DayTrading: Wtorek 26.02.2013

[molmomas]

pomimo wyprzedania rynku odczuwa się siłę spadków, które miały miejsce wczoraj,
myślę że na dziś naszym celem jest poziom 1.30. z historyczno-psychologicznego punktu widzenia bardzo silne wsparcie, i by je przełamać musiały by pojawić się bardzo ciekawe dane z USA dzisiejszym popołudniem.
Jeżeli dane bedą w okolicach oczekiwań bądź lepsze to możemy się spodziewać zjazdu w okolice 1.2970. a po przełamaniu powyższego wsparcia celem mógłby być poziom 1.29-1.2870. (poniżej już jest 1.27 ale nie wydaje mi się byśmy mogli tam dotrzeć, chyba że agencje ratingowe albo inne sprawy związane ze strefą euro pojawiły by sie na tapecie).

Tak to widzę.
Pozdrawiam

[Nowy123]

o 16 00 Bernanke w kongeresie bedzie sie spowiadal

-- Dodano: wt 26-02-2013, 9:18 --

i od Marca automatyczne Ciecia w USa wchodza i jakos nie widac porozumienia hmm

[molmomas]

no kurde, jak mogłem tego nie ująć
sorki, mój błąd
jeżeli będzie mówił o ewentualnym zakończeniu Qe no to możemy miec bardzo ciekawy zjazd w dół.

[Mpapiez]

Moim zdaniem kontynuacja spadków, z powodu wyborów we Włoszech.

Z jednym ALE. Te 2 wsparcia na czerwono są decydujące. Jak puści to drugie, to można w ciemno S ładować , jak odreaguje od tego miejsca, to w ciemno L.

Dziś raczej trading łatwy będzie .

[Nowy123]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-2 ... rned-about

[cugan]

[niemiaszek]

Hello

EU/UK/US: There is a full calendar Tuesday, with both data and central bank speakers to
the fore.

However, comments from Italian officials in the wake of the deadlocked election
are also likely to be closely parsed.

At some stage, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is slated to meet US Secretary of
State John Kerry and Riksbank Gov. Stefan Ingves is to speak at the Economist
Future of Banking Summit, in Paris.

Early doors, BOE Governor Mervyn King is set to give a speech in Japan.

Data starts at 0745GMT, with the release of French January housing
starts/permits.

At 0830GMT, Sweden's Riksbank release their monetary policy minutes.

More from the BOE at 1000GMT, when MPC members Charlie Bean, Paul Tucker, David
Miles Ian McCafferty appear before the TSC Hearing on the February Inflation
Report.

UK data at 1100GMT sees the release of the CBI's February Quarterly Distributive
Trades numbers.

The US calendar gets underway at 1245GMT, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman
Store Sales for the Feb 23 week. At 1330GMT, Canadian December Payroll and
employment numbers are released.

The Redbook Average for the Feb 23 week are due at 1355GMT.

Further US data at 1400GMT sees the release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller
Index and the December FHFA Home Price Index.

Back on the Continent, at 1430GMT, European Central Bank Governing Council
member Luis Linde is to speak at the Economist Future of Banking Summit.

At 1430GMT, February's Dallas Fed Services Survey will be released.

There is a host of US data at 1500GMT, with the release of January New Home
Sales, the February Richmond Fed Mfg Index, the February Consumer Confidence
data and the January BLS Mass Layoffs numbers.

New home sales are expected to rise to a 380,000 annual rate in January after
falling 7.3% in December. Despite that setback, the trend of new home sales, and
the housing market as a whole, remains on an upward path.

The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence is expected to rise to a
reading of 62.0 in February after falling in January to its lowest level in over
a year. The preliminary Michigan Sentiment index rose sharply from its January
level. Concern about fiscal issues such as the sequester due March 1 are likely
weighing on confidence, though it is not apparent in the sentiment data.

At 1700GMT, the French January registered jobseekers numbers will be released.

The last calendar release sees BOE MPC member Fisher giving a speech in London.


ITALY: The high political uncertainty that is likely to persist in the coming
period will likely have a negative impact on real and financial investment
decisions in Italy, Citigroup analysts wrote in a note following Italy's
election. "The over-performance by Grillo and under-performance by Monti are
clear signals, in our view, of the anti-austerity message conveyed by voters,
which will make further fiscal consolidation efforts very difficult to
implement. The absence of cohesive political leadership may also make Eurozone
crisis management more complicated. All this is likely to cause wider and more
volatile government bond spreads in the coming weeks/months. Moreover, pressure
on Rome is likely to result in some form of external financial assistance, but
unsettled politics may significantly delay any agreement in this respect."

ITALY: To recap the Italian election, it appears that the centre-left coalition
has -just - emerged as the largest group in the lower house, edging out the
centre right by less that 0.5% points. However, even with the backing of the
Monti group, the centre left cannot cobble together an overall majority.
Berlusconi also appears shy of being able to hold a majority coalition of any
sort in either the upper of lower house. The biggest upset appears to have been
the Five Star party of Beppe Grillo emerging as the largest single party with
over 25% of the vote in the lower house election.

ITALY: Nomura analysts says they judge the formation of a coalition in Italy
more likely than new elections, especially if market pressure on Italian
sovereign bond yields is to come back (something they think is quite likely).
The absence of government in the short term makes OMT eligibility more
complicated as shown in previous cases, they say, adding, the ECB might require
stepping up its rhetoric and hint at the availability of support in case of need
to prevent markets from falling back into a bad equilibrium.

BUNDS: Traders are calling Mar Bunds up 90-/95 ticks at the open Tuesday amid
political instability in Italy. Preliminary results point to a hung parliament
and a political stalemate that could lead to another round of elections.

ITALY: Italy 15-year yield hits 5.00% level -- highest since Dec 10.

SPAIN: Spain 10-year yield hits 5.50% -- highest level since Dec 10.


BOE: Bank of England Governor Mervyn King speaks on Recovery and Rebalancing in
Industrialized Economies at Japanese Bankers Association meeting in Tokyo:
-- BOE King: Need more sustainable pattern of world demand
-- BOE King: Inflation expectations remain anchored
-- BOE King: Near-term outlook in euro area continues to be weak
-- BOE King: Cen banks can't deal with debt, structural problems
-- BOE King: Cen banks can achieve long-term price stability
-- BOE King: Long-term real interest rates must return to normal
-- BOE King: Exchange rates have become less and less flexible
-- BOE King: As G7 agrees, no country should intervene or target to push up or
down its currency
-- BOE King: G20 emerging economies prefer stronger US econ than a combination
of weaker US growth, slightly stronger dollar

UK PRESS: The latest ComRes poll for the Independent shows Labour maintaining a
healthy lead over the Conservatives. Labour are on 42%, with the Tories on 31%.
LibDems have slipped into fourth place nationally, a point behind UKIP.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3077, after rate had been pressured off session
highs of $1.3319 to $1.3048 on reaction to the Italian election results. Risk
positions were hit hard as the exit polls predicted a hung parliament, with
Berlusconi performing well in the Senate vote. the three way split has caused
risk aversion ripples through stock markets with this tone restricting recovery
efforts in the euro overnight. Euro-dollar touched an early low at $1.3053
before picking up light demand which, in the thin conditions, allowed rate to
edge back above $1.3070 before stronger, private investor demand lifted rate on
to $1.3089. Rate settled above $1.3080 in mid Asian trading before fresh sell
interest emerged into the afternoon which punched it down to an extended low of
$1.3039. Rate had recovered back above $1.3060 into early Europe. Demand
reported from that traded low through to $1.3000, with European corporate
interest waiting below the figure. Resistance seen from $1.3090 through to
$1.3105, more at $1.3120. A light data calendar in the EZ today, though a few
speakers noted on the card. Apart from continued fallout from the Italian
election, key interest seen in Fed Bernanke's semi-annual testimony at 1500GMT.

EURO-DOLLAR: Retains a heavy feel, the rate making a show under the Asian base
of $1.3039, touching $1.3037. Recovery efforts so far remain shallow and seen
keeping focus on the downside. Asian traders reported demand scattered down to
$1.3000, adding that European corporates have demand interest in any moves below
$1.3000. Rate currently trades around $1.3042.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3319 Mon Feb25 high
$1.3120/25 Medium offers
$1.3100 Medium offers
$1.3089 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3070 Medium offers
$1.3025 ***Current mkt rate 0726GMT Tuesday
$1.3018 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3039 (NY Mon $1.3047)
$1.3020/00 Medium demand scattered between
$1.2998 2013 low Jan4/Stops
$1.2980/70 Medium demand
$1.2950 Medium demand
$1.2910/00 Medium demand/$1.2910 76.4% $1.2662-1.3711/Stops
$1.2880/75 Medium demand/Stops $1.2875/70
$1.2850 Medium demand on approach/Large stops



CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5167 after rate had been pressured back up to $1.5200,
from an earlier Asian low of $1.5073, as sterling's recovery from its Moody's
credit rating cut react lows gained a boost on the back of the outcome in the
Italian election. Euro-sterling, which had seen highs during Monday trade of
stg0.8815, was knocked back down to stg0.8603 as risk aversion was triggered on
the three way split in the Italian vote. A possible coalition of the centre left
not seen sustainable and has caused a sharp pullback in global stock markets,
the vote against austerity to possibly have knock on effects in other European
elections. Cable nudged back to $1.5175 in early Asia before marking session
lows at $1.5153, the dip attracting stronger demand that lifted the rate through
the NY high and on to $1.5219. Rate retained most of these gains into Europe,
though some early profit taking seen pressing the rate back below $1.5200.
Support $1.5185/80 ahead of stronger $1.5155/50. Resistance remains into $1.5220
ahead of $1.5250/60. Euro-sterling extended its late NY recovery off stg0.8603
to stg0.8633 in early Asia only to meet fresh supply that pressed it to extended
lows of stg0.8576, holding below stg0.8600 into Europe.


YEN: Euro-yen saw a major reversal Monday as traders sold the euro on reaction
to the Italian election results, the outcome seen as a three way split with most
suggesting that the country will soon return to the polls. The vote against
austerity, with its possible knock on effects into other European economies
prompted a large move out of risk. The cross dropped from around Y125.20 to
Y118.74 in NY before recovering to Y120.40 into the close. This recovery
extended into Asia to Y121.36 before momentum faded and it drifted back around
Y120.00 ahead of Europe. Dollar-yen was dragged down from Y94.14 to a low of
Y90.85 before recovering to Y92.20 into the NY close. This late recovery
extended to Y92.75, traders noting decent demand from two Japanese banks into
the Tokyo fix. Post fix the rate drifted lower again, trading backa round Y92.00
into Europe. Importers and margin accounts were interested buyers into the dips,
with Asian traders noting the Mrs Watanabe's also showing interest. However,
recovery in yen pairs was seen thwarted by Nikkei weakness, but the underlying
tone remains for a softer yen.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: - Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Tuesday,
reversing recent gains as the yen regains some poise. The Nikkei 225 was lower
by 263.71 points, or 2.26%, at 11398.81. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX
was lower by 12.24 points at 968.46. Market breadth indicators saw 14 issue
higher, 209 lower and 2 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 2.412 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3100, $1.3225, $1.3300
* Dollar-yen; Y92.50, Y93.50
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9200
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2325
* Aussie; $1.0150, $1.0220, $1.0300, $1.0335, $1.0350, $1.0380, $1.0390


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign bond issuance this week is expected to
fall to around E10.57bln vs E26.71bln sold this week. Italy is the lone issuer
next week after Belgium and the Netherlands cancelled its regular bond auctions.
On Monday, Italy taps its zero coupon Dec 2014 CTZ issue for between E2.818bln
and also linker issues 2.10% 2021 & 3.10% 2026 BTPei for combined size of
E1.25bln. Looking ahead, Italy conducts its regular month-end medium-long
auction Wednesday, where tap of the benchmark 5-year 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for
between E1.75bln-E2.5bln and launch of a new 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for
between E3.0bln-E4.0bln indicative size. In terms of reinvestment flows, where
are no redemption payments due next week, with coupons from Italy E6.1bln,
Greece E1.2bln, Germany E0.9bln, France E0.8bln -- leaves net cash flow negative
to the tune of E1.6bln vs -E25.8bln last week. For full details of forthcoming
issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow
Matrix.

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Italy will be the final Eurozone sovereign to come to
the T-bill market on Tuesday, with plans to issue E8.75bln in new 6-month Aug
30, 2013 BOT. To recap, on Monday Germany sold E1.939bln at average yield
0.0353%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.792 3-month BTF at average yield
0.012%, E1.897bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.041% and E1.794bln 12-month BTF
at average yield 0.121%.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Feb 26 Italy T-bill auction
- Feb 27 Italy BTP auctions
- Feb 27 ECB 3-year LTRO repayment (E1.744bln 1st LTRO & E61.09bln 2nd LTRO)
- Feb 27 EMU economic/business climate index
- Feb 27 ECB Draghi speaks in Munich
- Feb 28 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Feb 28 German Feb unemployment data
- Feb 28 Spain Q4 final GDP data
- Feb 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.183bln
- Mar 01 Eurozone Jan unemployment data
- Mar 01 ECB announces repayment of LTRO allotments
- Mar 04 Eurogroup meeting
- Mar 05 ECOFIN meeting
- Mar 05 ESM bill auction
- Mar 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Feb 26 Q4 FDIC bank earnings at 1000ET
- Feb 26 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Feb 26 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Feb 26 UST Auctions $35BN 5y at 1300ET
- Feb 26 Fed Chair Bernanke gives FOMC's semi-ann report to Senate Banking
Committee in Washington
- Feb 26 Bernanke to give prepared testimony to Senate Banking Committee w/ Q&A
at 1000ET
- Feb 27 Bernanke to give testimony (same as on 2/26) to House Financial
Services Committee w/ Q&A
- Feb 27 Fed Fisher (non-voter) at Columbia Univ in NY at 1630ET
- Feb 27 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/28/2017-11/15/2017 $4.25-$5.25bn
- Feb 27 UST auctions $29BN 7y at 1300ET
- Feb 28 Q4 2012 GDP (2nd rev) at 0830ET
- Feb 28 MNI Chicago Rpt (Chi PMI) at 0945ET

[Nowy123]

na razie podwojne denko gramy L

-- Dodano: wt 26-02-2013, 9:57 --

poranny zjazd przed sesji UE mozliwy short sqqz na EDZIU

[molmomas]

do popołudnia może się konsolić nad 1.3020 i potem może coś się zacząć dziać.

[pkubiu]

Berlusconi chce się dogadać - idzie long