DayTrading: Środa 5.12.2012

[crok.]

albo szykuje sie zajebisty boom w dol i tak podciagaja edka bo gieldy runa jak cos nie wymysla z klifem albo to odreagowanie troche po grecyji

[pr7emo]

edek ma jakieś zasilanie na lewo, uważałbym na selle, sam wpadłem w sidła
wydaje mi się że edek dyskontuje jakiś dłuższy skutek, np. wyraźną poprawę na świecie za pół roku, a możliwe negatywne rozstrzygnięcie sprawy klifu wprowadzi tylko podaż do trendu, to znaczy wszystko jest niby ok teraz, spekulacje kongresmanów już miały odzwierciedlenie na rynkach pare razy i się skończyło tak jak agencje, teraz będą się liczyć twarde fakty na papierze if uzgodnią. Ogólnie to mocne kopyto jest na rynkach, w najgorszym wypadku obserwowanym stabilizacja słabych wskaźników, jestem optymistom chociaż tonę w bagnie na edku od 1,2880. Spain rentowność niziutka, niemal nas doganiają (mniej więcej ) a pamiętacie jaki to był niedawno barometr rynków? i niech mi nie dupc*** że "inwestorzy ignorują postęp w sprawie klifu"

[core]

To nie EUR jest mocne, tylko USD się osłabia.

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: Wednesday's European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, with the
release of Spanish October industrial output data offering a further
look at the depth of the recession in Spain. However, the main releases
start from 0813GMT, as eurozone service sector final November PMI
numbers cross the screens. Spanish data is at 0813GMT, Italy at 0843GMT,
France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and the aggregate eurozone PMI is
due at 0858GMT. The UK also sees the release of service sector PMI data,
with the November Markit/CIPS Services release due at 0930GMT. More EMU
data is expected at 1000GMT, with the release of the October retail
trade numbers. Back on the Continent, at 1800GMT, Bundesbank board
member Rudolf Boehmler speaks on the Eurozone crisis, in Mainz, Germany.
At 1830GMT, ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen is slated to
participate in a panel discussion entitled "Commerzbank in Dialogue", in
Brussels.

EUROPE: The WSJ says a number of Europe's biggest lenders are preparing
to repay at least part of their LTRO funds to the ECB at the earliest
opportunity - which comes up in January 2013. The paper picks of on a
poll by Morgan Stanley, which suggests as much as E80 bn being repaid in
2013, with the bulk of funds coming from Northern European banks.



UK:The main focus for UK traders is expected at 1230GMT, when the
Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne presents his latest Autumn
Statement.
With UK growth still sluggish and tax take down, many analysts are
expecting a bleak assessment from the Chancellor, with many suggesting
the "period of austerity" will be extended into 2018. Following the
Chancellors, around 1330GMT, the OBR will release its economic and
fiscal outlook, with the debt Management Office updating any change in
the borrowing remit
UK PRESS: The Guardian says UK bread prices are set to rise, as wheat
prices have been hit hard by the poor weather.

UK PRESS: The number of people employed in the City of London has now
eclipsed the level pre the 20008/9 level, the Independent reports,
citing a survey by Oxford Economics. The report also notes total
employment across London as a whole has also risen has pre-recession
levels.

RATINGS: Moody's has downgraded the standalone bank financial strength rating of
HSBC Bank USA to C-/baa1 from C/a3, and changed the outlook to negative. Moody's
said the downgrade of HSBC USA's standalone rating reflects the company's weak
profitability, which continues to be adversely affected by 1) elevated costs to
resolve regulatory issues and 2) low interest rates, which are depressing its
net interest margin and other profitability metrics.



US: The US calendar gets underway at 1200GMT, when MBA Mortgage
Applications for the November 30 week are released. The US calendar
continues at 1315GMT, with the release of the November ADP National
Employment Report. At 1330GMT, the revised Q3 Non-farm Productivity is
released. Non-farm productivity is expected to be revised up to a 2,8%
rate of growth, as output was revised higher. Unit labor costs are
expected to be revised down to a 1.0% rate of decline as a result. The
November ISM non-manufacturing Index is released at 1500GMT and is
expected to fall to a reading of 53.7 in November after declining to
54.2 in October. As with the manufacturing data, the nonmanufacturing
data is likely to be impacted by the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Also
at 1500GMT, the October Factory Orders numbers will cross the wires. New
orders are expected to fall 0.1% in October. At 1530GMT, EIA Crude Oil
Stocks for the week to November 30 are due.




EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3092 after fading away from a late
recovery high of $1.3108 with corrective dips noticeably continuing to
draw willing buyers. A positive opening in Chinese stocks provided the
early risk on boost, with demand for euro-yen triggering demand in
euro-dollar. A UK clearer was a standout buyer as rate took out reported
barrier interest at $1.310, with triggered stops lifting it on to an
initial high of $1.3117. A dip back to $1.3097 was met by another round
of buying which this time extended the rally to $1.3124, but stronger
defence of a $1.3125 barrier prevented extension. Rate has since drifted
lower, opening into Europe around $1.3109. Eurozone services/composite
PMI's due for release this morning, along with Eurozone retail sales,
but of more interest expected to be provided by today's US ADP jobs
data, ahead of Friday's key US employment report. Eurozone periphery
yields will again be watched. Euro-dollar offers into $1.3125, more
toward the Oct17 high at $1.3140, with another barrier suggested at
$1.3150. Support $1.3090, stronger between $1.3080/70.

EURO-DOLLAR: CitiFX Wire make comment that their overnight skew in Asia
shows a 58% bias of sellers over buyers on a turnover 192% of average
(which suggests that shorts are exposed and possibly open to an upside
squeeze). They go on to comment that a lot was sold but rate holding
firm. Rate currently trades around $1.3117 as it edges back toward
overnight highs at $1.3124. Offers are seen into $1.3125 (weak talk has
suggested barrier interest here), a break to expose the Oct17 high at
$1.3140.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6100 after recovering off a pullback low of
$1.6089 (having seen an intraday high of $1.6131 after benefiting from
outflows of Chf), with sterling retaining an underlying buoyant tone.
A pullback to $1.6094 was quickly greeted by willing buyers The positive
opening in Chinese stocks provided risk with an added boost
into Asian trade with initial demand lifting cable to an early high of
$1.6109. A pullback to $1.6094 was greeted by willing buyers that took
rate back above $1.6100 and on to $1.6119 ($1.6121 76.4% $1.6131-1.6090)
where it has met sell interest placed toward $1.6120. A break here to
expose Tuesday's high at $1.6131 with offers noted from this level and
extending to the $1.6150/60 area, with stops above. Cable demand seen
back at $1.6090/80 ahead of $1.6050. Focus this morning will be on
release of UK services PMI data (0928GMT) though highlight of the day
will be Chancellor Osbornes's Autumn Statement at 1230GMT, though
downward revisions to GDP won't come as a major surprise. Euro-sterling
firm, has extended recovery off stg0.8100 to stg0.8144 in Asia.


YEN: The positive opening in China stocks provided risk with an early
boost into Asian trade with strong demand for euro-yen leading the
moves. Rate bounced off an early low at Y107.14, with stops through
Y107.50 driven by US name buys for a macro account, with US custodial
buys then taking it above Y107.65 before it touched a high of Y107.96.
Corrective pullbacks have remained shallow, the rate trading around
Y107.85 into Europe. Dollar-yen reacted to the euro-yen rally, the move
up from around Y81.80 saw stops triggered on the break of Y82.00, the
added momentum lifting it on to a high of Y82.34. Rate seen trading
around Y82.25 into Europe. Offers in euro-yen seen into Y108.00, with
support noted into Y107.50. Dollar-yen offers remain at Y82.35, with
stronger interest seen into Y82.50. Support Y81.75-60.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Wednesday's
session narrowly mixed. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 3.38 points, or
0.39%, at 9468.84. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was
lower by 0.75 points at 781.22. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks
totalled 987.4 mn shares, with 93 issues higher, 112 lower and 20
unchanged.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in positive territory Wednesday
recovering some of the losses posted during the previous day. Spot gold
ended Tuesday's session $18.45 lower at $1697.55/oz with prices moving
sharply lower after triggering stop loss orders after breaching $1710
and $1705 on the downside. Prices did, however, hold just below key
support at $1692, previously mentioned in Tuesday morning's MNI morning
commodities report. Spot gold made a low of $1690.64 Tuesday, the lowest
level seen since November 6, amid some fund liquidation, whilst options
related selling and stop loss orders also contributed to the precious
metal's decline. This morning, gold prices have pared some of
yesterday's sharp losses although volumes remain thinner than average so
far. Many market participants have moved to the sidelines until further
clarity is established on US fiscal cliff negotiations. Spot gold prices
have advanced back higher this morning, having initially printed a low
of $1697.15/oz, and now trade at $1705/oz, up $7.45, after making a
session high of around $1706.50/oz a few moments ago.


OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading higher Wednesday recovering
some of the losses posted during the previous day. January WTI futures
ended Tuesday's session 59 cents lower at $88.50 a barrel, after trading
in a $87.57 to $89.18 range. Prices had spent the large majority of the
session under pressure amid lingering concerns surrounding the US fiscal
cliff, dampening the demand and outlook for oil. Trading volumes were
light compared to recent levels in what was largely a quiet trading
session. This morning, WTI prices have modestly recovered during Asian
traded hours, advancing from intra-day lows of $88.35 a barrel to highs
of $88.94 a barrel as markets again see a modest rebound in risk
sentiment so far. In terms of supply, focus turns to the release of EIA
Crude Oil Stocks data for the week of November 30, due to be published
later today at 1530GMT. January WTI prices are now consolidating their
earlier move higher, currently trading at $88.79 a barrel, up 29 cents
on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading around
unchanged levels Wednesday after posting some losses the previous day.
January natural gas futures ended Tuesday's session 5.2 cents lower, or
1.4%, at $3.539 per mln British thermal units (Btu) after trading in a
$3.525 to $3.611 range. Prices became subject of some selling pressure
amid some mild weather observed across much of the US this week, that
has in turn slowed demand. MDA Weather Services expects temperatures in
the Northeast and Midwest to remain above normal this week with the
private forecaster seeing cooler conditions, particularly for the
Midwest, next week before readings moderate again to normal or slightly
above normal. January natural gas futures have recovered to just above
unchanged levels this morning after initially slipping to intra-day lows
of $3.507 per mln Btu. Prices recovered to a high of $3.557 and now
currently trade at $3.542 per mln Btu, marginally higher on the session
so far.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EST cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3025, $1.3030, $1.3095, $1.3125
* Dollar-yen; Y81.30, Y81.50, Y82.00(large), Y82.20, Y82.75
* Euro-yen; Y107.00, Y107.90
* Cable; $1.6060, $1.6030
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8100
* Euro-Sek; Sek6.59
* Aussie; $1.0425, $1.0440, $1.0450, $1.0475, $1.0500


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been
completed for this week, with E14.1bln allocated by Germany, Netherlands
France, Belgium, and EFSF compared to E21.1bln allotted last week. To
recap, on Monday Germany sold E2.587bln 6-month Bubill at average yield
-0.0168%. Netherlands then sold E1.27bln 3-month DTC at average yield
-0.034% and E1.11bln 6-month DTC at average yield -0.016%. In the
afternoon, France sold E3.796 3-month BTF at average yield -0.022%,
E1.575bln 6-month BTF at average yield -0.008% and E1.396bln 12-month
BTF at average yield 0.016%. On Tuesday Belgium sold E368mln 3-month
T-bill at average yield -0.029% and sold E554mln 6-month T-bill at
average yield -0.01%. Finally EFSF sold E1.432bln 3-month Bill at
average yield -0.047%. In terms of T-bill issuance planned for next week
we have, France, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Slovenia and Italy and could
total E20.1bln.

SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain kicks off eurozone sovereign supply on
Wednesday with tap of its 3-year benchmark 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono,
off-the-run 4.60% July 2019 Obligaciones and also 10-year benchmark
5.85% Jan 2022 Obligaciones for indicative size of between
E3.5bln-E4.5bln. The size announcement was higher than market
expectations as Spain has already completed its E86bln gross funding
target for 2012 and now pre-funding for 2013. That said, Spanish
yields have been falling in recent weeks with 10-year Bono yield last at
5.238%, having hit 5.15% -- lowest level since Mar 13. This perhaps
suggests lack of auction concession into the sale. The 3.75% Oct 2015
Bono was last sold on Nov 22 for E1.71bln at an average yield of 3.62%
and then covered 2.09 times. The 5.85% 2022 Obligaciones was last sold
on Oct 18 for E1.51bln at an average yield of 5.46% and then covered
1.88 times. The off-the-run 4.60% 2019 was last sold in January 2012 and
therefore not comparable. Auction results are due around 0940GMT.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens its
2-year benchmark 0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz issue Wednesday for up to
E4.0bln. This is the final German bond auction this year and completes
its capital market funding programme for 2012. The issue trades at 0.02%
mid-yield -- well above rich levels of -0.04% traded mid-November. The
key factor underpinning demand is that the issue is the
cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) into the March futures contract and the Schatz
redemption payment for E17.0bln that is due on Dec 14. In addition,
historic results have been impressive. At the inaugural Schatz auction
on Nov 14, E4.323bln was alloted at an average yield -0.02% and
bid-to-cover of 1.9 times, with Buba retaining 13.5% of the sale. Prior
to this it was sold on Oct 17, E4.189bln was alloted at an average yield
0.07%, covered 2.0 times, with Buba retaining 16.2% of the sale. The
average cover ratio of the last 5-auctions is 1.90 times. That said, the
auction comes around 40 mins after Spanish auction - see above. Auction
results due shortly after bidding closes at 1030GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 5 Spain sells 2015-/2019-/2022 bonds for up to E4.5bln
- Dec 5 Ireland presents 2013 budget
- Dec 6 EMU 3Q 2nd estimate GDP data
- Dec 6 ECB meeting, Draghi press conference with staff projections
- Dec 6 Austria debt agency to announce 2013 RAGB issuance plan
- Dec 7 Greek buyback offer closes at 1700GMT; results soon thereafter
- Dec 7 ECB Draghi guest speaker at "Anchor Conference" in Budapest
- Dec 7 Bundesbank to release semi-annual growth forecast for Germany
- Dec 7 German EconMin Roesler speaks at German economic forum
- Dec 11 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills
- Dec 12 Spain requested bank bailout to be disbursed

[ZielonaMgielka]

Co sądzicie o GBPUSD. Ja tam ciągle siedzę na SL i walczę. Na H1 jest trend wzrostowy ale jakiś taki coraz bardziej niemrawy
I coś mi to pachnie głową z ramianami a to może oznaczać zmianę trendu.

Niewiem gdzie Kabel zmierza ale za to wiem gdzie sie prawdopodobnie odbije

http://screencast.com/t/lnlR70NSulZ

Coś chyba zmeczony jestem. Myślisz że odbije w górę?

Hej Robert,

Mysle ze sa na to duze szanse jesli cena tam dotrze.

-- Dodano: 05 gru 2012, 08:14 --

albo szykuje sie zajebisty boom w dol i tak podciagaja edka bo gieldy runa jak cos nie wymysla z klifem albo to odreagowanie troche po grecyji

Albo szykuje sie mocna jazda w gore. Stopki powyzej 1.3150 i 1.3200 sa dobrym miejscem do rozladowania przynajmniej czesci pozycji dlugich. Wyglada na to ze wiekszosc graczy jest zaprogramowana na szukanie gorek na EU

-- Dodano: 05 gru 2012, 08:18 --

To nie EUR jest mocne, tylko USD się osłabia.

Widziales jak wyglada wykres EURAUD EURNZD EURCAD... Mozna odniesc wrazenie ze EUR to najsilniejsza waluta ostatnich dni

[robsoy]

masz sella 1,2880 ? ja otwarłem po 1,3110 i 1,3090 i czekam z jeszcze jednym na 1,3140 a ,że to tylko 2% to będę z boku obserwował obsuwę najpierw na 1,3040 a następnie 1,2980

[Nowy123]

1 h ten klin zwyzkujacy coraz mniej miejsca ma

[zeuss]

dzienny opor przed ceną, czy uda się go pokonać z rozpędu? tego dowiecie się w następnym odcinku

[Nowy123]

[ZielonaMgielka]

Ktory to juz scenariusz na spadki Nowy123?