DayTrading: Poniedziałek 26.11.2012

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: Once again, the meeting of the Eurogroup will be the main focus
for investors, as finance ministers gather to attempt to bridge an
agreement in order to disburse the next tranche of loan aid to Greece.
Finance ministers held a teleconference on Saturday, with French FinMin
Moscovici saying the group had moved much closer to agreement. Ahead of
the that Brussels gathering, there are some ECB speakers on the schedule
and some second-tier data releases. At 0630GMT, ECB Governing Council
members Erkki Liikanen and Ewald Nowotny are slated to speak at the
European Economic Integration Conference in Helsinki. At 0710GMT, German
GfK Dec consumer confidence data is scheduled for release, with Italian
Nov ISTAT consumer confidence survey due for release at 0900GMT. Back in
Helsinki, at 1000GMT, ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot to speak
at the Conference on European Economic Integration. Further ECB speakers
are expected at 1400GMT, when Vice-President Vitor Constancio is slated
to speak, in Berlin.

GREECE: French FinMin Moscovici told French TV Sunday that eurozone
members were close to a solution omn the Greek debt issue ahead of
today's Eurogroup meet. "I think that in effect we are very close to a
solution, Moscovice told BFM Television.

IRELAND: The Irish Independent says fund manager Franklin Templeton
stand to make as much as E4.75 bn (through maturity) for a "punt" on
Irish bonds that sees the group hold as much as 10% of the State's debt
stock.

SPAIN: Parties favoring independence for Spain's wealthy region of
Catalonia won a convincing majority Sunday in a regional parliamentary
election seen as the first step to a possible referendum on separation
from Madrid, according to Spanish newspaper reports. The
pro-independence parties won 87 seats in the 135 Catalonian parliament,
known as the Generalitat, although the Convergencia i Unio (CiU) party
of Catalan leader Artur Mas suffered a significant setback, winning only
50 seats compared with 62 in the pre-election parliament.

GERMANY PRESS: European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg
Asmussen in a newspaper interview pre-released Sunday said he opposed a
haircut on Greek debt held by the public sector. "In order to close the
financing gap we need a package of measures which contains, amongst
other things, a significant cut of interest rates on the rescue loans
and a bond buyback by Greece," Asmussen told German daily Bild in an
interview to be published in its Monday edition. "A debt haircut is not
part of it," he stressed.

EUROPEAN PRESS: Talks between eurozone finance ministers during a
teleconference on Saturday went smoothly and a number of technical
issues were discussed before the Eurogroup convenes in Brussels later
Monday, Kathimerini reported citing sources at Greece's Finance
Ministry. There was no official statement after Saturday's
teleconference, which lasted about three hours. The ministry sources in
Athens denied there was any disagreements between ministers and insisted
that discussions were on track for Monday's meeting.



UK PRESS: Squeezed UK consumers are set to spend less this Christmas,
the Telegraph reports, citing a study by accountants Deloitte. The
survey suggests spending will increase only 1% this year, a real terms
slide with inflation currently running at 2.7%.

UK PRESS:A survey by the Ernst and Young ITEM Club says UK corporate
investment will not recover to pre-crisis levels until at least 2015,
the Independent reports.

UK PRESS: A report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies are warning the
Chancellor not to use "disingenuous" measures to burnish the books by
using QE revenue to claim fiscal targets are being hit, the Times
reports. The IFS also says the UK's austerity squeeze could last for a
further 8 years as opposed to the current 5 forecast.

UK PRESS: An FT survey shows a change in the shape of the UK jobs
market, as jobs are being created at the top and bottom of the market as
the middle tier lose out. The paper says the process is forming an "hour
glass" economy, as technological innovation eliminates jobs in the
middle that require intermediate skill levels, the paper says.

INDUSTRY NEWS: THe FSA, the UK financial markets regulator, has fined
UBS stg 29.7 bn for irregularities in failing to prevent unauthorised
trading over the recent Kweku Adoboli case.



US: On the other side of the Atlantic, the data will give an early
pointer to the consumer, albeit ahead of the key Holiday shopping
period. At 1430GMT, the MNI Capital Goods Index data for the November 23
week are released, followed at 1530GMT by the MNI Retail Trade Index
for the week ending November 24. Also at 1530GMT, the November Dallas
Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey is released.

US PRESS: Despite some rising consensus on the need for a higher tax
take, the Washington Post says negotiators aiming to avoid the looming
"fiscal cliff" are still "a gulf apart."



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.2972, just off extended rally
highs of $1.2991. Japanese demand for euro-yen into the Tokyo fix sent
this pair through Y107.00, with triggered stops extending move to
Y107.14. This move acted to pull euro-dollar higher, though rate failed
to gain same momentum to challenge its Friday high, the upside pressure
fading around $1.2977. Euro-yen drifted lower post fix, with euro-dollar
again tracking the move as it squeezed down to $1.2951 before settling
around $1.2960 on the run into the European open. Bids are reported in
place into $1.2950, with corporate interest reported sub $1.2890.
Resistance noted from above $1.2990 through to barrier interest at
$1.3000. A reasonably light data calendar (Germany Gfk at 1200GMT)
though today's Eurogroup meeting will grab the main focus with most
expecting a favourable outcome to agreeing release of the next tranche
of Greek aid, despite mixed weekend press reports concerning Greek
haircuts. Catalonia vote at the weekend favoured pro-independence
parties and could put a slight dampener on recent euro gains.

EURO-DOLLAR: Russian names linked to the recovery off early Europe lows
at $1.2944, the rate able to edge back above $1.2960 to currently trade
around $1.2963. Minor offers seen at $1.2970/73, a break to expose the
overnight high at $1.2978 ahead of Friday's high at $1.2991. Strong
offers have been reported in place above $1.2990, extending toward
barrier interest at $1.3000.


CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.6033 after rate had powered higher to
$1.6051 as it played catch-up on euro-dollar's recovery and
euro-sterling's recent rise struggled to build above stg0.8100 (high
Friday stg0.8108, closed stg0.8090). Cable consolidated Friday's move in
Asia with trade contained within a range of $1.6019/38, though rate was
seen sitting heavy on the base of that range into Europe. Euro-sterling
trade was contained by stg0.80825-0.8095, trading around stg0.8088 into
Europe. Cable offers remain in place above $1.6050, with more seen
around the Nov1 high at $1.6075 ahead of $1.6090/00. Support seen into
$1.6000 with stops placed below $1.5990 (50% $1.5927-1.6051). Attention
in the early p[art of the week will be on UK Q3 GDP first revision, due
for release Tuesday. A very light data calendar today with focus on the
Eurogroup meeting with direction to be provided by euro-dollar action.


YEN: Early demand for dollar-yen and euro-yen into the Asian session,
with strong demand interest noted from returning Japanese accounts
(Japan holiday Friday) into the fix, saw dollar-yen push to a high of
Y82.62, while euro-yen targeted the barrier at Y107.00, with stops above
triggered to take this rate on to extended highs of Y107.14. Post fix
and yen regained part of its early losses, dollar-yen drifted off to
Y82.20, euro-yen to Y106.50. Recovery attempts faltered at Y82.38 and
Y106.76 before heavier sales emerged to press rates down to Y82.07 and
Y106.26 respectively. This corrective pullback was seen despite the
release of dovish BOJ Minutes which proposed strengthening the
commitment to the current easing. Dollar-yen support remains in place
toward Y82.00, with Japanese accounts noted buyers into dips. Euro-yen
demand seen into Y106.00.


AUSSIE: RBC Capital analysts note the euro/aussie pair has rallied from a 2.5
month low A$1.2161 on Nov 14 to slightly below A$1.2400 currently but their bias
for the cross is an eventual re-test of the mid-August lows towards A$1.1600
based on both cyclical and structural considerations. According to the analysts,
the euro's rally belies the stark contrast in economic data surprises between
Australia and the eurozone (their Economic Surprise index for Australia hovers
around 4-mo highs while for eurozone it hovers around 4-mo lows). "For EUR/AUD
to sustain recent gains, the balance of data surprises must swing in favour of
EUR, though this seems unlikely as the trend convergence between softening
growth in the core and the periphery becomes entrenched," they say.
Structurally, this week's French downgrade by Moody's highlighted the continued
risk of wholesale downgrades across the region and the ever shrinking pool of
AAA rated issuers, they add. Euro/aussie is now at A$1.2390 vs A$1.2400 early
Sydney.


KIWI: After a hesitant start, the kiwi is now higher at $0.8240 vs $0.8231 early
Sydney as the euro edged higher after a subdued start this week. Risk sentiment
remains slightly on the positive on optimism the eurozone leaders will manage to
strike a deal over the release of Greece's next bailout tranche. No major
economic data release is due locally today, so BNZ currency analyst Mike Jones
expects global factors to continue to dictate direction. A Greek bailout deal
may carry the kiwi higher, Jones says, but adds he expects sellers to be
encountered on any bounces into the $0.8290 to $0.8310 window. All up, he
suspects this week will bring more sideways consolidation in the $0.8115 to
$0.8310 range.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally lower Monday after posting
some decent gains at the tail end of last week. Spot gold ended Friday's
session near its highest level seen since October 12 at $1753/oz after
advancing to a high of $1754.10/oz at one stage, with prices underpinned
by a fall back observed in the US dollar and some options-related
buying. Gold prices have been tied to a tight range during Asian traded
hours this morning with market participants awaiting the outcome of the
eurozone finance minister's meeting on the Greek bailout package. Also
eyed will be Tuesday's survey of US consumer confidence in November,
which could offer clues whether the fiscal cliff jitters are dampening
spirits. Spot gold prices have held in a tight range this morning,
slipping back from a high of $1753.19/oz after printing a session low of
$1745.65/oz. The US dollar has been mixed in Asian trade so far this
morning, marginally firmer against the euro, but reluctant to hold onto
earlier gains against the yen. Spot gold now trades at $1750.30/oz, down
$2.70 on the session.


OIL: January NYMEX WTI prices are trading in marginal negative territory
Monday after posting its best weekly performance in more than a month at
the end of last week. January WTI futures ended Friday's session at
$88.28 a barrel, after trading in a range between $86.71 and $88.53. WTI
prices have been tied to a fairly narrow trading range during Asian
hours so far this morning after Friday's gains. Ongoing tensions remain
in Egypt stoking fears of supply concerns, with Egyptian President
Mohamed Mursi due to meet senior judges today to try to ease a crisis
over his seizure of new powers which has set off violent protests
reminiscent of last year's revolution which brought him to power.
January WTI initially dipped from highs of $88.29 a barrel this morning
to hold at intra-day lows of $87.81 and now trades at $88.04 a barrel,
down 24 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX December natural gas prices are trading lower Monday
after posting some slim losses during the previous trading session. US
December natural gas futures ended Friday's session marginally lower at
$3.901 per million British thermal units (Btu), down 0.2%, after
advancing to $3.933 per mln Btu, the highest level seen since early
November 2011. Prices slipped back from one-year highs Friday after cold
weather forecasts, predicted for this week, were moderated to not
lasting as long as initially thought. December natural gas futures have
gapped lower this morning, paring back from highs of $3.868 to an
intra-day low of $3.830 and now trade at $3.849 per mln Btu, down from
Friday's settlement of $3.901 per mln Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EST cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2925, $1.2900
* Dollar-yen; Y82.00, Y82.50, Y82.75
* Cable; $1.5885
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0300


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign bond issuance this week is
expected to pick-up to E17.5bln vs E8.8bln last week, with Belgium,
Germany, Italy, Slovakia and the Netherlands due to come to the market.
Belgium taps its 3.50% June 2017 OLO63, 4.00% Mar 2019 OLO55, 3.00% Sep
2019 OLO67 and 4.25% Sep 2022 OLO65 issues Monday for E2.2bln-E3.2bln.
In addition, Slovakia conducts a buy-back of the 5.00% 2013 SLOVGB188 on
Monday. On Tuesday, the Netherlands re-open 3-year benchmark 0.75% Apr
2015 DSL for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln. Also on Tuesday, Italy taps its
2-year zero coupon Sep 2014 CTZ for between E2.5bln-E3.5bln and linker
issues -- 2.35% Sep 2019 BTPei and 3.10% Sep 2026 BTPei for between
E500mln-E1.0bln. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens 5-year benchmark Oct
2017 Bobl for up to E3.0bln and Italy conducts its month-end BTP sale on
Thursday. Likely to be tap of 5-year and 10-year BTPs for up to E5.5bln.
In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemptions, and small
coupon payment from Italy for E1.0bln -- leaves net cash flow negative
to the tune of E16.5bln vs -E8.6bln last week.

GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is
planning to issue E3.0bln new 12-month Bubill maturing Nov 27, 2013 on
Monday. This will be the last 12-month Bubill auction for 2012 which
could lead to strong demand as investors continue to look for a safe
haven to invest cash in the short term, despite the increase in optimism
on the resolution for Greek aid. In the grey market, mid-yield on the
new 12-month Bubill is seen trading around -0.0075%. For comparison at
the last 12-month T-bill auction back on Oct 29, the treasury allotted
E1.92bln at an average yield of -0.0095%, cover of 2.4 times, and with
E1.08bln or 36% retained for secondary market operations. At last months
sale the 12-month Eonia rate was around 0.075%, therefore giving a
spread of -8.45bps, currently 12-month Eonia is seen around 0.05%
level. There will no Bubill redemption next week, leaving net cash flow
negative to the tune of E3.0bln. Results due to be announced shortly
after 1030GMT.

BELGIUM AUCTION PREVIEW: The Belgian Debt Agency (DBD) taps its
benchmark 5-year 3.50% June 2017 OLO63, 10-year 4.25% Sep 2022 OLO65
along with off-the-run 4.00% Mar 2019 OLO55, 3.00% Sep 2019 OLO67
issues Monday for E2.2bln-E3.2bln indicative size. This is the final OLO
bond auction for this year, but Belgium has already completed its
E31.5bln OLO issuance funding programme for 2012 and is now pre-funding
for next year. For comparison purposes, the 3.50% 2017 OLO63 was last
sold on Oct 29 for E870mln at an average yield of 1.08% and then covered
1.97 times. The 4.25% 2022 OLO65 trades at 2.29% -- near rich level of
2.223%. In relative value terms, the 10-year OLO is richening vs Bunds
and last at +85bps -- near 1-month low. The 2022 OLO65 was also last
sold on Oct 29 for E1.26bln at an average yield of 2.42% and then
covered 2.24 times. As far as the off-the-runs are concerned, the 3.00%
2019 OLO67 was last sold on Sep 24 & 4.00% 2019 OLO55 was last sold on
Nov 2009 and therefore not comparable. Auction results are due around
1110GMT.

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT)
will issue E3.6-E4.0bln 3-month BTF maturing Feb 28, 2013, issue
E1.2-E1.6bln of a 6-month BTF maturing May 16, 2013, and re-open
E0.8-E1.2bln of a 12-month BTF maturing Nov 14, 2013 on Monday. The new
3-month and 6-month BTFs are likely to see good demand, while the strong
demand seen at last week's 12-month auction looks likely to be repeated
as investment appetite for safe haven products continue. With a BTF
redemption of E6.987bln, net cash flow will be positive to the tune of
E187mln and therefore underlying demand. For comparison on Nov 19, the
AFT sold E3.997bln 3-month BTF at an average yield of -0.016% with cover
of 2.59 times, E1.391bln 6-month BTF at an average yield of -0.009% with
cover of 4.76 times, and E1.595bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of
0.026% with cover of 4.03 times. Results due to be announced around
1355GMT.

[crok.]

1,2865 okolice tam bym zaczekal z buy i potem rura na 1,3050

[molmomas]

na ujpy ciekawie się stao.
zdaje się że longi można podbierać.

[cugan]

Google + Giełda w Egipcie traci 10 proc

Mocny news !!!

[Adam]

na ujpy ciekawie się stao.
zdaje się że longi można podbierać.

Odebrane już w piątek dziś już s jest na plusie jen od 15,11 dał b.dobrze zarobić na wszystkich parach

[harymilloki]

Google + Giełda w Egipcie traci 10 proc

Mocny news !!!

Bardzo prawdopodobny scenariusz.

-- Dodano: pn 26-11-2012, 9:52 --

Jak cisza nagle zapadła.

[molmomas]

widocznie nikt nie czai co się dzieje na rynku albo na hamburgierów czekajo bu edka zjechać fest w dół ...

[bombastik]

Dlaczego uważacie że giełda w Egipcie wpłynie osłabiająco na edka ?

[Nowy123]

Morgan Stanley obniża prognozę dla Polski



Morgan Stanley obniża prognozę polskiego PKB w 2013 roku z 2,1% do 1,5%. W konsekwencji głębszego spowolnienia stopa referencyjna NBP zostania obniżona do 3,25% do połowy przyszłego roku.

[snikers_m]

Napewno wpłynie w jakimś stopniu na S&P 500 wiec eur/usd też powinno zjechać trochę