Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

AUD/USD

tak patrzac na te pare zastanawiam sie dokad cena moze pojsc....

Wykres MN - czyli miesieczny

LL swieczka z 01.10.2011 (0.9388)

HL swieczka z 01.06.2012 ( 0.9580)

laczac te dwa dolki wychodzi LT do ktorej zmierza cena ( obecnie 0,9971)

pytanie:
czy cena zatrzyma sie na LT poziom (0,9835) ..?
czy przejdzie ten poziom LT i poleci nizej czyli na swieczke HL (0,9580)...?

chetnie poslucham waszych przemyslen...

[andy11]

AUD/USD

tak patrzac na te pare zastanawiam sie dokad cena moze pojsc....

Wykres MN - czyli miesieczny

LL swieczka z 01.10.2011 (0.9388)

HL swieczka z 01.06.2012 ( 0.9580)

laczac te dwa dolki wychodzi LT do ktorej zmierza cena ( obecnie 0,9971)

pytanie:
czy cena zatrzyma sie na LT poziom (0,9835) ..?
czy przejdzie ten poziom LT i poleci nizej czyli na swieczke HL (0,9580)...?

chetnie poslucham waszych przemyslen...

poziom ( 0,9950 ) wybroniony czyzby dla opcji...? jesli tak to do 16.00 mamy dolek wyznaczony....no chyba ze peknie to nastepny poziom do zakupow 0,9925 ....
dodam jeszcze ze dzien pivot (1,00082 ) gdzie dzisiaj cena odbila sie jak pilka ( czyli mozna sadzic ze to byl lokalny dzisiejszy szczyt (zalozmy ze swieczka LH na wykresie 1H...)

[andy11]

USD/JPY (13.05.2013)

szczyt na sesji azjatckiej (102.151)
opcje na poziomie (102,25) oraz powyzej..
cena spadla do strefy popytu (101,54)...
Dzienny Pivot (101,805)
cena przebila LT spadkowego na H1
cena idzie w kierunku szczytu z sesji azjatyckiej ale
przedtem bedzie miala do pokonania:

a) LH (101,810) oraz Dzienny Pivot (101,805)

b) LH (101,962)

c)szczyt sesji azjatyckiej (102,151)

d)opcje (102,25) oraz powyzej

G7 dalo przyzwolenie Japonii na druk kasiorki...

[andy11]

Morgan Stanley: This is the top in USD/JPY

Analysts at Morgan Stanley are making a courageous call on USD/JPY, recommending shorts with a target of 94.00/92.00. They recommended the trade from 101 (spot is now at nearly 102) with a stop at 103.00.

“We believe the JPY weakening trend has overshot many of the flow indicators, suggesting there is now an increasing risk of a correction. Indeed, our analysis of portfolio flow data highlights that Japanese investors have not increased overseas allocation so far, but have in fact repatriated funds from abroad, which risks triggering a JPY corrective rebound,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.

A week ago, I talked about a Morgan Stanley trade on AUD/CAD that turned out to be correct. The difference is that the AUD/CAD trade went with the momentum of the market while this one goes dead against it.

I give them full credit for courage but picking a top in a trend like USD/JPY and hoping for a 1000 pip correction is a long-shot — one so long it doesn’t even justify the 10-1 risk/reward ratio from these levels.

[andy11]

DANE (14.05.2013)


08:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR F) 1.1% 1.1%
08:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F)1.2% 1.2%


08:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR F)-0.5% -0.5%
08:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR F)-0.5% -0.5%
08:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P)-21.5%
08:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (APR)-0.2%
08:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (APR)0.3%
08:00 USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Stockholm

10:30 EUR Italian General Government Debt (MAR)2017.6B

11:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)40 36.3

11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)-2.1% -3.1%
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)24.9
11:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAY)9.8 9.2
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR)0.5% 0.4%

11:30 Australian Federal Budget

13:30 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR)89.8 89.5

14:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)-0.5% -0.5%
14:30 USD Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)-2.7%

15:00 CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (APR)0.4%
15:00 CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (APR)2.6%
15:00 CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (APR)153.31

17:00 USD New York Fed Releases Quarterly Household Debt Report

[andy11]

OPCJE (14.05.2013)


EUR/USD: 1.2950, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3050

USD/JPY: 99.00, 100.35(L), 101.00, 101.50, 102.00

EUR/JPY: 131.00, 132.00

GBP/USD: 1.5350, 1.5375

AUD/USD: 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0200(L)

AUD/NZD: 1.1980

[andy11]

Rentownosc Japonskich obligacji nadal wzrasta

- 5 latki sa na najwyzszym poziomie od Marca 2012

- 10 latki sa na najwyzszym poziomie od Stycznia 2011

[andy11]

German CPI april final: m/m -0.5% vs -0.5% exp

-0.5% prev

y/y +1.2 % vs +1.2% exp +1.2% prev

HICP m/m -0.5 % vs -0.5% exp -0.5% prev y/y + 1.1 % vs +1.1% exp +1.1% prev

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (14.05.2013)



EUR/USD:
Bids 1.2965/75, larger at 1.2935/45 (Fri low 1.2935, also 61.8% 1.2745-1.3242, cloud base 1.2936). Likely sell stops just below ahead of bids 1.2900/20 sell stops below and through 1.2880
Offers 1.3020/30 ( Asia high 1.3026) possible buy stops just above ahead of more offers 1.3040/50 buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.3064 (21 day MA) and offers 1.3090/10.

GBP/USD:
Offers initially at 1.5320/30, 1.5360/70 larger up at 1.5400/10 (21 day MA 1.5405) and 1.5430/40 (tenkan line 1.5439).
Bids 1.5300/10 and 1.5280/90, likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp 1.5245/60 (55/50 day MA 1.52464/1.5259), sell stops below. Further bids/tech supp 1.5200/10

EUR/GBP:
Bids 0.0.8475/80 and 8430/35 possible sell stops just below ahead of bids 0.8400/10, sell stops below and larger through 0.8390 (Jan 24 low 0.8391) ahead of supp 0.8365/70 (Jan 22 lows, 61.8% of year’s rise 0.8365).
Offers 0.8500/10, tech res 0.8530/40 (55 day MA 0.8534, Apr 24 hi 0.8538) ahead of cloud base 0.8544 and tech res 0.8565/70 (Apr 23 high 0.8569)

USD/JPY:
Bids 101.30/40 sell stops through 101.25 ahead of bids 101.00/10 sell stops below, but bids as well layered down to 100.50.
Offers 101.75/85 (exporters) and 102.00/20 (ACB’s) larger ahead of 102.50 (barrier), with buy stops above, but likely barrier as well at 103.00.

EUR/JPY:
Pivot 132.04- 50% of 169.98-94.09. Offers/tech res 132.30/40 (132.40 Asian high on Mon) likely buy stops above. Next tech res towards 133.55/65 (Jan14 2010 highs 133.64).
Bids 131.50/60 and 131.00/10, sell stops below both, ahead of bids 130.50/60

AUD/USD:
Bids 0.9965/75 (corporates) and 0.9940/50 sell stops below ahead of tech supp 0.9922 (Jun14 low) and bids 0.9900/10 (barrier 0.9900), sell stops below.
Offers 1.0010/20 (real money, funds) some buy stops above ahead of offers1.0080/00, likely buy stops above.

[andy11]

Aussie ‘ought to drop’ to US60¢: FX Concepts’ Taylor

FX Concepts’ John Taylor, founder of the world’s largest currency hedge fund, is betting on a fall in the Australian dollar saying “it ought to come down to US60¢”.