DayTrading: Piątek 1.03.2013

[ForexTig3r]

Coś wyskalpowalem, ale mogło być lepiej...

01/03/2013 Piątek 10:42
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/532317042

[cajto]

Opcja ruchu korekcyjnego na Edku.
Na D1 mamy najpierw układ pro wzrostowy, następnie negację(?), tak naprawdę diabli wiedzą gdzie się dziś udamy. Gdyby jednak był to UP, to możemy dążyć do 1.328x jako punktu realizacji Nietoperza będącym również 38.2 od 1.37.

[molmomas]

i zjazd pod wejcie Europy ;D

-- Dodano: 01 mar 2013, 08:00 --

przy dobrym układzie danych możemy testować dzisiaj okolice 1.30

[handlare]

dobre, choc malo istotne info od naszych zachodnich sasiadow dot sprzedazy detalicznej.

Panowie, jak wynika z waszej obserwacji, czy eur/gbp jest silnie skorelowane z edkiem i kablem? czy pozycja w stosunku do dolara przeklada sie na ich wzajemny uklad? jak to wyglada w perspektywie ostatnich kilki miesiecy?
czy to trzeba indywidualnie rozpatrywac?

[rafmax]

dobre, choc malo istotne info od naszych zachodnich sasiadow dot sprzedazy detalicznej.

Panowie, jak wynika z waszej obserwacji, czy eur/gbp jest silnie skorelowane z edkiem i kablem? czy pozycja w stosunku do dolara przeklada sie na ich wzajemny uklad? jak to wyglada w perspektywie ostatnich kilki miesiecy?

ostatnimy czasy zero korelacji z edkiem odwrotna z kablem

[cajto]

handlare - jeśli interesują cie koleracje poszczególnych par walutowych to polecam:

http://pl.investing.com/forex-tools/kal ... acji-walut

[handlare]

dzieki cajto!

kurde, dalem ciala wczoraj z e/u, liczylem na wsrost w dluzszym terminie, na + mialem 130 pkt, zamknalem z 10 pkt profitem, ej na be kiedy 70 bylo na +, a kabel to porazka.

[pkubiu]

witam jeszcze dycham jak macie strategie na kabla bo 10 są dane?

[rafmax]

handlare - jeśli interesują cie koleracje poszczególnych par walutowych to polecam:

http://pl.investing.com/forex-tools/kal ... acji-walut

strona internetowa do sprawdzania korelacji?? hmmm znam prostsze sposoby

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EU: At 0700GMT, German January retail sales numbers are set for release.
The string of European February final PMI numbers start at 0813GMT, with the
release of Spanish numbers, followed at 0843GMT by Italy, 0848GMT by France,
0853GMT by Germany and 0858GMT by the overall eurozone numbers.
At 0900GMT, the Italian 2012 annual GDP numbers are set for release.
Eurozone data continues ate 1000GMT, with the release of the Italian flash HICP
number, eurozone HICP numbers and eurozone January unemployment data.

ECB: In their global rates weekly Barclays say they do "not expect any changes
in policy rates" at next weeks ECB meeting. However they see a higher chance of
a 25bps cut in the refinancing rate than compared to last month, "especially if
the ECB lowers both the growth and inflation outlooks again in its March update
of the macroeconomic forecast". At the press conference Barclays expect the ECB
president Draghi to "reiterate that a highly accommodative monetary policy
stance remains appropriate under the current circumstances."

BUNDS: The 200-day moving average on the German benchmark 10-year Bund comes in
at 1.4545%.



UK: Ahead of those releases, the UK sees the February Nationwide house price index
data will cross the wires.
There is more UK data set for release at 0930GT, when the Q1 Construction new
orders numbers are released, along with the BOE December money supply and
lending numbers.

UK: The UK Tories were unable to win a seat in a Parliamentary by-election, as
junior coalition partners LibDems held on to seat in Southern England. Further
bad news was seen for the Tories, as they were beaten into third place by the
UKIP party.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph says there has been a sharp drop in "cash" purchases at
the higher end of the London property market, as bank boiunses are lower this
season. The paper says the Vrussels ruling could also impact moving forward.

UK PRESS: The UK Government and the London Mayoral office will fight EU plans to
cap "banker bonuses," the Guardian says. As both Major Boris Johnson and 10,
Downing St launch broadsides at Brussels.

UK PRESS: EU "President" Herman Van Rompuy has warned UK OM Cameron that there
is no will or need to amend European treaties, denting plans by Cameron to put
renegotiated relations to an election in 2017 or later.



US/CANADA: US data gets underway ahead of the market open with the release of domestic
vehicle sales numbers.
Domestic-made light vehicle sales are expected to rise to a reading of 11.9 in
February, a second straight gain. Seasonal adjustment factors are less
accommodative in February than in January, but will still add to unadjusted
sales and will be a greater positive factor than in February 2012.
The min US releases are due at 1330GMT, with the release of the January Personal
Income and Expenditures data, along with the US Jan PCE Price Index.
Personal income is forecast to fall 2.3% in January, as payrolls rose 157,000,
hourly earnings rose 0.2%, and the average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours.
There should not be the same disruptions to income seen in the December report,
when firms accelerated some payments into December to take advantage of lower
taxes. PCE is expected to rise 0.2%, as retail sales rose 0.1% and were up 0.2%
excluding motor vehicle sales. The core price index, which has posted flat
readings in four of the last five months, is expected to rise 0.2%.
Canadian data is also expected at 1330GMT, with the release of the December real
GDP at basic prices and the Q4 GDP figures.
At 1350GMT, the US February Markit final PMI numbers will cross the wires,
followed at 1455GMT with the release of the February Consumer Sentiment numbers.
At 1500GMT, the US January Construction Spending numbers are set to hit the
screens. Spending is expected to rise 0.7% in January after surging 0.9% in
December. The pace of housing starts reversed some of its December spike,
suggesting that residential construction could retreat after jumping 2.2% in
December.
At 1500GMT, the February ISM Index numbers are set to be released. The index is
expected to fall very slightly to a reading of 53.0 in February from 53.1 in
January. Regional conditions were mixed in the month based on data released so
far, with the Empire State index moving above zero for the first time since
July, but the Philadelphia Fed index tumbling further into negative territory.
Lastly, overnight, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke speaks at a San Francisco
Fed research conference.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Thursday at $1.3056 after it had been pressed to
session lows of $1.3053 on the negative close on Wall Street. Rate picked up
demand into the Asian open, the initial buying lifting it into an early trade
range of $1.3060/70 before Tokyo entered the market and provided stronger bid
interest via euro-yen. Rate edged to an initial high of $1.3077, extending the
move to $1.3083 during the Asian afternoon. Rate was holding firm ahead of
Europe, currently around $1.3078. Asian traders have reported that demand in
place at $1.3040 suggested to be linked to the Mar12 $1.3000 strike buyer seen
Thursday. Overall traders in Asia described trade during their session as fairly
subdued, release of Chine PMI data causing only minor ripples as they were close
to expectations. Germany retail sales due up at 0700GMT will provide the early
interest, with EZ manufacturing PMI's to follow from 0813GMT (Spain) through to
EZ PMI at 0858GMT. EZ CPI and jobs data at 1000GMT, with LTRO1/2 repayment the
next interest at 1100GMT. Bids seen placed into $1.3050, stronger at $1.3040
with stops below, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.3030-00 with Asian
sovereign demand in this area noted in recent sessions. Offers $1.3095/00.

EURO-DOLLAR: Rate was pressed back to $1.3060 (76.4% $1.3053-84) in early
European trade, with rate getting a slight lift back as traders reacted to the
release of much stronger than expected Germany retail sales data. Initial react
saw rate push back up to $1.3070, with second wave demand taking it above but
recovery efforts continue to meet decent headwinds. Rate trades around $1.3063
at posting. Demand seen placed between $1.3055/50, a break to expose option
linked demand into $1.3040 (seen linked to Mar12 $1.3000 strikes that were
bought in Asia Thursday), with stronger demand noted from $1.3030 through to the
reported barrier at $1.3000, with Asian sovereign interest noted here in recent
sessions (recent low $1.3018). Decent sized stops are reported sub $1.3000.


CABLE: Closed in NY Thursday at $1.5159, the rate having pulled back from best
levels of $1.5222 to $1.5149, but it was noted that the rate attracted decent
demand into the move lower which kept it buoyed. Part of this sterling demand
was seen via euro-sterling, the euro losing general ground during the NY
session, with the cross pressed to session lows of stg0.8602. The cross closed
NY around stg0.8612, with trade through Asia contained within a tight
stg0.8610/20 range, leaving cable to track euro-dollar's recovery. Cable edged
up from an opening low of $1.5154, stepping its way to an eventual high of
$1.5186 ($1.5188 50% $1.5222-1.5153) ahead of the European open. Next resistance
seen at $1.5195/05, with stops now seen through $1.5205/10, which if triggered
to expose Thursday's highs at $1.5222. Support remains in place around
$1.5155/45, stops below $1.5140. UK manufacturing PMI due up at 0928GMT, ahead
of money supply data at 0930GMT. First day of the new month and possible that
euro-sterling month end demand could still be lurking.


YEN: Month end dollar buying saw dollar-yen pressured to a recovery high of
Y92.85 in NY Thursday, the rate then drifting off to Y92.65. Tokyo emerged with
sell interest into their open, but this early selling then met Tokyo fix
interest which lifted it back above Y92.60. Rate reversed to Y92.47 as rate took
direction from the early negative move in the Nikkei, taking its lead from the
close in Wall St. Nikkei recovery into the black saw rate push up to Y92.73
before it drifted lower through the Asian afternoon, the rate touching a low of
Y92.44 ahead of the European open. Euro-yen closed in NY at Y120.96 before it
recovered to Y121.27 in Asia. Rate drifted off to Y120.94 during the Asian
afternoon, in tandem with dollar-yen. Asian traders have noted middle eastern
demand emerging below Y121.00, but efforts to allow rate to build above Y121.00
seen meeting decent headwind supply into Europe.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Friday. The Nikkei 225
was higher by 47.02 points, or 0.41%, at 11606.38. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 8.83 points at 984.49. Market breadth
indicators saw 114 issue higher, 93 lower and 18 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.584 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3000(large), $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3220, $1.3245
* Dollar-yen; Y92.00(large), Y92.30, Y92.50(large), Y92.70
* Cable; $1.5200, $1.5250, $1.5255, $1.5285
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8680
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2250
* Aussie; $1.0200, $1.0230, $1.0275(large), $1.0300, $1.0350


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no eurozone sovereign bond issuance scheduled
Friday, which has now been completed for this week and totals E10.57bln vs
E26.71bln last week. As a recap, on Monday Italy tapped its zero coupon Dec 2014
CTZ issue for between E2.818bln and also linker issues 2.10% 2021 & 3.10% 2026
BTPei for combined size of E1.25bln. On Wednesday, Italy tapped its benchmark
5-year 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for E2.5bln and launched a new 10-year 4.50% May 2023
BTP for E4.0bln indicative size. In terms of reinvestment flows, where are no
redemption payments this week, with coupons from Italy E6.1bln, Greece E1.2bln,
Germany E0.9bln, France E0.8bln -- to leave net cash flow negative to the tune
of E1.6bln vs -E25.8bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues,
please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Looking ahead into next week, issuance in the eurozone is so
far scheduled from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and Spain -- expected to
come in around E17.65bln vs E10.57bln this week. Austria kicks off issuance on
Tuesday with tap of the 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB & 3.15% June 2044 RAGB issues for
combined size of E1.65bln. On Wednesday, Germany reopens its 5-year benchmark
0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl issue for up to E4.0bln. On Thursday, France conducts its
regular OAT auctions for expected size of up to E8.0bln -- AFT is due to
announce details this morning. Also on Thursday, Spain sells bonds for an
expected size of up to E4.0bln -- auction maturity details are due to be
announced today by Tesoro. On Friday, Belgium conducts its Optional Reverse
Inquiry (ORI) bond auction. However, the Belgian debt agency cancelled its last
ORI auction on Jan 11 and also nine of its last ORI auctions in 2012. In terms
of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption payments scheduled next week with
minor coupon payments from Belgium for E0.1bln -- leaves net cash flow negative
to the tune of E17.55bln. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see
Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.