DayTrading: Czwartek 31.01.2013

[pr7emo]

ładnie unicredit podkręcił obroty na wigu20 :]

-- Dodano: czw 31-01-2013, 8:07 --

przeciez jak benek powiedzial , ze dalej drukuja to pewne jest , ze dolar sie umocni wbrew logice

może dyskontowali edka i odwidzi im się od dzisiaj, kto wie ;p

[pakubiu]

L na poziomie 1,3540 - to dobry moment?

[rafmax]

U/J long

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EU: There is a full calendar on both side of the Atlantic Thursday, starting with
the release of German December retail sales and ILO employment change at
0700GMT. Other German data due Thursday, although there is no fixed release,
will see German January flash HICP cross the wires. At 0745GMT, the French
December PPI and consumer spending numbers will be released At 0800GMT, further
eurozone inflation data will be released, when Spain's January flash HICP are
scheduled to hit screens. At 0810GMT, EU Internal Markets Commissioner Michel
Barnier will speak at a financial services conference, in Brussels. ECB Vice
President Vitor Constancio will speak at 0830GMT. German official January
unemployment numbers are set for release at 0855GMT, while the German Retailers
Association (HDE) releases its new sales forecasts at 0900GMT, in Berlin. At
1000GMT, the latest monthly Japanese FX intervention operations data will be
posted on the MOF website. At 1200GMT, ECB Governing Council member Erkki
Liikanen is scheduled to speak at the Brussels conference.
ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet is slated to appear at the Brussels
conference, speaking at 1445GMT.

FRANCE: The FT says the French government is coming under pressure to strengthen
is new bank regulation bill, saying current proposals come in weaker than
EU-wide proposals



UK: UK data will see the January Nationwide House Prices index released at 0700GMT,
with analysts looking for better mortgage lending data to start pushing house
prices higher.

UK: BOE WEALE COMMENTS FROM INTERVIEW WITH INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPER
BOE WEALE: DECLINES TO COMMENT ON FISCAL POLICY
BOE WEALE: EXPORTS HAVE PERFORMED BADLY
BOE WEALE: LOOKS LIKE FLS IS HAVING POSITIVE EFFECT
BOE WEALE: WOULDN'T RULE OUT FURTHER QE AT SOME STAGE
BOE WEALE: CONS OF NGDP TARGET OUTWEIGH THE PROS
BOE WEALE: WARY OF CHANGING FROM 2% CPI TARGET TO NGDP TARGET

UK PRESS: On a visit to Algeria Weds, UK PM Cameron hinted that UK defence
spending could be ring-fenced from further austerity cuts, the Telegraph
reports.

UK PRESS: The head of the Franklin Templeton bond funds warns that investors
should get out of "safe" government debt investments before it is too late, the
FT reports. Michael Hasenstab warns US yields would be substantially higher if
it was not for bond buying by the Fed.



US: The busy US calendar kicks off at 1130GMT, with the release of the January
1130/0730 US Jan-13 Challenger Layoffs numbers.
At 1330GMT, the Jobless Claimsnumbers for the Jan 26 week will cross the wires.
Also due at 1330GMT is the December PCE Price Index and the Q4 Employment Cost
Index.
The level of initial claims is expected to rise 30,000 to 360,000 in the January
26 holiday week after falling by 5,000 in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment
difficulties are common in January due to sharp fluctuations in the unadjusted
data and the presence of the New Years and MLK holiday, resulting in seasonally
adjusted movements that can be unexpected, such as in the January 19 week.
Still, it appears that there has been some improvement in claims over the last
year, when the hurricane-related blip in early November is discarded.
Personal income is expected to rise 1.0% in December. Nonfarm payrolls rose by
155,000, while the average workweek rose to 34.5 hours and hourly earnings
posted a 0.3% increase. Nominal PCE is expected to rise 0.3% in month. Retail
sales were up 0.5% in December, with sales excluding motor vehicles rose 0.3%.
The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.1%.
The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.5% in the the fourth quarter
after a 0.4% rise in the previous quarter.
Canadian data released at 1330GMT includes November Real GDP.
At 1345GMT, the MNI Chicago Report for January will be released. At 1430GMT, the
EIA Natural Gas Storage numbers for the Jan 25 week are set for release.
Late US data sees the release of January Agriculture Prices at 1900GMT, followed
at 2030GMT with the release of the Money Supply (M2) data for the Jan 21 week.

US: Correcting, US debt limit vote in the Senate tomorrow afternoon, not
tonight. In remarks on the Senate floor, Senate's Reid said the Senate will vote
on up to six amendments to the bill before moving to final passage.Reid said the
first vote on an amendment to the debt ceiling bill will occur at 12:15 p.m.
After that vote, the Senate will recess until 2 p.m. for party meetings. Then
the Senate will return to session and vote on up to five additional amendments
to the debt ceiling bill. Reid has said that he believes the Senate should pass
the same debt ceiling bill that the House approved last week. If this occurs,
the bill would to go directly to President Barack Obama for his signature. If
the Senate were to amend the House bill it would have to go back to the House
for further consideration.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3565, having seen post FOMC extended highs of
$1.3588. Rate marked lows into early Asia at $1.3562 before it settled around
$1.3570 through the balance of the Asian morning. Late session buying sees rate
mark session highs at $1.3584 into Europe with traders aware of offers placed
from that NY high at $1.3587 and extending toward reported barrier interest at
$1.3600. A break here to expose next barrier at $1.3625, with Asian traders
noting that stops are seen from $1.3615 through to $1.3655. Support seen into
$1.3560 ahead of $1.3535/30. German retail sales data at 0700GMT to provide the
early interest, followed by SNB reserve data, with traders looking to see if the
Bank has increased/decreased percentage holdings of euro (last 48%). Germany
employment and inflation due at 0855GMT and 1300GMT respectively. US personal
income/PCE due at 1330GMT ahead of the Chicago Report at 1445GMT. Last day of
January with models suggesting dollar sales to be seen at fixes.

EURO-DOLLAR: Release of disappointing Germany retail sales, showing -1.7% on the
month vs expectations of -0.10%, sees minimal react on release, though market
had been seen adjusting positions for a poor release, euro-dollar dropping back
from $1.3584 early Europe highs to $1.3551, with rate holding steady around
$1.3555 as any initial react sales were soaked up by profit take demand.
However, sellers eventually overcome demand with rate extending its pullback to
$1.3547, though struggling to make a clear break below $1.3550. Next support
seen at $1.3535/30.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5797, the rate having seen extended recovery highs of
$1.5817 as the dollar came under pressure post FOMC announcement, dipping back
to $1.5790 ahead of the close. Rate slipped back to $1.5792 in early Asia, with
recovery attempts countered around $1.5805 through the Asian morning before rate
managed to step its way through the NY high and on to $1.5826 ahead of the
European open. Move hits the recently mentioned short term target at $1.5820,
with rate now seen meeting resistance from those that had been looking to short
any rally extension into $1.5820/40. Rate trades around $1.5813 into Europe.
Euro-sterling, which had seen extended highs of stg0.86065 Tuesday consolidated
this move between stg0.8577/92 after closing the NY session at stg0.8586.
Nationwide house prices the early domestic interest at 0700GMT, with some
attention expected on SNB reserve data at 0800GMT to what percentage it holds in
sterling. Cable offers to $1.5840, more 1.5850/55 ahead of $1.5870. Support
$1.5790/85, with stops sub $1.5780. A break opens a deeper move toward
$1.5765/60. Ongoing dividend related demand for sterling at fixes, as well as a
general dollar sell signal could offset any residual euro-sterling demand.


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y91.09, edging up in early Asia to mark highs at
Y91.15 before Tokyo opened and sold into the move. Rate continued its corrective
pullback away from Wednesday's highs of Y91.41, pressing down to Y90.75 before
settling between Y90.85/91.00 into Europe. Focus today on option maturities at
the NY cut, the market having been told in recent days that strikes from Y90.00
through to Y91.50 hold some large interest, which have been anchoring the rate.
Once these are out of the way rate to have potential to break out of this recent
range, especially with US jobs data looming on the horizon Friday. Large option
barrier interest remains in place at Y91.50. Euro-yen closed in NY at Y123.36,
touched an early high into Asia at Y123.72 before Tokyo sold back into the rally
at their open, taking the rate to Y123.08 into Europe after an attempted
recovery off Y123.13 faltered into Y123.60.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading mildly positive Thursday, extending
their gains from the previous day. Spot gold ended Thursday's session up
$13.25 at $1677.05/oz after the US Federal Reserve decided to maintain
its purchasing of securities at the rate of $85bln a month. Gold prices
were also supported by US data that showed US GDP contracted in the
fourth quarter of 2012. This morning, spot gold prices have been pinned
in a narrow trading range after yesterday's gains, edging their way
higher from initial intra-day lows of $1675.13/oz to highs of around
$1680.70/oz and now trade just above unchanged levels at $1677.30/oz, up
$0.25 on the session.


OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading marginally lower Thursday after
racking up some more gains during the previous session. NYMEX March
light sweet crude oil futures settled up $0.37 at $97.94 per barrel,
after trading in a $97.32 to $98.24 range. This is the highest close in
the front contract since September 14, 2012, when oil topped out at
$100.42 and closed at $99.00. WTI prices have been tied to a narrow
range so far this morning, paring back from a high of $98.04 to trade on
session lows of $97.78 a few moments ago. In terms of supply, data
published yesterday by the Energy Department showed that US crude oil
inventories jumped by 5.95mln barrels in the week to January 25th.
Analysts had forecast a 2.6mln barrel crude build. March WTI futures now
trade at $97.79 a barrel, down 15 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX March natural gas prices are trading around unchanged
levels Thursday after posting their first gain in seven sessions the
previous day. March natural gas prices ended Thursday's session up 7.7
cents, or 2.4%, at $3.335 per million British thermal units (mln Btu)
after trading in a $3.261 to $3.344 range. The front month contract had
previously shed 9.5% during the previous six sessions. Focus now turns
to today's EIA natural gas storage data, due to be published later today
at 1530GMT, with analysts expecting the report to reveal a fall of gas
inventories last week to around 207bln cubic feet (c/f), well above the
average decline for this time of year. March natural gas prices have now
turned marginally lower after an initial high of $3.351 per mln Btu, and
now trade on intra-day lows of $3.322 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600
* Dollar-yen; Y90.00, Y90.50, Y91.00, Y91.50 (all $/Y expiries very large)
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2500
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0410(large), $1.0425, $1.0470, $1.0500, $1.0515
* Aussie-yen; Y95.00
* Dollar-Brazil; Brl 2.00 (large)


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign bond issuance has been completed for this
week and totals E20.765bln vs E13.01bln issued last week. To re-cap, on Monday
Italy sold E4.0bln 2-year Dec 2014 CTZ at average yield of 1.434% and sold
E2.628bln 1.70% Sep 2018 Linker BTPei at average yield of 1.80%. On Tuesday
Finland sold E1.0bln 2.75% July 2028 RFGB at average yield 2.291%. Also on
Tuesday the EFSF placed E5.0bln in new 5-year benchmark bond via syndication at
re-offer yield of 1.346%. On Wednesday Italy sold E3.0bln 5-year 3.50% Nov 2017
BTP at average yield 2.94% and sold E3.5bln 10-year 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP at
average yield 4.17%. Lastly, Germany sold E1.637bln 30-year 2.50% Jul 2044 Bund
at average yield of 2.45%. Bond issuance is scheduled to fall to E16.0bln next
week with plans from Austria, Germany, France and Spain.



EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan 31 Spain & Greece ban on short-selling due to expire
- Jan 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.775bln
- Jan 31 Spain bond redemption for E14.286bln
- Feb 01 Italy BTP bond redemption for E21.009bln
- Feb 05 ESM bill auction
- Feb 06 ECB bank lending survey
- Feb 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Feb 07/08 European Leaders summit in Brussel
- Feb 07 Spain sells Bono bonds
- Feb 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.975bln
- Feb 11 Eurogroup meeting
- Feb 12 ECOFIN meeting
- Feb 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Feb 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
- Feb 13 European Commission publishes forecasts

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few weeks:
- TBD Confirmation hearing, committee vote, Senate confirmation of Lew as US
Treasury Secretary
- Jan 31 MNI Chicago Rpt (Chi PMI) at 09:45 ET
- Jan 31 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-11/15/2042 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Jan 31 UST announces 3/6m, 52wk bills at 11:00 ET
- Jan 31 Fed announces Tsy cpn purchase schedule for Feb at 14:00 ET
- Jan 31 Money Supply (M2)at 16:30 ET
- Feb 01 Jan non-farm payrolls at 08:30 ET, est +165k, +0.2% AHE
- Feb 01 Fed Dudley (voter) at NY Bankers Assoc 2013 Ann Mtg at Waldorf Astoria
at 08:30 ET
- Feb 04-06 US House of Reps to meet
- Feb 04 UST announces 4 week at 11:00 ET
- Feb 04 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 11:30 ET
- Feb 05 US Congressional Budget Office releases fiscal year 2014-23 budget &
econ report at 13:00 ET

[zeuss]

L na poziomie 1,3540 - to dobry moment?

lepszy jest na 1,35363

[mazurek96]

L na poziomie 1,3540 - to dobry moment?

lepszy jest na 1,35363

hmmmm, a nie pomyśleliście że Europie nie podoba się takie silne Euro w stosunku do USD?
Mi się wydaje że jakiś bank sprzedaje Euro. ;-)

[Nowy123]

PIsalem ze korekta na E J predzej zobaczymy niz jazde na 125 30 -50 ze za krotka w czasnie ona jest a dane z NIEMIEC fantastik

wizje z wczoraj i gdzie dzis na razie odbili 122 97

[BOCZEK]

siema, o czym ben ostatnio gadał, poadły jakieś ważne słowa czy to z ust ben czy kogoś też ważnego?

[jurcik]

L na poziomie 1,3540 - to dobry moment?

lepszy jest na 1,35363

hmmmm, a nie pomyśleliście że Europie nie podoba się takie silne Euro w stosunku do USD?
Mi się wydaje że jakiś bank sprzedaje Euro. ;-)

Żeby stworzyć konkurencyjną gospodarkę o czym mówiła A.Merkel w Davos to dla krajów południa Euro powinno być 30% tańsze czyli poniżej parytetu do dolara.......witam Panie i Panów...

[rafmax]

uwaga na kabla w rejonie 1,5830-50, spore prawdopodobienstwo ze zawróci do okolic 1,5765