DayTrading: Środa 27.02.2013

[JaqueQ]

Kabel dojechal do dolnej bandy kanału spadkowego w którym znajduje się od lipca 2009.. Prosze zwrocic uwagę, ze wspomniany kanał ogranicza dość skutecznie ruch kabla poza ramy przez niego wyznaczone. W ciągu 3,5 roku mielismy tylko 3 PB poza LT. Poziom 1.495 jest zarówno S/R jak i wyznacza wspomnianą bandę. Silna konfluencja więc nie sądze abysmy dzis przebili ten poziom. Natomiast moze on się stac dosc silnym S/R na najblizsze dni. Na W1 jest w trakcie tworzenia SG co moze zapowiadac duze spadki w najblizszych tygodniach. Najblizsze S/R to: 1.5070, 1.49550, 1.4645 i 1.4425

[cugan]

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: Wednesday sees another full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic,
starting with the release of the German January import prices at 0700GMT. At
0710GMT, the German March GfK consumer climate numbers will be released. This
will be followed by the release of the French Feb consumer confidence numbers at
0745GMT. At 0830GMT, the ECB's Chief Economist Peter Praet is slated to give a
speech in Frankfurt. Italy is back in focus at 0900GMT, with the release of the
February ISTAT business survey. Also at 0900GMT, the ECB releases the January M3
data.

ITALY: The inconclusive outcome of parliamentary elections in Italy is
credit-negative for the Italian sovereign given that it raises the possibility
of new elections, thereby potentially prolonging the country's political
uncertainty but this is consistent with Baa2 sovereign rating and the negative
rating outlook assigned in July 2012, Moody's Investors Service says in a
report. Given Italy's systemic importance to the euro area, the elections have
implications well beyond Italy and are, indirectly, credit-negative for other
"pressured euro area sovereigns," Moody's says. It also added, "Should Italy's
access to public debt markets become constrained and the country were to require
external assistance, then Italy's sovereign rating could transition to
substantially lower rating levels." Note S&P this morning said Italy's election
results have no immediate implication for Italy's rating (BBB+, negative).

ITALY: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services late Tuesday said that the
Italian general election results have no immediate implications for Italy
sovereign ratings (unsolicited, BBB+/Negative/A-2). "The results point to a
center-left majority in the lower house, but no clear majority in the Senate.
Negotiations to form a new government are likely to last about one month. We
believe the policy choices of the next government, once it is mandated by
Italian President Giorgio Napolitano, will be a key factor for Italy's sovereign
creditworthiness. In light of the significant policy differences between the
largest parties, uncertainties on the direction of policy remain numerous", said
S&P. "current base-case expectation is that regardless of the government's
composition, the fiscal consolidation will not deviate from the current path,
given Italy's high stock of public-sector debt, estimated at 127% of GDP as of
year-end 2012", added S&P.


ITALY: PORTFOLIOS: Inconclusive election results in Italy and subsequent
concerns about the commitment to fiscal consolidation have brought back euro
zone bond market volatility, which is why AGF Investments Fixed Income Portfolio
Manager Jean Charbonneau exited the country in a tactical move last week,
"hoping to re-enter at much more attractive levels."

GREECE: Eight out of ten Greek who have taken out personal loans are now having
trouble meeting repayments, eKathimerini reports.



UK PRESS: The FT notes UK market borrowing rates fell in the previous session,
as concerns over the eurozone trump the UK downgrade news.

UK PRESS: The Independent reports that UK PM Cameron and Chancellor Osborne have
chided fellow Cabinet members to boost efforts to increase UK growth.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph picks up on a report in the latest Forbes magazine
report thatnotes the globe's top forty hedge fund managers earned a reported
$16.7 bln in 2012.

UK PRESS: The UK must keep faith with its austerity programme, EU Economic
Affaires Commissioner Olli Rehn says, the Times reports, as any diversion would
likely push UK borrowing rates higher.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3063, after rate had seen lows of $1.3037, with
moves through Fed Bernanke's testimony mainly driven by euro-yen reaction. The
recovery extended to $1.3070 into Asia only to get pressed down to $1.3042 post
Tokyo fix as euro-yen sellers emerged. Fresh demand cushioned the base and
allowed rate to recover through the early high, pushing on to an overnight high
of $1.3074. Momentum faded on approach to $1.3080, the rate then drifting off to
$1.3052 but bounced back to $1.3070 ahead of Europe as Asian traders reacted to
Italian press reports suggesting Grillo had softened his stance and was looking
at coalition prospects. Germany Import/export prices along with Germany GfK due
up at 0700GMT with EZ M3 due at 0900GMT. EZ confidence indicators then due at
1000GMT, along with the Italian bond auction (traders expect domestic demand to
support this). US durable goods data follows at 1330GMT, then US housing data at
1500GMT. Asian traders report demand placed from $1.3030 through to $1.3000,
noting interest from at least two Asian sovereign names, but stops also mixed in
below $1.3010. CTA stops mentioned through $1.2990/85. Resistance seen at
$1.3070/80, $1.3100 ahead of stronger interest at $1.3120/25.

EURO-DOLLAR: Back to retest early Europe highs at $1.3091, extends topside to
$1.3093, but reported offers between $1.3090/95 again seen providing a decent
hurdle versus further upside gains. Further offers seen around $1.3100/05, a
break to expose Tuesday's highs at $1.3123, with offers noted between $1.3125
($1.3125 100-dma). Rate currently trades around $1.3090. Main demand seen coming
viia crosses, but traders continue to suggest that the preferred trade is to
fade this early rise, only changing tack on a break of $1.3150.


CABLE: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.5126 after pulling back from a late recovery
high of $1.5156, seen after it corrected off session lows of $1.5112. Rate
initially tracked euro-dollar higher into early Asia, the rate posting highs of
$1.5137 before turning lower post fix, meeting demand ahead of $1.5100 which
cushioned the base through the early part of the Asian afternoon. Fresh selling
emerged ahead of Europe, the supply triggering stops sub $1.5100 that took it to
lows of $1.5080, but demand placed between $1.5080/70 (recent low $1.5073 Feb25,
Asia reaction to Moody's UK downgrade) supported, though recovery efforts
remained below $1.5100 ahead of the European open. Euro-sterling, which had seen
Italian election react lows of stg0.8576 Wednesday morning recovered through
Tuesday trade, the move up reportedly driven by end month demand. This recovery
extended through Asia, pushing to stg0.8660/65 ahead of Europe (stg0.8667 38.2%
stg0.8815-0.8576; stg0.8696 50%). BOE Bean due to speak at 0920GMT ahead of Q4
GDP first revision at 09030GMT. Cable demand remains at $1.5080/70 ahead of
$1.5050 option barrier. Resistance now seen initially into $1.5100 ahead of
$1.5115/20 and $1.5140/50.


YEN: A whippy session for euro-yen through the Fed Bernanke testimony Tuesday,
the rate dropping from around Y121.05 initial react highs to Y118.98 before
recovering into the close to Y120.18. This recovery extended to Y120.53 ahead of
the Tokyo fix, as Japanese importers and investors provided the main demand.
Post fix and rate reversed tack, dropping back to Y119.52, recovered to Y120.35
before settling between Y119.85/120.05 into Europe. Dollar-yen saw similar swing
moves Tuesday, spiked to Y92.40 before dropping back to Y91.13, recovering to
Y92.10 ahead of the close. This recovery extended to Y92.27 into the Tokyo fix
before dropping back to Y91.63. Rate made an Asian afternoon recovery to Y92.10
before settling back between Y91.70/80 into Europe. Fed Bernanke second part of
his testimony at 1500GMT, no change in text but Q&A could throw up some
different interpretations. Traders report dollar-yen demand from Y91.60,
trailing to stronger interest into Y91.00 and into Monday's low of Y90.88.
Japanese sources mentioned Tuesday that the candidate for BOJ Governor will be
announced Thursday, which could provide for another round of yen softening and
could place large barrier interest at Y95.00 back into the line of fire.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Wednesday, as dollar-yen
traded lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 144.84 points, or 1.27%, at 11253.97.
Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 12.05 points at 954.72.
Market breadth indicators saw 60 issue higher, 142 lower and 17 unchanged.
Preliminary volume stood at 1.68 bn shares.


GOLD: India's Economic Survey 2012-13 published today is raising a lot of
concern on gold demand (import) because of the effect it has on the current
account deficit and balance of payments. The survey says inflation is the key
because households continue to see gold as attractive investment avenues. The
survey notes raising exports at the present juncture is proving a more difficult
task given the slow global recovery, so more focus is on restraining imports.
The report notes composition of gold has seen a steady movement towards
non-jewellery items in recent years which means rising demand for pure
investment predominantly in the urban and semi-urban areas of India. "Given
soaring energy and transportation needs, since there seems to be little we can
do to temper oil imports, gold is the component that needs to be contained to
bring the CAD back to a comfort zone," the survey says. The government has
recently taken steps to discourage gold imports but it is likely that more will
be done given the focus is on reducing current account deficit.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3110, $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3400
* Dollar-yen; Y92.45, Y92.50, Y93.00, Y93.55, Y94.50
* Euro-yen; Y124.50, Y125.00
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9275
* Aussie; $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0285, $1.0290, $1.0300


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E18.172bln allocated by Germany, France, and Italy compared
to E16.389bln allotted last week. To recap, on Monday Germany sold E1.939bln at
average yield 0.0353%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.792 3-month BTF at
average yield 0.012%, E1.897bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.041% and
E1.794bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.121%. On Tuesday Italy sold E8.75bln
6-month BOT at average yield 1.237%. T-bill issuance is expected to fall
slightly next week with plans from Netherlands, France, Greece, Belgium and ESM,
expected to total E16.0bln.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Attention turns to Italy month-end auctions Wednesday, where
the Dipartimento del Tesosro taps its benchmark 5-year 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for
between E1.75bln-E2.5bln and launches a new 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for
between E3.0bln-E4.0bln indicative size. Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the
eurozone this week is expected to fall to around E10.07bln vs E26.71bln sold
this week. As a recap, on Monday Italy tapped its zero coupon Dec 2014 CTZ issue
for between E2.818bln and also linker issues 2.10% 2021 & 3.10% 2026 BTPei for
combined size of E1.25bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, where are no
redemption payments due next week, with coupons from Italy E6.1bln, Greece
E1.2bln, Germany E0.9bln, France E0.8bln -- leaves net cash flow negative to the
tune of E1.1bln vs -E25.8bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues,
please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.


ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento del Tesosro taps its benchmark
5-year 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for between E1.75bln-E2.5bln and launches a new
10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for between E3.0bln-E4.0bln indicative size. The
auction is seen as the first litmus test in the bond market in the wake of the
parliamentary election result. Moody's last night warned that the inconclusive
outcome of elections is credit-negative. Italian yields have been rising since
the election results, which now questions any chances of ECB's OMT, which is
likely to come with conditionality in the absence of a permanent stable
government. That said, the E6.1bln worth of coupon payments from Italy this week
is seen underpinning demand and risk is that the auctions will be heavily
covered by domestic accounts. For comparison purposes, the 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP
trades at 3.676% mid-yield and was last sold on Jan 30 for E3.0bln at average
yield of 2.94% and then covered 1.3 times. The new 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP
trades at 5.025% in the grey-market. The old 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP was last sold on
Jan 30 for E3.5bln at average yield of 4.17% and covered 1.32 times. Results are
due around 1010GMT.

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Feb 27 Italy taps 5-year BTP & sells new 10-year BTP for up to E6.5bln
- Feb 27 ECB 3-year LTRO repayment (E1.744bln 1st LTRO & E61.09bln 2nd LTRO)
- Feb 27 EMU economic/business climate index
- Feb 27 ECB Draghi speaks in Munich
- Feb 28 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Feb 28 German Feb unemployment data
- Feb 28 Spain Q4 final GDP data
- Feb 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.183bln
- Mar 01 Eurozone Jan unemployment data
- Mar 01 ECB announces repayment of LTRO allotments
- Mar 04 Eurogroup meeting
- Mar 05 ECOFIN meeting
- Mar 05 ESM bill auction
- Mar 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Mar 07 Spain sells Bono bonds

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few weeks:
- Feb 27 Bernanke to give testimony (same as on 2/26) to House Commtee w/ Q&A
- Feb 27 Fed Fisher (non-voter) at Columbia Univ in NY at 1630ET
- Feb 27 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/28/2017-11/15/2017 $4.25-$5.25bn
- Feb 27 UST auctions $29BN 7y at 1300ET
- Feb 28 Q4 2012 GDP (2nd rev), est +0.5% at 0830ET
- Feb 28 UST announces 3/6m, 52 wk bills at 1100ET
- Feb 28 NY Fed on Q4 household debt and credit at 1100ET
- Feb 28 US Treasury Sec Wolin chairs FSOC meeting
- Feb 28 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Feb 28 Fed Gov. Raskin at Atlanta Fed's Banking Outlook Conf at 1230ET
- Feb 28 Fed releases Mar size, daily schedule of Fed outright buy ops
- Feb 28 Money Supply (M2) at 1630 ET
- Feb 28 Fed Evans (voter) at CFA Society of Iowa in Des Moines at 2000ET
- TBD Obama admin likely to release budget in late Feb/early Mar
- Mar 01 Deadline for fiscal agreement/sequestration (automatic spending cuts)

[handlare]

Z tym PB na kablu to można się nie doczekać, tak mi się coś widzi. Patrząc na W1 właśnie jesteśmy po takim PB na poziomie bliskim minimom, przed nami ważne dane, przed nami przepaść Mogą się konsolidować na 30p a potem runąć w 5min o ponad 100p, standardowo jak na tej parze.

wlasnie mielismy do czynienia z PB 5100

[niemiaszek]

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3319 Mon Feb25 high
$1.3150 Medium offers on approach/Stops
$1.3133 Tech 38.2% $1.3319-1.3018
$1.3120/25 Medium offers/$1.3125 100-dma
$1.3100/05 Medium offers/$1.3103 76.4% $1.3123-1.3037
$1.3095 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3080
$1.3082 ***Current mkt rate 0808GMT Wednesday
$1.3041 Int.Day low Asia (NY low Tuesday Feb26 $1.3037)
$1.3030 Strong demand, said to stretch to $1.3000, Asian sovereigns
$1.3018 Tues Feb26 low
$1.3010 CTA Stops begin
$1.2998 2013 low Jan4
$1.2990/85 Stops
$1.2980 Medium demand
$1.2965/55 Medium demand

[cajto]

Z tym PB na kablu to można się nie doczekać, tak mi się coś widzi. Patrząc na W1 właśnie jesteśmy po takim PB na poziomie bliskim minimom, przed nami ważne dane, przed nami przepaść Mogą się konsolidować na 30p a potem runąć w 5min o ponad 100p, standardowo jak na tej parze.

wlasnie mielismy do czynienia z PB 5100

Ciekawie to wygląda - jest podwójne dno, tylko czy dane nie zepchną kabla na nowe minima?

[niemiaszek]

CABLE: MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.5250/60 Medium offers
$1.5230/35 Medium offers
$1.5220 Strong offers on approach
$1.5217-19 Area of recovery highs Tues Feb26
$1.5180/85 Strong offers/ $1.5186 76.4% $1.5219-1.5080
$1.5140/50 Medium offers
$1.5137 Int.Day high Asia
$1.5115/20 Minor offers
$1.5112 **Current market rate 0825GMT Wednesday
$1.5080 Int.Day low Asia
$1.5080/70 Strong demand/$1.5073 Mon Feb25 low/Stops
$1.5050 Strong demand on approach/Option barrier
$1.5010/00 Strong demand/$1.5000 Option barrier/Stops
$1.4980 Medium demand/Stops

[cajto]

Niemiaszku, możesz wrzucić techniczną rozpiskę Ejamna jeśli takową posiadasz, dziś raczej wybicie z konsoli więc...
Z góry dzięki.

[JaqueQ]

Z tym PB na kablu to można się nie doczekać, tak mi się coś widzi. Patrząc na W1 właśnie jesteśmy po takim PB na poziomie bliskim minimom, przed nami ważne dane, przed nami przepaść Mogą się konsolidować na 30p a potem runąć w 5min o ponad 100p, standardowo jak na tej parze.

wlasnie mielismy do czynienia z PB 5100

Ciekawie to wygląda - jest podwójne dno, tylko czy dane nie zepchną kabla na nowe minima?

Z tą bandą cwaniaków to nic nie wiadomo jak można łatwo zarobić 100p, to czemu jeszcze łatwiej nie zarobić 250??? Jak dla mnie to mogą dziś podbić do 1.514 i zrzucic go po odczytach na 5070 albo i nizej...

[nubi1980]

coraz bardziej nerwowo się robi na kablu. Jak dane się okażą poniżej oczekiwań to błyskawicznie 1,4850 !