DayTrading: Wtorek 4.12.2012

[ForumBot]

Zapraszam do wymiany uwag i opinii na temat dzisiejszej sesji.

Pozdrawiam

Pomagamy:

http://www.pajacyk.pl
http://www.polskieserce.pl
http://www.okruszek.org.pl
http://www.sercemichalka.pl

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Regulamin DT:

1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)

Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum

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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GOLD

[Peter_FX]

Co myslicie o USD/CHF?

Jestesmy w strefie popytu tylko brakuje mi jeszcze fakeouta do dolu przed ewentualna podroza na polnoc...

http://screencast.com/t/NOZRsuSPy1Q

Na dziennym USD/CHF przydałoby się domknięcie w końcu tej gapy:



Index Dolara

[molmomas]

a czy nie jest to klin zwyżkujący i dywergencja negatywna

[Adam]

Pod warunkiem że 1,31 na edku wytrzyma a to trzecie uderzenie i może pęknąć a wtedy nici z popytu na frańciszku
a tak w ogóle to może będzie REPEAT MAJA br. rozmarzyłem się na koniec roku

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: Early European data is expected to include German November car
registrations, which are likely to be closely watched after the weak
French data seen Monday. An updated snapshot of the Spanish economy is
expected at 0800GMT, with the release of Spanish November unemployment
data. Also from 0800GMT, EU finance ministers are scheduled to discuss
economic governance issues , bank supervision, bank capital and
securities regulation, in Brussels. Additionally, ECB Governing Council
member Ewald Nowotny is scheduled to speak on the future of Europe, in
Vienna. At 1000GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is slated to give a
speech at the CDU party convention, in Hanover. Also at 1000GMT, EMU
October PPI data will cross the wires. Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves
is slated to speak on "Monetary policy entails a difficult balancing
act" from 1030GMT.

GREECE: Even as the Greek buyback gets underway, the Greek coalition is
continuing to try and find a way through the impasse over the tax bill
still to be passed by Parliament, eKathimerini says. The new tax bill is
a further hurdle needed to meet Troika terms.



UK: In the UK, at 0930GMT, the minutes of the November BOE FPC meeting
are released, along with the November Markit/CIPS Construction PMI.

UK PRESS: Overseas traders at UK christmas markets this year could face a
clamp-down from the taxman trying to maximise VAT take, the Independent
reports.

UK PRESS: UBS is close to a $450 mn settlement with regulators in the UK
and US over the LIBOR-rigging scandal, the Telegraph reports.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3054 after rate had pulled back from a
late session high at $1.3076. Rate nudged higher in early Asian
dealing, pushing up to challenge reported offers placed at $1.3065.
Failure here prompted a corrective pullback, aided by decent euro-yen
sales from Japanese banks, the move down prompting spec longs to cover
back, taking the rate to lows of $1.3046. RBA 25bp cut was as expected
but the hawkish statement which accompanied prompted a quick bounce
higher in Aussie-dollar, which in turn helped euro-dollar to recover
back to retest the $1.3065 level. Offers again thwarted attempts to move
higher and rate settled between $1.3050/60 ahead of the European open.
Asian traders have reported that sell interest seen placed from $1.3065,
with offers dotted through to the next barrier at $1.3100. $1.3115 has
system stops above. Bids remain in place between $1.3050/40 ahead of
$1.3025/20. Eurozone PPI at 1000GMT provides data interest this morning
though main interest will be on Greece/Spain debt developments, with
Eurozone periphery yields having eased in recent sessions.

EURO-DOLLAR: Real money buying cited for the move through the Asian high
at $1.3065 and on to $1.3071. One trader highlights again the downtrend
line drawn off Feb 2012 highs, which he sees coming through around
$1.3070 (noting also Monday's high at $1.3076) and suggests that a clear
break above this trend line could open a move toward $1.3140. Barrier
interest at $1.3100 has attracted sell interest ahead, with more offers
being reported between $1.3120/40.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6095, just off NY traded highs at $1.6116 and
after recovering off a shallow pullback low of $1.6086. Rate extended
its recovery to challenge the $1.6100 level but move met willing sellers
at this level which took rate back to retest that NY pullback low,
posting a session low at $1.6087. The post RBA rate cut bounce in
Aussie-dollar (hawkish statement) provided a fresh boost for risk and
lifted cable to a high of $1.6102. However, headwind sales prevented
rate in building on this move and pressed it back around $1.6095 ahead
of the European open. Offers remain in place between $1.6116/26 (Monday
high/76.4% $1.6310-1.5829 respectively), a break to open a move on
toward $1.6150. Support seen at $1.6085/80 ahead of $1.6050. Trade in
euro-sterling saw this rate consolidate Monday's ease to stg0.8107, with
trade contained by stg0.8108/15. While cable pullbacks remain shallow
seen keeping upside in focus. A light domestic data calendar should
leave rate to take direction from euro-dollar moves, using it as a gauge
for risk.

CABLE: Holding firm, the rate having edged above its Asian high at
$1.6102 and has extended the recovery to $1.6104. Rate currently trades
around $1.6101. Offers seen placed between $1.6116/26 (Monday high/76.4%
$1.6310-1.5829). Stops seen placed above $1.6130, which if triggered to
take rate on to $1.6150.


YEN: Euro-yen came under sell pressure from Japanese accounts into early
Tokyo trade, with traders linking the move to a weak Nikkei opening
which was seen as risk negative. The cross was pressed to a low of
Y107.04, from an opening level Y107.35, but decent demand sitting into
Y107.00 cushioned the move and allowed rate to recover above Y107.30
before settling around Y107.20 into Europe. Dollar-yen was squeezed away
from its NY close at Y82.24, the rate taking direction euro-yen's
slippage and trading to a low of Y82.04 where it met decent demand
sitting between Y82.05/00. Stops below Y82.00 remain in place, a break
to open a deeper move toward Y81.80. Traders note a lot of interest in
expiring barriers between Y82.85-83.50, which, though not expected to be
threatened, could act to pressure the rate lower through the day though
market appears interested in buying into dips.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's
session marrowly mixed. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 25.72 points, or
0.27%, at 9432.46. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was
higher by 0.35 points at 782.06. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks
totalled 851.1 mn shares, with 78 issues higher, 118 lower and 29
unchanged.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading lower Tuesday after posting some slim
gains during the previous day. Spot gold ended Monday's session $1.20
higher at $1716/oz with prices tied to a fairly narrow range for much of
the session. Gold prices have finally fallen back this morning during
the latter part of the Asian session, with some stop loss selling
entering the market after prices breached $1710/oz and also $1705/oz.
Thin market conditions saw gold prices extend lower to an intra-day low
of $1696.78, not helped by the second wave of stops that were tripped
through the break of $1705/oz, with some market participants on the
sidelines ahead of the European opening. Support for the precious metal
is anticipated at around $1692/oz after this morning's technical break
lower. Spot gold prices have stabilised a little after printing session
lows, helped by FX pair euro-dollar which continues to challenge the
$1.3065 area. Spot gold has edged back to now trade at $1704.50/oz, but
remains down $11.50 on the session.


OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading in negative territory
Tuesday, giving back the slim gains posted from the previous day.
January WTI futures ended Monday's session 18 cents higher at $89.09 a
barrel after breaking above $90 a barrel to trade a range between $88.66
and $90.33. Prices reversed their earlier gains after the release of the
Institute of Supply Management index, which showed an unexpected fall to
49.5 in November from a reading of 51.7 in October, reviving concerns
about energy demand. January WTI futures have extended lower during
Asian hours this morning, with Monday's ISM report continuing to take
away the previous bullish momentum from oil markets. January WTI futures
have slipped from an intra-day high of $89.08 a barrel to a session low
of $88.52 and the market now trades at $88.74 a barrel, down 35 cents on
the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading marginally
lower Tuesday after posting their first gain in four sessions the
previous day. January NYMEX natural gas futures ended Monday's session
up 3 cents, or 0.8%, at $3.591 per mln British thermal units (Btu) after
trading in a range of $3.526 and $3.643 per mln Btu. Prices became
subject of some technical buying, after last week's steep slide and some
cooler weather forecasts predicted for next week. January natural gas
futures have corrected back lower during Asian hours this morning,
falling back from a high of $3.611 to an intra-day low of $3.576 and the
market now trades at $3.577 per mln Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EST cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3050
* Dollar-yen; Y81.00(large), Y81.30, Y82.00, Y82.35, Y82.50
Exotic; Barriers Y82.85-83.50 (expiring calls linked at Y81.00 and
Y80.00)
* Euro-yen; Y105.00
* Cable; $1.6000
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8100, stg0.8020
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0500, $1.0325


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Both Belgium and the EFSF come to the Eurozone
soveriegn T-bill market Tuesday. Belgium will be first up with a tap of
3-month Mar 14, 2013 T-bill and a tap of 6-month May 16, 2013 T-bill for
an indicative target range of E0.8-E1.2bln. EFSF then issue up to
E1.5bln in new 3-month Mar 7, 2013 Bill. To recap, on Monday Germany
sold E2.587bln 6-month Bubill at average yield -0.0168%. Netherlands
then sold E1.27bln 3-month DTC at average yield -0.034% and E1.11bln
6-month DTC at average yield -0.016%. In the afternoon, France sold
E3.796 3-month BTF at average yield -0.022%, E1.575bln 6-month BTF at
average yield -0.008% and E1.396bln 12-month BTF at average yield
0.016%.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance this week is scheduled
from France, Germany and Spain -- expected to total E12.5bln vs
E18.84bln last week. Spain kicks off supply on Wednesday with tap of its
3-year benchmark 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono, off-the-run 4.60% July 2019
Obligaciones and also 10-year benchmark 5.85% Jan 2022 Obligaciones for
an expected size of between E2.5bln-E3.5bln. Also on Wednesday, Germany
concludes its 2012 capital issuance programe with re-opening of its
2-year benchmark 0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz issue for up to E4.0bln. France
also concludes its medium-and long-term issuance programme for 2012,
with tap of its off-the-run 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT and 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT
along with its 15-year benchmark 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT issue for
E3bln-E4bln indicative size. Also on Thursday, Austria debt agency
announces its 2013 RAGB issuance plan. In terms of reinvestment flows,
there are no redemptions, and small coupon payment from Belgium for
E0.25bln -- leaves net cash flow negative to the tune of E12.25bln vs
-E17.8bln last week.

BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a
3-month T-bill maturing Mar 14, 2013, and re-open 6-month T-bill
maturing May 16, 2013 for an indicative amount of E0.8-E1.2bln on
Tuesday. This will be first of two taps of the Feb 14 T-bill, and with
only E3.014bln outstanding, demand could be above average. Mid-yield is
seen trading around zero per-cent, while at the last 3-month T-bill
auction on Nov 13 the Belgium Treasury allotted E1.008bln at average
yield -0.004% and covered 4.3 times. As for the 6-month May 16 T-bill,
this will be the last time it is tapped this year and with only
E2.247bln outstanding, could see very high demand. Mid-yield is seen
trading around 0.022%, while at the last 6-month T-bill auction on Oct
16, E1.308bln was allotted at average yield of 0.021% and covered 2.66
times. There will be no T-bill redemption this week, but E5.769bln is
scheduled for next week which is still expected to underpin demand.
Results are due to be announced around 1040GMT.

EFSF BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The European Financial stability
Facility (EFSF) is planning to issue up to E1.5bln in new 3-month Bill
maturing Mar 7, 2013 on Tuesday. The old EFSF 3-month Feb 7, 2013 Bill
mid-yield is currently seen trading around 0.006%, higher than French
BTF with similar maturity. At that last 3-month Bill issuance on Nov 6,
EFSF sold E1.928bln at an average yield -0.0291% and covered 3.0 times.
The recent ratings downgrade by Moody's Investor services, and the
announcement that the Greek debt buy-back will involve a new EFSF
6-month zero coupon note, is not seen as having a negative impact at the
auction. Demand is also seen supported by the fact that there will be a
Bill redemption of E1.997bln on Dec 6. Results are due to be announced
shortly after 1100GMT by Germany's Bundesbank.

[micjat]

niemiaszek skąd Ty to kopiujesz?

[niemiaszek]

skąd Ty to kopiujesz?

poszło info na PW

[sureshot]

londyn od razu z grubej rury, czemu w hiszpanii dane o bezrobociu podaja tak wczesnie??, moze ich tez martwi mala zmiennosc na eu w godzinach porannych )

[zeroo86]

ja tez poprosze o info na priv jezeli mozna. Pozdrawiam

[niemiaszek]

wersja poglądowa AT


04-gru-2012 8:02
MNI EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Studies Stretched/Neutral As Boll Bands Widen
RES 4: $1.3284 High May 1
RES 3: $1.3172 High Sept 17
RES 2: $1.3109 Trendline from Sep 17 high
RES 1: $1.3087 Upper Bollinger Band
LATEST PRICE: $1.3066
SUP 1: $1.2978 23.6% Fibonacci of $1.2662-1.3076
SUP 2: $1.2915/18 55-DMA, 38.2% Fibonacci of $1.2662-1.3076
SUP 3: $1.2856/69 21-DMA, 50.0% Fibonacci of $1.2662-1.3076
SUP 4: $1.2791 200-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar broke above the daily Bollinger band top,
yesterday, but now trades back within. Daily tech studies suggest the
pair is overbought, while fast 10-day Momentum remains neutral. Initial
support seen at $1.2978, the 23.6% Fibonacci of the move higher from
$1.2662 to $1.3076, bears will focus on a break below here. The upper
daily Bollinger band provides initial resistance at $1.3087.


04-gru-2012 8:10
MNI CABLE TECHS: Weekly Studies Bullish As Daily Boll Band Widens
RES 4: $1.6309 2012 high Sep 21
RES 3: $1.6218 High 5 Oct
RES 2: $1.6175/78/96 High Nov 1, High Oct 17, 76.4% of $1.6309-1.5829
RES 1: $1.6113/26 Daily Bollinger band top, 61.8% of $1.6309-1.5829
LATEST PRICE: $1.6096
SUP 1: $1.6049/51 55 and 5-day moving averages
SUP 2: $1.6012 Former 38.2% of $1.6309 to $1.5829
SUP 3: $1.5965/78 21-day moving average, High 22 Nov
SUP 4: $1.5932/54 100-day moving average, 100-week moving average
COMMENTARY: Cable trades towards the daily Bollinger band top, initial
resistance at $1.6113 alongside the 61.8% of $1.6309 to $1.5829. Daily
studies remain bullish, although slow stochastics looks stretched.
Weekly studies are also bullish. Further resistance seen around $1.6175
to $1.6196, the highs of Nov 1 and Oct 17 and the 76.4% of $1.6309 to
$1.5829. Support seen at $1.6049/51, the 55 and 5-day moving averages.


04-gru-2012 8:20
MNI DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Daily Studies Slide, Weekly Studies Stretched
RES 4: Y83.94 High 16 Mar
RES 3: Y83.30 High 2 Apr
RES 2: Y83.13 Resistance line from 6 Apr, 2011
RES 1: Y82.84/85/94 High Nov 22, 38.2% of Y94.99 to Y75.35, High 4 Apr
LATEST PRICE: Y82.12
SUP 1: Y81.76/95 High 20 Nov, 23.6% Fibonacci of Y79.08 to Y82.84
SUP 2: Y81.27 21-day moving average
SUP 3: Y80.96 Kijun Line
SUP 4: Y80.40 38.2% Fibonacci of Y79.08 to Y82.84
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen continues to fade after hitting the recent high
at Y82.84 on Nov 22, initial resistance alongside the 38.2% Fibonacci
ofY94.99 to Y75.35 and the Apr 4 high. Daily tech studies are bearish
while weekly studies remain bullish, albeit near overbought levels.
Initial support seen at Y81.76/95, the Nov 20 high and 23.6% Fibonacci
of Y79.08 to Y82.84. A break and close below here will encourage bears.


04-gru-2012 8:40
MNI EURO-YEN TECHS: Daily Momentum Study Shows Bear Divergence
RES 4: Y111.44 High Mar 21
RES 3: Y108.00 High Apr 20
RES 2: Y107.67 High Nov 30
RES 1: Y107.21 76.4% Fibonacci of Mar/Jul decline
LATEST PRICE: Y107.16
SUP 1: Y106.47/67/74 Tenkan Line, Weekly Ichimoku Cloud top, 100-week MA
SUP 2: Y105.94 23.6% Fibonacci of Y100.33 to Y107.67
SUP 3: Y105.43 Former Sep 17 res line - now support
SUP 4: Y104.71/87 Former 61.8% Mar-Jul fall, 38.2% of Y100.33 to Y107.67
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen now trades above the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly
chart and also the 100-week moving average. Initial support seen at
Y106.47, the daily Tenkan line also Y106.67 and Y106.74, the former
being the weekly Ichimoky cloud top and the latter the 100-week MA.
However, fast 10-day momentum shows bear divergence and daily slow
stochastics looks overbought. Bears look to break below initial support.