DayTrading: Czwartek 21.02.2013

[davor5]

na edku idziemy do 1,30 a potem się zobaczy co dalej

[Vanitas Vanitatum]

Jest szansa żeby UJ wrócił dzisiaj powyżej 94?

[pakubiu]

Jest szansa żeby UJ wrócił dzisiaj powyżej 94?

słabe dane z bilansu jednoznacznie beda przemawiać za wspomaganiem exportu wiec na pewno beda luzowac na potęgę nie pacząc się na innych
\

[Vanitas Vanitatum]

Jest szansa żeby UJ wrócił dzisiaj powyżej 94?

słabe dane z bilansu jednoznacznie beda przemawiać za wspomaganiem exportu wiec na pewno beda luzowac na potęgę nie pacząc się na innych
\

No tak mi się właśnie wydaje, więc dlaczego w nocy taka wyprzedaż?

[cajto]

Patrzę na kabla i nawet nie wiem od czego można mierzyć jakiś sensowny poziom do korekt DT, wszędzie jest pion i malutkie górki. Możliwe, że porobi teraz trochę większą amplitudę w obie strony żeby móc się czegoś zaczepić.
Ale równie dobrze może sobie nurknąć 100p w dół, kto bogatemu zabroni

[molmomas]

witam,
wiecie co sie dzieje z serwisem macronext ?
kurde kieruje mnie na home

[tommy_s]

witam,
wiecie co sie dzieje z serwisem macronext ?
kurde kieruje mnie na home

Pewnie nie zapłacili abonamentu;-)

[kamasoni]

co dalej z dax?

[Dmn112]

Eur/Aud h1 rgr się realizuje, zdążyłem już wsiąść ^^

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EU:Thursday's calendar kicks off in Europe with the regular release of the flash
services and manufacturing PMI numbers. French data is due at 0758GMT, followed
by German data at 0828GMT and overall EMU numbers at 0858GMT.
In between, at 0800GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government
declaration on recent the EU summit to the German parliament in Berlin.

GERMANY: German federal tax revenue in January was 6.4% below the previous-year
level, but total tax revenue (excluding local taxes) was 1.8% higher on the
year, the Finance Ministry said in its monthly report. Federal tax revenue in
January was somewhat distorted to the downside by higher transfers to the
European Union, the ministry pointed out. For the full year the government
expects federal tax revenue to rise by 1.6% and total tax revenue (ex-local) to
increase by 3.0%.

SPAIN: Spain's 5-year dollar RegS/144a deal priced for $2.0bln Wednesday
at mid-swaps +300bps or +316.6bps vs 5-year Notes -- marking its first dollar
sale since September 2009, received orders for more than 140 investors a total
of E3.1bln, confirmed the Spanish Treasury. Below gives investor breakdown:
- Fund managers took 51% of the sale, central banks 15%, hedge funds 16%,
commercial banks 10% and others (8%).
- Geographically: 47% of the investors from the Americas, 23% in the UK, 19% in
Asia and Middle East, Others 8% and Spain 3%.
- Leads: Barclays Capital, Citi, Santander Global Banking & Markets and Societe
Generale CIB.

GREECE: The latest gathering of the Euro Working Group, to be held Thursday, is
likely to OK the next tranche of Greek aid, the website eKathimerini says.



UK: UK gets underway at 0930GMT, with the release of the January Public
Sector Finances. January is a big month for tax receipts and will likely
make of break the government's annual numbers. The Chancellor can little
do with a disappointing number following the below par revenue return on
the 4G licence sales. Also at 0930GMT, the January SMMT Auto Production Figures
are scheduled for release. Further UK data is expected at 1100GMT, with the
release of the January CBI Industrial Trends Survey.
At 1815GMT, BOE MPC member David Miles speech in Bath. Miles a
long-term MPC dove, was one of three members to vote for an extension of QE at
the Feb meet.

UK PRESS: Ahead of the March Budget, the British Retail Consortium has urged the
Chancellor to hlp the High Street by cutting business costs, the Telegraph says.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph notes UK clearer HSBC is set to cut staff sales targets,
with success to now be measured by "customer satisfaction".

UK PRESS: The FSA, the UK financial services regulator, is set to release its
report on the LIBOR scandal in early March, the Independent reports



US: Data starts at 1330GMT, with the release of the jobless claims
data for the Feb 16 week.
The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 11,000 to 352,000 in the
February 16 employment survey week after falling by 27,000 in the previous week.
Two states were estimated in the February 9 week, but those estimates were close
to the actual data received after the deadline, so there should be little impact
on the size of any revision to that week. Because the 330,000 level in the
January 19 week will roll off the 4-week average calculation as this week's
level moves on, the 4-week average should rise further if the forecast is
realized. The level of initial claims was at 335,000 in the January 12
employment survey week.
Also at 1330GMT, the January CPI data is scheduled for release. CPI is expected
to rise 0.1% in January. The core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%. Gasoline prices
fell further in the month, though seasonal adjustment factors expect declines in
the winter. Pricing power remained weak in the month, which should continue to
restrain core price gains. The data will include annual revisions released on
February 19.
At 1350GMT, the Feb Markit PMI numbers are set to cross the wires. Following, at
1400GMT, Jan Existing Home Sales numbers will be released. The pace of existing
home sales is forecast to slow to a 4.87 million annual rate in January after
dipping slightly in December from November's three year high.
At 1500GMT, the February Phily Fed Survey and the January Leading Indicator
numbers are expected.
The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to rise to a reading of 1.2 in February
after falling back into negative territory with a -5.8 reading in January.
The index of leading indicators is expected to rise 0.2% in January after being
heavily influence by movements in initial claims over the last two months.
Positive contributions are expected from rising new orders, higher stock prices,
and lower initial claims. These should be offset by a shorter factory workweek
and a decline in consumer expectations.
At 1530GMT, the EIA Natural Gas Storage and EIA Crude Oil Stocks numbers for the
Feb 15 period are set to hit the screens.
Two Fed speakers are up from 1730GMT, when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
gives speech on economic and monetary policy outlook in New York. At 1800GMT,
San Francisco Fed President John Williams gives a speech on monetary policy in
New York.
US data releases sees Money Supply released at 2030GMT and the
Bloomberg Comfort Index at 1600GMT.




EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3284 after rate had been shoved to a session low
of $1.3271 ($1.3270 61.8% of the 2013 range $1.2998-1.3711) following 'hawkish'
FOMC Minutes, though the recent euro positivity had been given a knock as
traders adjusted positions ahead of end of the week event risk, Italian
elections, release of EZ PMI's and Germany Ifo and ongoing Cyprus concerns. Rate
traded early Asia within a $1.3270/90 range before traders targeted stops
through $1.3270/60, the triggering of which extended lows to $1.3256. A slight
reprieve as rate edged back to $1.3267 before a second wave of selling took rate
to extended lows of $1.3236 ahead of the European open. Bids reported between
$1.3230/20 with more stops below, a break to expose stronger demand at
$1.3210/00. Resistance remains back above $1.3300, with sell interest said to
extend to $1.3350. The dollar recovery seen across the board with the firm tone
holding into Europe. EZ flash PMI's begin with France at 0758GMT through to the
EZ at 0858GMT. Tuesday's strong ZEW reading for Germany has market expecting
stronger numbers. The afternoon sees a raft of US data, CPI and jobless claims
at 1330GMT, US PMI at 1358GMT, Phila Fed and housing data at 1500GMT.

EURO-DOLLAR: Asian traders say that major stops now gone, in the last move down
to $1.3236, confirm that demand now seen into $1.3225/20. One trader adds that
Asian market seen short and could lead to a recovery squeeze to $1.3265/70. Rate
currently trades around $1.3250 after touching a recovery high of $1.3254.



CABLE: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.5232, after rate's corrective pullback had
been given added weight as BOE Minutes QE vote showed a 6-3 split with Governor
King and Fisher joining Miles in calling for an added stg25bln, taking the rate
to eventual lows of $1.5192. Cable consolidated this fall in early Asia with
trade contained within a range of $1.5225/40 before fresh dollar demand saw rate
track euro-dollar lower to retest the $1.5200 level. The eventual break dropped
rate to $1.5132, the thin Asian conditions acting like a vacuum, with demand
emerging at the lows to allow rate to edge back to $1.5172 at writing.
Euro-sterling, which had seen extended highs of stg0.8764 Wednesday was confined
to a stg0.8710/59 range, trading around stg0.8735 into Europe. Resistance seen
at $1.5175/85, a break to open a move back toward $1.5200, with $1.5215
corresponding to the 76.4% retrace of this last fall from $1./5240 to $1.5132.
UK borrowing data at 0930GMT then CBI trends at 1100GMT to provide domestic data
interest, but the current recovery in the dollar, following last night's
'hawkish' FOMC Minutes expected to have further follow on effects.

CABLE: Recovery off late Asia lows of $1.5130 extend toward broken support at
$1.5200, the move back below this level in Asia prompting strong selling that
took it through the NY lows at $1.5192 and on to the mentioned lows. Thin
conditions in Asia saw rate take direction from euro-dollar, as this latter rate
took out some decent stops below $1.3270. A break of $1.5200 to open a move
toward $1.5220. Support now seen from $1.5130 through to $1.5120.



YEN: Dollar-yen closed NY at Y93.55, after drifting off from a FOMC Minutes
inspired spike high of Y94.05. Minutes were viewed as 'hawkish' which in turn
provided a strong boost the dollar. However, the euro saw the brunt of this
dollar demand, with euro-yen dragged off its highs of Y125.55 to Y124.18 before
closing in NY at Y124.28. Dollar-yen picked up fresh demand in Asia, the rate
pushing up to Y93.87, with euro-yen tracking this early move as it edged to
Y124.71. Fresh pressure on euro-dollar reversed this early recovery in the
cross, taking it down to Y123.64, the move dragging dollar-yen down to Y93.35
(Tenkan line). Support remains at Y93.35, with stops placed through Y93.15/10.
Stronger demand noted at Y92.85/80.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Wednesday. The Nikkei
225 was higher by 159.19 points, or 1.39%, at 11309.13. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 10.83 points at 962.87. Market breadth
indicators saw 32 issue higher, 186 lower and 7 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.75 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3310, $1.3335, $1.3340, $1.3345, $1.3350, $1.3365, $1.3475
* Dollar-yen; Y94.00(large)
* Euro-yen; Y124.50
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9150
* Aussie; $1.0310, $1.0415
* Aussie-yen; Y96.50


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is now
estimated to come in at E26.18bln after Belgium priced E5.0bln syndicated new
5-year benchmark bond Tuesday and Slovakia priced E1.75bln syndicated new
10-year benchmark bond Wednesday. This compares to E15.32bln worth of bonds sold
last week. Slovakia kicked off supply on Monday with tap auction of the floater
Nov 2016 SLOVGB218 and 4.625% Jan 2017 SLOVGB219 bonds for E255.2mln and
E175mln, respectively. Germany re-opened its benchmark 10-year 1.50% Feb 2023
Bund on Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. Looking ahead, France plans to sell 2.00%
July 2015 BTAN, 4.25% Oct 2017 OAT, 1.00% May 2018 OAT on Thursday for between
E7.0bln-E8.0bln. In addition, France plans to sell a new 0.25% July 2025 OATei
for between E1.5bln-E2.5bln. The main focus is on Spain's bond auctions on
Thursday, where the Tesoro Publico taps the 2.75% Mar 2015 Bono, 4.30% Oct 2019
Obligaciones and also 5.40% Jan 2023 Obligaciones issues for between
E3.0bln-E4.0bln indicative size. In terms of reinvestment flows, moderate
redemption of Greek floater for E0.44bln and coupons from Austria E0.3bln and
Ireland E0.2bln -- leaves net cash flow negative by around E25.2bln.

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Ireland will be the final Eurozone sovereign to come
to the T-bill market on Thursday, with plans to issue E500mln new 3-month T-bill
maturing May 20, 2013. To recap T-bill issuance so far this week, on Monday
Netherlands sold E2.09bln 3-month DTC at average yield 0.007% and sold E1.11bln
6-month DTC at average yield 0.026%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.595bln
3-month BTF at average yield 0.015%, E1.798bln 6-month BTF at average yield
0.050% and E1.795bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.131%. On Tuesday Spain sold
E886mln 3-month Letra at average yield 0.421% and sold E3.115bln 9-month Letra
at average yield 1.144%. ESM sold E1.948bln 6-month Bill at average yield
0.0374%. On Wednesday Portugal sold E345mln 3-month T-bill at average yield
0.737% and E1.155bln 12-month T-bill at average yield 1.277%.

SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico taps its 2-year benchmark 2.75%
Mar 2015 Bono, off-the-run 4.30% Oct 2019 Obligaciones and 10-year benchmark
5.40% Jan 2023 Obligaciones issues Thursday for between E3.0bln-E4.0bln
indicative size. The auction comes following strong 3-/9-month T-bill sale
Tuesday, where the Tesoro sold just above top end of E4.0bln target range and
statement by Spanish PM Rajoy that Spain's 2012 budget deficit will be below 7%.
For comparison purposes, the 2.75% 2015 Bono was first sold on Jan 10 for
E3.4bln at avg yield 2.48%, cover 2.07. In addition, this is the first tap of
the 5.40% 2023 Obligaciones that was sold via syndication on Jan 22 for E7.0bln
at MS +365bps, equating to a spread of +26bps vs 5.85% Jan 2022 Bono issue and
re-offer 5.403%. Spain's Treasury then said foreign investors took 60% of the
10-year benchmark bond and final demand exceeded E22.7bln -- highest for a
syndicated bond in the history of the Treasury and the E7.0bln alloted size was
in line with two 10-year issues made in 2009. As far as the 4.30% 2019
Obligaciones is concerned it was last sold in July 2012 and therefore not
comparable. Auction results are due around 0940GMT.

IRELAND T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Ireland's National Treasury Management Agency
(NTMA), will issue E500mln new 3-month T-bill maturing May 20, 2013 Thursday.
This will be the first auction since Ireland announced the controversial bond
swap where the promissory notes used to to rescue Anglo Irish were exchanged for
long-term government bonds. There is no grey market for the new 3-month T-bill,
but market expectations are for the T-bill to be issued at higher average yield
than previous auction on Jan 17, as short end yields have risen since last
month. At the last 3-month T-bill auction on Jan 17, NTMA allotted E500mln at an
average yield of 0.20%, with bid-to-cover of 3.8 times. The auction will open at
0930GMT and close at 1030GMT, with results due to be announced at around
1040GMT. A non-competitive auction will immediately follow the competitive
auction and will close on Thursday at 1600GMT, the NTMA said in the
announcement.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few days:
- Feb 21 European flash Feb PMI manufacturing/services survey
- Feb 21 Spain sells Obligaciones bonds
- Feb 21 European flash PMI survey
- Feb 22 Germany Feb IFO business survey
- Feb 22 ECB announces payback total amount for 2nd LTRO
- Feb 22 Portugal T-bill redemption for E2.205bln
- Feb 22 European Commission publishes updated forecasts
- Feb 25 Italy CTZ/linker auctions
- Feb 24/25 Italy general election
- Feb 26 Italy T-bill auction
- Feb 27 Italy BTP auctions
- Feb 27 ECB 2nd 3-year LTRO settles (E529.5bln)
- Feb 28 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Feb 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.183bln

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Feb 21 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 11/30/2018-02/15/2020 $3.00 - $3.75bn
- Feb 21 UST announces 3/6m bills, 2-, 5-, 7-yr notes at 1100ET
- Feb 21 Fed Bullard (voter) at NYU Stern Business School at 1230ET
- Feb 21 UST auctions $9B new 30-yr TIPS at 1300ET
- Feb 21 Fed Williams (non-voter) at NY Forecasters Club in NY at 1300ET - Feb
21 Fed Fisher (non-voter) in Dallas, TX at 2115ET
- Feb 21 Money Supply (M2) at 1630ET
- Feb 22 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25 -$1.75bn
- Feb 22 Fed Gov Powell, others at U Chic Booth School's MonPol Forum in NY w/
Q&A at 1015ET
- Feb 22 NY Fed Rosengren (voter) at U Chic Booth School's MonPol Forum in NY
- Feb 22 Fed Gov Tarullo at the Cornell Club in NY w/ Q&A at 1830ET
- Feb 22 NGA meets, fiscal update/comment on Obama's infrastructure plans
possible
- Feb 22 Pres Obama meets with Japan PM Abe at the White House