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EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Slips Below $1.3000 - Daily Studies Slide
RES 4: $1.3150/55 Former 38.2% $1.4940-1.2043, 100-DMA
RES 3: $1.3115/17 38.2% of $1.3711-1.2743, Apr 22 high
RES 2: $1.3070/96 55-DMA, High Apr 18
RES 1: $1.3006 Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: $1.2988
SUP 1: $1.2965/67/74/83 Low Mar 6, Low Mar 1, 23.6% of $1.3711-1.2746, 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.2941 200-DMA
SUP 3: $1.2893 55-week MA
SUP 4: $1.2800 Support line from Jul 24
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar slipped below the Apr 17 low and 5-wk MA, former supp at
$1.3002, and now holds just below while dly studies continue to decline. Initial
supp now at $1.2965/67/74/83, the lows of Mar 6 and Mar 1, the 23.6% of
$1.3711-1.2746 and the 21-DMA. A break below here would likely target a test of
the 200-DMA, further supp at $1.2941. Wkly tech studies appear weak and further
supp at $1.2893, the 55-wk MA. Bulls look to break the hourly high at $1.3006.
CABLE TECHS: Key Support Around $1.5198 to $1.5204
RES 4: $1.5485 Reversal low 28 Jun 2012
RES 3: $1.5406/10/12/24 Upper dly Bolli, Highs Apr 12, 11, 38.2% $1.6381-1.4832
RES 2: $1.5368/73/79 Highs Apr 19, 17 and 16
RES 1: $1.5298 Apr 23 high
LATEST PRICE: $1.5243
SUP 1: $1.5198/5200/04 23.6% $1.6381-1.4832, Support line Mar 12 low, Apr 22 low
SUP 2: $1.5104 Lower daily Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.5027/34 Low Mar 20, Low Apr 4
SUP 4: $1.4982 High Mar 13
COMMENTARY: Cable met support from the former 23.6% again at $1.5198, part of
initial support which now includes the 23.6% of $1.6381-1.4832, Support line
from Mar 12 low and the Apr 22 low at $1.5198/5200/04. This key support level
has held price action for the past two sessions while daily studies slide. Break
below here could prompt a new trend lower, next support seen at $1.5104, the
lower daily Bolli band. Initial res at $1.5298, the Apr 23 high.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Long Lower Shadow - Bulls Still Eye Y99.95
RES 4: Y101.91 Upper daily Bollinger band
RES 3: Y101.45/53 Reversal high Apr 2009, 3.00% MA envelope top
RES 2: Y100.18/19/53 Feb 11 res line, Mthly Ichimoku top, 2.00% upper MA env
RES 1: Y99.90/95 Apr 22 high, Apr 11 high
LATEST PRICE: Y99.63
SUP 1: Y98.49 Low Apr 23
SUP 2: Y98.10/19/21 Supp line Apr 4, 38.2% Y135.15-75.35, 23.6% of Y92.57-99.95
SUP 3: Y97.63/85 Apr 18 low, Tenkan line
SUP 4: Y97.13/18 38.2% of Y92.57-99.95, 21-DMA
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen left a long-lower shadow yesterday, cautioning bears,
despite the large negative divergence on 10-day momentum. Price action continues
to hang around just below the Apr 11 high of Y99.95, with bulls chomping to
retest this level and break above. Further res seen at Y100.18/19/53, the Feb 11
res line, mthly Ichimoku top and 2.00% upper MA env. Continued failure to break
above could send the pair lower, the Apr 4 supp line lies at Y98.10.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bounces From Tenkan - Bulls Eye Apr 11 High At Y131.12
RES 4: Y132.45 3.00% MA envelope top
RES 3: Y131.87/132.04 100-month MA, 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12
RES 2: Y131.12/17 Apr 11 high, 2.00% MA envelope top
RES 1: Y130.70 Apr 22 high
LATEST PRICE: Y129.35
SUP 1: Y128.29 23.6% of Y119.11 to Y131.12
SUP 2: Y127.87/88/128.06 Apr 23 low, Tenkan line, Apr 19 low
SUP 3: Y126.44/53 Low Apr 17, 38.2% of Y119.11 to Y131.12
SUP 4: Y126.04/20 High Mar 12, 21-DMA
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen left a long lower-shadow after bouncing from the Tenkan
line, ahead of this support still at Y128.29, the 23.6% of Y119.11 to Y131.12.
Further support at Y127.87/88/128.06, these being the Apr 23 low, dly Tenkan
line and Apr 19 low. 10-day momentum shows negative divergence but bulls likely
target a retest of the Apr 11 high at Y131.12, just below the 2% MA envelope top
at $131.17. Ahead of here, initial res seen as Apr 22 high at Y130.70.
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DOLLAR-WON TECHS: Continues To Pause Ahead Of Initial Resistance
RES 4: Krw1147.2 - High Apr 8
RES 3: Krw1136.4 - 200 week moving average
RES 2: Krw1133.6 - High Apr 12
RES 1: Krw1125.5 - High Apr 18
PRICE: 1119.900 @ 0141GMT
SUP 1: Krw1110.9 - Low Apr 2
SUP 2: Krw1102.6 - 200 day moving average
SUP 3: Krw1101.7 - Low Mar 14
SUP 4: Krw1090.4 - 100 day moving average
COMMENTARY: Initial resistance continues cap the USD/KRW with a close above the
Krw1125.5 weekly high from last week needed to see focus return to a close above
the 200-WMA and the 2013 highs. While the Apr 18 high caps we continue to look
for retests of the Apr 2 support and then the key Krw1101.7-1102.7 support
region below. A close below this region then sees the pair targeting a deeper
correction back to the Krw1077-1082 region.
DOLLAR-SING TECHS: Fails Again At Apr 4 Highs
RES 4: Sgd1.2529 - 2013 High Mar 20
RES 3: Sgd1.2461 - Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: Sgd1.2432 - 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Sgd1.2427 - High Apr 4
PRICE: 1.2416 @ 0141GMT
SUP 1: Sgd1.2369 - Low Apr 22
SUP 2: Sgd1.2347 - 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Sgd1.2309 - Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 4: Sgd1.2223 - Low Jan 11
COMMENTARY: USD/SGD has again failed at the Apr 4 resistance level, confirming
its significance. The falling 21 day upper Bollinger band comes in just above
the Apr 4 resistance level today further increasing the significance of this
resistance. With closes above the upper Bollinger band rare it is unlikely the
pair will manage to close much above the Apr 4 highs. A close above remains
needed to see focus return to the 2013 highs.
GOLD TECHS: 200-WMA Continues To Cap Bounces
RES 4: $1540.7 - Previous daily support now resistance
RES 3: $1523.0 - Monthly low Dec 29 2011
RES 2: $1460.0 - Hourly resistance Apr 15
RES 1: $1437.5 - 200 week moving average
PRICE: 1421.72 @ 0141GMT
SUP 1: $1404.3 - Low Apr 22
SUP 2: $1340.4 - Low Apr 18
SUP 3: $1323.9 - Low Apr 15
SUP 4: $1300.8 - 50% retracement of $681-1921 move
COMMENTARY: An inside day yesterday for gold and a close lower than opening
levels to end the run of higher highs on the bounce from last week's lows. The
200-WMA continues to be a sticking point topside with gold again failing at this
hurdle yesterday. We continue to look for a close back above the 200-WMA to
relieve the immediate bearish focus with a $1324-1523 region expected to define
in the coming weeks.
KIWI TECHS: 100-DMA Supports, 21-DMA Caps
RES 4: $0.8676 - 2013 High Apr 11
RES 3: $0.8592 - 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $0.8520 - Hourly resistance Aug 15
RES 1: $0.8444 - 21 day moving average
PRICE: 0.8429 @ 0142GMT
SUP 1: $0.8363 - 100 day moving average
SUP 2: $0.8337 - Low Mar 25
SUP 3: $0.8292 - Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 4: $0.8257 - 200 day moving average
COMMENTARY: The Kiwi dipped below previous support by a couple of pips yesterday
before bouncing off the 100-DMA with initial resistance now noted at the 21-DMA.
Overall while the $0.8520 level caps a break below the $0.8337-63 region remains
favoured with focus then turning to the 200-DMA and 2013 low below that. Topside
the pair needs to close above the $0.8520 level to relieve the current bearish
pressure and see the focus return to 2013 highs.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Closes Just Off Session Highs
RES 4: Jpy105.7 - 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Jpy105.4 - 2013 high Apr 11
RES 2: Jpy103.8 - High Apr 15
RES 1: Jpy102.9 - High Apr 22
PRICE: 101.89 @ 0142GMT
SUP 1: Jpy99.95 - Low Apr 18
SUP 2: Jpy98.94 - Low Apr 16
SUP 3: Jpy98.55 - Rising daily trend line
SUP 4: Jpy96.95 - Low Apr 2
COMMENTARY: The AUD/JPY bounced from the somewhat controversial low overnight to
close just off session highs after dipping marginally below the 21-DMA. A close
below the rising daily trend line remains needed to see overall focus return to
the Jpy92.50 level. Initial support remains around the Jpy100.00 level with
initial resistance remaining at the Apr 22 high. Daily tech studies are no
longer overbought and well placed for another test of 2013 highs.
AUSSIE TECHS: Overall Focus Remains On 2013 Lows
RES 4: $1.0478 - Previous daily support now resistance
RES 3: $1.0445 - Hourly resistance Apr 15
RES 2: $1.0399 - 200 day moving average
RES 1: $1.0358 - High Apr 19
PRICE: 1.0245 @ 0142GMT
SUP 1: $1.0222 - Low Mar 23
SUP 2: $1.0205 - Low Mar 11
SUP 3: $1.0117 - 2013 Low Mar 4
SUP 4: $1.0101 - Low July 12 2012
COMMENTARY: The AUD/USD made fresh 6 week lows once again yesterday before
finding support at the $1.0222 level and bouncing back towards the session highs
to close in NY marginally lower than previous closes. We will continue to look
for a close back above the Apr 19 resistance level to remove the immediate focus
from lower levels, while back above the 200-DMA remains needed to see focus
return to the 2013 highs.
