Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

obecne pozycje

1) LL gbp/usd 1,50806, SL 1,50680, TP 1,52195

2) LL gbp/usd 1,50805, SL 1,50667, TP 1,52136

1) pozycja zamknieta 1,51228 zysk + 42pipki

2) pozycja zamknieta 1,51189 zysk + 38 pipek

[Piotrek91]

Gratulacje

[andy11]

Gratulacje

dzieki...
bylo wiecej ale sily wyzsze nie pozwolily na zamkniecie pozycji...

[andy11]

Cable having reached session low 1.5064 is back up at 1.5100.

Sources report the following orders:

Buy orders (as aforementioned) clustered down at 1.5050/60

Sell stops gathering down at 1.5035/40

Sell orders clustered 1.5155/65 (1.5157 tenkan line)

Buy stops gathering up at 1.5170

[andy11]

What Do Deutsche Bank's Models Tell Us About The Current FX Dynamics And Strategies?


Since 2006, the Deutsche Bank has been running a handful of currency models capturing different investment strategies in FX.

Incorporating these models' data from the post-Lehman volatility, what do they tell us about the recent dynamics in the FX market, and which strategies and currencies do they now favor?

First, on the short side, DB models are most negative JPY, closely followed by GBP, CHF and CAD. On the long side, the models are long NZD, Scandis and the USD. This basket has already returned 7% this year.

Second, DB models suggest that poor FX returns over the last few years have been cyclical, rather than structural.

Third, DB models suggest that carry, valuation and momentum returns have already recovered to long-term average profitability.

[andy11]

Asymmetric Risks To GBP/USD Around BoE Meeting: Best Strategy To Trade It - Barclays


Consensus along with Barclays Capital expect no change in the Bank of England’s asset purchase program on Thursday.

However, according to Barclays, the BoE decision is likely to be finely balanced as it is likely to produce a binary outcome.

"A further easing in policy will likely lead to a large move lower in GBP. Alternatively, a decision to leave policy unchanged will not be accompanied by a statement, leaving the market with little further information on the likelihood of more easing," Barclays clarifies.

"While, in our view, the latter is most likely, the risks to GBP are asymmetric. A bounce due to a disappointment of expectations of easing is likely to be short-lived, since further easing is by no means off the table for the future. On the other hand, further QE will lead to a sharp sell-off in GBP," Barclays adds.

So what is the best strategy to trade this event with GBP/USD?

"Sell GBP/USD cash after the announcement, to trade a pure delta view. GBP may squeeze some shorts out before finding further selling pressure," Barclays advices.

Alternatively, investors interested in trading the event via options should consider buying a 1m 1x2 GBP/USD put spread after the announcement to trade a delta and vega view, Barclays adds.

[andy11]

What's Next For USD/JPY S/T: Levels & Targets - Nomura


USD/JPY price action over the last 3 days has formed a bull flag to complete a small Wave-iv correction, says Nomura.

So, where does this put the levels and traget to watch for over the coming sessions?

On the upside, Nomura sees the ongoing break of 93.73 targeting a zone between the first extension target at 94.22 and the bull flag protection level at 94.63. This zone is also the level of the last 2 pivot highs so minor resistance is expected in the 94.22/77 zone

On the downside, Nomura expects a pullback to 92.92 to quickly push towards 92.75. A break below this level, according to Nomura, invalidates the bullish call above.

[andy11]

Euro Area More Resilient; EUR To Resume Upward Path To 1.40 After Brief Correction - Credit Suisse


Along with the political uncertainty, the inconclusive outcome of the Italian elections has also provided the most significant test so far ECB President Draghi’s promise to do 'whatever it takes' to protect the euro, says Credit Suisse.

"We feel that if this election had occurred before the ECB became a 'rea' central bank (the OMT), many risk assets would have sold off heavily. Rather, while the euro dipped back to around 1.30, after hitting 1.3711 on 1 February, the price action feels to us more like a healthy correction (as occurred twice in the mid-2010 to mid-2011 rally to 1.48) than the beginning of a complete reversal," CS clarifies.

That, according to CS, shows that the Euro area's regional economy and financial markets have become more resilient to the inevitable ongoing political and structural challenges.

So what does this mean for the EUR going forward?

"Indeed, after moving in a relatively narrow range for the next month or so, we expect the Euro to resume its upward path, touching 1.33 in 3 months and 1.40 in 12 months," CS answers.

[andy11]

Morgan Stanley Invests $10 Million In A 6-Month Long USD/JPY Structure


Morgan Stanley invested $10 million in a long USD/JPY call spread expiring in September with a low strike at 96 and a high strike at 100.

The maximum loss on this structure is 87 bps and the payout ratio is greater than 4:1.

"We favor a USD/JPY call spread to take advantage of historically elevated skew," MS says.

MS also outlined 3 main factors for the continuation of the USD/JPY upside over the next 6 months:

(1) Japanese investors to unwind currency hedges on foreign investments,
(2) outflows to continue from Japanese money markets,
and
(3) Toshin accounts to sell further JPY.

[andy11]

How EUR/USD, GBP/USD Will Likely React To Today's CB Meetings?


We expect the euro to remain a sell as there is little scope for ECB President Draghi to turn less dovish at this week’s ECB press conference.

Both, falling manufacturing activity and inflation expectations support such a notion. Elsewhere, further improving US data is continuing to keep the greenback supported.

According to the latest ADP jobs report, the US economy added private sector jobs at a faster pace than expected. Still, investors’ main focus will be on Friday’s payrolls release.

Investors’ focus is shifting to the Bank of England policy announcement. We do not expect them to increase quantitative easing as early as this week.

According to our economists, better than expected business activity in the services sector is one factor possibly decreasing the probability for the central bank to act.

On a different note, strongly rising inflation expectations may also make a case for the BoE to keep a wait-and-see stance. Under such conditions GBP/USD will face correction risk, especially as speculative short positioning is elevated. However, from a broader perspective we expect the GBP to remain a sell on