cajto pisze:Szczerze podziwiam traderów grających w oparciu o fundamenty, dla mnie to czarna magia. Czasami trochę gorsze dane spychają kurs w przepaść, a zdecydowanie lepsze od oczekiwań skutkują szpilą i niewielką korektą.
Oczywiście są przypadki gdzie fundamenty są tak mocne, że z nimi się nie dyskutuje (JPY), ale do DT pozostaje AT, a AF jest wtedy papierkiem lakmusowym sentymentu na rynku.
Takie mam zdanie.
Draghi niedawno twierdził że kurs waluty ma odzwierciedlać stan gospodarki
-- Dodano: czw 28-02-2013, 7:49 --
ejek już na lotnisku
-- Dodano: czw 28-02-2013, 7:53 --
prognoza na dziś
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Od 5:45 spory spadek na edku o 200 pipów. Teraz żałuję że nie dałem wtedy zlecenia a to był w sumie pewniak ze zleci. Czuje że jeszcze muszę się wieele nauczyć.
pr7emo pisze:Draghi niedawno twierdził że kurs waluty ma odzwierciedlać stan gospodarki
To niemożliwe, większość światowej gospodarki opiera się na niezdrowych zasadach ( ten pożyczy mi, ja pożyczę temu, jak mi braknie to dodrukuję...itp).
Nikt nie zgodzi się na taką terapie szokową, wolą pompować trupa.
Gdyby tak powiedział w obecności Hu Jintao ten popatrzył by na niego jak na Teletubisia
pr7emo pisze:Draghi niedawno twierdził że kurs waluty ma odzwierciedlać stan gospodarki
To niemożliwe, większość światowej gospodarki opiera się na niezdrowych zasadach ( ten pożyczy mi, ja pożyczę temu, jak mi braknie to dodrukuję...itp).
Nikt nie zgodzi się na taką terapie szokową, wolą pompować trupa.
Gdyby tak powiedział w obecności Hu Jintao ten popatrzył by na niego jak na Teletubisia
na foreksie duża większość gra AT, słowa prezesa ECB nie zmienią nastawienia graczy
-- Dodano: czw 28-02-2013, 8:05 --
werbalne intencje mają większą moc od fundamentów
AT->werbalne intencje->fundamenty (w długim okresie mogą tworzyć trend)
klimokrates pisze:Zapomnijcie na chwile o waszym 1.28, o 1.29 też i zacznijcie liczyć do 5 a później alfabet A,B,C najlepiej ustawcie to sobie na tapetę.
Aha bym zapomniał, przecież jestem pan czepialski, browar dla Tego kto powie gdzie u kolegi tygrysa jest błąd.
Jesteś naszym Aptekarzem
A tak poza tym ja bym Fibo poprowadził od szczytu z 1.37 do ostatniego dna.
EU: Thursday's calendar gets underway with a string of German data. including the
0700GMT release of February flash HICP. 4Q wholesale sales and the January ILO
employment data.
At 0745GM,T, the French January PPI data and January consumer spending numbers
will be released.
Spanish data due at 0800GMT sees the release of February flash HICP and final
fourth quarter GDP data.
The official German February unemployment numbers are set for release at
0855GMT.
EMU data is set for release at 1000GMT, when the January final HICP numbers will
hit the screens.
At 1030GMT, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is set to deliver a speech on a
European banking union.
At 1500GMT, ECB Executive Board member and Chief Economist Peter Praet speech in
Brussels.
EUROZONE: In a report released earlier this morning, Moody's Investors Service
says the balance of macroeconomic, political and implementation risks as well as
the 'event' risks of further shocks to confidence remain firmly to the downside,
supporting its negative outlook for most euro area sovereign ratings. While the
introduction of OMT facility by the ECB has successfully reversed the rise in
sovereign debt yields for now, the potential for further shocks remains for
example with investors in Greece and Cyprus still exposed to heightening default
risk, Moody's says.
IRELAND: Irish FinMin Noonan tells the Times he is still hopeful the ESM will
offer help on Irish banking loans, despite some Northern European officials
saying the fund will not deal with "legacy issues."
GREECE: A report for the Troika says Greek tax and revenue collection efforts
are in "disarray" and the government is unable to move forward with reofrm,
eKathimerini says.
UK PRESS: UK retailer John Lewis continues to defy the gloom on the UK high
street, the Independent reports, noting the group is set to announce staff
bonuses in the region of 16% of annual salary.
UK PRESS: A survey by accountants PwC underlines the "carnage" on the UK high
street, the Times says, with the report noting a net 1800 store closures were
made by the big stores in 2012, compared to a net 174 closures in 2011.
US: The US calendar kicks off at 1330GMT, with the release of
Jobless Claims for the Feb 23 week and the second reading of the fourth quarter
GDP numbers.
The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 2,000 to 360,000 in
the February 23 holiday week after rising 20,000 in the previous week.
Fourth quarter GDP is expected to be revised up to a 0.5% rise from the 0.1%
decline in the advance estimate. Analysts expect the key factors to be stronger
capital spending and a narrower net export gap. The chain price index is
expected to be unrevised at +0.6%.
Canadian data is due, with the release of the January Raw material prices at
1330GMT and the January Industrial product prices at 1400GMT.
The February MNI Chicago Report will cross the wires at 1445GMT. The business
barometer is forecast to fall slightly to a reading of 54.8 in February from the
55.6 reading in January, itself a decent improvement from the December. Other
regional data already have been mixed.
The US Natural Gas Storage data for the Feb 22 week are set for release at
1530GMT, followed at 1600GMT by the release of the February Kansas City Fed
Production data.
At 1900GMT, the February Agriculture Prices will be released, followed by the
late release of Money Supply (M2) for the Feb 18 period at 2130GMT.
DOLLAR: Raghav Subbarao and Aroop Chatterjee of Barclays note that equity
markets sold off in February, in the wake of an Italian election that led to
"fears of political paralysis in the euro area's third largest economy and
reminded markets of the political risks facing the euro area." European and UK
stocks were hardest hit and were notable underperformers this month, weighed
largely by a softer euro and cable. US stocks also saw selling ahead of the
sequester deadline (to begin March 1). "Given the sell-offs in European and UK
markets, our month-end rebalancing signals imply weak EUR buying against the USD
and a neutral signal for GBP/USD," they say. "For the other crosses, we see weak
USD buying signals, except for USD/CAD, which also has a neutral signal," they
add
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.3133 after rate had extended its
recovery through the session to an eventual high of $1.3148, the move able to
brush aside ECB Draghi comments that the ECB is 'far' from exiting stimulus.
This recovery extended into early Asia, the continued climb aided by early
demand for yen pairs, with euro-yen taking the rate through $1.3150, reported
stops above triggered which took rate on to $1.3163. The rise stalled ahead of
reported offers into $1.3165, the counter aided as euro-yen met supply post fix,
though corrective pullbacks met demand around $1.3140. Fresh demand emerged into
the dip allowing rate to settled around $1.3150 ahead of the European open. Last
day of the month with models suggesting demand to be seen for euro-dollar at the
fixes. Offers remain in place into $1.3165 with stops noted above through to
$1.3185. A break here expected to meet stiffer resistance into $1.3200. Support
remains into $1.3140/30 with stops below, a break to open a deeper move toward
$1.3115/00. Asian traders note that there has been decent demand shown overnight
for Mar12 1.3000 strikes.
CABLE: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.5161 after it had recovered through the
earlier part of the session off Asian lows of $1.5080 to $1.5188, dropped back
to $1.5120 before leveraged and bank name demand allowed it to correct higher
into the close. This late recovery extended into early Asia, though the move up
was seen less steep that the recovery in euro-dollar. However, cable traded to
an overnight high of $1.5178 before it settled between $1.5160/70 ahead of
Europe. Euro-sterling opened Asia around stg0.8661 before it edged to highs of
stg0.8677, settling for the balance of the session between stg0.8665/75. End
month demand for the cross expected to keep this pair buoyed, and in turn may
place a counter against potential cable gains. Cross resistance seen into
stg0.8680, more at stg0.8695/00 with stops above. Support stg0.8660, stronger
between stg0.8630/20. A light data calendar for the UK today so outside
influences to drive, with fixes to also be watched.
YEN: Yen pairs opened the Asian session to decent demand, dollar-yen able to
resume its recovery seen through Wednesday trade, that had seen it move up from
Y91.14 to Y92.44 before drifting off to Y92.14 into the close, the rate touching
an extended high of Y92.67 into the Tokyo fix. Euro-yen had seen a similar
recovery Wednesday, moving up from Y119.22 to Y121.46, closing NY around
Y121.20, before it too resumed its upside correction into the Tokyo fix,
touching a high of Y121.83. Selling emerged post fix, month end related, to
press rates lower, dollar-yen to Y92.18, euro-yen to Y121.12 before they both
recovered ahead of Europe to Y92.40/Y121.50. The Japanese government have
nominated ADB Kuroda to be the next BOJ Governor, this announcement had been
expected and caused little to no reaction. Iwata and Nakaso have also been
nominated as deputy governors. The only hurdle for these nominees will be in the
Japanese upper house where the government does not hold a majority.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Thursday. The Nikkei 225
was higher by 305.39 points, or 2.71%, at 11559.36. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 21.00 points at 974.72. Market breadth
indicators saw 210 issue higher, 9 lower and 6 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.75 bn shares.
BOJ: From speech in Yokohama City, south of Tokyo, by BOJ board member Takahide
Kiuchi:
-- BOJ Kiuchi: Positive impact of Forex, stock moves to emerge gradually
-- BOJ Kiuchi: Downside risk to Japan economy somewhat high
-- BOJ Kiuchi sees long-term uncertainty over Japan exports
-- BOJ Kiuchi: Watch Japan trade deficit impact on markets
-- BOJ Kiuchi: Overseas econ to recover but watch sustainability
-- BOJ Kiuchi: U.S. economy likely to gain momentum in 2H 2013
-- BOJ Kiuchi: 2% CPI target far above sustainable prices
-- BOJ Kiuchi: Limited impact of 2% target on inflation expects
-- BOJ Kiuchi: Must achieve 1% price rise for now
-- BOJ Kiuchi: Buying longer JGBs may raise monetization concern
-- BOJ Kiuchi repeats: Not easy to hit 2% price target, too high
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no eurozone sovereign bond issuance scheduled
Thursday, which has now been completed for this week and totals E10.07bln vs
E26.71bln last week. As a recap, on Monday Italy tapped its zero coupon Dec 2014
CTZ issue for between E2.818bln and also linker issues 2.10% 2021 & 3.10% 2026
BTPei for combined size of E1.25bln. On Wednesday, Italy tapped its benchmark
5-year 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for E2.5bln and launched a new 10-year 4.50% May 2023
BTP for E4.0bln indicative size. In terms of reinvestment flows, where are no
redemption payments this week, with coupons from Italy E6.1bln, Greece E1.2bln,
Germany E0.9bln, France E0.8bln -- to leave net cash flow negative to the tune
of E1.1bln vs -E25.8bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues,
please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Feb 28 EU Barroso meets Ireland PM Kenny
- Feb 28 EU Rehn, Van Rompuy at Policy Network annual EU conference
- Feb 28 German Feb unemployment data
- Feb 28 Spain Q4 final GDP data
- Feb 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.183bln
- Mar 01 Eurozone Jan unemployment data
- Mar 01 ECB announces repayment of LTRO allotments
- Mar 04 Eurogroup meeting
- Mar 05 ECOFIN meeting
- Mar 05 ESM bill auction
- Mar 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Mar 07 Spain sells Bono bonds
- Mar 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.4bln
- Mar 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Mar 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Feb 28 Q4 2012 GDP (2nd rev), est +0.5% at 0830ET
- Feb 28 CFTC Gensler on LIBOR at SIFMA in NY at 0830ET
- Feb 28 MNI Chicago Rpt (Chi PMI) est 55 at 0945ET
- Feb 28 UST announces 3/6m, 52 wk bills at 1100ET
- Feb 28 NY Fed on Q4 household debt and credit at 1100ET
- Feb 28 US Treasury Sec Wolin chairs FSOC meeting
- Feb 28 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Feb 28 Fed Gov. Raskin at Atlanta Fed's Banking Outlook Conf at 1230ET
- Feb 28 Fed releases Mar size, daily schedule of Fed outright buy ops in Tsys
- Feb 28 Money Supply (M2) at 1630 ET
- Feb 28 Fed Evans (voter) at CFA Society of Iowa in Des Moines at 2000ET
- TBD Obama admin likely to release budget in late Feb/early Mar, possibly Mar 4
- Mar 01 Deadline for fiscal agreement or sequestration (automatic spending
cuts)
- Mar 01 Fed Chair Bernanke at a San Francisco Fed research conf at 2200ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
roberttheus pisze:niestety na h1 jest dość mocny sygnał SELL ale mogą go zanegować jeszcze się wstrzymam
spokojnie spokojnie Panowie strefa sell dla edzia to 1,3165-1,3120 i tam trzeba szukac swej okazji. chcociaz patrzac na H4 to nikt mu nie zabroni isc nawet na 1,3270
