DayTrading: Środa 8.05.2013

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: The calendar quietens down Wednesday, with limited data on either side
of the Atlantic. However, there are some speaking appearances from central
bankers and eurozone lawmakers to look out for. At 0915GMT, ECB Executive Board
Member Joerg Asmussen and EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli
Rehn are set to speak on Cyprus, at the European Parliament, in Brussels. At
0930GMT, German Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel is scheduled speak on the
role of monetary policy during the Eurozone crisis. The limited eurozone data
releases sees the German March industrial output numbers released at 1000GMT.
Analysts are looking for industrial production to fall 0.1% on month, and 3.8%
on year. At 1200GMT, the Norwegian Norges Bank interest rate decision is
expected, with the market pricing in a rough 50/50 chance of a rate cut. Back in
Europe, at 1245GMT, German Fin Min Schaeuble holds presser on new revenue
estimates, in Berlin. Then, at 1500GMT, ECB Board member Joerg Asmussen will;
sit on a panel discussing inflation at an event organized by the Bertelsmann
Foundation.

EUROPE: EU President Barroso has fuelled the flames of the UK debate on EU
membership, the Telegraph says, as he noted fiscal union for the eurozone
members would certainly lead to closer political union for all EU mmebers.

GREECE: Morgan Stanley has advised customers to buy Greek bonds, eKathimerini
reports, saying the return of confidence in the country should help push yield s
lower.

GERMAN PRESS: A majority of the European Central Bank's Governing Council could
well be in favour of the ECB buying asset-backed securities in a bid to shore up
lending in the Eurozone periphery, the German newspaper Die Welt reported
Wednesday. The newspaper reported that the ECB was not only discussing how to
revive the ABS market but is considering actively purchasing such securities:
"The bottom line: a majority appears to be in favour of buying ABS securities,"
the paper cited central banking sources as saying. ECB President Mario Draghi is
reported to be among the council members open to such a move, though there is
also vehement opposition, including from the Bundesbank. Executive Board members
Yves Mersch and Joerg Asmussen are said to be opposed, the paper said.



UK PRESS: UK PM Cameron says he cannot introduce legislation leading to a UK
referendum on EU membership, as the coalition deal with the LibDem's prevents
it, the Telegraph reports.

UK PRESS: The FT says the UK is likely attempt forming an advance guard of
"economically liberal" nations within the EU to try and "force open" the single
market in services.

UK PRESS: Its been on the calendar for a while, but the UK press notes that the
IMF arrives in London Weds for discussion with the the Treasury as in begins its
annual health check on the UK economy, The Independent says the IMF's verdict
could be important for the Chancellor, as the global austerity debate changes
direction.

UK PRESS: The Times' Shadow MPC says the BOE should stay its hand and keep
policy unchanged as the UK economy shows nascent signs of a recovery. However,
former MPC member Andrew Sentance says the BOE should look to plan the exit from
extreme easy policy, adding a small rise in rates would be a signal this process
has begun.


US: At 1430GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks data fdor the May 3 week will
be released.



EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Tuesday at $1.3078 after pulling back to
$1.3073 from earlier highs on the day of $1.3132, seen following the reaction to
stronger than forecast German factory orders data. The corrective pullback
tracked the sharp reversal lower in cable from $1.5540 to $1.5447. Early trade
in Asia was confined to a tight $1.3070/80 range before release of better than
expected China trade data provided risk with an added boost and edged rate up to
a high of $1.3098 before it settled between $1.3085/95. Following on from
Tuesday's strong German factory orders data traders will focus on today's
Germany IP release, traders noting that this number will help to fine tune Q1
GDP forecasts (first read May15). Offers seen placed into $1.3100, more from
above $1.3120, with stronger interest seen in place between $1.3130/50. Support
noted between $1.3070-50, more demand seen scattered from $1.3040 through to
$1.3010 with stops below $1.3000. Large stops mentioned below $1.2950.

EURO-DOLLAR: Now seen moving through resistance at $1.3109 (61.8%
$1.3132-1.3072) with next tech resistance seen into $1.3118 (76.4%). Offers have
been reported beginning from above $1.3120 with stronger interest noted between
$1.3130/50 (Tuesday high $1.3132).

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3180 Medium offers on approach/Stops
$1.3159 Friday May3 high (post NFP)/$1.3157 100-dma
$1.3130-50 Strong offers
$1.3120 Medium offers/$1.3118 76.4% $1.3132-1.3072
$1.3113 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3098
$1.3105 ***Current mkt rate 0629GMT Wednesday
$1.3072 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3070/50 Strong demand
$1.3040-10 Medium demand/$1.3037-33 Area of recent lows post ECB and NFP
$1.3017 Tech 55-dma
$1.3000 Strong demand/Corporate interest noted/Stops
$1.2997 Tech 40-dma (CTA's watch this line on a close basis)
$1.2994 Tech 50% $1.2745-1.3243
$1.2985/75 Strong demand/Corporate interest $1.2980-75/$1.2985 200-dma
$1.2950 Medium demand/Large stops



STERLING SUMMARY: Cable saw a sharp reversal Tuesday, the rate getting sold off
from $1.5540 to a low of $1.5448 on reported UK clearer sales. Recent failure at
$1.5607 (50% of the 2013 range of $1.6381-1.4832) then followed by lower highs
had seen rate primed for a corrective pullback, though real money demand into
the dip was seen providing fresh buoyancy. Rate closed in NY at $1.5484, easing
off to $1.5471 in early Asia before getting a risk related lift following the
release of stronger than forecast China trade data to $1.5490 before it settled
around $1.5480 ahead of the European open. Euro-sterling had been driven up to
extended recovery highs of stg0.8467, some linking stops in the cross to the
added pressure on the pound, but rate managed to close the NY session back
around stg0.8446. Rate edged back up to stg0.8460 in Asia, opening into Europe
around stg0.8458. Halifax house price data at 0700GMT provides the early
interest, the Queen opening a new session of parliament at 1030GMT with
accompanying speech. Demand remains in place between $1.5450/45, more between
$1.5430/20. Resistance $1.5490/1.5500.



YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed the NY session Tuesday around Y99.00, after rate
had recovered off lows of Y98.84. The rate came under another round of sell
pressure in pre-Tokyo trade, as market targeted stops below Y98.80, the
triggering of which provided the momentum to take rate to lows of Y98.64. Rate
recovered into Tokyo trade with large Japanese banks noted buyers off the lows,
the interest believed to be for life companies. Rate recovered through its
opening level to Y99.15 before momentum faded and it slowly drifted back to
Y98.92. Rate was hovering close to Y99.00 into Europe. Demand seen into Y98.50
with more stops below. The stop interest seen from mainly CTA accounts and seen
dotted down to Y97.80. Japanese exporters remain in place between Y99.40/50, the
'usual' option related sell interest seen into Y100.00 with stops above.
Euro-yen tracked dollar-yen moves, posting early lows at Y128.98, from an
opening level of Y129.49, before recovering to Y129.82. Rate then drifted off to
Y129.49, trading around Y129.60 into Europe.


KIWI: The NZ currency was sold broadly on RBNZ Wheeler's comments, with dealers
noting various fund names have also been jumping into the fray, selling from
$0.8390 region. Moves were also seen in aussie-kiwi, with the cross seeing a
spike above NZ$1.2100 and NZ$1.2135. Kiwi last at $0.8404, after small bounce
off $0.8369 low, dealers say market appears jittery after Wheeler's remarks, and
further sharp swings may yet emerge. Further losses may see an initial test of
the $0.8337-75 support region, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of
the $0.8164-0.8676 move, at $0.8360.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3075, $1.3100, $1.3125, $1.3150, $1.3170,
$1.3220
* Dollar-yen; Y98.00, Y98.40, Y98.50/55, Y98.60, Y98.75, Y98.95, Y99.00, Y99.25,
Y100.00
* Euro-yen; Y128.25, Y130.00
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9375
* Aussie; $1.0150, $1.0200
* Aussie-yen; Y100.00
* Kiwi; $0.8400
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.2050


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Greece comes to the Eurozone sovereign T-bill market
Wednesday, with plans to issue new 26-week Nov 8, 2013 T-bill for E1.0bln. To
recap so far this week, on Monday Netherlands sold E1.27bln 3-month DTC at
average yield -0.039% and sold E1.32bln 6-month DTC at average yield -0.018%. In
the afternoon, France sold E3.999bln 3-month BTF at average yield -0.004%,
E2.193bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.001% and E1.975bln 12-month BTF at
average yield 0.018%. On Tuesday the ESM sold E2.936bln new 3-month Aug 11 at
average yield -0.0237%. Still to come on Friday, Italy plan to issue new Flexi
Dec 19, 2013 BOT for E3.0bln and new 12-month May 14, 2014 BOT for E7.0bln.

GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management Agency
(PDMA) is planning to issue E1.0bln new 26-week Nov 8, 2013 T-bill Wednesday.
The auction comes amid renewed confidence in Greece as its finances seam to have
improved over the last month and possible privatisations in the pipeline, has
aided in the reduction in the 10-year bond yield to below 10% -- the first time
since late 2010. The PDMA will once again allocate an extra 30% of amount
auctioned, in non-comp bids and a further 30% in second day bids, to bring total
amount to be issued to E1.6bln. At the last 26-week T-bill on Apr 12, the PDMA
sold E1.3bln at average yield of 4.25% and covered 1.60 times. There will be a
E1.06ln T-bill redemptions on May 10, which is seen underpinning demand at the
auction. Results due to be announced around 0910GMT.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur sells a new 5-year benchmark
0.25% Apr 2018 Bobl issue Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. Grey market pricing is
implying the issue trades at 0.414% mid-yield, or a roll of +2.6bps
mids vs 0.5% Feb 2018 Bobl issue. Whilst this issue isn't expected to be the
cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) into the June Bobl futures contract, it will form part
of the deliverability basket. In addition, historic results have been decent for
the 5-year Bobl issue -- the old 0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl was last sold on Apr 3,
where the DFA alloted E3.288bln at an average yield of 0.33% and bid-to-cover
ratio of 1.9 with the Buba retaining 17.8% of the sale. Prior to this, it was
sold on Mar 6, where the DFA alloted E3.137bln at an average yield of 0.45%,
bid-to-cover ratio of 1.9 and Buba retained 21.6%. The average bid-to-cover
ratio of the last 5 auctions is 1.88 times. This issue is due to be re-opened
again on June 5 and also again in July and Aug for E4.0bln each size -- taking
the total size to E17.0bln before a new 5-year Oct 2018 Bobl is sold in Sep.
Auction results are due after auction bidding close at 0930GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- May 08 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- May 08 Italian Apr Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 08 German FinMin Schaeuble press conference on new revenue estimates
- May 08 German Merkel speaks at Families Conference in Schleswig-Holstein
- May 08 ECB Asmussen, EU Rehn testify at European Parliament
- May 08 European Commission hosts discussion on EMU social issues, in Helsinki
- May 09 Ascension day holiday
- May 09 Spain sells 2016-/2018-/2026 bonds for up to E4.5bln
- May 09 ECB quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters
- May 09 German FinMin Schaeuble speaks at Global Investment Conference, London
- May 10 ECB Draghi & Asmussen attend G7 in Buckinghamshire, UK
- May 10/11 G7 meeting in in Buckinghamshire, UK
- May 10/11 G8 FinMin & central bank governors meeting in the U.K
- May 10 ECB publishes 3-year LTRO repayment amount for following week
- May 10 Italy sells E7bln 12-month BOTs, E3.0bln flexible BOTs

[Nowy123]

KIWI wychodzi podwojny dolek ?? korekta jakas

[atlanticos]

KIWI wychodzi podwojny dolek ?? korekta jakas

Nowy co racja to racja...dzięki za zwróceniu uwagi bo przegapiłbym swoją ulubioną parę

[psxor]

Edek o 12 dane z Niemiec, jak będą dobre (a wszystko na to wskazuje) to lecimy na 1.3230-40, potem zjazd. Ja osobiście chociaż rzadko tak robię, będę czekał na 11:55-12:00, i będę łapał skalpa, prawdopodobnie jakąś większą eLke na 30-40 pipków.

Na Kiwi wchodzę w eLke.

Jeżeli będą gorsze dane z Niemiec, to lecimy max na 1.3000-1.3030, rynek akcji blokuje nam zjazd edzia, jak będzie większa korekta na tym rynku, to wtedy i poleci bardziej edzio.

[HunterPL]

witam, jakieś opinie na temat edka ?

[niemiaszek]

wersja poglądowa AT


08-maj-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 55-DMA Key Support At $1.3017
RES 4: $1.3218/28/43 High May 2, 50.0% of $1.3711-1.2743, High May 1
RES 3: $1.3200/02/06/07 Apr 17 high, Apr 16 high, Feb 1 res line, 100-week MA
RES 2: $1.3150/56/80 Former 38.2% $1.4940-1.2043, 100-DMA, Daily Bollinger top
RES 1: $1.3115/16/17 38.2% of $1.3711-1.2743, Apr 29, 22 highs
LATEST PRICE: $1.3091
SUP 1: $1.3017/33 55-DMA, Low May 3
SUP 2: $1.2974/75/85 23.6% $1.3711-1.2746, 200-DMA, Dly Bolli band base
SUP 3: $1.2891 55-week MA
SUP 4: $1.2839 Support line from Jul 24
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar broke below the 1-month support line while daily studies
look a little bearish, we continue to note the shooting-star reversal pattern,
another long upper-shadow was left yesterday, encouraging bears. So far, 55-DMA
has held as support, seen at $1.3017, below here support from the 200-DMA at
$1.2975. Break below the 55-DMA could threaten slide to Jul 24 support line at
$1.2839. Bulls look above the 100-DMA at $1.3156.


08-maj-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Fading From Channel Top & 50.0%, Daily Studies Slide
RES 4: $1.5689 High Feb 13
RES 3: $1.5632/49 Daily Bollinger band top, Channel top from Mar 12 low
RES 2: $1.5606 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832, High May 1
RES 1: $1.5522/28 5-DMA, 100-DMA
LATEST PRICE: $1.5479
SUP 1: $1.5447 Low May 7
SUP 2: $1.5410/12 Highs Apr 12, 11
SUP 3: $1.5398 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5319 Channel base from Mar 12
COMMENTARY: Cable declines from the 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832 and channel top,
key resistance at $1.5606 and $1.5649, respectively. Daily studies looking more
bearish and the quadruple-day high may prove to be a bearish reversal while
cable remains below the 5 and 100-DMAs, initial res at $1.5522/28. Support now
seen at $1.5447, yesterday's low, slide below threatens 21-DMA at $1.5398 and
the Mar 12 channel base is further support at $1.5319.


08-maj-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Holding Above 21-DMA, Bears Eye Jan Support Line
RES 4: Y100.19/27 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top, Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y99.90/95 Apr 22 high, Apr 11 high
RES 2: Y99.66 1.00% upper MA envelope
RES 1: Y99.45 High May 6
LATEST PRICE: Y99.00
SUP 1: Y98.21/39/59 Daily Tenkan line, 23.6% of Y92.57-99.95, 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y97.68/79 1.00% MA envelope base, Aug 2009 high
SUP 3: Y97.13/26/35 38.2% of Y92.57-99.95, Jan 23 support line, Low Apr 29
SUP 4: Y96.71/84 Mar 12 high, Lower daily Bollinger band
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen now testing initial support, seen at Y98.21/39/59, the
daily Tenkan line, 23.6% of Y92.57-99.95 and 21-DMA, break below here could see
bears test the Jan 23 support line at Y97.26. However, daily studies are a
little higher and bulls may attempt to break above the May 6 high at Y99.45,
initial resistance. Further resistance at Y99.66, the 1.00% upper MA envelope.
Above here, key resistance at Y99.95, the Apr 11 and Apr 22 double-day highs.


08-maj-2013 7:39
EURO-YEN TECHS: Holds Below Apr 11 Res Line & Above 21-DMA
RES 4: Y131.87/132.04 100-month MA, 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12
RES 3: Y131.00/12/24 dly Bollinger band top, Apr 11 high, 2.00% MA envelope top
RES 2: Y130.41/70 May 6 high, Apr 22 high
RES 1: Y129.91/98 Highs Apr 25 & May 2, Apr 11 resistance line
LATEST PRICE: Y129.55
SUP 1: Y128.70/74/92 Upper monthly Bollinger band, Tenkan line, 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y128.55/59 200-month MA, Apr 29 high
SUP 3: Y128.29 23.6% of Y119.11-131.12
SUP 4: Y127.06/21 Apr 29 low, Apr 30 low
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen holds above the 21-DMA, now part of initial support while
daily studies lend little direction. Bulls look to hold above initial support,
seen as the upper monthly Bollinger band, Tenkan line and 21-DMA at
Y128.70/74/92, respectively. Break below here would see bears attempt a slide to
the daily Bollinger band base at Y126.84, however, bulls look to hold above and
test the Apr 11 resistance line, now at Y129.98 and key initial resistance.

[Bemowo]

Hello everybody

Przepraszam za spóźnienie, ubranie robocze już włożone (piźama) i już staję przy taśmie.

edek to o czym wczoraj pisałem 4 układy pro spadkowe - już praktycznie nie aktualne. Jadziem wyżej.

Łoczywiście należy pamiętać, że świeca się nie zakończyła

[psxor]

Hello everybody

Przepraszam za spóźnienie, ubranie robocze już włożone (piźama) i już staję przy taśmie.

edek to o czym wczoraj pisałem 4 układy pro spadkowe - już praktycznie nie aktualne. Jadziem wyżej.

Na Edku na h1 masz trójkąt, o 12 są dane z Niemiec więc wtedy będzie wybicie dołem albo górą, analizy techniczne można na razie sobie wsadzić w buty.

[atlanticos]

witam, jakieś opinie na temat edka ?

na razie na edku mamy coś takiego...będzie większy ruch niewątpliwie...zobaczymy w którą stronę wybije...

-- Dodano: 08 maja 2013, 08:20 --

Hello everybody

Przepraszam za spóźnienie, ubranie robocze już włożone (piźama) i już staję przy taśmie.

to ubrany jak w jakimś obozie pracy

[psxor]

Generalnie fajną opcją od wczoraj jest łapanie ejka na 129.65 i zamkniecie pozycji na 129.45, 20 pipków, z 6-7x tak mi wpadło. Raczej to już nie aktualne, ale może może.

Jak dobra dane z Niemiec będą to możemy 131 na ejku zobaczyć przez chwilę, tam już moja eSeczka czeka