DayTrading: Środa 30.01.2013

[crok.]

przy glupocie jeszcze goldmanom prognoza wyjdzie:)

[pakubiu]

przy glupocie jeszcze goldmanom prognoza wyjdzie:)

możesz przypomnieć

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: Wednesday is probably the main day of the week for market watchers, with
both The Federal Reserve FOMC's policy decision expected and US Q4 GDP data is
released. European data starts at 0800GMT with the release of Spain's 4Q flash
GDP. This is followed at 0825GMT by an appearance in from of the European
Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee by EU Commission President
Barroso and EU Council President Van Rompuy. At 0900GMT, Italian January ISTAT
business survey numbers will cross the wires. The ECB is scheduled to publish
its EMU Bank Lending Survey, also at 0900GMT. Further Eurozone data is released
at 1000GMT, with the release of the EMU January economic sentiment and business
climate indices. Then, at 1100GMT, Portugal's December industrial production
data will cross thE wires.

GREECE: Greek FinMin Stournas told BBC that he is "100% certain" that Greece
will see growth in 2014 and that the turnaround will begin in the last quarter
of 2013, eKathimerini reports.

EUROPEAN STOCKS: Major European bourses are initially seen trading flat to
modestly higher Weds. Spreadbetter Cantor Index are calling the FTSE unchanged,
with both the DAX and the CAC up 4.

BUNDS: Bunds open 7 ticks lower at 141.75



UK: Writing in Forbes magazine, Pimco head Mohamed El-Erian says the UK would
risk a fall in its standard of living if it leaves the UK nad the government
would then likely need to find a "Plan B", the Telegraph says.

INDUSTRY NEWS: The FT says RBS is set to wind down and close its mergers and
acquisitions department, as the group is unable to find a buyer for the
business.


US: The US calendar gets underway at 1200GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage
Index for the Jan 25 week. The January ADP National employment report is set for
reelase at 1315GMT.
Then, at 1330GMT, the fourth quarter GDP and Chain Price Index numbers are due
for release.
Fourth quarter GDP is expected to rise 1.0% in the advance estimate from the
3.1% rise in the third quarter. The impact of Hurricane Sandy was a key factor
that will be reversed in the first quarter, so the weak fourth quarter rise is
to be viewed cautiously. PCE, residential investment, and capital expenditures
should add to GDP, while a inventory investment, net exports, and government
spending should provide some offset. The chain price index is expected to be up
1.5% for the quarter, compared with the 2.7% rise in the third quarter.
Also at 1330GMT, the Canadian November Payroll and employment numbers are
expected to cross the wires.
Back in the US, at 1500GMT, the January Help-wanted Online numbers are set for
release. At 1530GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the Jan 25 week will hit
traders screens.
The FOMC is likely to stand pat with its "highly accommodative" policy
this week and perhaps well beyond. The Fed's policy decision is expected at
1915GMT.
Wednesday is probably the main day of the week for market watchers, with both
The Federal Reserve FOMC's policy decision expected and US Q4 GDP data is
released.
When Fed policymakers meet for the first time this year, with the newly rotated
votimng members, they will confront not just economic realities but also fiscal
policy concerns, as they discuss how long they need to hold the federal funds
rate near zero and keep buying bonds to hold down long-term interest rates.
Perhaps more than at any time in the Fed's 100-year history, budgetary issues
impinge on monetary policy.
The FOMC has vowed to continue buying assets, at a current pace of $85 billion
per month, until it sees "substantial" improvement in the outlook for the labor
market. And the FOMC plans to hold the federal funds rate near zero "for a
considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic
recovery strengthens."



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3488 after rate had made two attempts to take
out option barrier interest at $1.3500, with rate finding support during the
session at $1.3460 on pullbacks. Asia kept focus on the barrier interest with
trade through the overnight session contained by $1.3485/95, with traders noting
major Asian sovereign sell interest encountered in the $1.3490's. Talk in Asia
notes the oft mentioned $1.3500 barriers but add that the big one could be
sitting behind at $1.3505. Large stops are noted on break of this latter level,
the area between $1.3505/10. Rate opens Europe around $1.3488. Traders have
suggested that early Europe could attempt the $1.3500/05 area, a break of
$1.3505/10 to expose take profit offers sitting between $1.3510/25 (suggestion
of another barrier at $1.3525). If this sell interest is taken out then seen
opening a move toward $1.3550 (barrier). Support seen at $1.3485/80 ahead of
$1.3460/50. Spain GDP at 0800GMT, EMU confidence indicators at 1000GMT provide
the morning data interest ahead of US ADP and Q4 GDP at 1315/1330GMT, but this
evening's FOMC announcement 1915GMT to overshadow (though most do not expect any
major policy change).



EURO-DOLLAR: Edging higher in early Europe, the rate moving back above $1.3490,
but remains off overnight highs at $1.3495 (NY high $1.3498). Traders have noted
that when rate moved to that mentioned high around E1.5bln of offers appeared on
EBS between $1.3497-1.3501. This possibly supports the view that the bigger
barrier resides at $1.3505, though barrier interest at $1.3500 also noted to be
for fair size. Stops $1.3505/10 with take profit offers placed between
$1.3510/25. Another barrier seen at $1.3525, more at $1.3550.
Rate trades around $1.3492 at posting.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3550 Strong offers on approach/Barrier
$1.3510/25 Take profit offers/$1.3525 barrier
$1.3505/10 Stops
$1.3505 Large barrier
$1.3500 Strong offers/$1.3500 Barrier
$1.3496 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3496 (NY high $1.3498)
$1.3495 ***Current mkt rate 0705GMT Wednesday
$1.3482 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3480 Medium demand
$1.3465/60 Strong demand/$1.3462 pullback low in NY
$1.3440 Medium demand
$1.3425/20 Strong demand/Option linked demand, recycling $1.3500 defence sales
$1.3405/00 Medium demand/Corporate bid interest/Stops


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5760 after rate had been pulled up to $1.5774 by
euro-dollar's stronger rally, aided by euro-sterling's recovery meeting a
counter toward stg0.8570. Rate had drifted off to $1.5733 before recovering into
the NY close. Early selling into Asia pressed rate down to $1.5744 before buyers
emerged into the dip to take rate back to $1.5760, the move up aided by Goto-bi
day demand for yen pairs into the Tokyo fix. Once demand interest faded rate
slipped to $1.5742 ($1.5741 76.4% $1.5733-65), met demand interest placed into
$1.5740 before edging back to $1.5750 into Europe. UK lending data due for
release at 0930GMT to provide domestic interest, but moves still to be mainly
dictated by euro cross moves, with traders still expecting to see some end month
demand from a certain European sovereign (buying from this party was suggested
as rate lifted off Tuesday lows of stg0.85285, the rate rising to stg0.8567
before meeting middle eastern supply above stg0.8565). The cross consolidated
Tuesday's recovery in Asia, the rate contained by stg0.8556/0.85675. Cable
offers $1.5765/80, a break to open a move toward $1.5800 ahead of $1.5820.
Support $1.5735/30 ahead of $1.5710/00.


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y90.76, the rate continuing to hold familiar
ranges with market aware of large option expiries for month-end/Thursday with
strikes concentrated between Y90.00-91.50. Early demand for yen pairs ahead of
the Tokyo fix was linked to Goto-bi Day interest, the rate lifting to an early
high of Y91.03 before profit take sell interest above the figure was
encountered. Rate then settled between Y90.85/00 ahead of the European. Euro-yen
saw similar fix interest, pushing up from its open a t Y122.40 to Y122.83 before
settling between Y122.50/70. Traders also noted Japanese interest to buy
Aussie-yen, said to be linked to Toshin issuance. Late Asia comments from the
Japanese PM Abe that noting that priority is to reach the inflation target
quickly, adding that a revision of BOJ law still a future possibility, provided
a late session boost to Aussie-yen, added buoyancy in other yen pairs.

YEN: Asian traders note that decent sized interest for overnight Y90.85 and
Y91.00 strikes was sen overnight, adding to the already reported large expiries
for Thursday/end month with strikes concentrated between Y90.00-91.50. Rate
currently trades around Y90.90

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Wednesday, at fresh
multi-year highs, helped by the renewed yen weakness. The Nikkei 225 was ahead
by 247.23 points, or 2.28%, at 11113.95. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX
was higher by 13.75 points at 834.51. Market breadth indicators saw 197 issue
higher, 17 lower and 11 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.765 bn shares.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading higher Wednesday, extending their
gains from the previous day. Spot gold ended Tuesday's session up $8.30
at $1663.80/oz ending a sequence of four consecutive down days, drawing
some moderate support from hopes that the US Federal Reserve would opt
to continue with monetary stimulus. Market participant's attention will
be firmly on this week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes later
today. The Federal Reserve statement is due at around 1915GMT, with
general consensus being that the central bank will keep up its $85bln in
monthly bond buying until US unemployment rates show a significant drop,
although officials have expressed some concern over side effects from
such measures. Traders will also be waiting for this Friday's US jobs
data for closer scrutiny of the US labour market. Spot gold prices have
edged their way higher during Asian traded hours this morning, advancing
from an initial intra-day low of $1663.05/oz to highs of around
$1668.30/oz a few moments ago and now trade at $1668/oz, up $4.20 on the
session.


OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading close to unchanged levels
Wednesday after posting some strong gains during the previous day. March
WTI futures ended Tuesday's session $1.13 higher, or 1.2%, at $97.57 a
barrel after trading in a $96.29 to $97.82 range. The strong gains were
attributed to a firmer showing from the euro in addition to talk of an
oil facility explosion at an oil plant near Van, Texas. WTI prices have
been in consolidation mode so far during Asian traded hours this morning
and have been limited to a narrow 31 cent range, advancing from initial
intra-day lows of $97.32 to highs of $97.63 and the March contract
currently trades at $97.54 a barrel, down 3 cents on the session.
Today's focus will be on the Energy Information Administration (EIA)
data, due to be published at 1530GMT, 1030ET.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX March natural gas prices are trading in positive
territory Wednesday after prices lost more ground during the previous
day. March natural gas futures ended Tuesday's session at $3.258 per
million British thermal units (mln Btu) after trading in a $3.232 to
$3.300 range. The February contract expired last night down 6.3 cents,
or 1.9%, at $3.226 per mln Btu after trading in a fairly narrow $3.207
to $3.275 range. Prices continued their slide after some rapidly
changing short-term temperature views that are expected through much of
the US into the second week of February. In terms of supply, natural gas
storage data is due to be published at 1530GMT today from the Energy
Information Administration (EIA), with analysts expecting stocks to have
fallen by around 200bln cubic feet (bln c/f) last week, the biggest
decline this season so far. March natural gas prices have advanced early
this morning, picking up from initial lows of $3.261 to post an
intra-day high of $3.294 and now trade at $3.281 per mln Btu, up from
last night's close of $3.258 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3430, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3525
* Dollar-yen; Y90.00, Y90.50, Y91.00, Y91.25
* Cable; $1.5725, $1.5775, $1.5800
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8550
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9185
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2475
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0450, $1.0500


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E17.989bln allocated by Germany, France and Italy, compared
to E15.725bln allotted last week. To recap, on Monday Germany sold E2.07bln
12-month Bubill at average yield 0.1319%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.995
3-month BTF at average yield 0.011%, E1.93bln 6-month BTF at average yield
0.051% and E1.494bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.186%. On Tuesday Italy sold
E8.5bln 6-month BOT at average yield 0.731%. In terms of T-bill issuance planned
for next week we have, Netherlands, France, Greece, Belgium and ESM, and could
total E17.0bln.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Both Italy and Germany come to the European Sovereign
issuance market Wednesday. Italy will be first up with plans to re-open 5-year
benchmark 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for between E2.0bln and E3.0bln, and re-open
10-year benchmark 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP for between E2.5bln and E3.5bln. Germany
then re-opens 40-year Benchmark 2.50% Jul 2044 Bund for up to E2.0bln. To
re-cap, issuance so far this week has come from Italy where the Tesoro sold
E4.0bln 2-year Dec 2014 CTZ at average yield of 1.434% and sold E2.628bln 1.70%
Sep 2018 Linker BTPei at average yield of 1.80%. On Tuesday Finland sold E1.0bln
2.75% July 2028 RFGB at average yield 2.291%. Also on Tuesday the EFSF placed
E5.0bln in new 5-year benchmark bond via syndication at re-offer yield of
1.346%.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens it's 30-year
benchmark 2.50% Jul 2044 Bund on Wednesday for up to E2.0bln. This will be the
first of a scheduled four taps of the 30-year Bund, with a total of E8.0bln
expected to be raised over the course of 2013. Mid-yield is currently seen at
2.435%. At the last auction of 2.50% July 2044 on Oct 31, E1.704bln was allotted
at average yield of 2.34% and covered 2.7 times, with the Buba retaining 14.8%
of the sale. Prior to this, it was sold on Jul 25 were E2.322bln was allotted at
average yield of 2.17% and covered 1.5 times with Buba retaining 22.6% of the
sale. Auction results due shortly after bidding closes at 0930GMT.

ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento Del Tesoro plans to re-open 5-year
benchmark 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln and re-open 10-year
benchmark 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP for between E2.5bln and E3.5bln Wednesday. The
auction comes amid a very successful start for Italian sovereign issuance, but
political concerns remain, as newswires report a rise in public support for
Berluscconi, ahead of Elections next month. Mid-yield on the 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP
is seen at 2.975%, having fallen by over 30bps since the beginning of the year,
and was last tapped on Dec 28, 2012 were E2.871bln was sold at average yield of
3.26% and covered 1.29 times. As for the 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP, mid-yield is seen
at 4.17%, having fallen from 4.45% this year and was also last sold on Dec 28
for E3.0bln at an average of yield 4.48% and covered 1.47 times. Demand is seen
supported by coupon and redemptions payments totalling E30.4bln, leaving net
cash flow positive to the tune of E23.9bln. Auction results are due around
1010GMT.

EUROZONE: EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan 30 ECB 3-year LTRO 1 year anniversary (E489bln total borrowed)
- Jan 30 Italy BTP auction
- Jan 31 Spain & Greece ban on short-selling due to expire
- Jan 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.775bln
- Jan 31 Spain bond redemption for E14.286bln
- Feb 01 Italy BTP bond redemption for E21.009bln
- Feb 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Feb 07/08 European Leaders summit in Brussels
- Feb 07 Spain sells Bono bonds
- Feb 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.975bln
- Feb 11 Eurogroup meeting
- Feb 12 ECOFIN meeting
- Feb 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Feb 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
- Feb 13 European Commission publishes forecasts

[rafmax]

GBP/USD
Po połaczeniu ostatnich dwóch siwec dziennych na tej parze otrzymamy wazke doji. dodakowo jest ona usytuowana na dosc ciekawym poziomie silnego wparcia ok 1,5750...

[kuchara23]

Wiedzieliscie, ze na futuresach /papiery CFD/ nie ma ciaglego wykresu z notowaniami. Dlaczego?
Jest to seria kontraktu. Gdy dana seria wygasa, na jej miejsce pojawia się kolejna, jednakże nie ma możliwości pozostawienia historycznych wykresów poprzednich serii.

bardzo dziwne, dlatego nie ma wykresy notowan z poprzednich serii...

[crok.]

kov szansa na oslabienie franka?

[zeuss]

Wiedzieliscie, ze na futuresach /papiery CFD/ nie ma ciaglego wykresu z notowaniami. Dlaczego?
Jest to seria kontraktu. Gdy dana seria wygasa, na jej miejsce pojawia się kolejna, jednakże nie ma możliwości pozostawienia historycznych wykresów poprzednich serii.

bardzo dziwne, dlatego nie ma wykresy notowan z poprzednich serii...

po 1 futures a CFD( contract for diffrences) to zupełnie inny instrument.
po 2 to czy masz ciągłość wykresu zależy od twojego brokera.
futures to instrument pochodny i jego dane są opóznione ze zwgędu na zależność od instrumentu głównego.
CFD jest na bierząco

[Groszke]

Czy ktoś może mi powiedzieć najbliższe opory na Edku i EJ.. bo coś strasznie nie może sie jedno i drugie zdecydować dokad idziemy

123.200 ?

[jogimk]

na EDKU (wedlug wykresu dziennego)

S3
1.3353
S2
1.3384
S1
1.3436
Pivot Points
1.3467
R1
1.3519
R2
1.3550
R3
1.3602

[niemiaszek]

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3600/10 Medium offers
$1.3575/80 Medium offers
$1.3550 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
$1.3515/25 Take profit offers/$1.3525 barrier/$1.3530 Stops
$1.3516 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3496 (NY high $1.3498)
$1.3503 ***Current mkt rate 0838GMT Wednesday
$1.3482 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3480 Strong demand
$1.3465/60 Medium demand/$1.3462 pullback low in NY
$1.3450/40 Medium demand/$1.3430 Stops
$1.3425/20 Medium demand
$1.3405/00 Medium demand/Corporate bid interest/Stops
$1.3380 Strong demand


CABLE: MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.5870/80 Medium offers
$1.5850/55 Strong offers/$1.5860 Stops
$1.5830 Strong Offers on approach
$1.5827 Fri Jan 25 high, recovery off $1.5745 GDP react lows
$1.5795/800 Medium offers
$1.5774 Tue Jan29 high/More stops above/Stops $1.5770-75
$1.5770 Medium offers on approach
$1.5767 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.5763
$1.5745 **Current market rate 0939GMT Wednesday
$1.5742 Int.Day low Asia
$1.5735/30 Medium demand/Stops
$1.5710/00 Medium demand
$1.5695/90 Stops
$1.5680/70 Medium demand
$1.5650/40 Medium demand