Hello
EU: There is a very full calendar Thursday, dominated by the mid-session central
bank announcements from both the ECB and the BOE. 
Ahead of that, French 4th quarter ILO unemployment numbers will be released, to
be followed by the release of the French January foreign trade data.
At 0800GMT, in Stockholm, Riksbank Gov. Stefan Ingves is to speak at an open
hearing on monetary policy before the Riksdag Committee on Finance.
At 1100GMT, German January manufacturing orders will cross the wires.
Back in Europe, at 1245GMT, the ECB will announce its latest policy decision,
follows by President Mario Draghi's press conference at 1330GMT.
Many have been looking for the ECB to ease this month, but consensus is behind
the central bank standing pat, perhaps allowing President Draghi to keep his
powder dry ahead of Italy forming a government.
At 1700GMT, European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg
Asmussen will deliver a speech in Ingolstadt (Germany), while at 1900GMT, German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble participates at an event organized by
regional daily Suedwest Presse, in Ulm (Germany)
ECB: Ahead of the ECB rate decision Thursday and ECB press conference, below are
some analyst expectations:
- BNP: Predict 25bp cut in refi rate in March or April on review of staff
projections.
- JP Morgan: Now expect a cut in refi rate having previously expect no change.
- Raboank: Lean towards refi rate cut, but close call. Expect dovish press conf.
- Barclays: Expect no change in policy rates. Reiterate highly accommodative
monetary stance. Chance of a 25bp cut in refi rate higher than a month ago.
- Commzerbank: Expect no change in rates, further downward revision to staff
projections unlikely.
- DB: No change in rates, risk of easing in non-standard policies in few months
- MS: ECB will remain on hold, but highlight increase risk of further action.
- Goldmans: Expect no change in policy. To revise inflation and GDP slightly
lower. Additional non-conventional measures more likely than cut in rates.
- Citi: Expect no change in rates and non-standard measures. Lean towards
further policy action in coming months.
PORTUGAL: S&P revises Portugal sovereign credit outlook up to stable from
negative, wires report. Now BB rated.
GREECE: A meet between Greek PM Samaras and the Troika has been postponed until
next week at the earliest, eKathimerini reports, as a numbers of outstanding
issues remain unresolved between the parties.
UK:The first central bank announcement of the European session comes at 1200GMT,
when the Bank of England will announce their decision. For choice, analysts see
the BOE on hold, although there is a solid body expecting a vote for an
extension in the stock of QE - by as much as stg 25 bn - as others on the MPC
fall behing the Governor and two others who voted for an extension in February.
UK PRESS: UK Business Secretary Vince Cable calls on Chancellor George Osborne
to change policy direction and give a big boost to capital spending. In an
article in The New Statesman, Cable argues that the "balance of risks" may have
changed and calls for "greatly expanded" capital spending. Cable warns that the
stg5bn increase in last year's Autumn Statement was too "modest" to have any
notable effect. Arguing that "the part of the fiscal consolidation achieved
through reduced capital spending has had economic consequences", he writes.
UK PRESS: The Telegraph notes holiday giant Thomas Cook is set to slash 2500
jobs in the UK, almost a fifth of the workforce, as it aims to save costs and
boost its UK business.
UK PRESS: The FT says the UK Budget later this month will likely see the
Chancellor lay out more powers for the BOE Governor over monetary policy and
strengthen the Treasury's mandate of "fiscal conservatism and monetary
activism." The paper says any change in the BOE's remit is likely to coincide
with the arrival on new BOE Governor Mark Carney in July.
US/CANADA: In the US, the February Challenger lay-off data will be
released at 1230 GMT.
There are data releases both sides of the 49th parallel at 1330GMT. In Canada,
the January building permits and January Int'l merchandise trade numbers will be
released.
In the US, the jobless claims data for the Mar 02 week will be released, along
with January international trade data and fourth quarter non-farm productivity
numbers.
The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 11,000 to 355,000 in the
March 2 week after falling by 22,000 in the previous holiday-shortened week.
Because the 368,000 level in the February 2 week will roll off the 4-week
average calculation as this week's level moves on, the 4-week average should
decline if the median MNI forecast is realized.
The international trade gap is expected to widen to $43.0 billion in January
after narrowing sharply in December. Boeing reported 24 foreign deliveries, down
from 44 in December to $38.5 billion on strong industrial supply exports and a
sharp decline in crude oil imports. Import prices rose 0.6% in January, with
petroleum prices up 2.9%. The remaining import components combined for a 0.1%
rise. Export prices rose 0.3%, and were up 0.5% when a 1.3% decline in
agricultural products prices was excluded.
Fourth quarter nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up only modestly
to a 1.6% decline for the quarter, as output is forecast to be revised up
slightly. Unit labour costs are seen being unrevised from the 4.5% preliminary
growth estimate.
At 1530GMT, the EIA Natural Gas Storage numbers for the Mar 01 week will cross
the wires.
Late US data from 2000GMT sees the release of the January Consumer Credit data.
Usage is expected to rise $15.0 billion, continuing a string of strong increases
that have been led in recent months by student loans and offset by declines in
credit card spending. Retail sales rose only 0.1% in January and were up 0.2%
excluding motor vehicle sales, suggesting that trend will continue.
Late US data sees the release of the February Treasury allotments at 2000GMT and
the Money Supply (M2) data for the Feb 25 week at 2130GMT.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.2973, just off posted lows at $1.2970,
after rate had been sold off on general dollar strength (reaction to stronger
than expected ADP data) as well as position adjustments ahead of today's ECB
rate decision/Draghi press conference. Rate extended lows to $1.2965 into early
Asian dealing, as market here probed for stops below the recently posted 2013
low at $1.2966 (Mar1). However, the early dip encountered demand interest,
traders noting that the larger stop interest seen placed under $1.2960, with
rate recovering off lows through the balance of the session to $1.2997, trading
around $1.2992 ahead of Europe. The move up in Asia was aided by S&P changing
its outlook for Portugal to stable from negative, though met headwinds as Dallas
Fed Fisher was reported saying that 'things in Europe are very bad right now.'
Offers are seen in place to $1.3000, more toward $1.3010 with stops above. A
break here to open a move toward $1.3050/60 ahead of $1.3080. Support
$1.2965/60, with stops below, if triggered to meet option linked demand ahead of
$1.2950, $1.2925 and $1.2900 barriers.
ECB in focus today, no change expected
for rates (1245GMT), though ECB Draghi expected to be dovish (1330GMT).
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3080 Wednesday Mar6 high
$1.3050/55 Medium offers
$1.3025/35 Medium offers
$1.3010 Medium offers on approach
$1.3008 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.29975
$1.3000 Option expiry(large)
$1.2994 ***Current mkt rate 0759GMT Thursday
$1.2966 Int.Day low Asia/Matches Mar1-2013 low
$1.2965/60 Medium demand
$1.2950 Strong demand/Option barrier(vanilla expiry)/Stops
$1.2925/20 Medium demand/$1.2925 Option barrier
$1.2900 Medium demand on approach/Option barrier
$1.2896 Tech 1.618% swing projection based off $1.2966-1.3080 recovery
$1.2880 Strong demand
$1.2865-50 Medium demand/$1.2850 Option barrier
CABLE: Strong ADP release Wednesday, along with position adjustments to long
cable positions ahead of today's BOE rate/QE decision saw rate under pressure
through the NY session, trading to extended lows of $1.5014 into the close. This
move lower was extended further as Asian traders reacted to an FT report
suggesting Chancellor Osborne to announce further powers to incoming BOE
Governor Carney at the Mar20 Budget. Options include giving the MPC greater time
to bring inflation back to the 2 per cent target, giving the BoE a Federal
Reserve-style dual mandate to target both employment and inflation, and even
targeting cash spending in the economy rather than inflation. Rate dropped
through recent lows of $1.4985 to $1.4965 but met decent demand linked to option
interest ahead of $1.4950. Rate recovered through the balance of the session to
$1.5018, holding around $1.4995/1.5010 into Europe.
BOE MPC announcement at
1200GMT, market mainly looking for no change in rates/QE, though are open to a
possible QE extension following the last meeting Minutes which showed King
moving to the extension camp. Resistance seen between $1.5015/25, more between
$1.5040/50. Support $1.4965/60, stronger toward $1.4950.
CABLE: Revisits area of earlier lows but again seen meeting willing buyers into
the dip. Rate trades back around $1.4975 after touching $1.4967. Bids seen at
$1.4965/60, stronger, option linked, demand seen into $1.4950 with stops below.
A break of $1.4965 to open potential for a move to $1.4932 (1.618% swing
projection based off the last minor recovery from $1.4965 to $1.5018), with the
bigger projection move seen to $1.4821 (based of recovery from $1.4966 to
$1.5200). Traders have reported decent demand from Asian real money accounts,
often seen directional, though currently seen paring back short positions into
the dips.
YEN: Dollar-yen touched a recovery high of Y94.11 in NY Wednesday as the dollar
was driven higher on react to a stronger than forecast US ADP data (upside
revisions also noted for Jan), and seen supporting positive calls for Friday's
NFP. Rate drifted back toward Y94.00 into the session close with early Asia
extending this move to Y93.82 on reaction to the unchanged BOJ (no surprise)
though it did include an upbeat view on the economy. Rate recovered to retest
the NY high at Y94.12, eased to Y93.80 before settling around Y93.90 ahead of
the European open. Similar story for euro-yen, the rate touching a high in NY of
Y122.28 before reversing into the close to Y122.00, with early Asia extending
this move to Y121.77, on early euro weakness, before rate recovered to Y122.16.
An afternoon drop back to Y121.86 then saw rate recover back Y122.00 ahead of
Europe. Asian traders have noted demand in place at Y93.75, with main sell
interest seen into Y94.50. A break of this latter level to expose recent highs
at Y94.77 (Feb25).
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Thursday. The Nikkei 225
was higher by 35.81 points, or 0.30%, at 11968.08. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 0.46 points at 1003.68. Market breadth
indicators saw 112 issue higher, 104 lower and 9 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.935 bn shares.
BOJ: More from policy statement by the Bank of Japan following a two-day policy
board meeting:
-- BOJ SHIRAI PROPOSES IMMEDIATE START OF OPEN-ENDED EASING
-- BANK OF JAPAN BOARD VOTES TO KEEP RATE AT ZERO TO 0.1%
-- BOJ: VOTE WAS UNANIMOUS
-- BOJ SHIRAI PROPOSES TO MERGE ASSET FUND JGB BUYS WITH RINBAN
-- BOJ: SHIRAI PROPOSALS VOTED BY 8 OTHER BOARD MEMBERS
-- BOJ MIAYO URGES AGAIN TO KEEP 0RATE UNTIL 2%CPI COMES IN SIGHT
-- BOJ: JAPAN ECONOMY HAS STOPPED WEAKENING
-- BOJ: JAPAN EXPORTS APPEAR TO STOP DECREASING
-- BOJ: JAPAN EXPORTS APPEAR TO STOP DECREASING
-- BOJ: JAPAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT HAS STOPPED DECREASING
AUSSIE: Closed NY at $1.0233 after pressing lower through the session on general
US dollar buying prompted by the release of stronger than forecast US ADP jobs
data. Rate dipped early in the session to $1.0219 on reaction to the Australian
trade deficit coming in wider than expected, but quickly recovered as details
showed that this number was greatly affected by seasonal factors. Rate recovered
to an overnight high of $1.0255, aided by decent demand for Aussie-Kiwi(NZ
sheep/beef farm profits likely to be hit by drought conditions). Rate drifted
back to $1.0240 where it met support, settling between $1.0240/50 into Europe.
Bids seen placed from $1.0220, more between $1.0210/00 with traders noting that
a 50% retrace comes in at $1.0210 ($1.0303-1.0116), with option linked demand
noted into $1.0200. Offers seen from $1.0255 through to $1.0270, a brerak to
expose $1.0295/00 area.
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2950,
$1.3000(large), $1.3030, $1.3050, $1.3150
* Dollar-yen; Y92.00, Y93.30, Y93.35, Y93.50
* Cable; $1.5150
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8640, stg0.8700, stg0.8800
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9350
* Euro-Swiss; 1.2250, Chf1.2280, Chf1.2320
* Aussie; $1.0140, $1.0200,
$1.0250(large), $1.0300
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0300
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: France & Spain come to the sovereign bond market Thursday.
France taps 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 4.25% Oct 2022 OAT & 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT issues
for between E6.5bln-E7.5bln indicative size. Spain taps 3.75% 2015 Bono, 4.50%
2018 Bono and 5.40% 2023 Obligaciones bonds for between E4.0bln-E5.0bln
indicative size. Overall, eurozone sovereign bond issuance this week is
estimated to come in around E17.65bln vs E10.57bln last week. Austria kicked off
issuance on Tuesday with tap of the 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB & 3.15% June 2044 RAGB
issues for combined size of E1.65bln. Germany reopened its 5-year benchmark
0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl issue on Wednesday for up to E4.0bln. On Friday, Belgium
conducts its Optional Reverse Inquiry (ORI) bond auction, but will confirm today
whether it will go ahead with it. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no
redemption payments scheduled this week with minor coupon payments from Belgium
for E0.1bln -- leaves net cash flow negative to the tune of E17.55bln vs
-E1.6bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone
bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico taps its 3-year benchmark 3.75%
Oct 2015 Bono, 5-year benchmark 4.50% Jan 2018 Bono and 10-year benchmark 5.40%
Jan 2023 Obligaciones issues Thursday for between E4.0bln-E5.0bln indicative
size. Spanish bonds have performed well in recent weeks after reports that
Spain's 2012 budget deficit will come in be below 7%, with 10-year yield
hovering just below 5.00%, despite Italy election jitters. Spain is likely to
issue a new 10-year benchmark bond issue by syndication in several months time,
around mid-year, if market conditions allow, Ignacio Fernandez-Palomero Morales,
Spain's deputy head of the Treasury and head of funding and debt management told
MNI. Morales also said Spain will sell a new syndicated 15-year benchmark bond
in 2013, if market conditions are stable. For comparison purposes, the 3.75%
2015 Bono was last sold on Jan 17 for E2.41bln at avg yield 2.71%, cover 2.09.
The 4.5% 2018 Bono was also last sold on Jan 17 for E2.41bln at avg yield of
2.71% and then covered 2.09 times. The 5.40% 2023 Obligaciones was last sold on
Feb 21 at avg yield 5.20% and covered 1.6 times.
Auction results are due around
0940GMT.
FRANCE AUCTION PREVIEW: The Agence France Tresor (AFT) taps its off-the-run
4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 10-year benchark 4.25% Oct 2022 OAT & 15-year benchmark
2.75% Oct 2027 OAT issues for between E6.5bln-E7.5bln indicative size. The
auction comes around 25 minutes after Spanish auctions and ahead of the ECB
press conference, where speculation of further dovish comments from Draghi and
risk of downward revisions in staff forecasts, which is seen underpinning
demand. The French 2-/30-year yield curve has steepened since comment yesterday
that France is considering whether to launch a 30-year bond, according to AFT
Deputy CEO Maya Atig and leaves the 2027 OAT looking cheap on the curve. For
comparison purposes, the 4.25% Oct 2022 OAT trades at 2.129% mid-yield and was
last sold on Feb 7 for E3.02bln at an average yield of 2.30% and then covered
3.09 times. The 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT for E3.19bln at an average yield 2.85% and
covered 1.79 times. The off-the-run 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT was last sold on Dec 6,
2012 and is therefore not comparable.
Auction results are due after 1000GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Mar 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Mar 07 Spain sells 2015-/2018-/2023 bonds for up to E5.0bln
- Mar 07 Ireland PM Kenny & EU Barroso speak in Brussels
- Mar 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.4bln
- Mar 09 Malta parliamentary election
- Mar 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Mar 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
- Mar 13 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Mar 14/15 European Council Summit
- Mar 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.685bln
- Mar 15 Spain T-bill redemption for E12.259bln
- Mar 15 First meeting of Italy Chamber & Senate (within 2-3 weeks of vote)
- Mar 18 Election of Presidents of each legislative chamber
- Mar 19 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills
- Mar 20 Deadline for chambers to elect a speaker
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
. Swap dodatni, to mogą mi ta pozycję nawet i rok trzymać.
.
, że prawie wyłysiałem, a teraz tak za friko daję.
