DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.03.2013

[cugan]

Ktoś mi wyjaśni dlaczego Cypr spowodował taką reakcję
Nawet jakby go szlak trafił całkiem to było by mało, a tu takie rzeczy...

Cyprem można wytrzeć sobie wszystkie problemy finansowe.
Mały kraj bananowy .Małpy zakosiły kasę małpy temu winne nie UE
Trzeba było trzymać kapustę w rzetelnym banku płacić podatki a nie u dzikusów

[handlare]

fundamenty fundamentami, a technika technika. sadze ze na e/u warto dluga zagrac i uwazam ze najblizsze 45 minut to potwierdzi. odbilismy od 2885.

[molmomas]

myślę że taką lukę to przynajmniej do połowy wjadą, a potem ? zobaczymy

[jurekszczurek]

fundamenty fundamentami, a technika technika. sadze ze na e/u warto dluga zagrac i uwazam ze najblizsze 45 minut to potwierdzi. odbilismy od 2885.

może jakiś retest być

widać trochę popytu siedziało tam ale słabo odbija

[molmomas]

luki mają to do siebie że często są zamykane (choć nie zawsze) a korekta po takim spadku wskazana

-- Dodano: 18 mar 2013, 08:31 --

taka sytuacja się kroi

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EU: There is a fairly limited calendar Monday, although markets are likely to be on
full alert for the fallout after the Cyprus bailout deal, particularly the
ramifications of the imposed bank deposit levy.
The calendar starts at 0900GMT, when European Central Bank Executive Board
member Joerg Asmussen appears on a panel discussing the euro crisis, in Berlin.
The only scheduled European data is expects at 1000GMT, when the eurozone
January trade balance numbers will be released.
Lastly, at 1700GMT, European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen
is scheduled to give a speech on the ECB role in the eurozone crisis.

EUROZONE: The Cypriot cabinet has declared Tuesday as a bank holiday and may
even declare Wednesday a holiday on fear depositors will rush to withdraw from
banks after the weekend bailout proposal that includes levy on bank deposits,
eKathimerini reports. Monday is already a bank holiday in Cyprus to observe a
Lent holiday. The bank levy proposal will be tabled in the Parliament on Monday
but MNI reports Cyprus is seeking last-minute changes to the deal where a lower
levy is proposed for deposits below E100,000 and higher for above that level.

EUROZONE: Russian depositors are likely to be hit hard by the Greek bailout
levy, eKathimerini reports, as they are likely to be charged up to 10% of the
estimated E15 bn in deposits at the island's banks.

EUROZONE: The losses from Cyprus bailout proposal are credit negative not only
for Cypriot bank creditors, but also for other European bank creditors since
this is a significant step toward limiting or removing systemic support for bank
creditors across Europe, Moody's says. "The credit implications for sovereign
creditors are more finely balanced and less clear," Moody's says in its Credit
Outlook report.

BUNDS: June Bunds open up 102 ticks Monday at 144.41.



UK:In the UK, at 1415GMT, the Bank of England releases details of the latest
Reverse Gilt Auction, seen in the 3 to 7-year sector of the curve.

UK PRESS: Speaking on the BBC Sunday, Chancellor George Osborne says thee is no
"magic wand" to boost UK growth, but rejected calls from the Tory right fresh
large public spending cuts.

UK PRESS: UK-based clearer is gearing up for "thousands" more job cuts, the FT
reports, as the group sets to outline a strategic outline ahead of an investor
day in two months.

UK PRESS: Ahead of Wednesday's budget, the papers are l;ooking at possible
measures to be included, with the FT saying the Chancellor is likely to extend
plans to help underpin house building and first time buyers.

UK PRESS: The FT says Wednesday's budget is likely to see another blow for
Chancellor Osborne's fiscal targets, as he is likely to set back until 2017/18
as when public sector debt is likely to start falling

UK PRESS: The Colombian central bank has doubled its forex purchases from last
year in its bid to keep the peso down, its governor Jose Dario Uribe said in an
interview published in Emerging Markets. From $20 mln a day last year, the bank
upped the purchases to $30 mln a day in January and are now close to an average
$40 mln a day. Uribe did not specify if the bank would up the daily purchases
further, but comments from President Juan Manuel Santos on March 14 signalled
that this is a definite possibility, the report said.



US/CANADA: Data starts at 1330GMT, with the release of the MNI Capital
Goods Index for the March 15 week. In Canada, the January International
securities transaction data will cross the wires.
Back in the US, at 1400GMT, the March NAHB Index and the January BLS State
Unemployment numbers are expected.
US data continues at 1430GMT, with the release of the MNI Retail Trade Index for
the March 16 week.

US: Recent stress test by the Fed and its results are credit positive for U.S.
banks, says Moody's Investors Services, but adds that weaknesses in capital plan
of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan that resulted in Fed making conditional approval
of their capital plans are credit negative.



FOREX: UBS forex strategist Beat Siegenthaler says it is likely to be a
difficult day for the euro today as investors might want to be on the safe side
in case the low but serious tail risks from Cyprus bailout proposal were to
materialize. He expects safe haven currencies to probably do well, particularly
the franc. "Even though we do not believe the market scare will last, investors
are likely to trade defensively and any fading of the moves might thus have to
wait until at least parliament has approved the deal," he says. Euro is at
$1.2907 now vs $1.3077 Friday close but dollar-chf is also higher at CHF0.9449
vs CHF0.9384 Friday. "Ultimately the parliament would seem to have no choice but
to accept the deal, possibly after adjusting the numbers and putting a heavier
burden on larger depositors. However, the fear will be that once banks reopen
and the levy is being applied, depositors might still opt to withdraw their
remaining balances. It is not clear how the troika would address such an
outcome," he says.

FOREX: Speculative accounts trimmed their net euro short position and added to
their net yen short position as of March 12, according to U.S. CFTC data,
released Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only section,
excluding options -- showed speculators had a net euro short position of -24,787
contracts as of Tuesday, compared to last week's net euro short of -26,116
contracts. This week's net long contrasts to the record net euro long of
+119,538 contracts seen May 15, 2007 and the record net euro short of -214,418
contracts, seen June 5, 2012. Speculative accounts had a net yen short of
-93,763 contracts as per March 12, versus the prior week's net yen short of
-73,351 contracts and the yen short of -94,401 contracts from December 11, which
was the largest net yen short position since July 2007. The record net yen short
of -188,077 contracts was seen June 26, 2007 and the record net yen long of
+65,920 contracts seen March 25, 2008. The euro closed near $1.3034 and
dollar-yen at Y96.08 March 12, which compared to closing levels Friday at
$1.3055 and Y95.45.


EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3076 after recovering off a US session
corrective pullback low of $1.3046. The decision to penalise Cypriot bank
depositors, as part of the Troika bail-out terms for Cyprus, prompted negative
news reports on the euro, and the knock on effects this decision would have,
leaving markets to mark down euro-dollar into opening trade Monday. Rate opened
at $1.2955 and was promptly pressed to early lows of $1.2905., the move taking
out barrier interest at $1.2920 but the larger one at $1.2900 drew stronger
defence. A brief recovery to $1.2930 allowed for fresh selling that took rate to
an eventual overnight low of $1.2882, just shy of its 200-dma at $1.2873
(Bloomberg), recovering to $1.2905 into Europe. The NY close/Asia open leaves a
120 point gap to fill which tech traders will focus on. Markets Monday will try
and assess if the events in Cyprus will be a contained event and the effects on
the euro. Bids remain in place between $1.2885/75, the area covering the 200-dma
as well as Dec7 lows at $1.2877. Resistance seen at $1.2920/30, a break to open
a move toward the opening area at $1.2955/60.


CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.5114 after recovering off a pullback low of
$1.5076, seen after the rate had earlier seen highs of $1.5177. Risk was under
pressure into the Asia open as the market marked the euro lower following the
Troika's proposal to penalise Cypriot bank depositors, with the implications
should this event not be a contained event, cable was marked down to $1.5080 at
the open, extended lows to $1.5061 before it spiked back up to $1.5160 as
euro-sterling, which had gapped at its open from stg0.8650 to stg0.8584,
extended the move to stg0.8533. Demand placed between stg0.8535/30 provided a
base in the cross which in turn allowed cable to track euro-dollar moves, the
rate easing to $1.5072 before settling around $1.5100 into the European open.
The cross edged away from its base to stg0.8562 before it settled around
stg0.8540. Release of Rightmove house price data overnight, showing a move to
1.2% from 1.1% in the annual rate was basically ignored due to the Cyprus
events. The domestic data calendar is light with moves to come from external
factors. Sterling may attract some risk off inflows, despite further QE threat,
but could be viewed as a safe haven for depositors.


YEN: Volatile start to the week for yen pairs as markets reacted to the Troika
decision on Cyprus to penalise bank depositors as a prerequisite for a bail out.
Dollar-yen, and especially euro-yen, were marked down at the open to the week's
trade, the former from Y95.28 to Y94.03, before it extended this move in early
trade to Y93.57, while the cross dropped from Y124.58 to an Asian open at
Y121.76, extending to an early low of Y121.15. Dollar-yen recovered to Y94.99
before drifting off to Y94.33 ahead opf Europe. Euro-yen recovered to Y122.70
before it too drifted back to Y121.64 before edging back toward Y122.00 into
Europe. The gaps evident on the charts will be of interest to tech traders, with
markets expected to close these. Asian traders noted that Tokyo remained
interested buyers into dips. Euro-yen, which was seen as a lead pair through the
overnight session, will again dictate yen moves as it will react to the fall out
during the day to the weekend news.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are sharply lower Monday, weighed
by the Cypriot bailout deal. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 340.32 points, or
2.71%, at 12,220.63. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 20.54
points at 1031.11. Market breadth indicators saw 14 issue higher, 210 lower and
1 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.65 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3055, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3190, $1.3200
* Dollar-yen; Y95.70, Y96.00, Y96.05, Y96.50, Y97.00(large)
* Cable; $1.4800(large), $1.4900, $1.5000, $1.5100(large), $1.5250
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0425, $1.0430


SLOVAKIA AUCTION PREVIEW: Slovakia kicks off issuance on Monday with Ardal due
to tap its floater Nov 2016 SLOVGB218 and also 3.875% Feb 2033 SLOVGB224 issues
Monday. Ardal has estimated the reasonable value of bids for the floater 2016
SLOVGB218 bond at E100mln -- has E431.4mlnb available for sale and for the
3.875% 2033 SLOVGB224 at E75.0mln -- issue has E141.4mln available for sale. The
floater was last sold on Feb 18 for E260mln at an average yield of 0.55% and
then covered 1.35 times. The 3.875% 2033 SLOVGB224 was last sold on Feb 8
through direct sale. The auctions are expected to be well received given the
small sizes and in line with historic results. Auction results are due around
1015GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for this week:
- Mar 18 Election of Presidents of each legislative chamber in Italy
- Mar 18 German Merkel meets France Hollande, EU Barroso in Berlin
- Mar 18 German Schaeuble inaugural financial stability meeting
- Mar 18 Bundesbank monthly report
- Mar 18 IMF to present Article IV consultation on Estonia
- Mar 19 ECB Draghi welcome address at joint ECB-EU conference
- Mar 19 ESM sells 6-month Bills for up to E2.0bln
- Mar 19 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
- Mar 19 Greece sells 3-month T-bill for E1.0bln
- Mar 19 OECD economic survey on France
- Mar 19 German Mar ZEW business survey
- Mar 20 Deadline for Italy chambers to elect a speaker
- Mar 20 Portugal sells 3-/6-month T-bills for E1.25bln-E1.5bln
- Mar 20 EU Van Rompuy/Barnier at European Banking Federation conf
- Mar 20 EMU Mar flash consumer confidence data

US: Timeline of some upcoming key events in the US for the next several days:
- Mar 18 Treasury Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- Mar 18 UST announces 4-wk at 1100ET
- Mar 18 UST auctions $35Bn 13-wk, $30Bn 26-wk bills at 1130ET
- Mar 18 Irish PM Kenny on trans-Atlantic trade in Washington at 1530ET
- Mar 19 Pres Obama meets with Ireland PM Kenny in Washington
- Mar 19 Treasury Cpn Purch May 15 2020-Feb 15 2023 $2.75-$3.50B
- Mar 19 UST auctions 4-wk at 1130ET
- Mar 19-20 Tsy Lew visits China
- Mar 19-20 FOMC policy meeting
- Mar 20 FOMC Statement and SEP projections at 1400ET
- Mar 20 Fed Chair Bernanke's press conference in Washington at 1430ET
- Mar 20 CFTC Gensler on commodity reg to IMF in Washington at 1545ET
- Mar 21 Pres Obama to visit Israel, W. Bank, Jordan
- Mar 21 Treasury Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B

[cugan]

[niemiaszek]

wersja poglądowa AT

18-mar-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Turned Away By 21-DMA, Bears Force Gap Lower
RES 4: $1.3253 55-day moving average
RES 3: $1.3129/45/50 100-DMA, Low Feb 22, 38.2% $1.4940/1.2043
RES 2: $1.3074/75/80/91 76.4% of $1.2877-1.3711, Mar 5 & 6 highs, 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.2993 5-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.2887
SUP 1: $1.2843-83 Lower dly Bolli, 200-DMA, low Dec 7, 50.0% $1.2043-1.3711
SUP 2: $1.2769 2.00% MA envelope lower
SUP 3: $1.2736 Low Nov 21
SUP 4: $1.2662/80 Nov 13 reversal low, 61.8% of $1.2043-1.3711
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar reverses and gaps lower to trade below the Feb 1 res
line and push further south towards the 200-DMA to post a fresh March low, now
at $1.2885. Dly studies are choppy and look less bullish, wkly studies decline
and mthly studies show the potential to reverse. Key initial supp seen at
$1.2843/73/77/83, a break and close below may turn the pair bearish and target
the Nov 13 reversal low at $1.2662. Initial res at $1.2993, the 5-DMA.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3160/65 Medium offers
$1.3140 Stops
$1.3130/35 Strong offers/Stops/Mar8 high
$1.3110 Medium offers on approach/$1.3107 Mar15 high/Stops
$1.3076 NY close Mar15, gap to $1.2958 Asia open Mar18
$1.2958 Int.Day high Asia/Offers to $1.2960
$1.2920/30 Medium offers
$1.2908 ***Current mkt rate 0746GMT Monday
$1.2882 Int.Day low Asia
$1.2980/70 Strong demand/$1.2873 200-dma; $1.2877 Dec7 low and 50%
$1.2043-1.3711
$1.2870 Stops
$1.2860/50 Strong demand/$1.2850 Option barrier/Stops
$1.2825/20 Medium demand
$1.2800/790 Medium demand/Stops


18-mar-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Bullish Engulfing On Weekly Chart, Key Jan 2 Res Line At $1.5172
RES 4: $1.5321/28 High Feb 22, Reversal low 22 Sept 2011
RES 3: $1.5219/22/35 Feb 26 high, Feb 28 high, Reversal low Jan 2012
RES 2: $1.5198/99 23.6% $1.6831-1.4832, High Mar 5
RES 1: $1.5160/72/77 Hourly high, Res line from Jan 2, Mar 15 high
LATEST PRICE: $1.5094
SUP 1: $1.5023 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.4982/86 High Mar 13, Low Mar 1
SUP 3: $1.4866/85 Low Mar 11, 8
SUP 4: $1.4824/32/55 Lower daily Bolli Band, Low Mar 12, 61.8% of $1.3503-1.7043
COMMENTARY: Cable tests the Jan 2 res line but price action holds below the
21-DMA, now at $1.5115. Bulls broke higher but met res around $1.5160/72/77, the
hourly high, Jan 2 res line and Mar 15 high. Dly studies have been sent higher,
but failure to close above $1.5172 could see them reverse lower again. Wkly
chart shows bullish engulfing pattern, but confirmation needed. Initial supp at
$1.5023, the 5-DMA, further supp at $1.4982/86, the Mar 13 high and Mar 1 low.

18-mar-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Studies Sharply Lower, Jan 23 Key Supp Line At Y92.72
RES 4: Y96.71 Mar 12 high
RES 3: Y96.31 2.00% upper MA envelope
RES 2: Y95.45 Low Mar 13
RES 1: Y94.99 May 2010 reversal high & Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: Y94.33
SUP 1: Y93.41/57 38.2% of Y88.06-96.71, Hourly low
SUP 2: Y92.72 Jan 23 support line
SUP 3: Y92.38 50.0% of Y88.06-96.71
SUP 4: Y91.84/92.09 55-DMA, 23.6% of Y77.13-96.71
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen gaps lower to trade between the Tenkan line and Kijun
line, but has broken above and below these levels already. Dly studies are
sharply lower and the pair finally follows 10-day momentum study and wkly
studies down. Initial supp now seen at Y93.41, the 38.2% of Y88.06-96.71.
Further supp seen at Y92.72, the key Jan 23 support line, which held as supp
before. Bulls look above the 23.6% level and Tenkan line to retest Mar 12 high.

DOLLAR-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y97.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y96.71 12 Mar high
Y96.60 Medium offers
Y96.40 Medium offers
Y96.20 Strong offers
Y95.70 5-day ma
Y94.99 May 2010 reversal high
Y94.85 Tenkan line
Y94.72 ***Current mkt rate 0750GMT Monday
Y94.50 Stops
Y94.18 200-hour ma
Y94.11 21-day ma
Y93.79 Kijun line
Y93.20 Stops


18-mar-2013 7:41
EURO-YEN TECHS: Gaps Lower With Daily Studies, Holds Below Key Initial Res
RES 4: Y123.81/86 Low Mar 8, High Jan 30
RES 3: Y123.33/60 Apr 2011 high, Tenkan line
RES 2: Y123.09/16 38.2% of Y169.96-Y94.12, 21-DMA
RES 1: Y122.71/82/84 Hourly high, Daily Ichimoku top, Kijun line
LATEST PRICE: Y121.80
SUP 1: Y121.15 Hourly low
SUP 2: Y120.13/16 High Jan 14, 22
SUP 3: Y119.78 23.6% of Y94.12-127.71
SUP 4: Y119.41 38.2% of Y105.98-127.71
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen gaps lower too and moves into the daily Ichimoku cloud
while daily studies sharply decline. Weekly studies are also bearish and initial
supp now seen at Y121.15, the hourly low, further supp at Y120.13/16, the highs
of Jan 14 and 22. Further key supp at Y119.78, the 23.6% of Y94.12-127.71, the
large rally from mid-2012 to early Feb 2013. Bulls tested initial res already,
seen at Y122.71/82/84, the hourly high, daily Ichimoku top and Kijun line.

EURO-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y126.95 12 Feb high
Y124.06 14 Mar low
Y123.86/81 Jan 30 high, 8 Mar low
Y123.60 Tenkan line
Y123.33 Apr 2011 high
Y123.20 21-day ma
Y123.00 Offers on approach, stops
Y122.84 Kijun line
Y122.34 ***Current market price 0743GMT Monday
Y122.00 Demand on approach, stops
Y121.80 Minor stops
Y121.73 55-day ma
Y121.50 Light demand

[molmomas]

opór w okolicach 1.2818 na edku został przekroczony co może otworzyć drogę do 1.2945-50
ujek walczy z oporem 94.75 jak go przejdzie to mamy okolice 95.12

[niemiaszek]

CYPRUS: Cypriot politicians are reportedly due to vote on levy today --
debate in parliament starts at 1400GMT or 1600 Cyprus time.