DayTrading: Środa 2.01.2013

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: European data today sees the flash HICP from Germany once the remaining
state data is released. The state CPIs are forecast at 0.6% m/m, 1.9% y/y with
the median for the HICP release at 0.8% m/m, 2.0% y/y. France releases car
registrations data at 0800GMT, while at the same time, Spain HICP and
unemployment data is due. However, the main attention for Europe on Wednesday
will likely be on the flash/Manufacturing PMI releases, which include Spain at
0813GMT, Italy at 0843GMT, France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and the main
EMU data at 0858GMT.



UK: The UK also releases the Manufacturing CIPS/Markit PMI for December at
0930GMT. The November manufacturing sector PMI showed some stabilisation of
output although depletion of orders backlogs appeared to have been an
influential factor. That said, export orders remain on a negative trend. The
recent Confederation of British Industry survey for December showed a stronger
tone in the sector, with order books rising and output expectations also on the
increase. Continuing global economic uncertainty suggests however that the
sector will do little to prevent the much-anticipated contraction in overall UK
economic output in Q4.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph cites leading economists in their own poll saying the UK
faces another year of low growth, rising unemployment and tight wages, accusing
the UK government of hoping "something just turns up" to lead to recovery. As
part of their poll, they note the CEBR saying there is a 50% chance of a
triple-dip recession.

UK PRESS: The Times names Nomura, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, JP Morgan and
UBS as banks facing potential legal action over complex derivative deals done
with Italian local authorities since 1990, saying the action may force the banks
to pay "hundreds of millions" in compensation.

UK PRESS: The US economy was again teetering on the edge of the fiscal cliff
last night as Republicans in the House of Representatives are set to spurn a
budget compromise passed in a rare but overwhelming bipartisan vote in the
Senate earlier Tuesday, The FT reports. Congress has until Thursday to pass a
deal in both houses, otherwise the legislation codifying any budget agreement
will lapse with the swearing-in of the new Congress, elected in November, the
report says.



US: US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, followed by
more weekly data at 1245GMT when the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data is released
and at 1355GMT when the Redbook Average is released. The Markit US PMI is due at
1358GMT, while data at 1500GMT includes the ISM Index, Prices Paid, Construction
Spending and the Help-wanted Online index. The ISM manufacturing index is
expected to rise to a reading of 50.2 in December after dipping to 49.5 in
November. The regional data already released have suggested new orders are
starting to pick up. Construction spending is expected to rise 0.7% in November,
as building permits rose sharply in November. Data continues at 1530GMT with the
Dallas Fed Services Survey, while at 1900GMT, the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes
are released.

US: FISCAL CLIFF: After a day of public agonizing and intense vote
counting, House Republican leaders allowed the House to vote Tuesday night on
the Senate-drafted fiscal cliff package that was approved on a bipartisan vote.
The House approved the Senate's package on a 257-to-167 vote. Now that the House
and Senate have approved the bill in identical form, it will go to President
Barack Obama for his signature. At a White House briefing after the House vote,
Obama confirmed he will sign the bill and is eager to continue work on
additional deficit reduction.

US: FISCAL CLIFF: The package Congress will send Obama will extend
Bush-era tax cuts on the first $400,000 of income for individuals and $450,000
for couples. Tax rates on capital gains and dividends will increase from 15% to
20% for those above these income thresholds. The package will slightly increase
estate taxes, so the rate rises from 35% to 40% on estates over $5 million for
an individual. The package makes a permanent adjustment to the alternative
minimum tax, halts a scheduled 27% reduction in payments to Medicare providers,
and extends unemployment insurance benefits for a year. It allows the two
percentage point reduction in payroll taxes to expire. It extends a host of
narrower business tax breaks. The talks struggled for several days over how to
deal with the coming $110 billion in across-the-board spending cuts for 2013
that are scheduled to begin in early January. The package suspends the first two
months of the scheduled across-the-board cuts, replacing them with a mix of
additional revenues and spending savings.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Monday at $1.3182, the rate recovered off
pullback lows of $1.3173 after earlier posting a high of $1.3228. Early
Asian demand lifted euro-dollar to $1.3220 on hopes to resolve the
fiscal cliff, before profit take sales soon eased to trade a tight
range. Macro demand re-tested intraday highs, before the rate spiked to
$1.3300 as news hit the wires that the US Senate and House of
Representatives passed a bill by 257 votes to 167 in order to avert the
Fiscal cliff. Risk appetite increased throughout the session, before the
pair eased to $1.3270 ahead of Europe. On the topside initial resistance
seen at $1.3308 (19 Dec high), with stops behind on a break of $1.3320.
Through here and strong offers ahead of the $1.3350 barrier, with stops
set ($1.3349 - Upper Bollinger band), more strong offers at $1.3380.
Data release light in the US today with highlights from ISM
Manufacturing at 1500GMT.

EURO-DOLLAR: German corporate a seller in recent trade, dealers flash
up. Rate slips 10 pips to $1.3275 with resistance seen into $1.3300
(Asian high), through here opens techs at $1.3308 (19 Dec high), stops
set on a break of $1.3320.


CABLE: Cable consolidated gains and closed in NY Monday at $1.6235, the
rate having eased off intraday highs of $1.6274. Sterling demand around
the NY close added weight to the cross and the pair sat heavy at session
lows of stg0.8105. Cable trade opened flat in Asia, before the rate
slowly ground higher to $1.6270 on euro-dollar demand. The rate spiked
to fresh 16 month highs of $1.6381 as news hit the wires that the US
Senate and House of Representatives had approved a deal to avert going
over the fiscal cliff. Cable immediately slipped back to $1.6360 and
with further profit take sales eased to $1.6320 ahead of the European
open. On the topside offers reported into $1.6380, a break opens tech
resistance at $1.6390 (76.4% of $1.6747-1.5235), ahead of strong offers
into $1.6400. Euro-sterling held firm above stg0.8100 and climbed to
stg0.8152 on the fiscal cliff announcement, the rate later eased to
stg0.8130. Data release light in the UK today with highlights from PMI
Manufacturing for December at 0930GMT.


DOLLAR-YEN: Dollar-yen lifted to fresh 29 month highs of Y86.79 in late
NY trade Monday after positive headlines on fiscal cliff negotiations.
The rate remained in consolidation mode and pared light gains to close
around Y86.73. Euro-yen mirrored the dollar move and after a tight
European session surged in the US afternoon to close at Y114.47.
Dollar-yen opened heavy in Asia and slipped to Y86.54, demand into
Y86.50 cushioned moves and the rate recovered to Y86.65. The pair
extended gains through the Tokyo fix, before taking out the Y87.00
barrier on news that the US Senate and House of Representatives had
agreed on a fiscal cliff deal. Stops were flushed on the move and
general risk appetite increased as the pair ground to fresh highs
of Y87.33 and remains buoyant ahead of the European open. Euro-yen
slipped to Y114.18 in early Asia, before bouncing off lows through the
fix to Y114.90. The cross spiked to Y115.99 on fiscal cliff approval
but failed to take out the Y116.00 barrier, later easing to Y115.75.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading higher Wednesday extending its gains
from the previous trading day. Spot gold ended the last trading day of
2012 up 6% on the year at $1675.92/oz, posting gains for the 12th
consecutive year. Gold prices have continued to extend their recovery
this morning, from their end of year dip, advancing to highs of around
$1684/oz, underpinned by a positive showing from other risk assets after
the US house passed the fiscal cliff measure with a vote of 257 to 167.
The US fiscal cliff resolution has seen US dollar prices moderately
weaker also lending a hand to the precious metal. Spot gold prices had
initially printed lows of $1670.48/oz during Asian traded hours this
morning. Spot gold remains in positive territory, currently trading at
$1682.30/oz, up $6.38 on the session.


OIL: February NYMEX WTI prices are trading higher Wednesday as risk
sentiment gets a boost after the US House passed the fiscal cliff
measure with a vote of 257 to 167. After a day of public agonizing and
intense vote counting, House Republican leaders allowed the House to
vote Tuesday night on the Senate-drafted fiscal cliff package that was
approved on a bipartisan vote. The House approved the Senate's package
on a 257-to-167 vote. Now that the House and Senate have approved the
bill in identical form, it will go to President Barack Obama for his
signature. Risk assets have reacted positively to the news, with
February WTI prices advancing from lows of $91.56 to intra-day highs of
$92.83 a barrel and now trade at $92.80, up 98 cents from the previous
close of $91.82 a barrel.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading marginally
lower Wednesday, extending their losses from the previous trading day.
February natural gas futures ended the session more than 3% lower on
Monday as the outlook for moderating temperatures and weaker demand had
a negative impact on prices. February natural gas futures ended 11.8
cents lower, or 3.4%, at $3.351 per million British thermal units (mln
Btu). Prices remain slightly softer this morning after a spike lower to
$3.050 was soon erased after initial highs of $3.358 per mln Btu.
February natural gas futures now trade at $3.329 per mln Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000 NY cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3100
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8050, stg0.8115
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0450
* Dollar-swiss; Chf0.9250


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is
scheduled from France and Germany and estimated around E13.0bln vs E9.12bln last
week. Germany kicks off 2013 issuance on Wednesday with re-opening of its 2-year
benchmark 0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz issue for up to E5.0bln. On Thursday, France
taps its 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT, 3.50% Apr 2020 OAT, 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT and 5.75%
Oct 2032 OAT for between E7.0bln-E8.0bln indicative size. Overall, this supply
is outweighed by strong redemption payments from Italy E11.83bln and Germany
E24.0bln, with coupon payments from Italy E0.8bln and Germany E11.7bln -- giving
a positive cash flow of E35.3bln vs +4.2bln last week. For full details of
forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net
Cash Flow Matrix.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens its 2-year benchmark
0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz issue Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. The auction today kicks
off eurozone issuance for 2013 and the final re-opening of this issue before the
DFA launches a new Mar 2015 Schatz on Feb 13. The issue trades at -0.0065%
mid-yield -- well above rich levels of -0.04% traded mid-November. The key
factor underpinning demand is that the issue is the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD)
into the March futures contract. In addition, positive cash flows from Germany
resulting from redemption of 4.50% 2013 Bund for E24.0bln on Jan 4 and coupon
payments for E11.7bln, also seen supporting. Moreover, historic results have
been impressive. The last re-opening on Dec 5, E3.3115bln was alloted at an
average yield of -0.01% and covered 1.9 times, with the Buba retaining 17.2% of
the sale. The inaugural Schatz auction on Nov 14, E4.323bln was alloted at an
average yield -0.02% and bid-to-cover of 1.90 times, with Buba retaining 13.5%
of the sale. The average cover ratio of the last 5-auctions is 1.88 times.
Auction results due shortly after bidding closes at 1030GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan 02 European Dec manufacturing PMI survey (final)
- Jan 03 Spain Dec unemployment data
- Jan 04 Chancellor Merkel at CDU New Year's reception in Wilhelmshaven
- Jan 04 Eurozone Dec flash HICP
- Jan 04 European Dec services PMI survey (final)
- Jan 05 German Merkel Lower Saxony state election rally Braunschweig
- Jan 09 Eurozone Q3 GDP (3rd estimate)
- Jan 10 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Jan 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E11.5bln
- Jan 16 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Jan 18 Spain T-bill redemption for E5.395bln
- Jan 18 Portugal T-bill redemption for E1.266bln
- Jan 20 German Lower Saxony election
- Jan 21 Eurogroup meeting
- Jan 21 Ireland T-bill redemption for E500mln

[Nowy123]

to troche wzrostow na SP500 przed nami pewnie i pozniej dyskontowanie pod oslabienie PKB i tych cieciach a jeszcze deficyct i limit za 2 miesace

[pr7emo]

wiele platform jeszcze nie odpaliło a oni takie fajerwerki

[Nowy123]

to ruszamy z sprzedawaniem faktow szczegolnie na DAX

[patryk$]

A Twom zdaniem DAX jak się zachowa ? Bo dla mnie to ciągle SELL

[pr7emo]

mi to wygląda że dla zdrowego rozsądku powinno być sell off i gdzieś tak koło 15:00 up średnioterminowe

[Nowy123]

A Twom zdaniem DAX jak się zachowa ? Bo dla mnie to ciągle SELL

mysle ze okazja d osprzedawanie faktow poza tym luka do domkniecia i sa na oporze plus juz szczyt 2008 a gospodarka wdalej w... no ale gieldy wprzedzaja jak sie pojawiac beda dobre dane = dystrybucja

lecz z drugiej strony jest tyle nwydrukowanego papieru pustego Chiny Japonie USa itd czemu nie moze byc wyzej banki maja do tego ze moga rosnac dlugo

[gtc]

kierunek na dziś ..S

[atlanticos]

kierunek na dziś ..S

nie no super...tylko może jeszcze jakaś analiza pod to... czy wróżysz z fusów?

[Coluche]

kierunek na dziś ..S

nie no super...tylko może jeszcze jakaś analiza pod to... czy wróżysz z fusów?

Chopak ma s to jaka tu analiza