Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

DANE (01.05.2013)


08:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (APR) 0.3% 0.0%

08:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (APR)-7.5%
08:30 AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (APR)87.9

10:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR)48.5 48.3

13:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 26)0.2%

14:15 USD ADP Employment Change (APR)150K 158K

14:58 USD Markit US PMI Final (APR)52.0

16:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (APR) 50.6 51.3

16:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (MAR)0.6% 1.2%
16:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (APR)52.6 54.5

16:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (ARP 26)35K
16:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (ARP 26)1100K 947K
16:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (ARP 26)250K 97K
16:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (ARP 26)-900K -3928K

20:00 USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (MAY 1) 0.25% 0.25%
20:00 USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (MAY 1)

23:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (APR)12.00M 12.00M
23:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (APR)15.22M 15.22M

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (01.05.2013)



EUR/USD:
Offers 1.3180/00 buy stops above ahead of 100 week MA at 1.3217, and 50% retracement of the Jan -April fall around 1.3229.
Bids seen towards 1.3140/50 sell stops below and through 1.3125 ahead of bids 1.3070/90 (tenkan line 1.3070) and 1.3045/55(21 day MA 1.3049)

GBP/USD:
Bids 1.5500/10 with larger down at 1.5470/80. Likely sell stops through 1.5465 (daily cloud top 1.5467, also yesterday’s low).
Offers 1.5540/50 (Asian high 1.5547) with tech res above at the 100 day MA 1.5562, ahead of offers 1.5590/00 (1.5600 suggested barrier), buy stops above

EUR/GBP:
Bids 0.8460/65 (100 day MA 0.8462), 0.8425/30 and 8395/05 sell stops through 0.8390 (Jan 24 low 0.8391) below ahead of supp 0.8365/70 (Jan 22 lows, 61.8% of year’s rise 0.8365).
Offers 0, 8480/90 ahead of tech 0.8505/10 (tenkan line 0.8506, 21 day MA 0.8509)

USD/JPY:
Bids 96.90/10 sell stops below though 96.80 ahead of tech supp/bids 96.50/70 with possible sell stops below.
Offers 97.50/60 and 97.80/00, larger towards 98.25/35 (late Friday NY recovery high 98.33) possible buy stops through 98.45 (tenkan line)

EUR/JPY:
Offers 128.50/60 buy stops above ahead of more offers 128.80/00 (tenkan line 128.85) buy stops above through 129.00. Bids 128.00/10, 127.80/90 and 127.50/70, likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp/bids 127.15/25 (127.17 -61.8% of 125.00-130.66).

AUD/USD:
Tech res 1.0376 (21 day MA), resistance/offers 1.0390/00 (100/200 Day MA at 1.0395/98). Buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.0440/50.
Bids 1.0345/60(55 day MA 1.0347), 1.0320/30 and 1.0290/10 (tenkan line 1.0303) and 1.0270/80 with sell stops on a break of 1.0260 (Apr 26 low 1.0263)

AUD/JPY:
Bids 100.60/70, sell stops through 100.50 ahead of supp 100.30/35 (Apr 26 lows 100.32)
Offers 101.00/10, 101.50/60 (tenkan line 101.60), and 101.80/00 (21 day MA 101.79), buy stops above 102.00, ahead of more offers 102.55/65 and 102.90/00

[andy11]

16:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (APR) 50.6 51.3

rynek oczekuje 50,9 - 51,0 byly by to dane nieco nizsze niz w ubieglym miesiacu... ale ciagle powyzej 50.0 to wskazuje na ekspansje sektora przemyslowego..co moze przelozyc sie na cene eur/usd czyli umocnienie $, natomiast odczyt ponizej 50 mozna odczytac jako spadek co moze spowodowac oslabienie sie $

[andy11]

16:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (APR) 50.6 51.3

rynek oczekuje 50,9 - 51,0 byly by to dane nieco nizsze niz w ubieglym miesiacu... ale ciagle powyzej 50.0 to wskazuje na ekspansje sektora przemyslowego..co moze przelozyc sie na cene eur/usd czyli umocnienie $, natomiast odczyt ponizej 50 mozna odczytac jako spadek co moze spowodowac oslabienie sie $

US April ISM manufacturing PMI 50.7 vs 50.9 exp

Prior 51.3
New orders 52.3 from 51.4 prior
Prices paid 50.0 vs 53.0 exp. Prior 54.5
Employment 50.2 from 51.4 prior

[andy11]

Opcje (02.05.2013)

USDJPY 96.50,97.00,98.00,99.00,100.00

EURUSD 1.2950,1.3000,1.3070,1.3090,1.3100,1.3135,1.3150,1.3160,1.3200

GBPUSD 1.5380,1.5540

USDCHF 0.9255,0.9275,0.9305

AUDUSD 1.0250,1.0290,1.0360,1.0365,1.0375

NZDUSD 0.8415

EUTJPY 126.00

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (02.05.2013)



EUR/USD:
Offers 1.3180/00 buy stops above ahead of 100 week MA at 1.3217, and 50% retracement of the Jan -April fall around 1.3229 (1.3230 cloud top), and offers 1.3240/50 in front of the barrier (1.3250). Buy stop above.
Bids seen towards 1.3140/50 (1.3150 50% of 1.3055/1.3243) sell stops below and through 1.3130 ahead of bids1.3095/10 (tenkan line 1.3098) and 1.3060/70 (21 day MA 1.3064)

GBP/USD:
Bids 1.5525/35 and 1.5500/10 with larger down at 1.5470/80. Likely sell stops through 1.5465 (Tues low) ahead of tech supp cloud top 1.5456.
Tech pivot 100 day MA 1.5556, ahead of offers 1.5600/10 (1.5606 – 50% of 2013 fall) buy stops above with little res ahead of 1.5680/90 (1.5690 Feb 13 high).

EUR/GBP:
Pivot 0.8465 (100 day MA), bids 0.8425/30 and 8395/05 sell stops through 0.8390 (Jan 24 low 0.8391) below ahead of supp 0.8365/70 (Jan 22 lows, 61.8% of year’s rise 0.8365).
Offers 0.8490/00 (tenkan line 0.8495), possible buy stops through 0.8510 (21 day MA)

USD/JPY:
Bids 96.90/10 sell stops below though 96.80 ahead of tech supp/bids 96.50/70 with sell stops below.
Offers 97.50/70 and 97.90/00, larger towards 98.35/45 (221 day MA 98.34, tenkan line 98.45), buy stops through 98.50.

EUR/JPY:
Offers 128.35/45 buy stops above ahead of larger offers 128.80/00 (tenkan line 128.85) buy stops above through 129.00. Bids 127.80/90 likely sell stops below ahead of bids 127.50/70, ahead of tech supp/stronger bids 127.15/25 (127.17 -61.8% of 125.00-130.66).

AUD/USD:
Bids 1.0220/30 (1.0226 – 76.4% of 1.0116-1.0583 rally, 1.0221 Apr 23 low) and 1.0200/10 (March 11 low 1.0202), with sell stops below and larger through 1.0185, ahead of March 2013 lows of 1.0116.
Offers 1.0260/80, likely buy stops up through the Asian highs (1.0285) ahead of offers 1.0300/10 (tenkan line 1.0303)

AUD/JPY:
Bids/tech support 98.90.00/10 (55 day MA 99.04), sell stops likely below (98.98.89 76.4% of March –April rally).
Offers 99.90/00 and 100.20/30

[andy11]

DANE (02.05.2013)

13:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (APR)30.0%
13:30 USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (MAY)50.3

13:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAY 2)0.50% 0.75%
13:45 EUR European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate (MAY 2)0.0% 0.0%

14:30 EUR ECB's Draghi Holds Press Conference after Rate Decision (May)

14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (ARP 26)345K 339K
14:30 USD Trade Balance (MAR)-$42.3B -$43.0B
14:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (MAR)-0.70B -1.02B
14:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 20)3030K 3000K
14:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity (1Q P)1.0% -1.9%
14:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (1Q P)0.7% 4.6%

15:45 USD ISM New York (APR)51.2

16:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (ARP 26)29.0 30.0

[andy11]

AUD/USD (II scenariusze)


a) wzrost - (powyzej 1,05) kiedy:
- wskazniki w Chinach poprawia sie, ceny surowcow wzrosna
- dane z Australii ( dalsze ciecia RBA)

b) spadek - (ponizej 1.01) kiedy:
- wskazniki w Chinach beda oslabiac sie, ceny surowcow spadna
- dane z Australii (kolejne obnizki stop% )

(obecnie cena 1,02291 2 Maja 2013 godz 11.10)

chetnie poslucham waszych opinii...

[andy11]

USD/JPY



Bids - 97,00, 96,80, 96,50 , 96.35,96.25,96.00

Offers - 97,35, 97.50,97.70, 97.80,98.00 , 98.20

OPCJE - USDJPY 96.50,97.00,98.00,99.00,100.00

[andy11]

EUR/USD II scenariusze

dzisiaj o 13.45 posiedzenie EBC o stopach %
Pan Rynek spodziewa sie ciecia stop % o 25pb ale czy to
nie jest juz w cenie...?
brak obnizki stop % Pan Rynek moze przyjac pozytywnie ale
ten ruch bedzie krotkotrwaly (jesli bedzie ) poniewaz
o 14.30 jest konferencja Pana Draghi..i to od tego
co pierdnie jegomosc bedzie zalezec cena Euro/usd..


1) EBC nie da sygnalu co do dalszych zmian w swojej polityce pienieznej

moim zdaniem to rozczaruje rynki ...(slabe dane z Eurolandu,
obawy oslabienia w Eurolandzie..) spowoduja oslabienie EURo czyli
beda SS

2) EBC pierdnie ze polityka pieniezna moze zostac poluzowana
na nastepnych posiedzeniach (czyli za miesiac) moze
przyczynic sie do wzrostu zaufania jesli chodzi o wzrost
gospodarczy a co za tym idzie umocnienie EURO czyli LL

obecna cena euro/usd 1,31627

chetnie poslucham waszych opinii..