier pullback low and on to Y102.05
before fresh demand cushioned the move ahead of the figure. Rate then settled
between Y102.10/30 through the balance of the session. Asian traders have
reported decent sized offers in place between Y102.40/45 and said to be linked
to protection of the Y102.50 barrier. Importer demand seen into Y102.00, stops
below Y101.90 but if triggered expected to encounter further importer demand
interest which is said to be placed all the way down to Y101.00.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher again Wednesday, with
the Nikkei 225 ending at a fresh record 5-year high. The Nikkei 225 was higher
by 337.61 points, or 2.29%, at 15096.03. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX
was higher by 20.95 points at 1251.75. Market breadth indicators saw 162 issues
higher, 57 lower and 6 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 23.943 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2920, $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3150
* Dollar-yen; Y101.00, Y102.00, Y102.50
* Euro-yen; Y132.10
* Cable; $1.5250, $1.5300
* Aussie; $0.9900, $0.9950


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Germany comes to the sovereign bond market Wednesday with
launch of a new 2-year benchmark 0.00% June 2015 Schatz issue for up E5.0bln.
Also possible is book opening of Italy's new 30-year benchmark BTP. Overall,
sovereign issuance in the eurozone this week is estimated around E30.7bln after
Spain launched a new 10-year syndicated bond on Tuesday for E7.0bln. This
compares to E14.89bln total supply issued last week. As a recap, Italy kicked
off supply on Monday, with tap of its 3-year benchmark 2.25% 2016 BTP for
E3.5bln, off-the-run 4.50% 2026 BTP for E1.5bln and new floater Nov 2018 CCTeu
for E3.0bln. Looking ahead, France taps its 2-year benchmark 0.25% 2015 OAT,
3.75% 2017 OAT and 5-year benchmark 1.00% 2018 OAT issues on Thursday for
between E7.0bln-E8.0bln along with linker issues -- 0.25% 2018 OATei, 1.30% 2019
OATi, 0.25% 2024 OATei for between E800mln-E1.2bln. In terms of reinvestment
flows, there are no redemptions due this week, with moderate coupon payments
from Italy E0.435bln and Belgium E0.01bln - leaves net cash flow negative to the
tune of E30.3bln vs -E14.8bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues,
please see eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Italy announced late Tuesday it plans a new syndicated
30-year BTP bond in the near future, subject to market conditions. The
announcement comes as no surprise as the Tesoro has already indicated that it is
ready to launch a new 30-year bond as soon as possible, according to Italian
debt chief Maria Cannata who told MNI in March. Cannata also said Italy is
planning to launch a new 10-year linker bond later year. Possible sovereign
syndicated deals still in the pipeline also include Belgium and Spain. Belgium
has in the past launched three new benchmark bonds every year since 2008 and so
far only sold two syndicated deals -- 5-/10-year benchmark OLO issues this year.
Possible candidates include 15 or 30-year OLO issues, as existing benchmark have
outstanding sizes of E16.639bln and E12.373bln, respectively. In addition to
Tuesday's new 10-year syndicated deal, Spain is also likely to issue a new
15-year benchmark bond issue by syndication -- if market conditions are stable
according to Ignacio Fernandez-Palomero Morales, Spain's deputy head of the
Treasury and head of funding and debt management who told MNI in March.

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Portugal comes to the Eurozone sovereign T-bill market
Wednesday, with plans to issue new 6-month Nov 22 T-bill and re-open 12-month
May 23, 2014 T-bill for between E1.5-E1.75bln. To recap auctions so far this
week, on Monday, Germany sold E3.82bln 6-month bubill at average yield 0.0013%.
In the afternoon France sold E4.195bln 3-month BTF at average yield 0.005%,
E1.995bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.014% and E1.795bln 12-month BTF at
average yield 0.033%. On Tuesday Spain sold E1.013bln 6-month Letra at average
yield 0.492% and E3.034bln 12-month Letra at average yield 0.994%. Greece sold
E1.3bln 13-week T-bill at average yield 4.02%. Belgium sold E404mln 3-month TC
at average yield of -0.001% and E1.555bln 12-month TC at average yield 0.056%.
Finally Slovenia sold E19.75mln 3-month T-bill at average price 99.875 and
E34.95mln 6-month T-bill at average price 99.247. Still to come on Thursday
Ireland plans to issue new 3-month Aug 19 for E500mln.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur sells a new 2-year benchmark
0.00% June 2015 Schatz issue Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. Grey market is
implying the issue trades at 0.032% mid-yield or a roll of +1bps area versus the
0.25% Mar 2015 Schatz issue. Demand is seen underpinned by speculation of
another ECB Refi cut in coming months and increased chances of negative deposit
rates. In addition, historic results have also been solid. At the last auction
of the 0.25% Mar 2015 Schatz on Apr 10, E4.22bln was alloted at an average yield
0.02% and bid-to-cover ratio 2.2 times, with Buba retaining 15.6% of the sale.
Prior to this, it was topped up on Mar 13 and E4.315bln was alloted an average
yield 0.06%, bid-to-cover ratio of 1.7 times, with the Buba retaining 13.7% of
the sale. At the inaugural auction on Feb 13, E4.301bln was alloted at an
average yield of 0.21% and then covered 1.77 times, with the Buba retaining
13.98% of the sale. The average cover ratio of the last 5-auctions is 1.814
times. This issue is due to be re-opened again on June 12 and then again in July
for E5.0bln each auction before a new Sep Schatz issue is launched in August for
up to E5.0bln. Auction results due shortly after bidding closes at 0930GMT.

PORTUGAL T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Portugal's debt agency, Instituto de Gestao da
Credito Publico (IGCP) plan to issue new 6-month Nov 22, 2013 T-bill and re-open
12-month May 23, 2014 T-bill, for indicative amount of E1.5-E1.75bln Wednesday.
At Monday's Eurogroup meeting the EMU finance Ministers praised Portugal for
pluggin the E5.3bln budget gap and said the country had satisfied the conditions
needed to unblock a E2.1bln aid payment. This followed a successful new 10-year
benchmark syndication last week, were E3.0bln was raised at average yield
5.669%. The recent good news have pushed Portugal T-bill yields lower and is
likely to lead to strong demand at the auction. For the new 6-month T-bill The
grey market is indicating a mid-yield of around 0.845% while the last 6-month
auction was back on Jan 16 and therefore not comparable. As for tap of 12-month
T-bill, mid-yield is seen at 1.265%, while at the last auction back on Apr 17,
IGCP sold E1.5bln at average yield 1.394% and covered of 2.1 times. With a
T-bill redemption of E2.398bln on May 17, net cash flow will be positive to the
tune of E648mln which is seen as underpinning demand. Auction results are due to
be announced around 0945GMT.

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few days:
- May 15/19 Greek PM Samaras travels to China
- May 15 Eurozone flash Q1 GDP data
- May 15 Germany Apr Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 15 EU President Barroso, France President Hollande meet in Brussels
- May 15 Portugal sells 6-/12-month T-bills for up to E1.75bln
- May 15 Portugal IGCP debt chief Rato speaks to parliamentary commission
- May 17 Greece Apr Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 17 Portugal T-bill redemption for E2.398bln
- May 17 Spain T-bill redemption for E5.684bln
- May 17 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.6bln
- May 20 Greek Bond redemption for E5.59bln
- May 20 Ireland T-bill redemption for E500mln
- May 21 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
- May 21 Belgium Mar Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 22 European Council Summit

US: Timeline of some upcoming key events in the US:
- May 15 Mar Tsy Intl Capital System at 0900ET
- May 15 IMF MD Lagarde at Bretton Woods Committee in Washington at 0910ET
- May 15 Tsy Cpn Purchases Aug 15 2023-Feb 15 2031 $0.75-$1.00B
- May 15 Tsy Brainard at Bretton Woods Committee in Washington at 1215ET
- May 15 Fed Director Gibson testifies to Senate Banking Committee at 1430ET
- May 16 Fed Rosengren (voter) on austerity and monpol in Milan at 0745ET
- May 16 Fed Gov Raskin on recovery at Natl Econ Club in Washington at 1230ET
- May 16 Fed Plosser (non-voter) in Milan at 0345ET
- May 16 Fed Fisher (non-voter) on monpol at NABE in Houston, TX at 0900ET
- May 16 Tsy Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-May 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- May 16 UST announces 3/6m bills, reopen 10y TIPS at 1100ET
- May 16 Fed Williams (non-voter) in Portland, OR at 1505ET
- May 16 Money Supply (M2) at 1630ET
- May 17 Outright Tsy Cpn Purch Feb 28 2018-Feb 15 2019 $4.75-$5.75b
- May 17 Fed Kocherlakota (non-voter) at UChic Booth at 1345ET

[ZielonaMgielka]

Zerohedge = ciekawy portal ale ich pesymistyczne wizje i mocno niedzwiedzi poglad na rynek doprowadzaja tylko do strat inwestorow sugerujaych sie ich analizami. Styl maja calkiem fajny

-- Dodano: 15 maja 2013, 07:26 --

ja juz siedzę od ponad tygodnia w sce i było by to dla mnie zbawieniem jeśli by odwrócili trend i spadli przynajmniej do 1.27 na eur aud

Widze ze dostajesz paralizu z powodu tak duzej pozycji
Warto sie skoncentrowac na 1.3 bo moze sie okazac mocnym wsparciem dla bykow.

[Nowy123]

BoJ's Kuroda: Rising stock prices do not present a bubble at the moment. NASTEPNY po BERNANKE tylko ze BErnanke obserwuje i juz nie mowi ze nie widzi banki