DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
Co do EUR/USD to do czasu otwarcia ameryki zakładam dwa schematy:
sell 1,3424 tp1 1,3389 tp2 1,3340
buy 1,3469 tp 1,3500 (?)
*Na podstawie własnej analizy.
sell 1,3424 tp1 1,3389 tp2 1,3340
buy 1,3469 tp 1,3500 (?)
*Na podstawie własnej analizy.
Don't tell me the sky is the limit when there are footprints on the moon!
- ForexTig3r
- Maniak
- Posty: 2462
- Rejestracja: 15 maja 2012, 13:47
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
subsilver2 趋势线
subsilver2 趋势线
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
Geniusz ! Rekin Forexu ! Kupuje na oporze i sprzedaje na wsparciu ! %-)micjat pisze:Co do EUR/USD to do czasu otwarcia ameryki zakładam dwa schematy:
sell 1,3424 tp1 1,3389 tp2 1,3340
buy 1,3469 tp 1,3500 (?)
*Na podstawie własnej analizy.
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
mozliwe tez sie nad tym zastanawialem
- niemiaszek
- Przyjaciel Forum
- Posty: 5097
- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
Hello
EUROPE: For today, the first data release is expected at 0900GMT, with the
release of the EMU December M3 money supply numbers. Also at 0900GMT, the
Italian January ISTAT consumer confidence survey will cross the wires. There are
few scheduled central bank speakers, but at 0930GMT, Financial Stability Board
Chairman Mark Carney is set to give a press briefing, in Zurich.
EUROPEAN PRESS: The Eurozone is not yet in "normal times," European Central Bank
Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said in an interview published Sunday,
warning that slowing the reform pace or failing to deal with Cyprus could still
undo progress at the moment when some peripheral EMU nations are looking to exit
the crisis. Speaking to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, Asmussen flatly
rejected raising the ECB's inflation target, which could upset inflation
expectations that remain "well-anchored" across the Eurozone at around 2%.
UK PRESS: UK Deputy PM Nick Clegg said Sunday there would be no end to the UK's
austerity drive, as it is needed to push down the deficit. However, Clegg said
the government should look at any infrastructure projects, provided they don't
"break the bank."
UK PRESS: UK companies spent a record stg 4.9 billion on redundancy payments in
2012, the Times reports, as companies attempt to streamline operations.
UK PRESS: The Independent says final salary pension schemes are closing at a
record rate, as quantitative easing impacts cash available in pension funds.
UK PRESS: The FT says the Treasury is thinking more of flexible inflation
targeting for the BOE, as opposed to targeting real GDP. The comments come from
Treasury sources, following reports of a conversation in Davos between incoming
BOE Governor Carney and Chancellor George Osborne.
US: The US calendar starts at 1300GMT, with the release of the December Building
Permits Revision. At 1330GMT, the December Durable Goods Orders are released.
Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% in December after gains in the
previous three months. Boeing reported 183 orders in December, up from 124 in
November. At 1430GMT, the MNI Capital Goods Index for the January 25 week will
be released, followed at 1500GMT by the release of the December NAR Pending Home
Sales. At 1530GMT, the MNI Retail Trade Index for the Jan 26 week will cross the
wires. The last data release scheduled for Monday is the January Dallas Fed
manufacturing survey, also expected at 1530GMT.
DOLLAR: Speculative accounts increased their net euro long position, while they
trimmed their net yen short position as of January 22, according to U.S. CFTC
data released Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only
section, excluding options -- showed speculators had a net euro long position of
+21,381 contracts as of Tuesday, compared to last week's net euro long of +7,315
contracts. This is the largest net euro long since July 5, 2011 (+43,194
contracts). This week's net long contrasts to the record net euro long of
+119,538 contracts seen May 15, 2007 and the record net euro short of -214,418
contracts, seen June 5, 2012. Spec accounts had a net yen short of -64,068
contracts as per January 22, versus the prior week's net yen short of -65,727
contracts and the yen short of -94,401 contracts from December 11, which was the
largest net yen short position since July 2007. The euro closed near $1.3320 and
dollar-yen at Y88.70 January 22, which compared to closing levels Friday at
$1.3460 and Y90.85.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3464 after easing off extended NY session
highs of $1.3480, with rate buoyed above $1.3450 into the close. Early sales
into Asia saw rate squeeze down to pressure some of the weaker spec longs, the
dip under $1.3450 to $1.3443 triggering minor stops before fresh demand interest
emerged. Rate recovered to $1.3471 before meeting resistance with rate then
steeling between $1.3450/70 through to the European open. Offers said to remain
in place from above $1.3470, strengthening from $1.3480 through to much reported
barrier interest at $1.3500 ($1.3488 2012 high; $1.3490 50% $1.4940-1.2040
May'11-Jul'12). Large stops have been reported in place through $1.3505/10.
Minor offers then seen into $1.3520 ahead of stronger interest toward $1.3550.
Support $1.3450/40 with stops below. ECB releases M3 data at 0900GMT, with US
durable goods data at 1330GMT to provide the data interest on the day. Interest
for the week with US FOMC and US Q4 GDP Wednesday, ahead of US employment report
Friday. Yen action remains key to direction.
EURO-DOLLAR: Under pressure into early Europe as rate retests overnight lows
into $1.3443. Stops seen in place on a break of $1.3440, which if triggered to
open a deeper move toward $1.3410/00. Resistance seen between $1.3470/80, a
break to expose barrier interest at $1.3500, with large offers noted ahead to
protect. Large stops seen placed between $1.3510/15.
CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.5799, off a session recovery high of $1.5827,
after rate had been pressed to extended lows of $1.5745 following the release of
disappointing Q4 GDP data. Early Asia pressured cable off an early posted high
of $1.5795, the early market, especially, thinned by the Australia Day holiday,
with sales taking the rate down to $1.5756 before it picked up fresh demand
interest that allowed rate to recover to $1.5786. The recovery proved short
lived with sales then pressing the rate back to $1.5754 before it settled
between $1.5755/70 ahead of the European open. A very light domestic calendar
Monday will leave rate to track euro-dollar moves, as it mainly did through
Asia, though activity in euro-sterling should pick up again in Europe with end
of month Activity likely to put added pressure on sterling. The cross extended
Friday's high of stg0.8536 to stg0.8548 overnight, with traders turning sights
onto the next reported barrier at stg0.8550. Cable support remains in place
between $1.5755/45, with stops placed on a break of $1.5740. Resistance
$1.5800/10 ahead of $1.5830.
CABLE: Found some support between $1.5725/20, but the cross breaking above
stg0.8550, and now building, seen adding added pressure. Cable extends lows to
$1.5717. Next support seen from around $1.5705 through to $1.5690. Stops below.
Rate currently trades around $1.5720.
YEN: Dollar-yen achieved a technical target at Y91.20 (Mar'12 high) on Friday,
the extended rally meeting willing profit take selling at this level which
countered further upside gains. The rate pulled back to Y90.77 but the
underlying buoyant tone remained in place into the close at Y90.90. Fresh demand
into Asia edged rate back to retest Friday highs, with a push from around Y91.10
able to extend move to Y91.26 before momentum faded. Rate dipped back to Y90.85
before it settled in a range around Y91.00 ahead of the European open. Technical
traders note channel resistance coming through around the Y91.25 level, with
offers noted from this level, strengthening toward large barrier interest at
Y91.50. Stops noted above this level, which if triggered to open a move on
toward Y91.70/85 ahead of Y92.00. Support seen back at Y90.85/70 with stops
below. Euro-yen extended its recent recovery to Y122.91 in Asia (NY high
Y122.78) with rate easing off highs to settled between Y122.20/60 into Europe.
Traders remain open to reaction from Japanese officials, ex-EconMin Takenaka
reported saying in the WSJ that yen has room to fall further toward Y95.00
(Takenaka a speculated candidate for new BOJ Governor).
JAPAN: Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters that the upwardly revised 2.5%
real GDP forecast for fiscal 2013 by the government (previous forecast +1.7%)
reflects lower downside risks to global growth. He repeated that the
government's top priority is to revive economic vitality.
JAPAN: Finance Minister Taro Aso also repeated his recent comments that the yen
is in a correction phase after posting an excessive rise earlier.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Monday. The
Nikkei 225 was lower by 102.34 points, or 0.94%, at 10824.31. Into the close,
the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 2.32 points at 914.77. Market breadth
indicators saw 71 issue higher, 145 lower and 9 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.75 bn shares.
AUSSIE: Australia Day holiday made for thin trading through the overnight
session, with moves dictated by euro moves. Rate saw an early low of $1.0408,
but demand placed into $1.0400 managed to cushion. Recovery from here saw rate
edge to $1.0430 where it met decent resistance. A dip to $1.0415/10 ahead of
Europe was being corrected into the new session, the rate pushing back up to
retest that overnight high. Offers seen from $1.0430 through to $1.0445 with
stops reported above. Below $1.0400 and further demand seen into $1.0390 with
stops placed on a break below.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Monday after
posting a two-week low during the previous trading day. Spot gold ended
Friday's session $9.25 lower at $1658.70/oz after falling to lows of
$1655.39/oz as demand for haven assets continued to decline after Wall
Street posted another set of gains Friday for the eighth consecutive
day. Some moderate physical demand has helped gold prices edge their way
higher during Asian traded hours this morning, albeit in thin trading
conditions. Spot gold prices have ticked higher from initial intra-day
lows of $1658.05 to highs of around $1662.50/oz a few moments ago.
Market participants will be focused on this Friday's US jobs data in
addition to this week's two-day FOMC meeting, scheduled to conclude on
Wednesday. Spot gold now trades at $1662.10/oz, up $3.40 on the session.
OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading higher Monday after closing the
previous session around unchanged levels. March WTI futures ended
Friday's session 7 cents lower at $95.88 a barrel, after trading in a
$95.43 to $96.56 range. WTI futures have been tied to a narrow trading
range so far this morning ahead of this Friday's US jobs data and a
two-day FOMC meeting which concludes on Wednesday. March WTI futures
have edged their way higher amid thin trading volume to a high of $96.20
a barrel, from intra-day lows of $95.89 and now trade at $96.07 a
barrel, up 19 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading in negative
territory Monday, extending their declines seen from the previous
trading day. February natural gas futures, which expire on Tuesday,
ended Friday's session down 0.2% at $3.444 per million British thermal
units (mln Btu) after trading in a narrow $3.411 to $3.48 range. Some
warmer than anticipated weather forecasts for this week have seen
natural gas prices gap lower this morning, slipping from intra-day highs
of $3.396 per mln Btu to lows of $3.374 and the February contract now
trades at $3.377 per mln Btu, down from Friday's close of $3.444 per mln
Btu.
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500
* Dollar-yen; Y89.50, Y89.85, 90.00, Y91.00, Y91.50
* Cable; $1.5820
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2500
* Aussie; $1.0335, $$1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0550
* Euro-Aussie; A$1.2715
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Germany, France, and Italy. Supply is estimated to be around
E19.0bln, higher than E15.725bln issued last week. First up on Monday will be
Germany who will issue new 12-month Jan 29, 2014 Bubill for up to E3.0bln. In
the afternoon France re-open 3-month Apr 25 BTF for E3.6-E4.0bln, issue new
6-month Jul 11 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014
BTF for between E1.1-E1.5bln. On Tuesday, Italy will issue new 6-month Jul 31
BOT for E8.5bln. In terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we have, France
E7.787bln, Italy E9.775bln and Netherlands E4.78bln, giving potential positive
net cash flow of E3.3bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the Eurozone this week is
scheduled from Germany and Italy -- estimated to be E15.25bln vs E13.01bln this
week. Italy will kick off supply on Monday with issue of a new 2-year zero
coupon Dec 2014 CTZ for between E3.0bln to E4.0bln and issue new 5-year
benchmark linker bond 1.70% Sep 2018 BTPei for between E2.0bln to E2.75bln. On
Wednesday, German re-opens 40-year Benchmark 2.50% Jul 2044 Bund for up to
E2.0bln. Also on Wednesday Italy come back to the market with their end of month
medium/long-term BTP auction, tapping 5-year benchmark 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for
between E2.0bln and E3.0bln and tap 10-year benchmark 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP for
between E2.5bln and E3.5bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there is
redemptions from Spain for E14.3bln and Italy for E21.0bln while coupon payments
amount to E16.845bln from Spain (E7.445bln) and Italy (E9.4bln) - to turn net
cash flow positive to the tune of E38.4bln vs -E13.3 last week. For full details
of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone
Net Cash Flow Matrix.
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento Del Tesoro issues a new 2-year zero
coupon Dec 2014 CTZ for between E3.0-E4.0bln and issue new 5-year linker 1.70%
Sep 2018 BTPei for between E2.0-E2.75bln on Monday. Yield on the old 2-year CTZ
has fallen by around 40bps since the start of the year as market sentiment has
improved and Italy has enjoyed a good start to its issuance program this year.
The grey market is indicating mid-yield of 1.565% for the new 2-year CTZ. The
Sep 2014 CTZ was last sold on Dec 27 for E3.25bln at an average yield of 1.884%
and covered 1.69 times. As for the new 5-year linker 1.70% Sep 2018 BTPei grey
market is indicating a mid-yield of around 1.755%. The last 5-year BTPei auction
was back on Sep 25 where E1.004bln was allotted at average yield 2.46% and
covered 1.75 times. There will be a large BTP redemption of E21.0bln and coupon
payments of E9.4bln which is seen as underpinning demand. Results due to be
announced at 1015GMT.
GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is planning to issue
up to E3.0bln new 12-month Bubill maturing Jan 29, 2014 on Monday. This will be
the first 12-month Bubill auction for 2013 and the first since November,
therefore demand from investors is likely to remain strong, despite the
improvement in market sentiment. In the grey market, mid-yield on the new
12-month Bubill is seen trading around 0.145%. For comparison at the last
12-month T-bill auction back on Nov 26, the treasury allotted E2.73bln at an
average yield of -0.0085%, cover of 1.8 times, and with E270mln or 9% retained
for secondary market operations. At last months sale, the 12-month Eonia rate
was around 0.049%, therefore giving a spread of -5.75bps, currently 12-month
Eonia is seen around 0.245% level. There will be no Bubill redemption next week,
leaving net cash flow negative to the tune of E3.0bln. Results due to be
announced shortly after 1030GMT.
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) will re-open
3-month Apr 25, 2013 BTF for between E3.6-E4.0bln, issue new 6-month Jul 11,
2013 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln, and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014 BTF for
between E1.1-E1.5bln on Monday. BTF yields have continued to move higher during
the course of last week, as the majority of data surprises to the upside.
3-month BTF mid-yield is seen around 0.025%, 6-month mid-yield is around 0.053%,
while 12-month BTF is seen around 0.185%. There will be a BTF redemption this
week of E7.787bln, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of E287mln, which
is seen as underpinning demand. For comparison on Jan 21, the AFT sold E4.394bln
3-month BTF at an average yield of 0.007% with cover of 2.69 times, E1.593bln
6-month BTF at an average yield of 0.037% with cover of 2.96 times, and
E1.594bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.089% with cover of 2.94 times.
Results due to be announced around 1355GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan 28 Italy linker/CTZ auctions
- Jan 29 Italy T-bill auction
- Jan 30 ECB 3-year LTRO 1 year anniversary (E489bln total borrowed)
- Jan 30 Italy BTP auction
- Jan 31 Spain & Greece ban on short-selling due to expire
- Jan 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.775bln
- Jan 31 Spain bond redemption for E14.286bln
- Feb 01 Italy BTP bond redemption for E21.009bln
- Feb 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Feb 07/08 European Leaders summit in Brussels
- Feb 07 Spain sells Bono bonds
- Feb 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.975bln
- Feb 11 Eurogroup meeting
- Feb 12 ECOFIN meeting
- Feb 12 Italy T-bill auction
US: Timeline of Key Events for next few days:
- TBD Confirmation hearing, committee vote, Senate confirmation of Lew as US
Treasury Secretary
- Jan 28-Feb 01 US Senate to meet (tent)
- Jan 28 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-11/15/2042, $1.25-$1.75bn
- Jan 28 US Dallas Fed Mfg Survey for Jan 2013 at 10:30 ET
- Jan 28 UST announces 4wk at 11:00 ET
- Jan 28 UST auctions: $32B 3-month, $28B 6-month bills at 11:30 ET
- Jan 28 UST auctions $35B 2-yr at 13:00 ET
- Jan 29/30 FOMC policy meeting w/ announcement 14:15ET Jan 30, no press conf,
- Jan 29 U.S. Senate expected to vote on House debt ceiling bill
(extends debt-limit to at least May 19, may be pushed further given Apr 15 tax
receipt surge)
- Jan 29 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2020-11/15/2022 $2.75-$3.5bn
- Jan 29 UST auctions 4wk at 11:30 ET
- Jan 29 UST auctions $35B 5-yr at 13:00 ET
EUROPE: For today, the first data release is expected at 0900GMT, with the
release of the EMU December M3 money supply numbers. Also at 0900GMT, the
Italian January ISTAT consumer confidence survey will cross the wires. There are
few scheduled central bank speakers, but at 0930GMT, Financial Stability Board
Chairman Mark Carney is set to give a press briefing, in Zurich.
EUROPEAN PRESS: The Eurozone is not yet in "normal times," European Central Bank
Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said in an interview published Sunday,
warning that slowing the reform pace or failing to deal with Cyprus could still
undo progress at the moment when some peripheral EMU nations are looking to exit
the crisis. Speaking to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, Asmussen flatly
rejected raising the ECB's inflation target, which could upset inflation
expectations that remain "well-anchored" across the Eurozone at around 2%.
UK PRESS: UK Deputy PM Nick Clegg said Sunday there would be no end to the UK's
austerity drive, as it is needed to push down the deficit. However, Clegg said
the government should look at any infrastructure projects, provided they don't
"break the bank."
UK PRESS: UK companies spent a record stg 4.9 billion on redundancy payments in
2012, the Times reports, as companies attempt to streamline operations.
UK PRESS: The Independent says final salary pension schemes are closing at a
record rate, as quantitative easing impacts cash available in pension funds.
UK PRESS: The FT says the Treasury is thinking more of flexible inflation
targeting for the BOE, as opposed to targeting real GDP. The comments come from
Treasury sources, following reports of a conversation in Davos between incoming
BOE Governor Carney and Chancellor George Osborne.
US: The US calendar starts at 1300GMT, with the release of the December Building
Permits Revision. At 1330GMT, the December Durable Goods Orders are released.
Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% in December after gains in the
previous three months. Boeing reported 183 orders in December, up from 124 in
November. At 1430GMT, the MNI Capital Goods Index for the January 25 week will
be released, followed at 1500GMT by the release of the December NAR Pending Home
Sales. At 1530GMT, the MNI Retail Trade Index for the Jan 26 week will cross the
wires. The last data release scheduled for Monday is the January Dallas Fed
manufacturing survey, also expected at 1530GMT.
DOLLAR: Speculative accounts increased their net euro long position, while they
trimmed their net yen short position as of January 22, according to U.S. CFTC
data released Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only
section, excluding options -- showed speculators had a net euro long position of
+21,381 contracts as of Tuesday, compared to last week's net euro long of +7,315
contracts. This is the largest net euro long since July 5, 2011 (+43,194
contracts). This week's net long contrasts to the record net euro long of
+119,538 contracts seen May 15, 2007 and the record net euro short of -214,418
contracts, seen June 5, 2012. Spec accounts had a net yen short of -64,068
contracts as per January 22, versus the prior week's net yen short of -65,727
contracts and the yen short of -94,401 contracts from December 11, which was the
largest net yen short position since July 2007. The euro closed near $1.3320 and
dollar-yen at Y88.70 January 22, which compared to closing levels Friday at
$1.3460 and Y90.85.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3464 after easing off extended NY session
highs of $1.3480, with rate buoyed above $1.3450 into the close. Early sales
into Asia saw rate squeeze down to pressure some of the weaker spec longs, the
dip under $1.3450 to $1.3443 triggering minor stops before fresh demand interest
emerged. Rate recovered to $1.3471 before meeting resistance with rate then
steeling between $1.3450/70 through to the European open. Offers said to remain
in place from above $1.3470, strengthening from $1.3480 through to much reported
barrier interest at $1.3500 ($1.3488 2012 high; $1.3490 50% $1.4940-1.2040
May'11-Jul'12). Large stops have been reported in place through $1.3505/10.
Minor offers then seen into $1.3520 ahead of stronger interest toward $1.3550.
Support $1.3450/40 with stops below. ECB releases M3 data at 0900GMT, with US
durable goods data at 1330GMT to provide the data interest on the day. Interest
for the week with US FOMC and US Q4 GDP Wednesday, ahead of US employment report
Friday. Yen action remains key to direction.
EURO-DOLLAR: Under pressure into early Europe as rate retests overnight lows
into $1.3443. Stops seen in place on a break of $1.3440, which if triggered to
open a deeper move toward $1.3410/00. Resistance seen between $1.3470/80, a
break to expose barrier interest at $1.3500, with large offers noted ahead to
protect. Large stops seen placed between $1.3510/15.
CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.5799, off a session recovery high of $1.5827,
after rate had been pressed to extended lows of $1.5745 following the release of
disappointing Q4 GDP data. Early Asia pressured cable off an early posted high
of $1.5795, the early market, especially, thinned by the Australia Day holiday,
with sales taking the rate down to $1.5756 before it picked up fresh demand
interest that allowed rate to recover to $1.5786. The recovery proved short
lived with sales then pressing the rate back to $1.5754 before it settled
between $1.5755/70 ahead of the European open. A very light domestic calendar
Monday will leave rate to track euro-dollar moves, as it mainly did through
Asia, though activity in euro-sterling should pick up again in Europe with end
of month Activity likely to put added pressure on sterling. The cross extended
Friday's high of stg0.8536 to stg0.8548 overnight, with traders turning sights
onto the next reported barrier at stg0.8550. Cable support remains in place
between $1.5755/45, with stops placed on a break of $1.5740. Resistance
$1.5800/10 ahead of $1.5830.
CABLE: Found some support between $1.5725/20, but the cross breaking above
stg0.8550, and now building, seen adding added pressure. Cable extends lows to
$1.5717. Next support seen from around $1.5705 through to $1.5690. Stops below.
Rate currently trades around $1.5720.
YEN: Dollar-yen achieved a technical target at Y91.20 (Mar'12 high) on Friday,
the extended rally meeting willing profit take selling at this level which
countered further upside gains. The rate pulled back to Y90.77 but the
underlying buoyant tone remained in place into the close at Y90.90. Fresh demand
into Asia edged rate back to retest Friday highs, with a push from around Y91.10
able to extend move to Y91.26 before momentum faded. Rate dipped back to Y90.85
before it settled in a range around Y91.00 ahead of the European open. Technical
traders note channel resistance coming through around the Y91.25 level, with
offers noted from this level, strengthening toward large barrier interest at
Y91.50. Stops noted above this level, which if triggered to open a move on
toward Y91.70/85 ahead of Y92.00. Support seen back at Y90.85/70 with stops
below. Euro-yen extended its recent recovery to Y122.91 in Asia (NY high
Y122.78) with rate easing off highs to settled between Y122.20/60 into Europe.
Traders remain open to reaction from Japanese officials, ex-EconMin Takenaka
reported saying in the WSJ that yen has room to fall further toward Y95.00
(Takenaka a speculated candidate for new BOJ Governor).
JAPAN: Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters that the upwardly revised 2.5%
real GDP forecast for fiscal 2013 by the government (previous forecast +1.7%)
reflects lower downside risks to global growth. He repeated that the
government's top priority is to revive economic vitality.
JAPAN: Finance Minister Taro Aso also repeated his recent comments that the yen
is in a correction phase after posting an excessive rise earlier.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Monday. The
Nikkei 225 was lower by 102.34 points, or 0.94%, at 10824.31. Into the close,
the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 2.32 points at 914.77. Market breadth
indicators saw 71 issue higher, 145 lower and 9 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.75 bn shares.
AUSSIE: Australia Day holiday made for thin trading through the overnight
session, with moves dictated by euro moves. Rate saw an early low of $1.0408,
but demand placed into $1.0400 managed to cushion. Recovery from here saw rate
edge to $1.0430 where it met decent resistance. A dip to $1.0415/10 ahead of
Europe was being corrected into the new session, the rate pushing back up to
retest that overnight high. Offers seen from $1.0430 through to $1.0445 with
stops reported above. Below $1.0400 and further demand seen into $1.0390 with
stops placed on a break below.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Monday after
posting a two-week low during the previous trading day. Spot gold ended
Friday's session $9.25 lower at $1658.70/oz after falling to lows of
$1655.39/oz as demand for haven assets continued to decline after Wall
Street posted another set of gains Friday for the eighth consecutive
day. Some moderate physical demand has helped gold prices edge their way
higher during Asian traded hours this morning, albeit in thin trading
conditions. Spot gold prices have ticked higher from initial intra-day
lows of $1658.05 to highs of around $1662.50/oz a few moments ago.
Market participants will be focused on this Friday's US jobs data in
addition to this week's two-day FOMC meeting, scheduled to conclude on
Wednesday. Spot gold now trades at $1662.10/oz, up $3.40 on the session.
OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading higher Monday after closing the
previous session around unchanged levels. March WTI futures ended
Friday's session 7 cents lower at $95.88 a barrel, after trading in a
$95.43 to $96.56 range. WTI futures have been tied to a narrow trading
range so far this morning ahead of this Friday's US jobs data and a
two-day FOMC meeting which concludes on Wednesday. March WTI futures
have edged their way higher amid thin trading volume to a high of $96.20
a barrel, from intra-day lows of $95.89 and now trade at $96.07 a
barrel, up 19 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading in negative
territory Monday, extending their declines seen from the previous
trading day. February natural gas futures, which expire on Tuesday,
ended Friday's session down 0.2% at $3.444 per million British thermal
units (mln Btu) after trading in a narrow $3.411 to $3.48 range. Some
warmer than anticipated weather forecasts for this week have seen
natural gas prices gap lower this morning, slipping from intra-day highs
of $3.396 per mln Btu to lows of $3.374 and the February contract now
trades at $3.377 per mln Btu, down from Friday's close of $3.444 per mln
Btu.
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500
* Dollar-yen; Y89.50, Y89.85, 90.00, Y91.00, Y91.50
* Cable; $1.5820
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2500
* Aussie; $1.0335, $$1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0550
* Euro-Aussie; A$1.2715
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Germany, France, and Italy. Supply is estimated to be around
E19.0bln, higher than E15.725bln issued last week. First up on Monday will be
Germany who will issue new 12-month Jan 29, 2014 Bubill for up to E3.0bln. In
the afternoon France re-open 3-month Apr 25 BTF for E3.6-E4.0bln, issue new
6-month Jul 11 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014
BTF for between E1.1-E1.5bln. On Tuesday, Italy will issue new 6-month Jul 31
BOT for E8.5bln. In terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we have, France
E7.787bln, Italy E9.775bln and Netherlands E4.78bln, giving potential positive
net cash flow of E3.3bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the Eurozone this week is
scheduled from Germany and Italy -- estimated to be E15.25bln vs E13.01bln this
week. Italy will kick off supply on Monday with issue of a new 2-year zero
coupon Dec 2014 CTZ for between E3.0bln to E4.0bln and issue new 5-year
benchmark linker bond 1.70% Sep 2018 BTPei for between E2.0bln to E2.75bln. On
Wednesday, German re-opens 40-year Benchmark 2.50% Jul 2044 Bund for up to
E2.0bln. Also on Wednesday Italy come back to the market with their end of month
medium/long-term BTP auction, tapping 5-year benchmark 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for
between E2.0bln and E3.0bln and tap 10-year benchmark 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP for
between E2.5bln and E3.5bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there is
redemptions from Spain for E14.3bln and Italy for E21.0bln while coupon payments
amount to E16.845bln from Spain (E7.445bln) and Italy (E9.4bln) - to turn net
cash flow positive to the tune of E38.4bln vs -E13.3 last week. For full details
of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone
Net Cash Flow Matrix.
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento Del Tesoro issues a new 2-year zero
coupon Dec 2014 CTZ for between E3.0-E4.0bln and issue new 5-year linker 1.70%
Sep 2018 BTPei for between E2.0-E2.75bln on Monday. Yield on the old 2-year CTZ
has fallen by around 40bps since the start of the year as market sentiment has
improved and Italy has enjoyed a good start to its issuance program this year.
The grey market is indicating mid-yield of 1.565% for the new 2-year CTZ. The
Sep 2014 CTZ was last sold on Dec 27 for E3.25bln at an average yield of 1.884%
and covered 1.69 times. As for the new 5-year linker 1.70% Sep 2018 BTPei grey
market is indicating a mid-yield of around 1.755%. The last 5-year BTPei auction
was back on Sep 25 where E1.004bln was allotted at average yield 2.46% and
covered 1.75 times. There will be a large BTP redemption of E21.0bln and coupon
payments of E9.4bln which is seen as underpinning demand. Results due to be
announced at 1015GMT.
GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is planning to issue
up to E3.0bln new 12-month Bubill maturing Jan 29, 2014 on Monday. This will be
the first 12-month Bubill auction for 2013 and the first since November,
therefore demand from investors is likely to remain strong, despite the
improvement in market sentiment. In the grey market, mid-yield on the new
12-month Bubill is seen trading around 0.145%. For comparison at the last
12-month T-bill auction back on Nov 26, the treasury allotted E2.73bln at an
average yield of -0.0085%, cover of 1.8 times, and with E270mln or 9% retained
for secondary market operations. At last months sale, the 12-month Eonia rate
was around 0.049%, therefore giving a spread of -5.75bps, currently 12-month
Eonia is seen around 0.245% level. There will be no Bubill redemption next week,
leaving net cash flow negative to the tune of E3.0bln. Results due to be
announced shortly after 1030GMT.
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) will re-open
3-month Apr 25, 2013 BTF for between E3.6-E4.0bln, issue new 6-month Jul 11,
2013 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln, and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014 BTF for
between E1.1-E1.5bln on Monday. BTF yields have continued to move higher during
the course of last week, as the majority of data surprises to the upside.
3-month BTF mid-yield is seen around 0.025%, 6-month mid-yield is around 0.053%,
while 12-month BTF is seen around 0.185%. There will be a BTF redemption this
week of E7.787bln, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of E287mln, which
is seen as underpinning demand. For comparison on Jan 21, the AFT sold E4.394bln
3-month BTF at an average yield of 0.007% with cover of 2.69 times, E1.593bln
6-month BTF at an average yield of 0.037% with cover of 2.96 times, and
E1.594bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.089% with cover of 2.94 times.
Results due to be announced around 1355GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan 28 Italy linker/CTZ auctions
- Jan 29 Italy T-bill auction
- Jan 30 ECB 3-year LTRO 1 year anniversary (E489bln total borrowed)
- Jan 30 Italy BTP auction
- Jan 31 Spain & Greece ban on short-selling due to expire
- Jan 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.775bln
- Jan 31 Spain bond redemption for E14.286bln
- Feb 01 Italy BTP bond redemption for E21.009bln
- Feb 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Feb 07/08 European Leaders summit in Brussels
- Feb 07 Spain sells Bono bonds
- Feb 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.975bln
- Feb 11 Eurogroup meeting
- Feb 12 ECOFIN meeting
- Feb 12 Italy T-bill auction
US: Timeline of Key Events for next few days:
- TBD Confirmation hearing, committee vote, Senate confirmation of Lew as US
Treasury Secretary
- Jan 28-Feb 01 US Senate to meet (tent)
- Jan 28 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-11/15/2042, $1.25-$1.75bn
- Jan 28 US Dallas Fed Mfg Survey for Jan 2013 at 10:30 ET
- Jan 28 UST announces 4wk at 11:00 ET
- Jan 28 UST auctions: $32B 3-month, $28B 6-month bills at 11:30 ET
- Jan 28 UST auctions $35B 2-yr at 13:00 ET
- Jan 29/30 FOMC policy meeting w/ announcement 14:15ET Jan 30, no press conf,
- Jan 29 U.S. Senate expected to vote on House debt ceiling bill
(extends debt-limit to at least May 19, may be pushed further given Apr 15 tax
receipt surge)
- Jan 29 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2020-11/15/2022 $2.75-$3.5bn
- Jan 29 UST auctions 4wk at 11:30 ET
- Jan 29 UST auctions $35B 5-yr at 13:00 ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
no to start, kac mnie meczy
- roberttheus
- Maniak
- Posty: 1956
- Rejestracja: 28 gru 2011, 21:52
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
Wychodzi na moje.. ale pomału zastanawiam się nad kupnem gbp/jpy mimo że może jeszcze trochę opaść 

windsurfing na falach trendu
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
E J do wgladu na koniec korekty okolice 120 45-63 / 119 70
-- Dodano: pn 28-01-2013, 10:06 --
jesli mamy patrzec na nalogie z poprzednich korekt
-- Dodano: pn 28-01-2013, 10:06 --
jesli mamy patrzec na nalogie z poprzednich korekt
- roberttheus
- Maniak
- Posty: 1956
- Rejestracja: 28 gru 2011, 21:52
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
czyżby zwrot na jenach..?? i edku?
windsurfing na falach trendu
- richard.cali
- Pasjonat
- Posty: 924
- Rejestracja: 19 lis 2009, 13:36
Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 28.01.2013
Tacy już tu nie postują, są jak dinozaury na tym wątku, ja się pokuszę o spekulę, kolejny Sell 1.3444, ja się mogę mylićMpapiez pisze:Geniusz ! Rekin Forexu ! Kupuje na oporze i sprzedaje na wsparciu ! %-)micjat pisze:Co do EUR/USD to do czasu otwarcia ameryki zakładam dwa schematy:
sell 1,3424 tp1 1,3389 tp2 1,3340
buy 1,3469 tp 1,3500 (?)
*Na podstawie własnej analizy.

"Analitycy i brokerzy pozostają, zmieniają się tylko inwestorzy"...Mr. Wong Hong Kong sierpień 2010
W 2012 ZEUSS obalił tezę Wonga
2013- Team Zeussa
W 2012 ZEUSS obalił tezę Wonga

2013- Team Zeussa
