Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

Opcje (08.05.2013)

EUR/USD: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3075, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3150, 1.3170, 1.3220

USD/JPY: 98.00, 98.40, 98.50, 98.55, 98.60, 98.75, 98.95, 99.00, 99.25, 100.00

EUR/JPY: 128.25, 130.00

AIUD/JPY: 100.00

AUD/USD: 1.0150, 1.0200

AUD/NZD: 1.2050

NZD/USD: 0.8400

USD/CHF: 0.9375

[andy11]

warte zapamietania dla osob , ktore graja na parach jenowych

The biggest bull market in the world

The rally in the Japanese Nikkei 225 since Abe won the election has been remarkable — and it’s accelerating.

Since mid-November, the index is up an astonishing 67% and it tacked on another 4.3% in the past two days. In short, the market has gone parabolic.




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It shows three things:

-Money is being chased out of Japanese bonds

-The market believes Kuroda is serious

-Japanese domestic investors are flooding into stocks rather than overseas markets

The third point is the important one for now. When a market ‘goes parabolic’ there is no telling when it will stop. But like shares of Apple, it will end eventually. When it does, that will be the turning point for the yen.

If investors dump Japanese shares and go overseas, yen crosses will take flight once again. If they scramble back into bonds, it shows that the game hasn’t changed and the yen crosses could be DOA.

[andy11]

Dane (09.05.2013)

00:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q) 6.8% 6.9%
00:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)0.8% -1.0%
00:45 NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)-0.7% -1.4%
00:45 NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)67.8% 67.2%

01:50 JPY Official Reserve Assets (APR)$1254.4B

02:00 NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)6.5%

03:30 AUD Employment Change (APR)11.0K -36.1K
03:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (APR)5.6% 5.6%
03:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)2.3% 2.1%

03:30 AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR)-7.4K
03:30 CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)-2.3% -1.9%
03:30 AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR) -28.7K
03:30 AUD Participation Rate (APR)65.1% 65.1%

04:00 JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR)8.56%

07:00 JPY Leading Index (MAR P)97.7 97.6
07:00 JPY Coincident Index (MAR P)93.2 92.4

10:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report

10:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)-1.6% -2.2%
10:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)-2.0% -1.4%
10:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)0.2% 1.0%
10:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)0.3% 0.8%

13:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (MAY)375B 375B
13:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (MAY 9)0.50% 0.50%

14:00 USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Financial Stability in New York

14:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAR)2.1% 2.1%
14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 4)335K 324K
14:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAR)0.1% 0.2%
14:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 27)3018K 3019K

16:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR)0.10%

16:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MAR)0.4% -0.3%
16:00 USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR)0.1% 1.7%
16:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 3)43

19:15 USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York

[andy11]

How George Soros Made $60 million in just over 18 hours

Reports this morning have George Soros making a cool $60 million on his Australian dollar short in less than two days.

I’ve tried to piece together the various snippets I’ve heard.

He started the short building from just above 1.0300 on Monday and added around 1.0280.




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A short time later the rumours started.


At 0430GMT on Tuesday the RBA cut its benchmark interest rate, the first move since 2012. AUD/USD slipped from around 1.0240 to below 1.0200, and thats where Soros started scaling his purchases, from just below 1.02 to 1.0165 (and thereabouts):



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Best thing is, it appears he made 3 similar trades. With a trader in Hong Kong taking one of the orders, another in Singapore, and one more. The trades netted around $18 million on each, for a total reward of about $60 million.

OK, just a word of caution. Soros and his organisation are highly secretive. This is the scenario I’ve put together from what I’ve heard around the place and I don’t imagine I’ve got all the details correct. But it does give an idea of how he operated.

Oh, and $60 million is a nice return, but its pocket change for Soros, he’s has made over $1 billion being short yen over the past months!

[andy11]

NZD/USD

00:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q) 6.8% 6.9%
00:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)0.8% -1.0%
00:45 NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)-0.7% -1.4%
00:45 NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)67.8% 67.2%

jesli stopa bezrobocia spadnie o 0,4 na 6,4 lub wiecej nzd/usd powinno wzrosnac o jakies 30pipsow
jesli stopa bezrobocia wzrosnie o 0,4 na 7,2 lub wiecej nzd/usd powinno spasc o jakies 30pipsow

poza tym stopa bezrobocia jest podawane wczesniej pare sekund przed zmiana zatrudnienia wiec moze byc najpierw jazda w gore a zaparenasci sekund jazda w dol ( albo na odwrot)...

dodatnie odchylenie od zmiany zatrudnienia jest pozytywne dla nzd/usd (LL)
dodatnie odchylenie od liczby bezrobotnych jest negatwne dla nzd/usd (SS) - wiecej ludzi bez pracy...


moze ktos ma inne przemyslenia to chetnie poczytam...

[andy11]

NZD/USD

00:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (1Q) 6.8% 6.9%
00:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (1Q)0.8% -1.0%
00:45 NZD Employment Change (YoY) (1Q)-0.7% -1.4%
00:45 NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (1Q)67.8% 67.2%

jesli stopa bezrobocia spadnie o 0,4 na 6,4 lub wiecej nzd/usd powinno wzrosnac o jakies 30pipsow
jesli stopa bezrobocia wzrosnie o 0,4 na 7,2 lub wiecej nzd/usd powinno spasc o jakies 30pipsow

poza tym stopa bezrobocia jest podawane wczesniej pare sekund przed zmiana zatrudnienia wiec moze byc najpierw jazda w gore a zaparenasci sekund jazda w dol ( albo na odwrot)...

dodatnie odchylenie od zmiany zatrudnienia jest pozytywne dla nzd/usd (LL)
dodatnie odchylenie od liczby bezrobotnych jest negatwne dla nzd/usd (SS) - wiecej ludzi bez pracy...

moze ktos ma inne przemyslenia to chetnie poczytam...

Q1 unemployment rate 6.2% (vs. 6.8% expected, prior revised to 6.8% from 6.9%)
Q1 employment change 1.7% q/q (vs. +0.8% expected, prior revised to -0.9% from -1.0%))
Q1 employment change 0.3%% y/y (vs. -0.7% expected, prior -1.4%)
Participation rate rises to 67.8% (vs. prior of 67.2 and expected at 67.

[andy11]

Nocne Dane

03:30 AUD Employment Change (APR)11.0K -36.1K
03:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (APR)5.6% 5.6%
03:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)2.3% 2.1%
03:30 AUD Full Time Employment Change (APR)-7.4K
03:30 CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)-2.3% -1.9%
03:30 AUD Part Time Employment Change (APR) -28.7K
03:30 AUD Participation Rate (APR)65.1% 65.1%

AUD/USD

na publikacji tych danych mozna pare pipsow wyciagnac.....
jesli odchylenie stopy bezrobocia bedzie szlo w parze z odchyleniem zmiany zatrudnienia to byly by to dobre dane ...
jesli stopa bezrobocia i zmiana zatrudnienia beda inne (jedne na + a drugie na -) to bedzie amplituda wahan...

wzrost bezrobocia jest zly dla kangura... (SS)
spadek bezrobocia jesr dobry dla kangura ... (LL)

wieksze zmiany zatrudnienia sa dobre dla kangura (LL)
male zmiany zatrudnienia sa zle dla kangura (SS)

te dane sa publikowane jedne po drugich czyli cena najpierw moze spasc/wzrosnac o +- 30pipsow a nastepnie na publikacji nastepnych danych cena znowu moze spasc /wzrosnac +- 30pipsow...
oczywiscie jesli dane beda bardzo dobre (bezrobocie, zmiana zatrudnienia) to cena moze wzrosnac o paredziesiat pips....

[andy11]

OPCJE (09.05.2013)

EUR/USD: 1.3000(L), 1.3050, 1.3075, 1.3085, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3150, 1.3155, 1.3200(L), 1.3300

USD/JPY: 98.00, 98.50, 98.75, 98.80, 98.85, 99.00, 99.50, 100.00

GBP/USD: 1.5375

CAD/JPY: 99.50

AIUD/JPY: 103.50

AUD/USD: 1.0160, 1.0200, 1.0225, 1.0235, 1.0255, 1.0300

EUR/CHF: 1.2350

USD/CHF: 0.9395

EUR/NOK: 7.6200

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (09.05.2013)


EUR/USD:
Offers 1.3190/00, buy stops above ahead of offers 1.3220/30 (50% retracement of the Jan -April fall around 1.3229, 1.3230 cloud top), (Tech pivot 100 day MA 1.3155),
bids 1.3120/30, 1.3080/00 (21 day MA 1.3083), likely sell stops below through 1.3070 ahead of bids 1.3050/60 (Asian sovereigns), sell stops below.

GBP/USD:
Offers 1.5580/90 1.5600/20 (1.5606 – 50% of 2013 fall, 1.5607 May 1 high) buy stops above. Tech supp tenkan line 1.5527 and 100 day MA 1.5521 ahead of bids 1.5500/10, larger 1.5475/85 and1.5450/60 with likely sell stops below

EUR/GBP:
Bids 0.8440/50 (tenkan line 0.8449), 0.8400/10 sell stops below and larger through 0.8390 (Jan 24 low 0.8391) ahead of supp 0.8365/70 (Jan 22 lows, 61.8% of year’s rise 0.8365).
Offers 0.8470/80 (100 day MA 0.8479) ahead of tech/offers 0.8490/95 (21 day MA 0.8492)

USD/JPY:
Offers 99.00/20, small buy stops above ahead of larger offers 99.40/50 with more buy stops just above ahead of offers 99.70 up to 100.00 (barrier), very large buy stops above.
Bids 98.50/70 (importers, 21 day MA 98.52), possible sell stops below ahead tech supp (tenkan line) at 98.23 and larger bids 98.00/10 with sell stops below

EUR/JPY:
Offers 130.35/45 likely buy stops above through 130.50. Further offers tech res 130.60/70 (Apr 22 high 130.66) and 131.00/10, likely buy stops above (131.11- 2013 high).
Bids 129.60/70, 129.25/35 and 129.00/10, sell stops below through 128.90 (21 day MA 128.91) ahead of tech supp 128.70/75 (128.73 – tenkan line)

AUD/USD:
Tech res at 1.0258 (Asian high 1.0255) which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0322-1.0155 move, ahead of tenkan line at 1.0271, with buy stops above. Further offers 1.0300/20 (21 day MA 1.0306).
Bids 1.0200/10 ahead of stronger down at 1.0155/65 (sovereigns, option names) and a 1.0150 barrier. Sell stops below ahead of years lows of 1.0116

[andy11]

UK industrial production march: +0.7 % vs +0.2% exp

1.00% prev
y/y -1.4% vs -1.6% exp -2.2% prev

March UK manufacturing output 1.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m

Prior 0.8%
y/y -1.4% vs -2.0% exp. Prior -1.4%