DayTrading: Wtorek 19.03.2013

[ForexTig3r]

WYKRESY

Cypr to pretekst do realizacji RGR-a, jutro już nikt nie będzie o nim pamiętał.
Opiera się głównie na mediach.

[cajto]

kabel bez zmian.

Mamy trójkąt, ten jest większy od poprzedniego

-- Dodano: wt 19-03-2013, 7:32 --

Dzisiaj Cypryjczycy pokażą jaja i wyśmieją całą tą Unię...
Głosowanie podobno około 17-tej..

Nikt o zdrowych zmysłach na takie warunki się nie zgodzi!!!!

Patrzę na dwie D1 na kablu i szczerze powiedziawszy w ogóle mnie one nie nastrajają do wzrostów. Najbardziej prawdopodobną sytuacją dla mnie jest wybicie z trójkąta połączone z utworzeniem drugiego szczytu i dalej w dół.
Po 10:30 powinno się wyjaśnić.

Co do Cypru, to myślę że nie uchwalą tego. Za dużo zbyt dużych by straciło, trochę czasu już minęło, wielu głosujących można było...przekonać aby nie szli ta drogą.

Na Ejmanie na niskich TF chłopaki od rana "idą na Miszcza"

[molmomas]

ale do głosowania edek może testować linię oporu na 1.299

[cugan]

FOREX KILLER dla EUR/USD TF = M30, H1 i H4 sygnalizuje "NO TRADE" dla D1 BUY

[ForexTig3r]

A co to jest FOREX KiLLER

[Bemowo]

Na dziennym kablu wymowa średnich jest ewidentnie pro spadkowa, problem w tym, że na H4 jesteeśmy za wysoko, na godzinowym przeszliśmy z trendu wzrostowego w boczny

[molmomas]

edek jednak nie chce rosnąć.

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EU: There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Tuesday, although
attention will likely still focus on the continuing Cypriot bank levy
shenanigans, with the Cypriot lawmakers currently slated to vote on a deal at
1600GMT.
Ahead of that, the data calendar kicks off at 0700GMT, with the release of the
Eurozone Feb ACEA new car registrations numbers.
At 0800GMT,European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will address the ECB-EU
Commission conference in Frankfurt. Also at 0800GMT, the OECD Economic Survey of
France will be released.
Italian data is expected at 0900GMT, as January industrial production numbers
will be released. Expectations are for a fall of 0.3% on month, and a 5.6%
annualised fall.
At 1000GMT, the eurozone January construction output numbers will cross the
wires. However, the more important release, due at the same time, is the German
March ZEW survey.
Tuesday will also see the release of the key German ZEW survey of business
analysts. Even more heavyweight, the IFO business survey will be released on
Thursday. Recent data flow has underlined the continuing divergence between
robust activity in German activity and pretty much all the rest of the zone
where growth verges on the moribund.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann is slated to
address the Frankfurt Finance Summit 2013, also at 1000GMT.
At 1500GMT, European Central Bank Executive Board member Yves Mersch gives
remarks at a Joint ECB-EU Commission conference in Frankfurt, while at 1700GMT,
Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret delivers a speech on financial
regulation Frankfurt Finance Summit 2013.
Also at 1700GMT, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is
set to speak at an exhibition opening in Vienna.

EUROPE: Wires picking up on comments from Cypriot government spokesman, saying
the Parliament is unlikely to approve the bank deposit levy and they continue to
seek ways to mitigate the fall out on smaller depositors.

EUROPE: The Times says Russia and the EU are "in a stand-off" over Cyprus, with
Moscow threatening to withdraw financial aid for Cyprus after the bank deposit
levy.

ITALY: Brussels has given Italy the green light to increase BTP sales, the FT
reports, saying the increase in borrowing could be used to pay "tens of billions
of euros" owed in arrears to the private sector.

EUROZONE: Text of the EUROGROUP statement re Cyprus is on the web
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/c ... n/136246.p
df Key Bits"The implementation of the reform measures included in the draft
programme is the best guarantee for a more prosperous future for Cyprus and its
citizens, through a viable financial sector, sound public finances and
sustainable economic growth. I reiterate that the stability levy on deposits is
a one-off measure. This measure will - together with the international financial
support - be used to restore the viability of the Cypriot banking system and
hence, safeguard financial stability in Cyprus. In the absence of this measure,
Cyprus would have faced scenarios that would have left deposit holders
significantly worse off. The Eurogroup continues to be of the view that small
depositors should be treated differently from large depositors and reaffirms the
importance of fully guaranteeing deposits below EUR 100.000... The euro area
Member States stand ready to assist C yprus in its reform efforts on the basis
of the agreed adjustment programme."

BUNDS: June Bunds open up 11 ticks Tuesday at 144.05.




UK: There is a stream of UK data from 0930GMT, including February Producer Price
Index, Feb Consumer Price Indices and the Jan House Price Index. The publication
of producer price data for February, due Tuesday, is the first data event of
next week and the figures will probably show that rising oil prices and a weaker
pound pushed up prices during the month. Sterling oil prices rose by around 7%
in February, suggesting input prices should rise. Consumer price data will be
published alongside the PPI data. Rises in utility bills and higher food prices
during the month will put some upward pressure on inflation and MOST analysts
expect the CPI rate to rise after having remained at 2.7% since October. That
said, survey evidence from the British Retail Consortium's shop price index
report suggests that core inflationary pressures continue to fade. The February
inflation data will see the launch of the CPIH measure, which includes housing
costs, and if some analysts are right Osborne could announce Wednesday that this
will be the new target measure for the BOE MPC.

UK: Comments from City Minister Greg Clark on Cyprus
- Cyprus situation uncertain, subject to change
- Deal won't affect Cyprus bank branches in the UK
- Confirms to compensate soldiers based in Cyprus
- Very fluid situation re Cyprus
- Cyprus banks in especially acute situation within eurozone
- Without Cyprus deal may not rep share of things to come
- UK has no influence on Cyprus discussions.
- Cyprus shouldn't have been allowed to get to this point
- Cypriot UK bank branches open, operatiing today
- ECB has been very clear that Cyprus situation is unique
- Germany clear -- up to Cyprus how it makes contributions.
- Cyprus banks not of systemic importance
- Cyprus problems clearly related to euro membership.

UK PRESS: UK clearer RBS, 85% owned by the taxpayer, is set to invest around stg
700 mn in its branch network, the Telegraph reports, as the group looks to
improve its "customer experience."

UK PRESS: UK Chancellor George Osborne is set to use the Budget to further
squeeze public sector spending, the FT reports, as the government continues to
shore up government finances.



US:At some point Tuesday, President Barack Obama meets with Ireland PM Kenny in
Washington. for a belated St Patrick's Day gathering.
Also Tuesday, the Fed's FOMC begins its latest 2-day policy meeting.
The US calendar starts at 1145GMT, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman Store
Sales data for the March 15 week.
At 1230GMT, the main releases include the US February Housing Starts and
Building Permits numbers. The pace of housing starts is expected to rise to a
915,000 annual rate in February after sharp movements in the previous two
months. Even with the recent volatility, the trend of home building remains
clearly upward.
At 1255GMT, the Redbook Average for the March 15 week will hit trader screens.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Monday at $1.2955 after recovering off a late NY
session pullback of $1.2924 as the market reacted positively to a Eurogroup plan
to take small bank depositors (less than E100,000) in Cyprus out of the bail-in
payment requirement, though still expects the country to come up with E5.8bln
for the planned levy. Rate edged to an early high of $1.2964 before turning
lower, touching a base at $1.2936 before settling between $1.2950/65 through the
middle part of the Asian session before edging up to $1.2970 ahead of the
European open. Rate remains open to headline risk, with speculation over the
result of today's proposed Cyprus parliament vote (1600GMT) for the Troika
measures. As a case in point, rate has just dropped back from that high to
$1.2935 as it reacts to Cyprus government spokesman commenting that he doubts
the levy measures will be approved. Offers remain into $1.2970, stronger at
$1.2995/1.3000, with stops seen from $1.3010. Support $1.2935-20, stronger
toward $1.2900 (61.8% $1.2882-1.2996). Apart from Cyprus headline risk Germany
ZEW due for release at 1000GMT. Traders still seem to favour selling into
rallies toward the $1.2970/00 area.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3076 NY close Mar15, gap to $1.2958 Asia open Mar18
$1.3040/50 Medium offers/Stops
$1.3010 Medium offers/$1.3015 Stops
$1.3000/05 Stops
$1.2980-000 Strong offers
$1.2970 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2954 ***Current mkt rate 0714GMT Tuesday
$1.2935 Int.Day low Europe-Asia
$1.2935-20 Medium demand
$1.2900 Medium demand on approach/61.8% $1.2882-1.2996
$1.2882 Int.Day low Asia
$1.2985/75 Strong demand/$1.2875 200-dma; $1.2877 Dec7 low and 50%
$1.2043-1.3711
$1.2860 Stops
$1.2855-40 Strong demand/$1.2850 Option barrier/Stops


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5106 after recovering off a late NY pullback low of
$1.5088. The late recovery continued into early Asia as rate edged on to $1.5114
before this early bid interest faded and rate tracked euro-dollar's corrective
pullback to $1.5085. Recovery back to retest earlier highs before rate drifted
off, settling around $1.5100 into Europe. Cyprus headline risk remains key on
the day, recent comments from a Cyprus government official suggesting that
today's vote will reject the levy proposal prompted a quick risk aversion move
that favoured the dollar. Moves in cable overnight tracked euro-dollar for the
most part, the cross holding between stg0.8573/84 during the main opart of Asia,
before it was shoved down to stg0.8566 on that Cyprus comment. UK domestic data
sees PPI input/out prices at 0930GMT, though most attention will be on Cyprus
headlines. Cable support seen at $1.5085/75 ahead of $1.5060/590. Resistance
$1.5145-60 with stops placed on a break above. Euro-sterling support seen at
stg0.8565/55 ahead of stg0.8535/30. Resistance stg0.8595/00.


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Monday at Y95.17 after pulling back from a recovery
high of Y95.60. Rate picked up fresh demand into Asia that took it through
Y95.65, the move triggering stops and provided the added momentum to lift the
rate on to highs of Y95.75. Euro-yen saw a similar move, closing in NY at
Y123.29 after rate had pulled back from Y123.96 to Y122.88 before it recovered
into the close. This recovery continued into Asia, the rate edging on to Y124.13
before this move suffered a late session reversal to Y123.41 as the euro came
under general pressure on suggestions that the Cyprus parliament vote later
today will reject the current levy proposals. This move lower in the cross
dragged dollar-yen down to Y95.39 into early Europe. BOJ Shirakawa steps down
today and is currently due to make a farewell speech. Market will now turn
attention to the new leadership of the BOJ to see if they voice their intentions
for future action when they take over the reins Wednesday. Further yen weakness
still expected though technical signals are seen weakening.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are sharply higher Tuesday, as
markest bounce back from the previous session's sell-off. The Nikkei 225 was
higher by 247.60 points, or 2.03%, at 12,468.23. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 18.27 points at 1046.61. Market breadth
indicators saw 208 issue higher, 15 lower and 2 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.65 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.3000, $1.3065, $1.3140, $1.3150
* Dollar-yen; Y94.20, Y94.30, Y94.50, Y95.00, Y95.25, Y95.60, Y96.00, Y96.50
* Cable; $1.5000, $1.5100, $1.5170
* Aussie; $1.0330, $1.0400, $1.0425


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: The Netherlands comes to the bond market Tuesday with launch
of its new 10-year bond 1.75% July 2023 DSL via the Dutch Direct Auction (DDA).
The debt agency said it aims for a minimum size of E5.0bln. Overall, sovereign
bond issuance in the eurozone this week is estimated to come in around E22.65bln
vs E22.28bln sold last week. As a recap, Slovakia kicked off issuance on Monday
with tap of the floater Nov 2016 SLOVGB218 and also 3.875% Feb 2033 SLOVGB224
issues for E99.8mln and E50.5mln, respectively. Looking ahead German reopens its
10-year 1.50% Feb 2023 Bund issue on Wednesday for up to E4.0bln. On Thursday,
France sells a new 0.25% Nov 2015 OAT and also taps its 1.00% Mar 2018 OAT
issues on Mar 21 for between E7.0bln-E8bln. In addition, the AFT plans to tap
the 0.25% July 2018 OATei, 1.30% July 2019 OATi and also 1.85% July 2027 OATei
for between E1.0bln-E1.5bln. Spain taps its 2-year benchmark 2.75% 2015 Bono,
10-year benchmark 5.40% 2023 Obligacion and also off-the-run 4.50% 2018 Bono for
between E3.0bln-E4.0bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption
payments and coupon payments from Italy E0.1bln and Greece E0.1bln -- leaves net
cash flow negative to the tune of E22.5bln vs -E0.3bln last week.

NETHERLANDS: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) launches its new 10-year
benchmark 1.75% July 2023 DSL issue Tuesday via Dutch Direct Auction (DDA). The
initial spread guidance for the new 2023 DSL is at +44/+47bps vs the reference
the 1.50% Feb 2023 Bund issue, said the DSTA. Books are due to open at 0900GMT
and will close at 1600GMT, added the DSTA. The debt agency said it aims for a
minimum size of E5.0bln and through subsequent reopenings, the outstanding
amount of this bond will rise to at least E15.0bln before the end of the year,"
the debt agency added. The auction comes after the Netherlands recently hiked
its funding requirement for this year by E0.8bln to approximately E91.1bln. That
said, the DSTA's intended call on the capital market remains unchanged at
approximately E50bln and the call on the money market has now been increased to
E41.1bln from E40.3bln. The DSTA has so far raised E11.45bln YTD, which equates
to around 22.9% issuance in the capital market. The allocation and the cut
off-spread will be announced as soon as possible after the closing of the book,
and no later than 0800GMT on the day following the auction, according to the
DSTA.

SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico sells a 3-month T-bill, maturing
21 June, 2013 and also 9-month T-bill, maturing Dec 13, 2012 issues Tuesday for
an indicative size of between E3.0bln-E4.0bln. The auction comes amid recent EMU
periphery spread widening as caution prevails ahead of Cypriot parliamentary
vote on eurogroup's bank deposit levy decison. In addition, the auction comes
ahead of Spain's regular bond tap auction of 2015-/2018-/2023 issues on Thursday
also for up to E4.0bln, which follows special bond auction last week. The
3-month mid-yield is currently seen at 0.3196%, and for comparison purposes it
was last sold on Feb 19 for E886mln at an average yield of 0.421% and then
covered an impressive 5.76 times. The 9-month T-bill mid-yield is seen around
0.954% and was also last sold on Feb 19 for E3.115bln at an average yield of
1.144% and then covered 2.31 times. Auction results are due around 0940GMT.

GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA)
sells 3-month T-bill Tuesday for E1.0bln. The PDMA will once again allocate an
extra 30% of amount auctioned, in non-comp bids and a further 30% in second day
bids, to bring total amount to be issued to E1.6bln. Greek spreads have widened
since news of Cyprus bailout at the weekend, amid uncertainty ahead of Cypriot
parliament crucial bank levy vote later Tuesday. That said, demand is seen
underpinned by the E1.6bln T-bill redemption from Greece due on Mar 22. The PDMA
last sold a 3-month T-bill on Feb 12 for E1.3bln at an average yield 4.05% --
lowest level since Feb 2011, and then covered 1.76 times. Auction results due
around 1015GMT.

ESM: The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is scheduled to issue a new 6-month
Sep 19, 2013 bill for up to E2.0bln on Tuesday. The ESM bill programme has
replaced the existing EFSF bill programme and the ESM will regularly hold bill
auctions, to be held on Tuesdays, initially focusing on 3-month and 6-month
bills. The last 6-month bill issued by ESM on Feb 19 saw E1.948bln alloted at an
average yield of 0.0374%and covered 2.5 times. Prior to this, it was sold on Jan
22, where E1.97bln was raised at an average yield of 0.0245% and bid-to-cover of
2.3 times. The auction closes at 1130GMT, with results announced shortly
afterwards by Germany's Bundesbank.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for this week:
- Mar 19 Cypriot parl to vote on bank levy at 1600GMT -- delayed from Monday
- Mar 19 ECB Draghi welcome address at joint ECB-EU conference
- Mar 19 Formal initiation of coalition negotiations by President Napolitano
- Mar 19 ESM sells 6-month Bills for up to E2.0bln
- Mar 19 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills for between E3.0bln-E4.0bln
- Mar 19 Greece sells 3-month T-bill for E1.0bln
- Mar 19 OECD economic survey on France
- Mar 19 German Mar ZEW business survey
- Mar 20 Portugal sells 3-/6-month T-bills for E1.25bln-E1.5bln
- Mar 20 EU Van Rompuy/Barnier at European Banking Federation conf
- Mar 20 EMU Mar flash consumer confidence data
- Mar 21 Spain sells 2015-/2018-/2023 bonds for between E3.0bln-E4.0bln
- Mar 21 German Mar IFO business survey
- Mar 21 Dutch FinMin Dijsselbloem speaks to European Parliament
- Mar 22 Cyprus FinMin Sarris speaks at conf on "What Lies Ahead for Cyprus"

[cugan]

A co to jest FOREX KiLLER

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ov1LAhSit5I
Jak widać rynek może być nieobliczalny

[Vanitas Vanitatum]

Cypr nie ma wyjścia, albo dadzą te 10% albo stracą 100% po upadku systemu bankowego.