DayTrading: Poniedziałek 25.03.2013

[BOCZEK]

no tak

[richard.cali]

Otwiera Ktoś e-lki na edku teraz za 1.298X?

[rafmax]

Cena respektuje poziomy tak dobrze jak zawsze.

respektuje, tego nikt nie neguje, jednak warto zauważyć na stronę od której są respektowane to opór czy wsparcie już?

Zalezy od tego jak zachowa sie kurs w obrebie 1.3 na M5. Close powyzej 1.3 bedzie oznaka wchodzacego popytu.

http://screencast.com/t/61EsXPZZjN

hehe widze ze mamy podobny oczekujacy. ja mam na 1,2982. tylko czy bykom wystarczy cierpliwosci zeby pozwolic cenie tam zejsc...?

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EU: The ramificatiosn of the Cypriot bailout deal will likely dominate market
sentiment Monday, with data at a minimum on both sides of the Atlantic. The
markets will also see a slowdown ahead of the long holiday Easter weekend, with
many financial centres closed Friday and/or next Monday.
The European calendar gets underway with the release of Spanish February PPI at
0800GMT, followed by Italy's March ISTAT consumer confidence survey at 0900GMT.

EUROPE: The WSJ picks up on comments from Gabriel Sterne at Exotix, a hedge-fund
advisory, noting Cypriot GDP falls were likely to be "10% this year and 8% in
2014." Exotix see peak to through fall in GDP at around 23%, similar to that in
Greece, but with greater risk to the downside.

EUROPE: Sunday's Observer said fears are growing over the Russian reaction to a
Cypriot feat that hits their nationals deposits, with worries over reprisals on
Eurozone companies.

EUROPE: Despite a bailout agreement, The head of the Cypriot Orthodox church
said Cypriot politicians should walk away from a punitive deal with the EU and
consider leaving the euro in order to "save the nation's dignity," the Times
reports.

FRANCE: The outlook for France's banking system remains negative, Moody's
Investors Service says in a new report. This reflects its expectation that
French banks will continue to face difficult operating conditions in 2013,
amidst recessionary trends in Europe, Moody's says. The negative outlook also
captures the banks' significant reliance on wholesale funds and certain downside
risks to asset quality, although the rating agency recognizes the meaningful
progress that the banks have achieved through their adaptation plans. French
banks' exposures to Italy and Spain, mainly through local subsidiaries and
accounting for 5% of total assets, remain a tail risk for the system, Moody's
says.

CYPRUS: Summary of deal reached "in principle" last night with eurozone
FinMins:
- Depositors with accounts less than E100,000 protected under EU law.
- Equity investors and bond holders, including senior creditors, of
Cyprus Popular Bank will lose all their money and large depositors with
more than E100,000 at the bank, the second-biggest in Cyprus, will lose
a significant percentage of their money when the bank's good assets and
insured deposits are transferred to bigger rival Bank of Cyprus.
- Problem loans and other bad assets in of Cyprus Popular will be
placed in a 'bad bank' whose assets eventually will be sold off and the
bank shut.
- E9.0bln in emergency liquidity loans granted to the ill-fated
institution will be transferred to Bank of Cyprus.
- While uninsured depositors, including wealthy foreigners and
corporations at Cyprus Popular could lose their full E4.8bln, the
losses for clients of Bank of Cyprus are still uncertain.

EUROZONE: On reaction of Russian investors, Cyprus Finmin Sarris says he
recognizes many of their loyal international partners will be "disappointed,
disillusioned" with recent developments in Cyprus and it will be "unrealistic to
claim we will not sustain substantial losses."

EUROZONE: Cyprus Finmin Sarris says this week's decision corrects problems
accumulated in the economy over time.

EUROZONE: Cyprus Finmin Sarris says no decision yet on when banks will re-open
but aim is to open as soon as possible.

EUROZONE: From Cyprus Finmin Sarris:
-WE HAVE AVERTED BANKRUPTCY
-HAVE ACHIEVED BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME
-WE AVOIDED DISASTROUS EXIT FROM EUROZONE
-CYPRUS PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO GO THRU TOUGH TIMES
-A GOOD NIGHT FOR CYPRUS, EUROZONE



UK: UK data is released at 0930GMT, with the release of the February BBA Lending
Data and BBA Mortgage Approvals. Mortgage approvals are seen at 33500 in the
month, a couple hundred higher than February.

UK PRESS: The FT says investment bankers in the UK are still paid more than
comparable professionals, but the pay gap is narrowing. Citing a report by PwC,
the paper says investment banker pay multiples have fallen from 9.5 times the
private sector average to "just" 5.8 times.

UK PRESS: The independent says house prices in the UK recorded their biggest
gains in three years in March, with gains in London again leading the way. The
Hometrack survey says UK prices rose an average 0.3% m/m in the month, with
London prices advancing 0.7%.




US: The data calendar is largely second tier and starts at 1330GMT
with the release of the MNI Capital Goods Index for the March 22 week, followed
at 1430GMT with the release of the MNI Retail Trade Index for the week March 23.
Also at 1430GMT, the March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey report is released.
Analysts are looking at a number of 3.7, against 2.2 in February.
Central bank speakers end the day. At 1630GMT, New York Federal Reserve Bank
President William Dudley delivers a speech to the Economic Club of New York.
Then at 1715GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and IMF Chief Economist
Olivier Blanchard discuss lessons from the financial crisis with BOE Gov. Mervyn
King at the London School of Economics.

US PRESS: India's federal government has simplified rules for investments by
foreign institutions in local debt, in an effort to attract more funds into the
country to help finance the ballooning current account deficit, The Wall Street
Journal reported at the weekend. The changes, effective from April 1, will
retain the limits on investments by foreigners in government bonds at $25
billion and corporate bonds at $51 billion, and remove a complicated system of
subcategories within these two sections that had throttled foreign investment.



EURO: Following the Cyprus bailout deal, Westpac's senior currency analyst Sean
Callow notes market has seen a relief rally in euro as the (small) threat of
broad financial collapse in Cyprus and even exit from euro is avoided. But
according to him, "the woefully handled bailout of a tiny EMU member is hardly
cause for a sustained rally. The eurozone economy remains in recession with
recovery distant, while the political standoff in Italy (outstanding debt of
E1.7 trillion) continues." Callow remains a seller of euro at rallies with a eye
on $1.2700-$1.2800 multi-week.


EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.2989 after rate had traded with a
positive speculative tone through Europe and NY on anticipation that the weekend
would bring a deal for Cyprus. Rate had seen highs around $1.3010 after
recovering from sub $1.29 following the brief set back provided by the weak
release in Germany Ifo. The rate came under pressure into early Asian dealing as
traders reacted to the failure to find an agreement for Cyprus ahead of market
opening. Rate was pressed to initial lows of $1.2965, with move extending as
market reacted to a wire headline that Cyprus was resisting bank restructuring
proposal to $1.2943. No further negative news allowed rate to recover, edging
back to $1.2980 with move then getting a boost as news filtered through that a
tentative agreement had been reached. Euro-dollar spiked on to $1.3031,
triggered stops lifting it on to $1.3048. Rate squeezed back to test the broken
resistance at $1.3010 before pushing back up to retest highs as details of the
agreement were announced. Rate was seen holding firm into Europe, just off the
overnight highs. Offers are seen into $1.3050, a break to expose the $1.3076,
which if hit would close last weekend's technical gap.

EURO-DOLLAR: Corrective pullback off overnight highs of $1.3048 extend below
$1.3000, touching $1.2991 but again the dip seen attracting bid interest. Early
Europe were seen selling back into the overnight rise (reaction to the Cypriot
agreement) with dips now attracting profit take buy backs. Stronger demand seen
into $1.2985/80 ($1.2983 61.8% $1.2943-1.3048).

EURO-DOLLAR: Slippage continues, despite earlier reports of Swiss private bank
buys above $1.2990. Rate extends its corrective pullback away from $1.3048 highs
to $1.2985, challenging reported stronger demand placed between $1.2985/80. A
break below this area to open a deeper move toward $1.2965/55, with further
demand noted close behind at $1.2950/45. Resistance now seen at $1.3020, more
toward $1.3050 with stops now building above.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3130/35 Medium offers
$1.3100/10 Strong offers
$1.3075/85 Strong offers
$1.3076 NY close Mar15, gap to $1.2958 Asia open Mar18
$1.3050 Medium offers/$1.3045 76.4% $1.3107-1.2844/Stops
$1.3048 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2996 ***Current mkt rate 0800GMT Monday
$1.2986 Pullback low off $1.3048 into Europe
$1.2985/80 Medium demand/$1.2983 61.8% $1.2943-1.3048
$1.2943 Int.Day low Asia
$1.2894 Friday Ifo react low before bounce
$1.2885/75 Strong demand/$1.2882 200-dma
$1.2875/70 Stops, larger on break of $1.2860
$1.2857-44 Wednesday Mar20 low-Tuesday Mar19 low
$1.2840 Strong demand on approach/Stops



CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5230 after rate had traded with an underlying firm
tone through Friday's session as it extended its recovery to a high of $1.5248,
off pre BOE Minutes lows of $1.5027 seen last Wednesday. Rate saw a sharp move
higher into early Asian dealing with stops through $1.5260 targeted and
triggered to take it on to a high of $1.5280. Move was seen in thin conditions
with the early euro sell off (on no Cyprus agreement at the market open)
dropping euro-sterling from its NY close around stg0.8530 to stg0.8491 which in
turn provided a good part of the upward thrust. Euro recovery, the cross pushing
back to stg0.8550/60 (stg0.8557 61.8% stg0.8602-0.8484) area, saw cable sink
back to $1.5220 before it attracted fresh demand that lifted it back to $1.5260
before settling between $1.5240/50 into Europe. The announcement by Fitch late
Friday that it was putting the UK on ratings watch negative appears to have had
little impact, however, a move by S&P likely to be of more interest. Cable
offers remain in place to $1.5280, a break to open a move toward $1.5300.
Support $1.5220, more into $1.5200. For the cross, offers remain into stg0.8560,
more at stg0.8575 ahead of stg00.8600/05. Bids stg0.8500-0.8480.


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Friday at Y94.46 after recovering from a late
pullback low of Y94.28. Rate was pressed to an early low of Y94.26 as it took
its early lead from the opening negative pressure on the euro as no agreement
had been reached into the market open, with euro-yen easing from Y122.75 to
Y122.12. Euro recovered, aided by no further negative news, with the
announcement of a tentative Cyprus deal, then confirmation, taking the cross up
to Y123.85. This move bounced dollar-yen to Y94.97, with early Japanese going
long on expectation of a positive Nikkei. Offers placed ahead of Y95.00
countered and allowed for a pullback to Y94.70 before fresh demand edged rate
back to Y94.94. Failure to push through Y95.00 prompted spec longs to cover
back, the rate easing to Y94.65 ahead of the European open. Euro-yen settled
around Y123.40. End of the month-FY approaching with traders noting that
exporters have been holding off end year covering. However, should this selling
emerge they expect retail investors (Mrs Watanabes) to be around picking up
dollar-yen into dips.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are trading higher Monday, as
markets are boosted by the Cyprus deal and lower yen. The Nikkei 225 was higher
by 207.93 points, or 1.69%, at 12546.46. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX
was higher by 11.63 points at 1050.20. Market breadth indicators saw 185 issue
higher, 30 lower and 10 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.354 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2800, $1.2825, $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3125
* Dollar-yen; Y94.00, Y94.15, Y95.00, Y95.50, Y95.60, Y96.25
* Cable; $1.5000, $1.5100, $1.5200
* Aussie; $1.0350, $1.0360, $1.0400, $1.0450


BELGIUM AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium taps its 5-year benchmark 1.25% June 2018 OLO,
10-year benchmark 2.25% June 2023 OLO and also 20-year benchmark 4.00% Mar 2032
OLO issues for E2.5bln-E3.5bln. These are Belgium's first bond auctions for this
year, with the debt agency so far selling its first two bond via syndication
this year -- new 10-year OLO on Jan 9 for E4.0bln and a new 5-year OLO on Feb 19
for E5.0bln. The 20-year OLO was last sold on Oct 29 for E670mln and is
therefore not comparable. This now implies that Belgium has so far achieved
24.3% of its E37.0bln OLO funding programme. Auction results are due at around
1110GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Mar 25 Berlusconi hearing in Ruby case
- Mar 25 Italy CTZ/linker auction for up to E4.0bln
- Mar 25 ECB deadline for agreement on Cyprus bailout or lose ELA funding
- Mar 25 EU Van Rompuy/Barroso at EU-Japan Summit in Tokyo
- Mar 26 Cypriot banks expected to reopen?
- Mar 26 Italy sells 6-month T-bill for E8.5bln
- Mar 26 Bank of Portugal releases Spring economic bulletin
- Mar 27 Eurozone flash HICP
- Mar 27 Italy BTP auctions
- Mar 27 Irish by-election in Meath East
- Mar 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.35bln
- End Mar Earliest date new Italian government can be formed
- Apr 4 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Apr 4 Spain bond auction
- Apr 8 ESM Regling speaks at FDEF Conference on "Is the Euro crisis over?"

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Mar 25 Fannie Mae to announce Benchmark Note issuance
- Mar 25 Treasury Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- Mar 25 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- Mar 25 UST announces 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- Mar 25 Fed Dudley (voter) at Econ Club in NY at 1230ET
- Mar 25 Fed Chair Bernanke, IMF Economist Blanchard and BoE Gov King at LSE at
1315ET
- Mar 25-Apr 5 Congressional Easter/Passover recess
- Mar 26 Portugal FinMin Gaspar at Brookings Inst in Washington at 1000ET
- Mar 26 Treasury Cpn Purch May 15 2020-Feb 15 2023 $2.75-$3.5B
- Mar 26 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Mar 26 UST auctions $35Bn 2y at 1300ET
- Mar 27 Treasury Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- Mar 27 Fed Evans (voter) at wire reporters breakfast meeting in Chicago at
1100ET

[BOCZEK]

to na tyle spadków?

[Bemowo]

Otwiera Ktoś e-lki na edku teraz za 1.298X?

jak dla mnie statek tonie. chyba najgorsze co mogło się wydarzyć.
Kretyński pomysł zaakceptowany i wszyscy idioci się cieszą.
Niestety technicznie raczej long

-- Dodano: pn 25-03-2013, 9:35 --

ejek - pat - dziura logarytmiczna pomiędzy h1 i h4

[Damar]

25 marca 2013

Morgan Stanley wszedł w shorta na GBP/USD za $10 milionów ze stop lossem na 1.5400 i take profit 1.4300.

Bak uzasadnia swoją decyzję widoczną dywergencją pomiędzy fundamentami Wielkiej Brytanii a zachowaniem Funta szterlinga. Dodatkowo Dolar powinien kontynuować ruch aprecjacyjny.

[davor5]

25 marca 2013

Morgan Stanley wszedł w shorta na GBP/USD za $10 milionów ze stop lossem na 1.5400 i take profit 1.4300.

Bak uzasadnia swoją decyzję widoczną dywergencją pomiędzy fundamentami Wielkiej Brytanii a zachowaniem Funta szterlinga. Dodatkowo Dolar powinien kontynuować ruch aprecjacyjny.

wariat

[Bemowo]

25 marca 2013

Morgan Stanley wszedł w shorta na GBP/USD za $10 milionów ze stop lossem na 1.5400 i take profit 1.4300.

Bak uzasadnia swoją decyzję widoczną dywergencją pomiędzy fundamentami Wielkiej Brytanii a zachowaniem Funta szterlinga. Dodatkowo Dolar powinien kontynuować ruch aprecjacyjny.

wariat

- technicznie tak

ponad 60 jest na long - więc banki już się przygotowywują do żniw

[richard.cali]

No ciekawe czy Longi wytrwają w tych trudnych czasach, Morgan Stanley przeciwko detalowi i jak to się zakończy? zgodnie z newsami, z ankiety wynika, ze bedzie Morgan stanley VS wątek DT nawigatora, i co teraz