EU: At 0730GMT with the release of the February Banque de France business survey numbers.
There are a couple of schedules speakers, although no time is on the slate.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco will speak on
European crisis, in Rome, while EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner
Olli Rehn gives a speech on European economic policy coordination, in Warsaw.
Back on the data front, 0800GMT sees the release of Spanish January industrial
output data and Germany's January industrial output numbers are set to hit the
wires at 1100GMT.
Also at 1100GMT, European Central Bank Executive Board member and chief
economist Peter Praet speaks on central banking in times of crisis, in Brussels
AUSTRIA: The outlook for the Austrian banking system remains negative (unchanged
from 2009), Moody's Investors Service says in a banking system. The outlook and
reflects a a weakening operating environment, amid recessionary trends in Europe
and pressurized operating environments in several central and eastern European
countries (CEE) in which the largest Austrian banks operate, rising risk
charges and deteriorating asset quality, and the limited loss-absorption
capacity of many banks in a stressed environment. These negative drivers are
partly counter-balanced by the only-modest funding risk of most Austrian banks,
which is a relative strength of this system, Moody's says.
UK PRESS: The Telegraph picks up on comments to students at Amsterdam University
by Dutch FinMin and Eurogroup head, Jeroen Djisselbloem, saying the UK could
face another sterling crisis is speculators use teh public finances as an excuse
to target sterling.
UK PRESS: New accounting rules put forward by the International Accounting
Standards Board could see banks forced to take billions in additional losses,
the Telegraph reports.
UK PRESS: UK papers pick up comments from the head of Barclays to shareholders,
suggesting that the bank could shed a further 40,000 jobs over coming years.
US/CANADA: Data starts at 1315GMT with the release of the Canadian
February housing starts.
Further data is due north of the border at 1330GMT, when Canadian February
Employment data and Q4 Labour productivity numbers will be released.
The main event is also due at 1330GMT, when the US February Non-farm Payrolls
and the Unemployment Rate data hit screens.
Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 160,000 in February, compared with the
157,000 rise in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to fall
back to 7.8% from 7.9% in January. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2%,
while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.4 hours for the
fourth straight month.
Late Friday, from 0100GMT, US Federal Reserve Gov. Elizabeth Duke speaks on
housing and mortgage markets to the MBA in Avon, Colorado.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3106 after rate had been pressured to extended
recovery highs of $1.3119 as ECB Draghi failed to provide any dovish signals for
a rate cut. This recovery had pushed up from late Wednesday NY lows of $1.2965.
Rate consolidated this rally in early Asia, trade contained within a range of
$1.3102/16, until it got pressed back to $1.3087, settling then below $1.3100
ahead of the European open. Euro-trade was basically sidelined with more
interest seen in yen pairs as the Japanese currency continued to lose ground,
the rise in euro-yen seen in tandem with dollar-yen and having little knock on
effect into euro-dollar. Traders have reported offers in place between
$1.3120/25, placing stops above the 100-dma, which today comes in at $1.3128,
with main stop interest seen on a break of $1.3130. However, should this level
give way stronger offers seen in place into $1.3150. Support seen back at
$1.3080, more into $1.3055/50. US employment report at 1330GMT the key release
on the day, the recent strong ADP report prompting hopes for a strong number.
Ahead of this German IP due at 1100GMT, which after Thursday's weak German
factory orders data, expected to come in with a weak reading.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5013, after pulling back from a recovery high of
$1.5083, with euro-sterling's break above stg0.8700, and push on to stg0.8732
providing the late negative weight. Cable managed to recover to $1.5026 in early
Asia only to come under further downside pressure as traders reacted to reported
comments in the press from Eurogroup president Dijsselbloem that 'Britain's high
national debt and persistent budget deficit had left it (sterling) vulnerable to
attacks from currency traders. Cable stepped its way to an overnight low of
$1.4982, while the cross extended its recovery to stg0.8740, but the pound was
finding friends into early Europe as it pulls away from worst levels. Cable
demand remains in place into $1.4980, stronger between $1.4965/60 ahead of
barrier interest at $1.4950. Resistance seen at $1.5000, a break to open a move
toward $1.5020/30. Euro-sterling sees resistance into stg0.8750/60 (stg0.8759
76.4% stg0.8815-0.8576). Support stg0.8720, stg0.8700. US employment report
(1330GMT) key release on the day.
YEN: Dollar-yen powered up to an extended high of Y95.10 in NY Thursday, the yen
losing ground across the board which also saw euro-yen rally to Y124.58.
Dollar-yen closed the NY session back at Y94.80, but was back up to challenge
Y95.00 into release of Japan GDP data. A flat reading for Q4 prompted another
round of yen sales, the spiking back up from an initial pullback to Y94.85 with
stops through Y95.10/15 providing the momentum that took rate to extended highs
of Y95.45. Option barrier interest has been noted at Y95.50, with protective
sell interest noted ahead. However, CTA stop entry interest has been noted from
above Y95.55 which could provide the next boost to upside progress. Euro-yen
closed NY at Y124.25 before it too rallied higher, moving through its NY high
and on to Y124.99. This failure ahead of Y125.00 expected to prompt talk of
barrier interest at the figure. A break here to open a move toward Y125.35/50.
Focus to turn to this afternoon's US jobs data at 1330GMT, the effect on US
yields to provide the next directional driver. End month/FY could prompt some
further repatriation interest into rallies.
DOLLAR-YEN: Nudging back toward overnight highs at Y95.45, currently around
Y95.40, with the reported barrier at Y95.50 seen as the near term target. A
break here expected to run into take profit sell interest, especially if move
seen pressured, but CTA accounts are said to have left stop entry interest from
above Y95.55 which could provide a boost for further upside progress.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Friday, hitting fresh
highs as the yen continues to fall. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 315.54 points,
or 2.64%, at 12283.62. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
14.63 points at 1018.98. Market breadth indicators saw 182 issue higher, 32
lower and 11 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 3.3616 bn shares.
AUSSIE: Closed in NY Thursday at $1.0273, after pulling back from a session high
of $1.0290. Rate touched an early high at $1.0276 into opening trade before
getting pressed down to $1.0255. Release of stronger than forecast China trade
data lifted rate back up to $1.0267, but on closer reading the fall in imports
weighed back to take rate down to $1.0244. A recovery to $1.0258 proved short
lived as the corrective pullback continued, the rate posting overnight lows at
$1.0236 before it settled between $1.0245/55 into Europe. Support seen at
$1.0225/20, from mainly option interest, with offers seen into $1.0280. One
trader suggests the $1.0230/80 range to contain ahead of NFP.
GOLD: Spot gold now trades down $1.07 at $1577.90 per ounce, in a $1576.82 to
$1580.35 range. The post rate closed at $1578.97/oz last night. "Gold gained in
New York as the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and a weaker
dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment,"
commented analysts at CIMB. MNI techs noted earlier key resistance lies ahead at
$1627.2 though only a recovery above the March 1 of $1586.80 would relieve the
current bearish pressure that is targeting a retest of the $1523-48 support
region.
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2800(large), $1.2950, $1.3000(large), $1.3075, $1.3100,
$1.3130
* Dollar-yen; Y93.75, Y94.00, Y95.00
* Euro-yen; Y121.00
* Cable; $1.4900, $1.5000, $1.5100
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9400, Chf0.9570
* Euro-Swiss; 1.2300, Chf1.2400
* Aussie; $1.0200, $1.0205, $1.0250, $1.0290, $1.0300(large)
* Kiwi; $0.8355
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0300
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no eurozone sovereign bond issuance scheduled Friday
after Belgium debt agency said it won't hold its optional reverse inquiry
auction. Overall, issuance this week totals E18.16bln vs E10.57bln last week. As
a recap, Austria kicked off issuance on Tuesday with tap of the 3.40% Nov 2022
RAGB & 3.15% June 2044 RAGB issues for combined size of E1.65bln. Germany
reopened its 5-year benchmark 0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl issue on Wednesday for up to
E4.0bln. On Thursday, France tapped 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 4.25% Oct 2022 OAT &
2.75% Oct 2027 OAT issues for E7.484bln. Spain tapped 3.75% 2015 Bono, 4.50%
2018 Bono and 5.40% 2023 Obligaciones bonds for E5.03bln combined size. In terms
of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption payments scheduled this week with
minor coupon payments from Belgium for E0.1bln -- leaves net cash flow negative
to the tune of E16.6bln vs -E1.6bln last week. For full details of forthcoming
issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow
Matrix.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Looking ahead into next week, sovereign bond issuance in the
eurozone is so far scheduled from Italy, Germany and the Netherlands -- expected
to slow down to E16.0bln vs E18.16bln this week. The Dutch State Treasury Agency
(DSTA) kicks off issuance on Tuesday with re-opening of its 3-year benchmark
0.00% Apr 2016 DSL issue for between E2.5bln-E3.5bln indicative size. Also on
Tuesday, Germany re-opens its 10-year linker 0.1% 2023 Bundei for up to E1.0bln.
On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 2-year 0.25% Mar 2015 Schatz issue for up to
E5.0bln and Italy conducts its regular mid-month BTP auctions -- likely to tap
3-year benchmark 2.75% 2015 BTP, recently issued 15-year 4.75% Sep 2028 BTP or
5.00% Sep 2040 BTP and floater June 2017 CCTeu for an expected size of up to
E7.0bln -- details to be announced later today. In terms of reinvestment flows,
redemption payment from Germany for E18.0bln and coupon payments from Italy
E1.7bln, Austria E1.4bln, Ireland E0.6bln, Germany E0.3bln -- turns net cash
flow positive to the tune of E6.0bln vs -E16.6bln this week. For full details of
forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net
Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Mar 08 IMF Lagarde concludes visit to Ireland; speech 1130GMT
- Mar 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.4bln
- Mar 09 Malta parliamentary election
- Mar 12 Italy sells 12-month T-bill for E7.75bln
- Mar 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
- Mar 13 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Mar 13 Italy medium-long BTP auctions
- Mar 14/15 European Council Summit
- Mar 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.685bln
- Mar 15 Spain T-bill redemption for E12.259bln
- Mar 15 First meeting of Italy Chamber & Senate (within 2-3 weeks of vote)
- Mar 18 Election of Presidents of each legislative chamber
- Mar 19 ESM Bill auction
- Mar 19 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills
- Mar 20 Deadline for Italy chambers to elect a speaker
US: US: Timeline of some upcoming key events in the US:
- Mar 08 Feb Non-farm Payrolls at 0830ET, est +160k NFP, +0.2% AHE
- Mar 08 Fed Gov Duke at Mortgage Bankers Assoc in Colorado at 2000ET
- Mar 11 Fed does $3Bn 28d TDF
- Mar 11 Treasury Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- Mar 11 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- Mar 11 UST auctions $35b 3m and $30b 6m bills at 1130ET
- Mar 12 Fed announces TDF results
- Mar 12 Outright TIPS Purchases Apr 15 2017-Feb 15 2043 $1.00-$1.5B
- Mar 12 Fed to buy TIPS, 2017-43, $1-1.5B
- Mar 12 SBC considers noms Cordray as CFPB Dir & White as SEC member at 1000ET
- Mar 12 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Mar 12 UST auctions $32b 3yr at 1300ET
