DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Dyskusje na temat aktualnej sesji: komentarze, analizy, opinie.

Prognoza EURUSD na dzisiaj

Czas głosowania minął 06 mar 2013, 23:52

Wzrost
21
46%
Bez zmian
3
7%
Spadek
22
48%
 
Liczba głosów: 46

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cajto
Maniak
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: cajto »

rafmax pisze:NU
Tam jest też opcja ataku na 0.840x - Fibo 161.8 ostatniego dołka i szczytu połączone z wypełnieniem formacji harmonicznej typu Rekin.

rafmax
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: rafmax »

cajto pisze:
rafmax pisze:NU
Tam jest też opcja ataku na 0.840x - Fibo 161.8 ostatniego dołka i szczytu połączone z wypełnieniem formacji harmonicznej typu Rekin.
wiem, dlatego nalezy bacznie obserwowac PA i reagowac, szczegolnie w okolicy 0,8315 a pozniej 0,8290
"Buy the fu*king dip you fu*king idiot" :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

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niemiaszek
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: niemiaszek »

Hello


GERMANY: Germany's IG Metall trade union and the AGV Stahl steel employers
association on Wednesday reached a wage agreement for the western German steel
industry. Under the 15-month contract, the roughly 75,000 steel workers will
receive a 3.0% wage hike starting this month. The wage contract runs until May
31, 2014. The IG Metall had initially demanded a 5.0% pay rise and a 12-month
contract duration.


UK PRESS: Terry Smith, head of Prebon Tullet, says the group could lose staff
and business opportunities to offshore rivals such as Dubai if the EU bonus cap
ruling also applies to broking businesses, the Independent reports.

UK PRESS: The FT notes the globe's largest hedge funds lagged their smaller
rivals in performance last year, as calculations show the top 20 funds returned
less than a fifth of profits.

UK PRESS: Another tough day for the UK high street Tuesday, as retailer
Axminster Carpets fell into administration and warned of future job losses, the
Telegraph says.

UK PRESS: The rising cost of motoring in the UK is impacting lower income
households, with ONS data showing that they now spend up to 25% of their
disposable income on running a car, the Times reports.

BOE: RBS says Stg6.6bln of [BOE] Gilt buybacks are on the way and expect this to
be evenly distributed across the curve, with a relatively slow run rate (perhaps
over 3 month or longer). "However whether or not we get Stg25bn of QE is close
to a 50/50 call in our view and there remains good value in owning 20y bonds in
a 10s20s30s fly", said RBS. "The interesting discussion with respect to Gilt
purchases is not whether or not it happens, but if it does, what pace would
buyback operations come at?", RBS noted and added its base case expectation is
that the BOE carries out any QE purchases (Stg6.6bn reinvestment or further QE)
at a slow run-rate over several months. "This would tie in with Mr Fisher's
recent comments and avoid the need to alter the buyback setup that the market
has become accustomed to; a key reason why we are less fearful for our shorts at
the long end", said RBS.




EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3050 after recovering from a pullback low of
$1.3010, the rate having seen highs of $1.3075 earlier in the day. The recovery
into the close was seen on the strong close on Wall Street, the DJIA posting an
all time high during the session. Rate dipped back to $1.3042 before picking up
fresh demand, the rate extending the recovery to $1.3069 before momentum faded
ahead of Tuesday's $1.3075 high. Offers said to remain in place between
$1.3175/85, a break to expose $1.3200 with stops remaining in place through
$1.3205/10. Eurozone Q4 GDP due at 1000GMT with US ADP jobs data at 1315GMT and
US factory orders at 1500GMT the only key data releases on the day. Risk remains
in favour with euro-dollar holding firm ahead of the European open, currently
trading around $1.3067 after extending highs to $1.3071. Support seen back at
$1.3040 ahead of $1.3010/00. Position adjustments ahead of Thursday's ECB
Draghi's press conference could see market probing for stops.

EURO-DOLLAR: Edged up to extend recovery to $1.3080 in early Europe, the move
though meeting reported offers placed between $1.3075/85 which has so far
countered further upside progress. Rate currently trades around $1.3062. Above
$1.3085 to open a move toward $1.3100.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3140 Medium offers on approach
$1.3115/25 Medium offers/Stops above $1.3128 100-dma
$1.3105/10 Stops

$1.3100 Medium offers
$1.3075/85 Strong offers/$1.3075 Tues Mar5 high
$1.3074 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3071
$1.3066 ***Current mkt rate 0710GMT Wednesday
$1.3042 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3010/00 Medium demand/$1.3010 pullback low NY Tues Mar5
$1.2980-60 Medium demand dotted between/$1.2966 Fri Mar1 low
$1.2950 Strong demand/Stops

$1.2920 Medium demand
$1.2900 Medium demand on approach
$1.2880 Strong demand

$1.2865-50 Medium demand


CABLE: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.5133, the rate having recovered off a NY
session low of $1.5094 into the close. Cable had earlier in the day seen highs
of $1.5200, seen as a reaction to the release of stronger than forecast UK
services PMI which was seen offsetting recent weak manufacturing and
construction PMI data and putting forecasts for QE extension away from
Thursday's BOE meeting. Cable recovery continued through Asia, the rate pushing
up to $1.5155 ($1.5160 76.4% $1.5181/1.5094) before momentum faded, though
corrective pullbacks remained shallow. A move above $1.5160 to open a retest of
$1.5181 ahead of $1.5200. Support now seen at $1.5115/10 ahead of
$1.5100/1.5090. Euro-sterling closed in Ny at stg0.8624, the rate having seen
lows of stg0.8589 post PMI data, recovered to stg0.8632 before drifting off into
the close. Trade in Asia was confined to a relatively tight stg0.8621/33 range.
No UK data of note on the calendar with moves to come from position adjustments
ahead of Thursday's rate decisions from the BOE and ECB.


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y93.34 after pulling back from a NY high of
Y93.52. Rate touched a session high of Y93.38 in opening trade before getting
pressed to lows of Y93.00, eventually settling around Y93.20 through the Asian
afternoon. Traders noted that dollar-yen squeezed lower despite the Nikkei, like
other Asian equity markets, traded positive, with main downside pressure seen
from option structures getting unwound, as well as some month/FY end
repatriation flows. Bids seen from Y93.00 to Y92.90, more into Y92.70. Talk of
stops below this latter level, though some suggest the larger stops are placed
under Y92.60. Euro-yen closed Tuesday at Y121.80, just off late recovery highs
of Y121.87 with the corrective pullback extending to Y121.49 in early Tokyo
trade before it edged back to settle between Y121.70/80 into Europe. US ADP data
at 1315GMT to provide some boost to activity in yen pairs as traders will begin
to turn attention to Friday's NFP release.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Wednesday. The Nikkei
225 was higher by 248.82 points, or 2.13%, at 11932.27. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 14.19 points at 1002.81. Market breadth
indicators saw 164 issue higher, 44 lower and 17 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.722 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3150, $1.3200
* Dollar-yen; Y92.50, Y93.00, Y93.50, Y93.55
* Cable; $1.5000
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8650
* Aussie; $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0290


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E16.608bln allocated by Netherlands, France, Greece, Belgium
and ESM compared to E18.172bln allotted last week. To recap, on Monday
Netherlands sold E2.0bln 3-month May 31 DTC at average yield -0.021% and sold
E1.05bln 6-month Sep 30 DTC at average yield -0.014%. In the afternoon, France
sold E3.993 3-month Jun 6 BTF at average yield 0.013%, E1.693bln 6-month Aug 8
BTF at average yield 0.031% and E1.695bln 12-month Feb 6 BTF at average yield
0.082%. On Tuesday Greece sold E1.138bln 26-week Sep 6 T-bill at average yield
4.25%. Belgium sold E1.501bln 3-month Jun 20 TC at average yield 0.045% and
E1.565bln 6-month Aug 15 TC at average yield 0.067%. Finally ESM sold E1.973bln
3-month Jun 6 Bill at average yield -0.003%. T-bill issuance is expected to pick
up next week with plans from Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Belgium, expected
to total E26.0bln.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Germany comes to the bond market Wednesday with reopening of
its 5-year benchmark 0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl issue for up to E4.0bln. Overall,
eurozone sovereign bond issuance this week is estimated to come in around
E17.65bln vs E10.57bln last week. Austria kicked off issuance on Tuesday with
tap of the 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB & 3.15% June 2044 RAGB issues for combined size
of E1.65bln. Looking ahead, France taps 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 4.25% Oct 2022 OAT &
2.75% Oct 2027 OAT issues Thursday for between E6.5bln-E7.5bln indicative size.
Also on Thursday, Spain taps 3.75% 2015 Bono, 4.50% 2018 Bono and 5.40% 2023
Obligaciones bonds for between E4.0bln-E5.0bln indicative size. On Friday,
Belgium conducts its Optional Reverse Inquiry (ORI) bond auction, but will
confirm whether it will go ahead with it on Thursday. In terms of reinvestment
flows, there are no redemption payments scheduled this week with minor coupon
payments from Belgium for E0.1bln -- leaves net cash flow negative to the tune
of E17.55bln vs -E1.6bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues,
please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens its 5-year benchmark
0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl issue Wednesday for up to E4.0bln. The issue trades at
0.447% mid-yield and near rich level of 0.394%. This richness is explained by
election uncertainty in Italy and failure by US politicians to reach any deal on
the sequester. Whilst this issue isn't the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) into the
June Bobl futures contract, it does form part of the deliverability basket. This
is second top-up of this issue that was first sold on Jan 9, where the DFA then
allotted E4.086bln at an average yield 0.53% and a bid-to-cover ratio 1.8 times,
with the Buba retaining 18.3% of the sale. The last action on Feb 6, the DFA
alloted E3.269bln at average yield 0.68%, covered 1.9 times, with the Buba
retaining 18.3% of the sale. The average bid-to-cover ratio of the last 5
auctions is 1.86 times. This issue is due to be re-opened again in April for
E4.0bln before a new Apr 2018 Bobl is sold in May for up to E5.0bln. Auction
results are due after auction bidding close at 1030GMT.



EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Mar 06 EMU Q4 2nd estimate GDP data
- Mar 06 EU debt chiefs: Italy Cannata, Spain Morales, Dutch Wilders speak
- Mar 06 Merkel, Hollande, Necas, Orban, Fico joint press conference
- Mar 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Mar 07 Spain sells 2015-/2018-/2023 bonds for up to E5.0bln
- Mar 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.4bln
- Mar 09 Malta parliamentary election
- Mar 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Mar 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
- Mar 13 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Mar 14/15 European Council Summit
- Mar 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.685bln
- Mar 15 Spain T-bill redemption for E12.259bln
- Mar 15 First meeting of Italy Chamber & Senate (within 2-3 weeks of vote)
- Mar 18 Election of Presidents of each legislative chamber
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"

Bemowo

Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: Bemowo »

i czekamy
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.

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mazurek96
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: mazurek96 »

Gdyby kogoś złoto interesowało to warto przeczytac:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-0 ... ary-easing

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ForexTig3r
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: ForexTig3r »

06/03/2013 Środa 10:42
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/360143170

Kiwi 8400/8380 i spadek, wcześniej dolna banda kanału 8300

-- Dodano: 06 mar 2013, 09:08 --
Bemowo pisze:i czekamy
I czego się spodziewasz, mieliśmy ładny wzrost, 5 falowa struktura jednak zakończona, będzie zapewne Q3, więc spadek :?:
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
subsilver2 趋势线

overall

Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: overall »

Nie ma reguły. Gdy USA siegnely po drukarki za pierwszym razem dolar sie ladnie umocnil a za drugim euro wiec to dalej totolotek jak w przypadku danych :)

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ForexTig3r
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: ForexTig3r »

JaqueQ pisze:Uwaga na EJ. Właśnie próbuje przebić się przez R. Na M15 pinbar o breakoucie. Czyzby up???
EJ ma ciasno....

-- Dodano: 06 mar 2013, 09:19 --
Groszke pisze:a jak obstawiacie stopy w polsce? bedzie jakas reakcja rynku?
Będzie obniżka już przesądzone.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
subsilver2 趋势线

JaqueQ
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: JaqueQ »

ForexTig3r pisze: EJ ma ciasno....
Czyli wszyscy palce na spuscie :d

Do 11, jak zejdą dane PKB po rewizji, będziemy sie tak bujać góra-dół 20 pipsów. No chyba, że Lądek zapoda coś...
Ostatnio zmieniony 06 mar 2013, 09:41 przez JaqueQ, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.

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Re: DayTrading: Środa 6.03.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: niemiaszek »

CABLE: MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.5270 Medium offers ion approach
$1.5240/50 Medium offers
$1.5220/25 Strong offers/Stops
$1.5200 Tuesday Mar5 high (post svcs PMI)
$1.5180/85 Medium offers
$1.5156 Int.Day high Asia
$1.5114 **Current market rate 0808GMT Wednesday
$1.5108 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.5127/$1.5109 76.4% $1.5094-1.5156
$1.5100 Medium demand on approach
$1.5094 Tuesday Mar5 pullback low/Stops $1.5090
$1.5070/60 Medium demand
$1.5050 Strong demand
$1.5035/30 Medium demand
$1.5000 Strong demand/Pullback low react construct PMI Mar4
$1.4985/80 Medium demand/$1.4985 Fri Mar1-2013 low/Stops


EURO-STERLING: MNI Euro-sterling: Fundamental levels (orders, options,
technicals)
stg0.8720/25 Strong offers/stg0.8724 61.8% stg0.8815-0.8576
stg0.8695/700 Medium offers
stg0.8686 Fri Mar1 high
stg0.8660/65 Medium offers
stg0.8650 Medium offers
stg0.86355 Int.Day high Europe, Asia stg0.8633
stg0.8635 ***Current market rate 0728GMT Wednesday
stg0.8621 Int.Day low Asia
stg0.8589 Tues Mar5 low
stg0.8576 Tues Feb26 low (react to Italian election result)
stg0.8575/70 Strong demand/Stops
stg0.8555/50 Medium demand
stg0.8520 Medium demand
stg0.8505/00 Medium demand


EURO-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y123.48 21-day ma
Y123.22 Kijun line
Y122.10-20 Stops
Y122.05 Tenkan line
Y122.00 Strong offers
Y121.98 Int.Day high Europe, Asia Y121.89
Y121.76 ***Current market price 0822GMT Wednesday
Y121.49 Int.Day low Europe, Asia Y121.51
Y121.35/25 Medium demand
Y121.00 Medium demand
Y120.80 Medium demand
Y120.16/13 22 & 14 Jan highs
Y120.00 Strong demand, stops/55-day ma
Y119.41 38.2% of Y105.98-127.71


DOLLAR-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y94.50 Medium offers on approach
Y94.30/35 Strong offers
Y94.10 Stops
Y94.00 Strong offers/Stops
Y93.70/75 Medium offers
Y92.50/60 Medium offers/Y92.54 Mar5 high
Y93.38 Int.Day high Asia
Y93.30 ***Current mkt rate 0828GMT Wednesday
Y93.00 Int.Day low Asia
Y92.95/90 Medium demand
Y92.70 Minor demand/Stops
Y92.65/60 Medium demand/Large Stops
Y92.45/40 Medium demand
Y92.20/10 Strong demand
Y92.00 Medium demand


AUSSIE: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.0375/80 Medium offers
$1.0340/50 Medium offers offers
$1.0330 Medium offers/Stops
$1.0300/10 Option linked offers/Tech 38.2% $1.0599-1.0116/Stops
$1.0303 Int.Day high Asia
$1.0281 ***Current mkt rate 0734GMT Wednesday
$1.0252 Int.Day low Asia
$1.0220/15 Medium demand
$1.0200 Medium demand on approach
$1.0160/50 Medium demand
$1.0120/15 Medium demand
$1.0100-070 Exporter demand dotted between
$1.0050 Strong demand
$1.0020 Medium demand/Jun29 2012 low
$1.0000 Strong demand/Stops


US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few weeks:
- TBD Obama admin likely to release budget in early March
- Mar 06 Fed Plosser (non-voter) at Econ Dev Co of Lancaster County's Ann Mtg
- Mar 06 Feb ADP Natl Employment report, est +170k private payrolls at 0815ET
- Mar 06 Fed Fisher (non-voter) on TBTF to CPAC in Maryland at 0930ET
- Mar 06 Cap Markets and GSE Subcomm on FNMA and FHLMC role in finl crisis
- Mar 06 Treasury Cpn Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043, $1.25-$1.75b
- Mar 06 Beige Book at 1400ET
- Mar 06 Feb Treasury STRIPS at 1500ET
- Mar 06 Fed Fisher (non-voter) at World Affairs Council of San Antonio in TX
- Mar 07 Fed Gov Powell testimony to SBC on money laundering & bank secrecy
- Mar 07 Treasury Cpn Purch 12/31/2018-02/29/2020, $3-$3.75b
- Mar 07 UST announces 3/6m bills, 3-10-30y coupons at 1100ET
- Mar 07 Fed Q4 Flow of Funds at 1200ET
- Mar 07 Feb Treasury Auction Allotments at 1500ET - Mar 07 Fed releases results
from supervisory stress tests of largest banks at 1630ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"

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