DayTrading: Wtorek 8.01.2013

[pkubiu]

bardzo ciekawy dzien nas czeka moze sie okazac ze to zdementuja... albo beda rozmawiac o warunkach i na pare górek/dołków informacji wystarczy...

słoneczko możesz przybliżyć co dokładnie teraz buja Jenem, bo dużo L tam mam

[movinghead]

EURUSD niby się rwie do góry ale coś nie może.... jednak spadek nie był jakiś hardcorowy zeby moc sie na szorty przestawiac w 100%

[Tommy_Boss]

EURUSD niby się rwie do góry ale coś nie może.... jednak spadek nie był jakiś hardcorowy zeby moc sie na szorty przestawiac w 100%

No nie wiem ale korekta powinna teraz być i to ładna tak 1,3070 minimum

[crok.]

dobra, dzis to chyba u.chf bedzie krolem wzrostow

[ZielonaMgielka]

Momentum znacznie spadlko i aktualnie cena konsoliduje ale nadal nie przetestowalismy silnego obszaru podazy (D1) w obrebie 1.3160. Przed spadkami moze nas bronic poziom 1.31090 a pozniej silny poziom popytu w skali intraday @ 1.3065 wiec uwaga na fakeouty

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: One of the highlights today sees German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos take
part in conference hosted by Die Welt, in Berlin. Merkel is also due to hold
bilateral talks with the Greek PM. At 0700GMT, Germany's November trade balance
is set for release, with analysts looking for a number of E15.88 bn. At 0745GMT,
the French November foreign trade numbers are due. ECB Executive Board member
Joerg Asmussen speaks in Berlin from 0830GMT, although under Chatham House
rules, at the conference hosted by Die Welt. ECB Governing Council member
Patrick Honohan speaks from 1000GMT at a BIS seminar, in Basel.

EUROPE: (2) There is a raft of EMU data due for release at 1000GMT, including
November retail trade, December economic sentiment numbers, December business
climate indicator and the November unemployment rate. At 1100GMT, German
November manufacturing orders will cross the screens, with consensus forecasts
looking for a fall of 1.4% m/m.

EUROPE: EU Commission head Barroso, speaking in Lisbon Monday, declared the euro
saved and the euro crisis over. He told an audience "I think we can say that the
existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome," the Guardian
said.



UK PRESS: The total number of "approved" staff working in London's financial
services industry stands at the lowest level since the summer of 2004, the
Telegraph reports. The total of those employed by banks in front-line positions
stood at 152,000 at the end of the year, down from the peak of 170,000 seen in
mid- 2007, FSA database enquiries reveal, the paper says.



US: The US calendar kicks off at 1245GMT, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman
Store Sales numbers for the Dec 5 week. At 1355GMT, the Redbook Average for the
same week is scheduled for release. The January IBD/TIPP Optimism Index will be
released at 1500GMT. From 1700GMT, the U.S. Energy Information Administration
releases its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, to be followed at 1845GMT by a
briefing. Fed speakers on the roster for Tuesday includes Richmond Federal
Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker, speaking on the economic outlook to the
South Carolina Business & Industry Political Education Committee in Columbia.
Late US data will be released at 2000GMT, when the November Consumer Credit data
and the December Treasury Allotments numbers will cross the wires.

US PRESS: Fresh analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center suggests the US
Government could "default on its debt" as early as Feb 15, the Washington Post
reports, a fortnight earlier than previously suggested.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3115, after rate had been pressured to a high
through the NY session at $1.3120 on general dollar losses. Early Asia extended
this recovery to $1.3128. Rate eased lower, gaining momentum on the back of post
Tokyo fix euro-yen sales that took rate back to post overnight lows at $1.3104.
Rate jumped back to $1.3130 on reaction to Japanese FinMin Aso comments that
Japan will use FX reserves to buy ESM bonds. Further demand extended the
reaction to $1.3140 before rate met decent supply, with offers to be placed
between $1.3140/50. Rate drifted back to $1.3117 before settling between
$1.3120/30 into Europe. Traders note that ESM is expected to launch long term
funding in 2H 2013. The Japan FinMin comment was seen euro-dollar positive,
following on from recent similar comments from BOK and PBOC, and seen
highlighting the reserve diversification away from the dollar. ESM funding
expected to launch H2 2013. Offers remain $1.3140/50, a break to open a move
toward $1.3180/85 ($1.3185 61.8% $1.3300-1.2998). Support $1.3105/00, $1.3080.
Busy morning for German and EZ data, though Thursday's ECB rate decision and
press conference overshadows.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6117 after rate had been pressured had been pulled up
to $1.6118 as it tracked euro-dollar's stronger recovery. This move allowed
euro-sterling to retrace earlier losses, trading Monday down to stg0.8105, to
stg0.8150 in NY. Cable extended its recovery to $1.6129 in early Asia, the rate
continuing to track euro-dollar moves as the cross was contained within a tight
stg0.8137/51 range. Cable eased to $1.6102, the move influenced by post Tokyo
fix euro-yen sales, with recovery efforts capped at $1.6120. Cable was resting
heavy on the late Asia posted lows at $1.6101 into early Europe, but demand into
$1.6100 so far able to cushion. Below $1.6100 and rate can ease toward
$1.6085/80, with stops below, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.6065/45.
Resistance $1.6130 ahead of $1.6150/55 and $1.6190/1.6200. Euro-sterling offers
stg0.8150/55, stg90.8170. Bids stg0.8125/20, stg0.8105/00. A light domestic UK
calendar with moves to come from euro-dollar action.


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y87.78, off session lows of Y87.63 with the
dollar having traded generally soft through the NY session. Rate came under
fresh sell pressure into Asia, some linked the move lower to a report in the WSJ
that Japanese corporates were warning of the effect a rapid depreciation in the
yen would have on production costs. However, this report had been released
during the NY afternoon with little effect seen. Most saw stops below Y87.50 as
being targeted, the break of which took rate to extended lows of Y87.24. CTA and
importer demand bought into the dip which took rate back to Y87.55. Rate eased
to Y87.41 as euro-yen saw post Tokyo fix supply, but rate bounced back on
reaction to FinMin Aso comments that Japan could buy ESM bonds with reserves.
Dollar-yen spiked to Y87.83 but traders realised that this reaction was seen
premature, ESM begins issuance 2H 2013, and using reserves would have little FX
effect. Rate eased back toward Y87.40, recovered to Y87.57 before moving down to
Y87.33 into the European open. Ichimoku tech analysts highlight the 5-dma at
Y87.61, seen key on a closing basis, though a rising Kijun line keeps underlying
tone positive.

NEWS: JAPAN NIKKEI 225 INDEX ENDS DOWN 0.86% AT 10508.06


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Tuesday after
posting some losses the previous day. Spot gold ended Monday's session
down $8.70 at $1646.95/oz after a choppy session that saw technical
trading dominate amid a lack of new US economic data. Gold prices have
continued to range around the $1650/oz mark during Asian traded hours
this morning, with market participants now eyeing the ECB, which meets
Thursday. Spot gold prices have been tied to a fairly narrow range so
far this morning, after some Asian physical demand saw prices trade an
intra-day high of $1653.05/oz. Since then, spot gold has slipped back to
lows of $1646.85/oz. Metals brokers report limited activity so far this
morning, with light bids noted working below at $1640/oz. Sell interest
remians above the market at $1666/67. Spot gold now trades at
$1647.70/oz, up $0.75 on the session.


OIL: February NYMEX WTI prices are trading marginally lower Tuesday
after posting some slim gains during the previous trading day. February
WTI futures ended Monday's session 10 cents higher at $93.19 a barrel,
marking the highest WTI closing price since September 18, 2012, after
trading in a $92.42 to $93.35 range. WTI futures have been tied to a
narrow trading range so far during Asian traded hours this morning,
slipping from an intra-day high of $93.35 to trade at session lows of
$93.07 a barrel a few moments ago. In terms of supply, weekly inventory
data to be released this week by the American Petroleum Institute (API)
and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) are expected to show
an increase of 1.5mln barrels in US commercial crude oil stocks for the
week ended January 4, following year-end de-stocking, Platts says citing
its survey of analysts. The analysts expect crude oil stocks to have
clawed back a modest 1.5mln barrels in the latest reporting week, after
an 11mln barrel drawdown in the week ended Dec 28. February WTI futures
now trade $93.10 a barrel, down 9 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading modestly
lower Tuesday extending their moderate declines from the previous day.
February natural gas futures ended Monday's session down 2.1 cents at
$3.266 per million British thermal units (mln Btu) after trading in a
$3.238 to $3.352 range. Prices became pressured, after some early
buying, by fairly mild near-term weather forecasts and an EIA report
which showed October output at a new record. The Energy Information
Administration said total US natural gas demand rose 8.4% in October
from the previous year to 1.888 trillion cubic feet (c/f), the highest
for an October reading since EIA data began in 2001. February natural
gas prices have edged their way lower this morning from initial highs of
$3.281 to an intra-day low of $3.252 and now trade at $3.253 per mln
Btu, down from last night's close of $3.266 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3100, $1.3200
* Dollar-yen; Y87.00, Y88.00
* Cable $1.6040, $1.6050
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9260
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0500, $1.0520
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.2600



EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Greece, Belgium and the ESM all come to the Eurozone
sovereign t-bill market Tuesday. Greece will be the first up with plans to issue
E750mln new 4-week Feb 8 T-bill and issue E1.25bln new 26-week Jul 12 T-bill.
Belgium will be next with a re-open of a 3-month Apr 18 T-bill and re-open of a
6-month Jun 20 T-bill for between E2.8-E3.3bln. ESM then plan to issue a new
3-month Apr 11 Bill, for up to E2.0bln. To re-cap on Monday Germany sold
E3.515bln 6-month bubill at average yield -0.0091%. Netherlands alloted E2.83bln
3-month DTC at average yield -0.014% and E1.07bln 12-month DTC at average yield
0.003%. Still to come this week, Italy plans to issue new 12-month Jan 14, 2014
BOT, with confirmation and size to be announced on Monday evening.


GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) is
planning to issue E750mln new 4-week Feb 8, 2013 T-bill and E1.25bln new 26-week
Jul 12 T-bill Tuesday. With Greek 10-year yield having fallen back sharply since
the successful debt buyback back in December, it is far from certain what level
of interest the Greek government will pay to issue short term debt. The PDMA
will once again allocate an extra 30% of amount auctioned, in non-comp bids and
a further 30% in second day bids, bringing total amount to be issued to E3.2bln.
There will be E5.4bln in T-bill redemptions on Jan 11, leaving net cash flow
positive to the tune of E2.2bln which is seen underpinning demand at the
auction. At the last 4-week T-bill auction on Dec 11, 2012 the PDMA sold
E2.7625bln at average yield of 3.99% and covered 1.30 times. While at the last
26-week T-bill auction, also back on Dec 11, 2012 the PDMA sold E1.625bln at
average yield of 4.38% and covered 1.54 times. Results due to be announced
around 1015GMT.

BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a 3-month T-bill
maturing Apr 18, 2013, and re-open a 6-month T-bill maturing Jun 20, 2013 for an
indicative amount of E2.8-E3.3bln on Tuesday. This will be the first of two taps
of the Apr 18 T-bill, and with E3.256bln outstanding, demand could be lower than
expected, but the rise in yields over the last week should offset some of this
weakness. Mid-yield is seen trading around 0.01%, while at the last 3-month
T-bill auction on Dec 11, 2013 the Belgium Treasury allotted E210mln at average
yield -0.032% and covered 8.77 times. As for the 6-month Jun 20 T-bill this will
be the last time this issue will be tapped until beginning of March, and with a
small outstanding amount of only E1.685bln, and coupled with the recent increase
in yield above zero percent, demand is expected to be high. Mid-yield is around
0.022%, while at the last 6-month T-bill auction on Dec 4, 2013 E574mln was
allotted at average yield of -0.01% and covered 5.46 times. There will be a
T-bill redemption this week of E2.921bln leaving net cash flow negative to the
tune of 379mln. Results are due to be announced around 1040GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan ? Ireland syndicated re-opening 5.50% October 2017 IGB
- Jan 08 Spain Treasury presents 2013 funding strategy at 1000GMT
- Jan 08 ESM sells new 3-month Bills for E2.0bln
- Jan 08 Bank of Portugal releases Winter Economic Bulletin
- Jan 08 German Merkel, Greece Samaras to brief press in Berlin
- Jan 09 Eurozone Q3 GDP (3rd estimate)
- Jan 10 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Jan 10 Spain sells new 2.75% 2015 Bono,tap 2018-/2026 bond up to E5bln
- Jan 10 EU Barroso meets Ireland PM Kenny in Dublin
- Jan 11 Italy BTP bond auctions
- Jan 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E11.5bln
- Jan 14 Italy 12-month T-bill auction for E8.5bln
- Jan 15 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills
- Jan 16 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Jan 18 Spain T-bill redemption for E5.395bln

[modzel1991]

dobra, dzis to chyba u.chf bedzie krolem wzrostow

właśnie obserwuje co się dzieje na tej parze. często na niej grasz? wszedłem L 0,9219 i zastanawiam się czy przetestuje wsparcie w okolicach 0,9170 czy już teraz wystrzeli

[movinghead]

ja czekam na test 3090 na EURU.

[Asset]

http://stooq.pl/mol/?id=297

Witold Koziński z NBP ocenił, że zbyt szybkie umocnienie złotego może się spotkać z reakcją NBP. Można to zatem potraktować jako słowną interwencję. Złoty osłabia się obecnie do euro i dolara, choć ta wypowiedź jest tylko jednym z elementów, po zejściu eurodolara, czy słabszym początku europejskiej części sesji na rynkach akcji.

[Konrad Pustelnik]

EUR/USD
poziom 1.3100-05 wygląda na niezłe wsparcie na M30 i w tym momencie moim zdaniem pierwsze przetestujemy opór w okolicach 1.3045 zanim ewentualnie zaliczymy korektę. Lub poleci pod 1.37 i wtedy jakaś nawrotka.